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Mike's college football Week 13 expert picks and predictions. Get the best against the spread picks, betting trends, and score projections for the top matchups.
I had a strong week last week, and I've been ready to get back into this all week! We have to let the lines settle a little. They're usually close to where they're going to close by Friday morning unless we have injury news (which we rarely do in college).
Welcome to my world! I love days like this! We have 52 games to bet on this week, and that's with four teams paying FCS teams for a scrimmage. If you want me to comment on those, contact me. I only do FBS vs. FBS teams in the article.
If you'd like me to advise on over/under or prop bets, you can reach out on X or in the RotoBaller Discord, and I'll be happy to answer. Let's get to the picks we really care about and make some money!
CFB Betting Picks for Week 13 - (11/22/25)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five, not a top 10, all of them! Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly, as the case may be.
The sheet is still under construction, as I am having issues locating articles from 2019 and 2020. If any of you have knowledge of computers and can help locate defunct webpages, I would love to hear from you!
Rutgers at (1) Ohio State (-31.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I'm torn on this one. On one hand, I think Ohio State lets the starters get a 30-point lead, then the coaches make them be cheerleaders with the Michigan game on deck. With Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate nursing injuries, we may not see them on the field at all.
On the other hand, I still think Ohio State sees a Heisman possibility for Julian Sayin. I would guess that since he has to play in college for one more season that the Buckeyes will let him have his run next year. There's no way I'm placing a meaningful wager on this.
For those of you who are considering it, there is very little juice on Ohio State. That means Vegas doesn't know what to do with this either, or they're trying to push bettors to Ohio State for the reasons I stated above. All the more reason to leave this alone.
Pick: Ohio State -31.5
(22) Missouri at (8) Oklahoma (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Sources: Missouri QB Beau Pribula is expected to be upgraded to questionable on the SEC availability report. He’s medically cleared to play on Saturday, and it’ll come down to a coach’s decision — with player input — on how he looks/feels in order for him to play at Oklahoma. pic.twitter.com/1CSOhJBgzC
— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) November 21, 2025
If Pribula is back for Missouri, it changes things. It also explains why the line is falling. There is no guarantee that Pribula will play, but if he does, he will likely be limited when running the ball.
Oklahoma's defense has bordered on elite all season, but the Sooners have been outgained by 304 yards in conference play. If they can't force turnovers, they're cooked.
This wouldn't be the first time that Missouri has ruined Oklahoma's shot at the postseason, but I think enough players are left over from last year who remember Missouri scoring twice in the final 65 seconds of the game to steal the win. It's time for payback.
Pick: Oklahoma -6.5
(13) Miami (FL) (-17.5) at Virginia Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is the first time that the Hokies have been a two-touchdown dog at home since Ohio State in 2015. I get it, but Miami -- in particular, Carson Beck -- has not played well in road games.
This line ballooned with the injury report turned up without Mark Fletcher Jr. on it. This feels like an overreaction.
Pick: Virginia Tech +17.5
Minnesota at Northwestern (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow, this line says it all, doesn't it? Minnesota is 2-7-1 against the spread this year, but Northwestern is 0-7 all-time at Wrigley Field, dating back to 1923. Now, which trend do we follow?
They're both bad, but Northwestern needs this for bowl eligibility, and it could be the last time they play at Wrigley for quite a while with the new Ryan Field opening next fall. They can't leave Wrigley forever without a win, can they?
Pick: Northwestern -3.5
Louisville at SMU (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
SMU is likely favored since Isaac Brown is still expected to be out. Louisville hasn't been losing games because of the absence of Brown. They have been losing games due to a porous pass defense and poor kicking. SMU is not a team that you want to have a porous pass defense against.
Pick: SMU -2.5
Delaware at Wake Forest (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line came back with a vengeance! Wake is going to win, but the only FBS team Wake has beaten by more than 17 points is an awful Oregon State team. How awful is Oregon State? They fired TWO coaches already this year, and would likely fire the third if anyone else could coach the team.
