RADIO
The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on June 12th, 2019. Austyn Varney's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Welcome to Wednesday baseball! We have four early games with a game in Coors Field. If you're up early, it's a fun little slate to get the blood pumping. The Cubies are looking like the cash game stack there. We then have eight main games to look at, with plenty of pitching and hitting to consider. Verlander is up in rotation, but are the Brewers too tough against righties? There's quite a few talented arms for just an eight game slate, but it's balanced out by a dual between David Hess and Edwin Jackson (11 O/U). Let's dive in head first to this slate and see what we come up with!
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 6/12/19. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays.
You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like FanDuel, and other sports too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @VarneyDFS.
Featured Promo! Save 50% on any PGA Premium Pass using discount code MASTERS, this week only! Win more with our DFS and Betting Packages, get expert tools and advice from proven winners including the Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, betting/props cheat sheet and more. GAIN FULL ACCESS HERE
DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Jose Berrios MIN vs. SEA ($10,300)
The four most expensive pitchers are all in play. Justin Verlander is easily the most talented arm on the slate, but has a tough match-up against a Brewers squad that brutalizes right-handed pitching. You then have Mike Soroka, Berrios, and Joey Lucchesi, who are all good pitchers in somewhat solid matchups. We’ll go with Jose Berrios, who faces off against a Mariners team that can go cold and strikeout (27%). Berrios is having his best season to date, sporting a sub .290 wOBA against both sides of the plate and striking out 9 batters per nine innings. The Mariners are a volatile offense to target, but the 8-10 expected strikeouts should weather any damage the M’s do.
Miles Mikolas STL @ MIA ($7,200)
Miles Mikolas was knocked around by the Cubs, but that was a predictably tough matchup. Mikolas is a pitcher who struggles against lefties and pitches to contact. He now gets to face off against the Miami Marlins, who rank dead last in baseball against right-handers with a measly team .268 wOBA. We saw Dakota Hudson stifle this lineup just last night and Mikolas is a comparable arm. The Cardinals will let him go over 100 pitches and the win should be safe with a guy making his debut on the other side. He's affordable on DraftKings and an elite SP2.
DraftKings DFS Infielders
1B - Alex Avila ARI @ PHI (Zach Eflin) ($3,700)
Catcher is never an easy spot to fill, and tonight is no exception. We're missing Gary Sanchez and without a clear pivot, we'll look to save some funds. Alex Avila has always hit righties well (.356 wOBA) and he's swinging a hot stick for the D-Backs. Assuming he gets the start, he'll hit sixth or seventh and have plenty of RBI opportunities. Eflin has a lot of talent, but he struggles against lefties and gives up a ton of homers. He's only $3,700 on DK and makes for a great play in all formats.
1B - Justin Smoak TOR @ BAL (David Hess) ($4,800)
This game between the Blue Jays and Orioles is one we want to be all over. Without a game in Coors Field, an 11 over/under is something to pay attention to. The Blue Jays are slight favorites and Vegas has them putting up 5.68 projected runs. The highest on this entire slate. Justin Smoak has sported a .391 wOBA against righties and has hit 11 of his 12 home runs from the left side of the plate. We'll get to David Hess in a bit, but just know he's one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Rowdy Tellez is also in play for much cheaper, and it just depends on how your roster construction is. If you have the money, Smoak is the top play at first base.
2B - Whit Merrifield KC vs. DET (Daniel Norris) ($4,800)
The Royals aren’t the most explosive offense out there, but do have some power and support it with nickel and diming you. They face off with Daniel Norris tonight, who’s been brutalized by right-handers. On the season, he’s allowed nine home runs in 50 innings and a 4.91 xFIP. The Royals are expected to put up close to five runs and Merrifield will be involved. He’s not cheap on DraftKings, but second base is pretty weak and Whit gives you safety and upside.
3B - Vlad Guerrero Jr. TOR @ BAL (David Hess) ($4,200)
Vlad Guerrero Jr. has been a bit up and down, but his power is there with seven homers already and he's hit three to the warning track. The Blue Jays get to face David Hess tonight, who has been absolutely terrible and will be lucky to remain a starter for the rest of this season. Against right-handers, David Hess has given up a .421 wOBA and a 6.18 xFIP. He's also found a way to give up 17 home runs in just 36 innings of work. By any measure, David Hess is an absolutely terrible pitcher and can be taken advantage of by both lefties and righties. I love this Blue Jays squad tonight and you won't find a lineup of mine without three or four of them.
SS - Jonathan Villar BAL vs. TOR (Edwin Jackson) ($4,600)
We haven't touched on the Baltimore Orioles yet, but they're nearly as good of an offense as the Blue Jays are vs David Hess. Edwin Jackson has been just as bad, if not worse than David Hess. A .450 wOBA allowed to both sides of the plate is insane, and he wasn't much better in 2018. The Orioles are a terrible offense, but they have a lot of upside and I expect them to be about half as owned. Jonathan Villar has been better against righties (.347 wOBA) and has stolen base upside on top of it. Edwin Jackson is terrible and the bullpen that is following him is just as bad.
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Trey Mancini BAL vs. TOR (Edwin Jackson) ($5,000)
We'll stick with the Orioles here and focus on Trey Mancini, who's the heart and soul of this O's lineup. He's dominated right-handers with a .369 wOBA on the season and has hit most of his homers against them. Edwin Jackson will be lucky to reach five innings and the bullpen following him won't help (28th). Mancini is pretty expensive on DK, but let's hope that just keeps his ownership down. This game is one we need to pay attention to with an 11 over/under.
Jorge Soler KC vs. DET (Daniel Norris) ($4,700)
Realize it or not, Jorge Soler has blasted 17 home runs so far. He’s always had major league power, but this is what we were looking for since 2016. He’s turned the corner in every way possible and is making more hard contact than ever before. He’s been better against righties this season, but that should balance out as a guy who holds a career higher wOBA to lefties. The Royals are in an interesting spot and shouldn’t be over 5% owned anywhere.
Yordan Alvarez HOU vs. MIL (Brandon Woodruff) ($4,000)
Yordan Alvarez has homered in each of his first two games since being called up. As someone who’s been fortunate to have 100% of him so far, we’re not chasing points. This is a guy who’s hit nearly 30 home runs so far and major league pitchers don’t have a complex scouting report yet. He’s also not just a power guy, sitting patiently and drawing a 6-pitch walk in a key inning last night. He’s facing a decent pitcher in Brandon Woodruff, but this Astros lineup is deep and I think they do enough damage. Alvarez is my favorite as a one-off.
