October 18, 2022

Jon Anderson looks into the NFL DFS projections for week five to pick out some spots to attack and mispriced players for your DraftKings DFS lineups.

Hey, RotoBallers! It's Jon Anderson back for another "primer" for the Sunday NFL slate. I have had a good amount of fun looking back at this post on Saturday/Sunday to see how many of the plays the projections point out early in the week actually make it into a reasonable "tight player pool" for Sunday's slate. It has been okay, but I will admit it's been far from great.

The point of this article is not really to give you picks but to set the stage for the week and pick out those obviously mispriced players, as this is the best thing projections can do for us. I don't think it's profitable to build a lineup based on these picks, and certainly not this early in the week. You should be focusing heavily on game environments and correlations when building lineups, and this post doesn't really give you that. It's just a table-setter to look at the slate from a high level and pick out these mid-priced players. I hope it is helping, and I will continue to make it stronger as we move forward.

We are looking at the DraftKings NFL DFS main slate on Sunday, October 23rd. Here we go!

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Game Environments

Top over/unders:

• SEA @ LAC: 51.5 points
• SF @ KC: 48 points
• DAL @ DET: 48 points
• CIN @ ATL: 47.5 points
• CLE @ BAL: 46.5 points

After those games, we go the whole way down to 42.5 as the next highest, so we can really gravitate toward these five games.

The second game listed there is a bit less interesting for DFS, I think, since the 49ers defense is tough, they play really slow, and the Chiefs offense doesn't really have that "can't miss" DFS guy this year as they've spread the ball around so much. That said, that game does have the tightest spread (three points) of the group, so you could potentially see some fireworks there if the 49ers are able to run the ball efficiently.

The game of the week would appear to be Seahawks and Chargers. Seattle's defense is third-worst in the league in yards allowed per play, and the Chargers can certainly score points in bunches. The Chargers defense is more middle-of-the-pack, which is to say that it's not a shutdown unit that you could absolutely see the Seahawks putting up some points against.

The Cowboys should be getting Dak Prescott back, which maybe doesn't change their fantasy projection a ton since Cooper Rush was doing a fine job - but I think it does raise their ceiling a bit - and they get the best matchup in the league as the Lions are the worst defense in the league by yards per play. Let's get into these specific position pools.

DraftKings NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Top Raw Projections

Top Values

Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts are off the slate, and Mahomes is in a spot that is hard to love. That makes it a pretty nice week to pay down for one of these guys in the second table.

Geno Smith has gone for 17, 6, 22, 35, 24, and 13 fantasy points this year. He has averaged a handful of carries every week and does have two games above 40 rushing yards, giving him a bit more of a floor. The risk with him is that he doesn't hit on any of these long pass attempts, which we saw happen last week. I think he's the top pay play on the board given the game environment and the ceiling he brings - that price seems like it should be much higher.

The other considerable option is, once again, Daniel Jones. He has gone over 20 DraftKings points just once this year, but he has at least reached a dozen points in every game this year despite playing some tough defenses. He has rushed the ball 6, 10, 9, 6, 10, and 6 times - and he gets a decent matchup here against the Jaguars. The ceiling is questionable, but the floor seems steady enough and paying just $5,100 for your quarterback really opens a lot of things up.

If you don't want to pay down, the guy is pretty clearly Lamar Jackson. I don't think anybody matches his floor in this spot, and he has as much ceiling as anybody.

DraftKings NFL DFS Running Backs

Top Raw Projections

 Top Values

Barkley tops both tables here as the highest projection and the best per-dollar projection. He has rushed for at least 70 yards in each game, and is averaging more than 100 yards per game while adding 21 catches in six games. He has scored four touchdowns, which actually feels a little light. The Jaguars' defense has been strong against the run overall but has given up two big games so far

• Miles Sanders: 134 yards on 27 carries, two TD
• Dameon Pierce: 99 yards on 26 attempts, 1 TD

They haven't given up a ton of rushing volume other than that. Austin Ekeler ran the ball just four times in the Chargers game against the Jaguars, but he did have a nice game through the air there catching eight passes. Barkley's damage is done in the pass game and the run game, and few running backs on this slate match his volume projection.

