X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

DraftKings NFL DFS: Week 7 Price Analysis & Picks

Tyler Lockett - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Jon Anderson looks into the NFL DFS projections for week five to pick out some spots to attack and mispriced players for your DraftKings DFS lineups.

Hey, RotoBallers! It's Jon Anderson back for another "primer" for the Sunday NFL slate. I have had a good amount of fun looking back at this post on Saturday/Sunday to see how many of the plays the projections point out early in the week actually make it into a reasonable "tight player pool" for Sunday's slate. It has been okay, but I will admit it's been far from great.

The point of this article is not really to give you picks but to set the stage for the week and pick out those obviously mispriced players, as this is the best thing projections can do for us. I don't think it's profitable to build a lineup based on these picks, and certainly not this early in the week. You should be focusing heavily on game environments and correlations when building lineups, and this post doesn't really give you that. It's just a table-setter to look at the slate from a high level and pick out these mid-priced players. I hope it is helping, and I will continue to make it stronger as we move forward.

We are looking at the DraftKings NFL DFS main slate on Sunday, October 23rd. Here we go!

Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 50% off using code SUMMER! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Game Environments

Top over/unders:

  • SEA @ LAC: 51.5 points
  • SF @ KC: 48 points
  • DAL @ DET: 48 points
  • CIN @ ATL: 47.5 points
  • CLE @ BAL: 46.5 points

After those games, we go the whole way down to 42.5 as the next highest, so we can really gravitate toward these five games.

The second game listed there is a bit less interesting for DFS, I think, since the 49ers defense is tough, they play really slow, and the Chiefs offense doesn't really have that "can't miss" DFS guy this year as they've spread the ball around so much. That said, that game does have the tightest spread (three points) of the group, so you could potentially see some fireworks there if the 49ers are able to run the ball efficiently.

The game of the week would appear to be Seahawks and Chargers. Seattle's defense is third-worst in the league in yards allowed per play, and the Chargers can certainly score points in bunches. The Chargers defense is more middle-of-the-pack, which is to say that it's not a shutdown unit that you could absolutely see the Seahawks putting up some points against.

The Cowboys should be getting Dak Prescott back, which maybe doesn't change their fantasy projection a ton since Cooper Rush was doing a fine job - but I think it does raise their ceiling a bit - and they get the best matchup in the league as the Lions are the worst defense in the league by yards per play. Let's get into these specific position pools.

 

DraftKings NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Top Raw Projections

Player Salary Opponent Projection
Lamar Jackson $8,000 CLE 24.6
Patrick Mahomes $7,800 SF 23.2
Tom Brady $6,300 CAR 21.4
Justin Herbert $7,200 SEA 20.2
Aaron Rodgers $6,000 WAS 19.3

 

Top Values

Player Salary Opponent Projection
Daniel Jones $5,100 JAX 17.9
Geno Smith $5,600 LAC 19.2
Tom Brady $6,300 CAR 21.5
Aaron Rodgers $7,200 WAS 19.3
Lamar Jackson $8,000 CLE 24.6

 

Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts are off the slate, and Mahomes is in a spot that is hard to love. That makes it a pretty nice week to pay down for one of these guys in the second table.

Geno Smith has gone for 17, 6, 22, 35, 24, and 13 fantasy points this year. He has averaged a handful of carries every week and does have two games above 40 rushing yards, giving him a bit more of a floor. The risk with him is that he doesn't hit on any of these long pass attempts, which we saw happen last week. I think he's the top pay play on the board given the game environment and the ceiling he brings - that price seems like it should be much higher.

The other considerable option is, once again, Daniel Jones. He has gone over 20 DraftKings points just once this year, but he has at least reached a dozen points in every game this year despite playing some tough defenses. He has rushed the ball 6, 10, 9, 6, 10, and 6 times - and he gets a decent matchup here against the Jaguars. The ceiling is questionable, but the floor seems steady enough and paying just $5,100 for your quarterback really opens a lot of things up.

If you don't want to pay down, the guy is pretty clearly Lamar Jackson. I don't think anybody matches his floor in this spot, and he has as much ceiling as anybody.