Pick: Delaware +17.5
Kansas at Iowa State (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Iowa State hasn't won a game in Ames since September. Kansas wants to get to a bowl so Jalon Daniels can go out in style. They'll need this one because they're not beating Utah.
Pick: Kansas +3.5
Tulsa at Army (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Wow. Yuck. Baylor Hayes has played well for Tulsa, even if the team around him hasn't. This feels a touch high.
Pick: Tulsa +10.5
Charlotte at (4) Georgia (-44.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Kirby Smart is 0-13-1 as a 40-point favorite. The Bulldogs beat Austin Peay earlier this season 28-6 as a 46.5-point favorite...
— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) November 20, 2025
Is Charlotte worse than Austin Peay? Maybe. Are they 25 points worse? I highly doubt it.
Pick: Charlotte +44.5
Washington State at James Madison (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Cougars lost to Oregon State on the road and were blown out by North Texas. Even if they catch a sixth win, I want Delaware or Missouri State in a bowl over this team...
Pick: James Madison -13.5
Baylor at Arizona (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I'm very surprised that this line is under a touchdown. The Baylor pass defense has been better lately, but the run defense is one of the worst on the planet.
Pick: Arizona -6.5
Old Dominion (-12.5) at Georgia Southern
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't know about this one. Georgia Southern is 5-0 at home this year, including a win over Jacksonville State. I could buy the Monarchs winning, but by 13 points? That seems really ambitious.
Pick: Georgia Southern +12.5
Missouri State at Kennesaw State (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Both are in the hunt for a Conference USA title. The only team to beat Missouri State by more than a touchdown on the road was USC in the first-ever FBS game for the Bears. Am I crazy for thinking they can stay within a touchdown?
Pick: Missouri State +6.5
Nevada at Wyoming (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is the treatment Nevada gets after blowing out San Jose State? The Pack plays at altitude as well. The line is already down four points, which means there's a lot of money coming in on Nevada.
Now there's no juice on that side. Vegas expects a seven-point win for the Cowboys. I don't. I've watched too much of that offense this year.
Pick: Nevada +6.5
Ball State at Toledo (-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Hey, aren't you guys supposed to be playing on Wednesday? It wouldn't matter. I still won't touch this, and here's why. If you take Ball State +27.5, it's even money. If you take Toledo -28.5, it's even money.
Vegas is 100% convinced this will be a 28-point game, even though the line is up six points. That makes me very nervous. Most casinos still have this at -27.5 with some juice on it, so that's where I get to pick it.
Pick: Toledo -27.5
Marshall (-5.5) at Appalachian State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
App State was held under 100 yards of total offense last week. This team is in a spiral right now, losing four straight. However, the only one that wasn't close was James Madison. They lost the other three to Coastal Carolina, Old Dominion, and Georgia Southern by a combined 13 points.
Pick: Marshall -5.5
Connecticut (-7.5) at Florida Atlantic
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't like the hook, but it's not enough to scare me off either. It just means I lower the bet a little.
Pick: Connecticut -7.5
Liberty (-1.5) at Louisiana Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Bulldogs just got blown out by Blah-shington State.
Pick: Liberty -1.5
Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee State (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It took Sam Houston 10 games to get a win at home. They're not winning on the road yet.
Pick: Middle Tennessee State -6.5
New Mexico State at UTEP (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
What? Why does UTEP keep getting love in Vegas? The Miners are 3-7 against the spread, and two of those were in the first three weeks against UT-Martin and a struggling Texas team.
Pick: New Mexico State +3.5
South Florida (-21.5) at UAB
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I really don't like that hook. Considering the juice doesn't follow it, I'll still bet the better team.
Pick: South Florida -21.5
(15) USC at (7) Oregon (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
USC has lost eight straight (0-5 under Lincoln Riley) games as a road underdog. In its last 21 games as a road dog, USC has pulled just two upsets (5-16 ATS)...
— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) November 20, 2025
I have reservations about Oregon, and so does everyone else. This line is down five points already. However, there's a ton of juice on Oregon now. Betting USC at +9.5 will give you plus odds. There's only one reason for that, and it's because the trend will hold.
Pick: Oregon -9.5
Syracuse at (9) Notre Dame (-35.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Syracuse offense has been putrid since Steve Angeli went down. It's so bad that they even went back to the struggling Rickie Collins.
Pick: Notre Dame -35.5
Kentucky at (14) Vanderbilt (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Is this with a regular Diego Pavia or a mini Diego Pavia? Diego Pavia is already a mini? Okay then. That makes it easier.
Pick: Vanderbilt -9.5
Arkansas at (17) Texas (-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is all over the place, but it's also slipping. It's not at double figures where it opened at any book. Now there's heavy juice on Texas across the board. That usually means a lot of bettors were tweaking the odds anyway.
I'm not sure why. This is one of the few good matchups that Texas has had this year.
Pick: Texas -8.5
Michigan State at Iowa (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Can Iowa even score 17?
Pick: Michigan State +16.5
Duke (-6.5) at North Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This comes down to whether you trust Gio Lopez to throw all over the Duke defense or not. Most quarterbacks have. This still feels like a dream matchup for Duke.
Pick: Duke -6.5
Jacksonville State (-1.5) at Florida International
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
People doubted the Gamecocks at home against Kennesaw. They won. The Gamecocks have won five straight since the loss to Southern Miss at the end of September. Three of those games were on the road.
Pick: Jacksonville State -1.5
Southern Mississippi (-1.5) at South Alabama
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm guessing that Vegas doesn't trust that Braylon Braxton will play. Then again, they have been sweet on the Jags all season, especially in Mobile. South Alabama is 1-4 against the spread at home this year. They're doing damage on the road.
Pick: Southern Mississippi -1.5
East Carolina (-2.5) at UTSA
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
UTSA has won 24 consecutive conference games in the Alamodome, including dominating a now-ranked Tulane team. Good luck, ECU.
Pick: UTSA +2.5
(24) Tulane (-8.5) at Temple
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This has all the makings of a trap game, yet most bettors aren't jumping on it. We've seen trendy upset picks go belly-up once bettors went heavy on them several times this year. I went against almost all of those.
Pick: Tulane -8.5
Kansas State at (12) Utah (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Utah understands the assignment. They obliterated Baylor last week. This week, they draw Kansas State without RB Dylan Edwards and leading receiver Jayce Brown. Avery Johnson truly is the One-Man Gang.
Pick: Utah -17.5
(18) Michigan (-14.5) at Maryland
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Excluding the 2020 season, Michigan has won 58 straight games as a double-digit favorite dating back to a 2017 loss to Michigan State...
— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) November 20, 2025
I'm not messing with that trend.
Pick: Maryland +14.5
TCU at (23) Houston (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
In Houston's last two games at home, they lost to West Virginia and needed a miracle to beat Arizona. Even TCU beat West Virginia!
Pick: TCU +1.5
Oklahoma State at Central Florida (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
UCF has been good at the Bounce House and horrible on the road. The same is true for the Pokes.
Pick: Central Florida -13.5
Georgia State at Troy (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I really hate that hook. Troy hasn't even scored 11 points in the last two games combined.
Pick: Georgia State +10.5
Coastal Carolina at South Carolina (-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow, South Carolina is getting a lot of respect for flexing on A&M in the first half. I feel like this might be an overcorrection.
Pick: Coastal Carolina +24.5
Louisiana-Monroe at Texas State (-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Bobcats are getting too much credit for beating a Southern Miss team that was without Braylon Braxton. They lost to Louisiana the week before. The Bobcats are 3-7 against the spread this year, but Monroe is 132nd out of 136 FBS teams in points scored.
Pick: Texas State -18.5
Pittsburgh at (16) Georgia Tech (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
One of these days, Tech's luck is going to run out. It might be here, considering Pitt has won four of the last five games in Atlanta.
Pick: Pittsburgh +2.5
Nebraska at Penn State (-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Penn State fans still showed up even after James Franklin was fired. This still feels too high. Emmett Johnson is the best player in this game.
This is for the entire country
Here is where you vote Emmett Johnson for Heisman https://t.co/jH5cVt9t1o pic.twitter.com/aDUMcLovPJ
— Will Compton (@_willcompton) November 11, 2025
Pick: Nebraska +8.5
New Mexico (-3.5) at Air Force
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Really? The Lobos almost lost at home to Colorado State last week. That would be a 2-8 Colorado State...
Pick: Air Force +3.5
Colorado State at Boise State (-16.5) *UPDATE 11/21 at 4:40 EDT*
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't know if Colorado State is really that much better, but the Boise offense has been in stasis since Maddux Madsen went down. Given the way the Rams played against New Mexico last week, this is too high.
Pick: Colorado State +16.5
(20) Tennessee (-4.5) at Florida
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Tennessee hasnt won in Gainesville since 2003. Ten straight losses , eight by more than one score, seven by double digits and the last three by 22.7 PPG...
— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) November 20, 2025
If you're not old enough to drink, you weren't even alive the last time Tennessee won in the Swamp. If you're not old enough to rent a car, you don't remember the last time Tennessee won in the Swamp.
Tennessee has won the last two in Knoxville against the Gators. Can they finally get this one on the road? There will never be a better chance. This one's for you, Jackson.
Pick: Tennessee -4.5
(21) Illinois (-7.5) at Wisconsin
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Badgers are reportedly sticking with Luke Fickell. Depending on who you listen to, it's because the private equity deal fell through. Wisconsin played inspired for a half against Indiana. Illinois didn't even do that against the Hoosiers.
This line has fallen two points, but this is probably where the slide ends. If it gets under a touchdown, I'm hammering Illinois. I would have bet this line where it opened.
Pick: Illinois -7.5
California (-3.5) at Stanford
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This feels low, but you never know what's going to happen in the Big Game. Except for this. We know this will happen.
Stanford and Cal students required to stare at each other with serious faces until the game ends. #STANvsCAL pic.twitter.com/q7xcrOWUFa
— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) November 20, 2016
Pick: California -3.5
North Texas (-17.5) at Rice
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The CFP committee valued Power 4 wins over the team's record. You know what that means. North Texas has to give them something for the eye test...if they're even willing to watch a G5 team.
Pick: North Texas -17.5
Western Kentucky at LSU (-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
When scheduling a cupcake, you may not want to schedule one that has a puncher's chance at beating you...
Pick: Western Kentucky +21.5
(11) BYU (-2.5) at Cincinnati
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Since joining the Big 12, BYU is 16-1 straight up as a favorite. The one loss came at home against Kansas last year as a 2.5-point favorite. That game featured a 9-0 BYU team vs a 3-6 Kansas team...
— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) November 20, 2025
Once again, Vegas is light on BYU. I'm not.
Pick: BYU -2.5
(25) Arizona State (-7.5) at Colorado
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It's comical that Arizona State is back in the rankings with its starting quarterback out for the season and the leading receiver possibly facing the same fate. At least they have Colorado to beat on...
Pick: Arizona State -7.5
Washington (-10.5) at UCLA
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
It's lazy to say we're seeing the "true UCLA" because they were blown out by Ohio State and Indiana. If we're being fair, those two teams would blow out anyone else in the Big Ten with the possible exception of Michigan and Oregon.
This does feel like a bit of an overcorrection. The Bruins hung with Nebraska, but the Huskers were without Dylan Raiola. I really don't like the hook.
Pick: UCLA +10.5
Utah State at Fresno State (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Fresno smoked Wyoming last week, but the Cowboys have no offense. Utah State is a solid offensive team.
Pick: Utah State +2.5
San Jose State at San Diego State (-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
We just saw Nevada drop the hammer on the Spartans, and they did it through defense. The thing is...Nevada doesn't have a strong defense.
Pick: San Diego State -11.5
For the third straight week, I only have two max bets. I've gone 3-1 with those picks, so I'm being more selective. I have 23 for two points and 24 for three points. That's where most of the action is this week. I ended with five minimum bets, and six with four points.