Maybe you can make a better case for Austin Ekeler, who is in the highest projected game of the week - but his price has come the whole way up to $8,300. He has three games now with eight or more catches, and has scored 141 DraftKings points in his six games for an average of 23.5. He's a great play, but the price may be a bit prohibitive here.

The cheap running back to go for would be Kenneth Walker. Walker garnered some ownership last week, but it was a bit muted because of all of the other options. It is unlikely that we see that many options again here, which should make Walker pretty chalky after his 19 point performance last week. The hole you can poke there is that he earned just three targets last week, hauling in two of them for just 13 yards - but he did run 15 routes to lead the team's running backs in the passing game. He is too cheap and is a tough fade in cash games.

You can make a compelling case for the tournament pivot off of Ekeler/Barkley to Christian McCaffrey, who will face a Bucs team which has been known to push opponents to the air. CMC has 9, 7, and 7 catches in his last three games and has scored at least 15 DraftKings points every single week this year - however, he has gone over 25 just one time. The ceiling game hasn't happened yet for CMC, and he has just three touchdowns in six games as the Panthers have struggled to move the ball. I would stick to Ekeler for cash games, but will definitely have some CMC in tournaments.

DraftKings NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Top Raw Projections

 Top Values

We really have to get wide receiver right to profit in today's game, and wide receiver seems a bit tough this week. There is no Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, or Justin Jefferson on the slate - taking away a lot of those high priced guys we usually consider week-to-week.

The Seahawks duo really stands out here. Metcalf (28%) and Lockett (24%) have taken up more than half of the Seahawks targets, and they are high-value targets as well with Metcalf earning an 11.0 ADoT and Lockett beating that at 13.1 yards. Neither guy did much in a good spot last week, which has left their prices where they are - they both seem underpriced, especially with Lockett.

The top projection right now is Deebo, but man is that guy hard to trust for DFS purposes. He has games with "only" 16, 13, 15, 13, and 11 fantasy points this year along with one spike game up to 27. The upside is huge with his big-play ability, but his floor is notoriously low for what he costs.

I would lean toward Ja'Marr Chase if paying up. He has earned 16, 9, 10, 6, 12, and 10 targets this year but his catch rate (62%) has been lower than expected and he has hit the 100-yard bonus just once despite racking up 558 air yards on his 8.9 ADoT on the year. He will have some massive games this year, and there's a pretty good chance we hit one of those this week against the Falcons who have given up the league's second-most pass attempt this year.

DraftKings NFL DFS Tight Ends

Top Raw Projections

 Top Values

Mark Andrews is essentially just a stud receiver that you can play in the tight end position. He is third in the league in touchdowns (5), fifth in the league in air yards (630), and ninth in the league in targets (57). We would certainly be considering him against Cleveland if he were a wide receiver, which means we should consider him even more seriously given how much of an edge he gives you at the tight end position.

If we aren't paying up for Andrews, there are some options. Gerald Everett is averaging six targets per game and has this great matchup with Seattle, although the potential return of Keenan Allen could put a dampener on that idea. Kyle Pitts stands out a little bit here, although he's hard to trust as he's averaged just five targets and 34 yards per game. That's not getting it done.

One guy that didn't make the table above is Greg Dulcich ($2,500), the Broncos tight end who ran 27 routes and caught two passes including a long touchdown last Monday Night. He saw a bigger role there and since it was Monday Night, the price did not come off the stone-minimum. We need to wait to see how the Broncos are shaping up for Sunday, but if we project Dulcich for that kind of usage again he's a decent punt play.

That's all I've got to offer here, I hope this helps start off your week's research - I wish you all the best!

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