December 6, 2022

Jon Anderson looks into the NFL DFS projections for week 14 to pick out some spots to attack and mispriced players for your DraftKings DFS lineups.

Hey, RotoBallers! It's Jon Anderson back again to open up the week 14 DFS slate! If you're new here, this is not meant to be a definitive "picks" article, but just a first look to point out the best game environments and best projections and value plays. Quite often, by Sunday I'm not on all of the plays I start with here, but it does set the table for the rest of the week of search.

Again, I don't think it's profitable to build a lineup based on these picks, and certainly not this early in the week. You should be focusing heavily on game environments and correlations when building lineups, and this post doesn't really give you that. It's just a table-setter to look at the slate from a high level and pick out these mid-priced players. I hope it is helping, and I will continue to make it stronger as we move forward.

We are looking at the DraftKings NFL DFS main slate on Sunday, December 11th. Here we go!

Game Environments

Teams not on the slate

• Atlanta (bye)
• Chicago (bye)
• Green Bay (bye)
• Indianapolis (bye)
• New Orleans (bye)
• Washington (bye)
• Miami (SNF)
• LA Chargers (SNF)
• LA Rams (TNF)
• Las Vegas (TNF)
• New England (MNF)
• Arizona (MNF)

So that's as long of a list as you'll find as we wrap up the season's bye weeks. Here are best game environments for Sunday:

1. MIN@DET, 54 O/U, 2 point spread
2. CLE@CIN, 48 O/U, 6 point spread
3. PHI@NYG, 46 O/U, 7 point spread
4. HOU@DAL, 45 O/U, 17 point spread

That makes Minnesota @ vs. Detroit a game that stands out head and shoulders above the rest. The game total is a full touchdown above the rest, and the Lions and Vikings rank 2nd and 3rd in fantasy points allowed this year while also having more than competent offenses. That game should be a shootout. Let's get into the projections and some early-week ideas about what to do at each position.

DraftKings NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Top Raw Projections

Top Values

Thoughts on the expensive options:

• Patrick Mahomes is a pretty easy fade as there's just no chance the Broncos can push him at all, and their defense has performed relatively well.
• Jalen Hurts has been amazing, scoring over 30 points in his last two games and not coming in under 20 points since week six (he's only done that twice all year). The Giants are in the bottom third of the league in terms of QB scoring against, but I'm not sure that really matters with Hurts. You can play his rock-solid floor, but I much prefer the next guy here.
• Josh Allen scored ~only~ 24.8 points the first time he faced off against the Jets. The Bills will certainly want to win this game handily after they were beaten by the Jets in that game, and the Jets offense is running more better now with Mike White at the helm, so you can make a good case for Allen's floor and ceiling here, but it's not a lock button spot.

We have a whole host of nice cheap options here. Kirk Cousins is in the week's top game environment. That pushes his projection upwards, but he hasn't shown a good ceiling this year (he hasn't been able to exceed 30 points a single time) and he does not run with the ball). On the other side of that is Jared Goff, who is much like Cousins, going over 30 points just once and haveing plenty of really bad games along the way.

The other low-cost option not shown above is Tyler Huntley, who runs the ball a bunch when he gets the opportunity (ran it 10 times for 41 yards on his 59 snaps last week). He faces the Steelers' defense, which is a solid unit now with TJ Watt back, but they are nothing to necessarily shy away from. I like him as the low-cost floor option, but the ceiling is pretty low there I think.

The mid-range option is Dak Prescott. The Cowboys get the lowly Texans, so they will certainly score some points - but if the first couple of touchdowns come on rushes by Ezekiel Elliott and/or Tony Pollard, Dak probably won't be having a huge game since the Texans just aren't going to be able to score points against this Cowboys defense.

My cash game preference will be Josh Allen, but here's how I'd rank the plays on a per-dollar basis:

1. Josh Allen
2. Tyler Huntley
3. Kirk Cousins
4. Jared Goff
5. Dak Prescott

DraftKings NFL DFS Running Backs

Top Raw Projections

 Top Values

Thoughts on the expensive options:

• McCaffrey had a big game in week 13, scoring 28.6 points. It still feels thin to play him at $8,500 since he has exceed 25 points just twice in his last eight games and just doesn't have the same weekly 25-touch role that he had in the past.
• Dalvin Cook is probably the top play at the position against the Lions. He has 42 carries and eight targets in the last two weeks, but his price has stayed outside of the top range because of his lack of touchdowns (just two rushing TD in his last five games, and one receiving touchdown all year. He's still dominating the touches even though Alxander Mattison cultured a touchdown from him last week.
• Derrick Henry is a fine GPP option, but like usual we can't trust him in cash given how touchdown-dependent he is.