 

DraftKings NFL DFS Running Backs

Top Raw Projections

Player Salary Opponent Projection
Saquon Barkley $7,900 JAC 21.3
Austin Ekeler $8,300 SEA 20.8
Christian McCaffrey $8,400 TB 19.7
Leonard Fournette $7,700 CAR 19.2
Joe Mixon $7,000 ATL 18.3

 

 Top Values

Player Salary Opponent Projection
Saquon Barkley $7,900 JAC 21.3
Kenneth Walker $5,800 LAC 15.2
Joe Mixon $7,000 ATL 18.3
Leonard Fournette $7,700 CAR 19.2
Austin Ekeler $8,300 SEA 20.8

 

Barkley tops both tables here as the highest projection and the best per-dollar projection. He has rushed for at least 70 yards in each game, and is averaging more than 100 yards per game while adding 21 catches in six games. He has scored four touchdowns, which actually feels a little light. The Jaguars' defense has been strong against the run overall but has given up two big games so far

They haven't given up a ton of rushing volume other than that. Austin Ekeler ran the ball just four times in the Chargers game against the Jaguars, but he did have a nice game through the air there catching eight passes. Barkley's damage is done in the pass game and the run game, and few running backs on this slate match his volume projection.

Maybe you can make a better case for Austin Ekeler, who is in the highest projected game of the week - but his price has come the whole way up to $8,300. He has three games now with eight or more catches, and has scored 141 DraftKings points in his six games for an average of 23.5. He's a great play, but the price may be a bit prohibitive here.

The cheap running back to go for would be Kenneth Walker. Walker garnered some ownership last week, but it was a bit muted because of all of the other options. It is unlikely that we see that many options again here, which should make Walker pretty chalky after his 19 point performance last week. The hole you can poke there is that he earned just three targets last week, hauling in two of them for just 13 yards - but he did run 15 routes to lead the team's running backs in the passing game. He is too cheap and is a tough fade in cash games.

You can make a compelling case for the tournament pivot off of Ekeler/Barkley to Christian McCaffrey, who will face a Bucs team which has been known to push opponents to the air. CMC has 9, 7, and 7 catches in his last three games and has scored at least 15 DraftKings points every single week this year - however, he has gone over 25 just one time. The ceiling game hasn't happened yet for CMC, and he has just three touchdowns in six games as the Panthers have struggled to move the ball. I would stick to Ekeler for cash games, but will definitely have some CMC in tournaments.

 

DraftKings NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Top Raw Projections

Player Salary Opponent Projection
Deebo Samuel $7,600 KC 18.6
Mike Williams $7,200 SEA 18.2
Ja'Marr Chase $8,200 ATL 18.1
DK Metcalf $6,600 LAC 18.1
Tyler Lockett $5,800 LAC 16.9

 

 Top Values

Player Salary Opponent Projection
Tyler Lockett $5,800 LAC 16.9
DK Metcalf $6,600 LAC 18.1
Zay Jones $4,400 NYG 11.8
Courtland Sutton $6,200 NYJ 16.6
Marquez Valdes-Scantling $4,400 SF 11.6

 

We really have to get wide receiver right to profit in today's game, and wide receiver seems a bit tough this week. There is no Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, or Justin Jefferson on the slate - taking away a lot of those high priced guys we usually consider week-to-week.

The Seahawks duo really stands out here. Metcalf (28%) and Lockett (24%) have taken up more than half of the Seahawks targets, and they are high-value targets as well with Metcalf earning an 11.0 ADoT and Lockett beating that at 13.1 yards. Neither guy did much in a good spot last week, which has left their prices where they are - they both seem underpriced, especially with Lockett.

The top projection right now is Deebo, but man is that guy hard to trust for DFS purposes. He has games with "only" 16, 13, 15, 13, and 11 fantasy points this year along with one spike game up to 27. The upside is huge with his big-play ability, but his floor is notoriously low for what he costs.

