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Mike's college football Week 12 expert picks and predictions. Get the best against the spread picks, betting trends, and score projections for the top matchups.
I dropped another game last week at 25-26, but only lost one betting point. I'm getting by with solid picks on higher bets, but there are some teams that I'm having trouble figuring out this year.
We have our busiest Saturday of the season with 50 FBS vs. FBS games this week. Kentucky is attempting to slum it up with Tennessee Tech, but the Golden Eagles are ranked 14th in the FCS polls and are undefeated. Kentucky can't even do cupcakes right!
If you'd like me to advise on over/under or prop bets, you can reach out on X or in the RotoBaller Discord, and I'll be happy to answer. Let's get to the picks we really care about and make some money!
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 12 - (11/15/25)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five, not a top 10, all of them! Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly, as the case may be.
The sheet is still under construction, as I am having issues locating articles from 2019 and 2020. If any of you have knowledge of computers and can help locate defunct webpages, I would love to hear from you!
Wisconsin at (2) Indiana (-29.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I will not be partaking in this weekend's festivities. Wisconsin, like Penn State, has a solid defense. The offense is so lousy that the punter led the team in passing yards last week, but 30 points is a lot on this Wisconsin defense.
Both Ohio State and Iowa covered this in Madison, so I can see Indiana doing the same. I just have no interest in betting on it. There are better spots on this busy Saturday.
Pick: Indiana -29.5
South Carolina at (3) Texas A&M (-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The only team to beat South Carolina by 20 is Vanderbilt, and LaNorris Sellers got hurt just before halftime in that game. The Gamecocks have played Oklahoma, Alabama, and Mississippi. If those three couldn't do it, I have my doubts that A&M can.
Vegas feels the same way. There's a lot of juice on the South Carolina side, even at +18.5. Vegas wants us to bet on the Aggies.
Pick: South Carolina +19.5
(9) Notre Dame (-12.5) at (22) Pittsburgh
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is rising. The Catholics are out en masse to put their money into pushing Notre Dame into the CFP. This is the last chance anyone has to stop them. The CFP has them in the top 10, and Stanford and Syracuse won't stop them.
Notre Dame has won 47 straight games away from home as a double-digit favorite dating back to a 1997 loss at Purdue.The Irish are 7-0 under Marcus Freeman in this role with all but one game decided by fewer than 15 points...
— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) November 13, 2025
Pittsburgh is 5-0 with Mason Heintschel as the starter, but it hasn't exactly been a gauntlet. Pitt beat Florida State, Boston College, Syracuse (without Steve Angeli), North Carolina State, and Stanford. Three of those games were on the road, but still...not that great of teams.
I usually follow these sorts of trends. The trend says that Notre Dame is not going to blow out Pittsburgh. I'm not sure that word is in Mason Heintschel's vocabulary, which is all the more reason to stick with the trend.
Pick: Pittsburgh +12.5
(18) Michigan (-12.5) at Northwestern
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
In its last 12 games as a double-digit favorite, Michigan is 3-9 ATS. However, the Wolverines have not been upset as a double-digit favorite since 2020 - 39 straight wins...
— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) November 13, 2025
This isn't really "at" Northwestern. Evanston and Wrigleyville are two very different things. For one, there may be more Michigan fans than Northwestern fans in Wrigleyville.
That being said, Michigan couldn't care less about spreads. Jordan Marshall runs 30 times, Bryce Underwood scores a touchdown just so people realize he's still on the team, and the defense dominates. That's usually not conducive to covering lines like this.
Pick: Northwestern +12.5
(24) South Florida (-10.5) at Navy
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
One of these teams has a good defense, but not the one you would think. Byrum Brown is going to have a monster game in Annapolis.
Pick: South Florida -10.5
Arizona at (25) Cincinnati (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is slowly creeping upward. We know that Arizona can't be had through the air, but Cincinnati can run well enough to take care of it. I'm on the fence about this one. I could see Arizona winning.
Pick: Cincinnati -6.5
Kansas State (-19.5) at Oklahoma State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I don't like this line at all. The only team K-State beat by 20 was Kansas. This is another rivalry game, though it doesn't much feel like it this year. Oklahoma State finally has a quarterback playing quarterback again. That counts for something, right?
Pick: Oklahoma State +19.5
Air Force at Connecticut (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I'm not a fan of the hook, but Air Force has allowed 288.1 passing yards per game. That's 134th out of 136 FBS teams. Say, all of you non-UConn fans, have you met Joe?
UConn’s Joe Fagnano is the first FBS QB to throw for 25 touchdowns and 0 INTs through the first 10 games of a season since Marcus Mariota in 2013.
2025 Joe Fagnano:
• 68.8%, 2,842 yards, 25 TDs, 0 INTs2013 Marcus Mariota:
• 64.2%, 2,819 yards, 25 TDs, 0 INTs pic.twitter.com/LDhJa9Cmjt— CFB Kings (@CFBKings) November 13, 2025
Pick: Connecticut -7.5
UTSA (-17.5) at Charlotte
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The UTSA offense is still fun to watch, especially against a team that won't be able to stop them...
Pick: UTSA -17.5
Eastern Michigan (-2.5) at Ball State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
How many times have we gone over this? Ball State is money in Muncie! The Cardinals are 4-0 at home (including a win over Ohio) and 4-0 against the spread at home.
Pick: Ball State +2.5
Arkansas at LSU (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Battle of the Boot is a college football rivalry between LSU and the Arkansas Razorbacks.
The trophy is 200 pounds, 4 feet tall, and worth $10,000.
It's 24-karat gold, and its shape is Arkansas and Louisiana connected, making the iconic boot shape.#Tigers #Razorbacks pic.twitter.com/mOBgKWvyTv— Dijuno? (@Dijunofacts) October 19, 2024
This is the first-ever meeting of interim coaches in an SEC game. The winner of the trophy gets to sell the boot and put it towards the buyout of the old coach.
Pick: Arkansas +5.5
Oregon State (-2.5) at Tulsa
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Oregon State blew a 16-point lead at home to Sam Houston last week -- a loss so embarrassing that the interim coach got fired. This is insane!
Pick: Tulsa +2.5
West Virginia at Arizona State (-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Are the Mountaineers really so bad that they'll lose to a team without its starting quarterback (Sam Leavitt) and star receiver (Jordyn Tyson)? Is that where the program is now? What does that say for Colorado if this is true?
Pick: West Virginia +11.5
Marshall (-7.5) at Georgia State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Marshall is 6-3 against the spread this year, and James Madison only beat them by 12.
Pick: Marshall -7.5
North Texas (-17.5) at UAB
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Blazers have been better under interim coach Alex Mortenson. North Texas needs to win big because they have no good wins on its schedule and no chance for one. I really don't like that hook, but that North Texas offense is special.
Pick: North Texas -17.5
UTEP at Missouri State (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This feels low. The Bears have an outside shot at the Conference USA title and should be going to a bowl game. The NCAA hasn't stopped super-mega-big-ass conferences from ruining the sport. Maybe they can start with something little, like getting rid of this dumb, antiquated rule.
The rule that an FBS team cannot go to a bowl in the first two years as a member of FBS was made in 2004 to prevent teams from jumping before they were ready.
Of the last 10 teams to make the jump since 2014, only Charlotte in 2015 struggled in its first season. The NCAA raised the "buy-in" from five thousand to five million dollars. Not only that, but teams are banned from the postseason for four years -- the last two years in FCS and the first two years in FBS.
No one is paying that entry fee if they aren't ready. In fact, that has been the only deterrent to a few teams, most notably the Dakota teams and Stephen F. Austin. Missouri State has one of the best home atmospheres in the Group of 5 already. This team deserves a bowl bid.
All they can do now is keep proving it on the field, which they should.
Pick: Missouri State -4.5
Colorado State at New Mexico (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Ugh...I was hoping this line wouldn't climb above 14. I don't like the hook, but I just can't with the Rams.
Pick: New Mexico -14.5
(11) Oklahoma at (4) Alabama (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Alabama and Oklahoma have spent more weeks as the AP #1 ranked team than every other SEC team COMBINED!
— SEC Numbers Guy (@secnumbersguy) November 13, 2025
That is just a mind-blowing stat with teams like Texas, Florida, and Georgia also being in this conference. It's a testament to both programs and just how big this game is. Making it even bigger is that it's an elimination game for Oklahoma.
This line has cratered, which means a whole lot of money is coming in on the Sooners. I want to believe. I really do. Winning in Knoxville is one thing. We'll be able to control the Alabama passing game, and the run game isn't much.
With the emergence of Xavier Robinson, I know that this is at least a possibility. I believe, but I'm likely leaving this one alone.
Pick: Oklahoma +5.5
Central Florida at (6) Texas Tech (-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That's a lot of points, but Tech nearly covered it against a far superior BYU team.
Pick: Texas Tech -23.5
North Carolina State at (15) Miami (FL) (-15.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
My first thought is that this is too many. NC State has the worst pass defense in the country, but quarterback CJ Bailey is returning home to play. We're going to see Bailey ball out in front of family and friends to keep this close.
Pick: North Carolina State +15.5
(16) Georgia Tech (-16.5) at Boston College
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Those five teams won those games by a combined score of 191-22 and none of the five home teams scored more than seven points. The last such game was Oklahoma 41, Kansas 3 in 2017...
— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) November 13, 2025
I was leaning toward Georgia Tech anyway, but that's a damning stat. I'm going to up the bet a little.
Pick: Georgia Tech -16.5
(21) Iowa at (17) USC (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Iowa finally plays a game at USC and this is the forecast for Los Angeles Saturday afternoon pic.twitter.com/UcPamFmG25
— Josh Pate (@JoshPateCFB) November 13, 2025
It rains around a dozen days per year in Los Angeles. Mother Nature is using up three of them just for this game. The line has fallen accordingly. For under a touchdown, I'm still leaning toward USC. If it were above a touchdown, I would be all over Iowa.
Even though the line is down, I still don't trust it. Lincoln Riley's victim mentality means that a loss is never USC's fault. It's always the travel, the time change, or the weather, the field, etc. I wouldn't be shocked if USC lost.
Pick: Iowa +6.5
(19) Virginia at Duke (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Chandler Morris is still in concussion protocol. Daniel Kaelin played well enough after Morris was knocked out of the Wake Forest game, but the offense still sputtered.
The way to beat Duke is through the air. Morris would help a lot more in that respect. I gather from the line that Vegas isn't as optimistic about Morris playing as Tony Elliott is. I like Duke at home regardless, but I may drop the bet if Morris plays.
Pick: Duke +4.5
Penn State (-6.5) at Michigan State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is a little surprising to me. Penn State's defense has been strong, but is this an overreaction to Penn State nearly toppling Indiana at home? It sure feels like it.
Michigan State isn't a particularly good team. Under normal circumstances, this would be a no-brainer bet on Penn State. I trust it a lot less now, but the running game should cover this, and the defense should hold.
Pick: Penn State -6.5
Maryland at Illinois (-15.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Maryland almost lost by this margin to Rutgers last week. I guess that means I'm taking Illinois...
Pick: Illinois -15.5
Middle Tennessee State at Western Kentucky (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
100 Miles of Hate moves north this year. I would normally say that this is too high for a rivalry game, but the Hilltoppers have won the last four games in this series by at least 18 points. MTSU isn't any better this year.
Pick: Western Kentucky -13.5
San Jose State (-9.5) at Nevada
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm not a believer in the San Jose State defense, but Nevada has been outscored 75-17 in the last two games and is onto the next QB on the depth chart.
Pick: San Jose State -9.5
Appalachian State at James Madison (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Dukes aren't known for covering lines like this, and App State has hung with Old Dominion and Georgia Southern over the last two weeks. I don't think the Mountaineers win, but this feels a touch high.
Pick: Appalachian State +20.5
South Alabama (-4.5) at Louisiana-Monroe
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't trust the Jags, but I trust the Warhawks even less.
Pick: South Alabama -4.5
Texas State at Southern Mississippi (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
There is no juice at all on Southern Miss. FanDuel will even give you plus money on the Eagles right now. This line is already down three points with no good reason.
That makes me nervous, but I believe in Charles Huff and this defense. I hope this line keeps falling.
Pick: Southern Mississippi -3.5
Memphis at East Carolina (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is up above 3 on FanDuel, and it still has juice on it, but other sportsbooks have heavy juice on Memphis. I thought it peculiar that ECU was favored to begin with.
The fact that most Vegas casinos (not online ones) have serious juice in the Tigers means that they expect a Memphis win and are trying to keep us from betting on it.
Pick: Memphis +2.5
Florida Atlantic at Tulane (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I hate the hook, especially when I think this is too high to begin with.
Pick: Florida Atlantic +17.5
New Mexico State at (23) Tennessee (-39.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Good grief. There are many better spots. Stay far away from this one.
Pick: Tennessee -39.5
North Carolina at Wake Forest (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Bill Belichick's frustration with the slow mesh of Wake Forest could cause an epic meltdown, and I'm here for it.
Pick: Wake Forest -5.5
Liberty (-2.5) at Florida International
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
FIU has actually been worse at home than on the road.
Pick: Liberty -2.5
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't like the hook, especially with very little juice on the Georgia Southern side. I also know that the GSU offense is going to be a massive problem for the Chanticleers.
Pick: Georgia Southern -3.5
Florida at (7) Mississippi (-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
A Florida loss will clinch the Gators 4th losing season in the last five years and 6th losing season since 2013 (13 seasons). From 1980 to 2012 the Gators didn’t have a single losing season and had six losing seasons from 1950 to 2012 (63 seasons) before this current stretch...
— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) November 13, 2025
I know that Ole Miss sometimes gets complacent in games like this, but Florida's soul left the team against Kentucky last week. This team checked out.
Pick: Mississippi -12.5
(13) Utah (-8.5) at Baylor
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Baylor has been worse at home than on the road this year. I would be more worried if the game were in Salt Lake City.
Pick: Utah -8.5
Purdue at Washington (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Purdue held Michigan, but this Washington offense is much more explosive when not playing in sleet and snow.
Pick: Washington -16.5
Delaware (-9.5) at Sam Houston
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
We know that Delaware is a lot better than the Bearkats, who aren't even playing in Huntsville this year. It affected the team, much like it did Kansas last year, playing in Kansas City.
Pick: Delaware -9.5
Utah State at UNLV (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That over 70.5 is calling me. The showdown between Anthony Colandrea and Bryson Barnes -- both former Power 4 quarterbacks -- is going to be epic.
Pick: UNLV -6.5
UCLA at (1) Ohio State (-31.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I have no interest in this game whatsoever. Betting on it, watching it, nothing. It takes a lot for me to reach this level of complacency.
Pick: UCLA +31.5
(10) Texas at (5) Georgia (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This line is already up four points, and if I had a guess, I would say it closes at 7.5. A lot of money is coming in on Georgia, as it should be. The Texas offense is significantly worse than it was last year. Georgia's is much better.
The Georgia defense has struggled to get a pass rush this year, and the Texas defense might be better than it was last year. The difference with Georgia this year is that they aren't making the mistakes they did last year.
The Bulldogs took down Texas twice last year. Once in Austin and once in Atlanta. It's irrational to believe that Texas can win this in Athens. Texas has been a dog eight times under Steve Sarkisian. Their only win was at Alabama in 2023.
Pick: Georgia -6.5
Virginia Tech at Florida State (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The line is finally under two touchdowns. I like it a lot better here. If it trends back up to -14.5 (It's at 14 on DraftKings, Caesars, and MGM), I'm out.
Pick: Florida State -13.5
Mississippi State at Missouri (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Bulldogs finally got a conference win, and Missouri is on a freshman quarterback. Ahmad Hardy and the run game should seal this, but I'm less confident in it than I would be with a proven quarterback.
Pick: Missouri -6.5
Kennesaw State (-2.5) at Jacksonville State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line has teetered on either side of three all week and has finally dipped back to where it opened at Bet365. There's no juice on the Gamecocks until it gets to 3.5. You know what that means. They want us to bet on the home team.
The Gamecocks were my biggest bet of the week last week, and they came through. This is a much tougher matchup.
Pick: Kennesaw State -2.5
Louisiana Tech at Washington State (-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't know about this one. Washington State's only win since September was against Toledo, which was without star running back Chip Trayanum. Those losses were by a combined eight points, but the inability of the Cougars to move the ball against Oregon State is concerning.
Pick: Louisiana Tech +8.5
TCU at (12) BYU (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The Toadies have been mostly dreadful on the road this year. That's not changing now.
Pick: BYU -3.5
Boise State at San Diego State (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I know that when the Aztecs have been bad, they have been really bad. It's also worth noting that Boise has struggled against every decent defense they have played this year. The Aztecs are better than decent.
Pick: San Diego State -1.5
Wyoming at Fresno State (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Fresno throttled Boise before the bye, but only because Maddux Madsen got hurt. Fresno lost to Colorado State two weeks before that. Forgive me if I don't trust this line.
Pick: Wyoming +3.5
For the second straight week, I only have two max bets. I only have six minimum bets, so I've got some skin out there. 21 each on two and three points, to be exact. That leaves eight bets worth four points. Good luck out there!