The value plays:

• D'Andre Swift carried the ball 22 times last week and earned six targets, finally reclaiming his RB1 role in that offense. There is no guarantee that we will see a repeat of that in week 14, but he is one of the most electric ball carriers in the league in the top game environment with a price tag under $6,000. Huge possibilities there, but not without some risk.
• Jerick McKinnon stands out here by the projection after he has scored double-digit fantasy points in three of his last five. The floor is near zero, but he does get a lot of targets and he is operating in a "1a" role with Isiah Pacheco ever since Clyde Edwards-Helaire hit the IR. I wouldn't make this play, but if you really, really need a cheap RB, he has a half-decent floor for the tag.
• The Seahawks RB situation is one to monitor. Both Kenneth Walker and DeeJay Dallas got hurt last week. The projections are assuming Dallas plays and Walker sits, but we really don't have any idea about that yet.

The Cowboys' RBs are basically in a straight split, which has kept their projections down, but Tony Pollard is awful tempting at $6,700. The Cowboys are primed to score 4+ touchdowns in this game, and Pollard has six rushing touchdowns over his last five games, and he has played more than before in the red zone as well (he has four of the 13 red zone carries over the last three weeks since Elliott has returned). 15 touches feels very likely here, and his big-play upside is huge against this weak Houston defense.

My top plays:

1. Dalvin Cook
2. D'Andre Swift
3. Tony Pollard
4. Seattle RB
5. Derrick Henry

DraftKings NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Top Raw Projections

 Top Values

It has been profitable this year to live in the mid-range at WR, as there have been so many standout performances in that range, but this week it's going to be tough to get away from Justin Jefferson in Detroit. He is clear #1 play (I really don't agree with the Diggs projection here as the Jets have been very strong against top wide receivers this year).

If you can't get there, then CeeDee Lamb is a fine consolidation prize. He has scored 41, 10, 21, and 20 DraftKings points over the last four weeks and the Texans just really don't have an answer for him. The risk is that he doesn't get a piece of the first couple of touchdowns and then the Cowboys just play the "run out of the clock" game in the second half, but the floor is still very strong for him as he's averaging more than nine targets per game this year.

Amon-Ra St. Brown's price is creeping up, but it's still not high enough. He has 10, 9, 11, 8, 10, and 12 targets over the last six games and has exceeded 30 DraftKings points in both of the last two weeks.

One guy not making it here that should be is Garrett Wilson. In these last two games with Mike White as the starting QB, he has 23 targets and 257 yards, scoring 26.4 and 27.2 DraftKings points in those two games. He is still priced below $6,000 - I don't see how you get away from that role for that price even given the tougher matchup with Buffalo.

My top plays:

1. Justin Jefferson
2. Amon-Ra St. Brown
3. Garrett Wilson
4. CeeDee Lamb
5. DJ Chark

DraftKings NFL DFS Tight Ends

Top Raw Projections

 Top Values

The five top projections here are also the top per-dollar plays. I don't think Kelce is a cash play for the same reason I don't think Mahomes is one. Schultz is a strong play there with 7, 8, 5, 4, and 6 targets over his last five games, and his Cowboys are in a great spot. George Kittle is considerable at a shockingly low price of $4,300 - but all things considered, it's another tough week for tight end decisions.

A couple of other names to consider:

• Chigoziem Okonkwo is just $2,7o0 and played a season-high 31 snaps and ran a season-high 20 routes in week 13. He is a really great athlete and has earned five targets in each of his lats two games despite sharing the role with Austin Hooper. His floor is incredibly low, but I like the upside for the very low price.
• Greg Dulcich continues to be a key factor in the Broncos' pass attack, it's just unfortunate that the Broncos' pass attack just does not work at all. He earned eight targets last week and hauled in six fo them for 85 yards. He certainly has a strong ceiling here.

My Top Plays:

1. Dalton Schultz
2. Greg Dulcich
3. George Kittle
4. T.J. Hockenson
5. Travis Kelce

That's it, we've opened the can of another tough Sunday NFL DFS slate. I hope it helps, but remember to keep checking back all week long for more NFL DFS picks and analysis right here on RotoBaller!

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