I would lean toward Ja'Marr Chase if paying up. He has earned 16, 9, 10, 6, 12, and 10 targets this year but his catch rate (62%) has been lower than expected and he has hit the 100-yard bonus just once despite racking up 558 air yards on his 8.9 ADoT on the year. He will have some massive games this year, and there's a pretty good chance we hit one of those this week against the Falcons who have given up the league's second-most pass attempt this year.

 

DraftKings NFL DFS Tight Ends

Top Raw Projections

Player Salary Opponent Projection
Mark Andrews $7,400 CLE 20.1
Travis Kelce $8,000 SF 18.4
George Kittle $5,300 KC 12.2
Kyle Pitts $4,300 CIN 11.4
Gerald Everett $4,000 SEA 9.7

 

 Top Values

Player Salary Opponent Projection
Mark Andrews $7,400 CLE 20.1
Kyle Pitts $4,300 CIN 11.4
Gerald Everett $4,000 SEA 9.7
Evan Engram $3,300 NYG 8.0
Travis Kelce $8,000 SF 18.4

 

Mark Andrews is essentially just a stud receiver that you can play in the tight end position. He is third in the league in touchdowns (5), fifth in the league in air yards (630), and ninth in the league in targets (57). We would certainly be considering him against Cleveland if he were a wide receiver, which means we should consider him even more seriously given how much of an edge he gives you at the tight end position.

If we aren't paying up for Andrews, there are some options. Gerald Everett is averaging six targets per game and has this great matchup with Seattle, although the potential return of Keenan Allen could put a dampener on that idea. Kyle Pitts stands out a little bit here, although he's hard to trust as he's averaged just five targets and 34 yards per game. That's not getting it done.

One guy that didn't make the table above is Greg Dulcich ($2,500), the Broncos tight end who ran 27 routes and caught two passes including a long touchdown last Monday Night. He saw a bigger role there and since it was Monday Night, the price did not come off the stone-minimum. We need to wait to see how the Broncos are shaping up for Sunday, but if we project Dulcich for that kind of usage again he's a decent punt play.

 

That's all I've got to offer here, I hope this helps start off your week's research - I wish you all the best!

 



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tyrion Davis-Price

Titans Waive Tyrion Davis-Price
Tre Harris

Chargers Relying on Tre Harris to Be Starting X Receiver
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Micah Parsons

Will Become Highest-Paid Non-QB
MarShawn Lloyd

Vying for RB2 Role
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith Finds End Zone in First Training Camp Practice
Tyler Shough

Pushing for Fully Guaranteed Rookie Deal
Ar'Darius Washington

Goes on PUP List
Lamar Jackson

to be Even Better in 2025?
Tre Harris

Agrees to Terms on Rookie Deal
Justin Herbert

Off to Good Start at Training Camp
Jameson Williams

Earning Rave Reviews from Lions Coaches
Christian Mahogany

Expected to Start for Lions
Zach Allen

an Extension Candidate in Denver?
Zaire Franklin

May Miss Start of Training Camp
Portland Trail Blazers

Damian Lillard Returning to Portland
Mason Taylor

to Play "Crucial" Role in Jets' Offense
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
T.J. Watt

Once Again Becomes Highest-Paid Non-QB
RJ Harvey

Reaches Agreement on Four-Year Rookie Contract
Rashee Rice

Chiefs Believe Rashee Rice Will Receive Two- to Four-Game Suspension
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jack Kiser

Inks Rookie Deal With Jaguars
Mike Green

Expected to Sign Rookie Deal with Ravens on Thursday
Mike Williams

Retiring After Eight NFL Seasons
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Hit In Pinky In All-Star Game, X-Rays Negative
MLB

NL All-Stars Win On Tie-Breaker Home Run Swing-Off
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Oneil Cruz

Ties Home Run Derby Distance Record
Cal Raleigh

Wins 2025 Home Run Derby
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Michael Lorenzen

Royals Put Michael Lorenzen on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Junior Tafa

Unsuccessful in his Light-Heavyweight Debut
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tosses Gem Against Giants
Shota Imanaga

Shuts Down Yankees on Sunday
Nathan Eovaldi

Dominant Again in Seventh Win
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF