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Ryan Kirksey's fantasy baseball waiver wire analysis for Week 20 (2024) and whether to buy/sell MLB hitters and pitchers. Should you be leery of these hot streaks?
We have reached the stage of the fantasy baseball season where teams are going deeper into their benches and prospect lists to find players to fill roster spots. With the trade deadline passed and many teams accepting their 2024 fates, many clubs will be willing to give new players or young players a longer look for the rest of the season. How we handle this last month before the fantasy playoffs start can make or break our rosters depending on our waiver-wire moves.
Players like Gavin Lux, Tyler Fitzgerald, and Josh Bell are exceptionally hot right now, but will it last? These are some of the hottest pickups of the week. Just because these players are at the head of the class for this week's waiver wire doesn't mean the production will continue through August and September. Diving deep into their performances should tell a better story. That's the goal of this piece today.
Below are four players who are widely recommended as waiver-wire options across the fantasy baseball industry this weekend and deserve a closer look. It's not to say that these are not strong options for your teams considering your league's context, but each deserves a more critical eye based on their recent performance.
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Joey Loperfido, 1B/OF - Toronto Blue Jays
At the trade deadline, the Toronto Blue Jays sent away four different players who were getting at least semi-regular playing time for the Blue Jays. Add in Cavan Biggio and his June release, and there have been some holes to fill north of the border. Joey Loperfido, the centerpiece of the trade with Houston for Yusei Kikuchi, has arrived with much fanfare and an opportunity to play every day, but we should pump the brakes until some things at this level start to improve.
Joey Loperfido hits a triple for the Blue Jays. pic.twitter.com/nw0gZ954Y5
— Michael Schwab (@michaelschwab13) August 3, 2024
Loperfido tore up Triple-A this year, hitting .272/.365/.568 with 13 home runs and 33 RBI in 39 games before coming up to play in Houston's outfield. He showed a little bit of pop and speed at this level (two home runs and two steals), but his slash line (.234/.295/.351) leaves a lot to be desired. Loperfido has been placed in the No. 2 spot in the Blue Jays order already, but if he can't cut down on his 37% strikeout rate, the power won't justify the lack of contact. If that's not enough, he also has an unsustainable .369 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) despite his low average.
Eugenio Suarez, 3B - Arizona Diamondbacks
What's not to like about a player who hit .333 in July with 10 home runs, drove in 27 runs, and scored 21 times? Well, how about the fact that it comes from one of the notoriously streaky players in the league who is still hitting just .230/.309/.415 with 16 round-trippers on the season? The month of July was a good half-season for Eugenio Suarez based on his track record. His luck is about to come crashing down soon.
For that magical month of July, Suarez had a .357 BABIP when he was under .225 for both May and June. He struck out 25% of the time when he had been above 30% in both May and June. Suarez's OPS for both of those months didn't even reach .600, but all of a sudden shot up to 1.131 in July. Credit to those who had him and ran with Suarez during this streak, but it's not worth paying an arm and a leg for on waivers.
Tyler Fitzgerald, SS/OF - San Francisco Giants
The last two weeks for San Francisco Giants shortstop Tyler Fitzgerald have been video game numbers that no one outside names like Bobby Witt Jr. and Aaron Judge can match. In that time frame, Fitzgerald hit .341/.408/.909 with eight home runs and 12 RBI. By the measure of wRC+, he was the fifth-best hitter in all of baseball. On Friday night, he homered again to go along with three total hits and all the offense Blake Snell needed in his no-hitter.
Tyler Fitzgerald's scorching run continues!
He has 9 HRs in his last 14 games. 🤯 pic.twitter.com/bdExNPdqSZ
— MLB (@MLB) August 3, 2024
You don't need some fantasy baseball analyst to tell you that nine home runs in less than two weeks is completely and utterly unsustainable. I'm not sure if people think they are seeing Barry Bonds out there again at Oracle Park, but that is basically what Fitzgerald would have to become to keep up this level of production. Fitzgerald has a 30% strikeout rate, a super-high .386 BABIP, and a home run per fly ball that's only beaten by Judge this season if Fitzgerald had enough plate appearances to qualify. The stats are going to come down soon.
Simeon Woods Richardson, SP - Minnesota Twins
The race is on right now to pick up rookie Simeon Woods Richardson ahead of his Sunday afternoon start against the horrific Chicago White Sox. Perhaps Woods Richardson can finally get this fourth win in that spot against one of the worst teams in the history of baseball. And while I certainly approve of grabbing Woods Richardson as a streamer on that date, paying up for a tough schedule ahead and some fluky numbers behind may not be the most advisable move.
That matches Simeon Woods Richardson's shortest outing of the season. Most runs he's allowed all year. #mets
— Zach Braziller (@NYPost_Brazille) July 30, 2024
Woods Richardson didn't look great the last time out and his schedule gets much tougher soon as he will take on the Cleveland Guardians in his next turn in the rotation, and then it's likely to be the Kansas City Royals next. If not for the harder schedule, perhaps the mediocre stats will tell the tale. He is not even striking out eight batters per nine innings this year and his ground-ball rate has tumbled to under 37% this year. His expected ERA (xERA) is around 4.00, while his actual number this year is 3.75, so there might be some regression coming once he gets past the Chicago White Sox.
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