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Andy Smith's 9 fantasy baseball bold predictions for the 2025 MLB season, including predictions for Jordan Westburg, Justin Steele, Jasson Dominguez, and more.
Welcome back RotoBallers, to another edition of our team's bold predictions series. The MLB season is just around the corner, and it is the perfect time to make my bold predictions.
In this piece, I will make at least one bold prediction for each position and two for the larger player pool positions, such as outfield and starting pitcher. While these predictions might seem quite impossible, they are grounded in reality and have a viable path to coming true.
Let's dive into my nince bold predictions for 2025 fantasy baseball. Don't forget to check out other longshot picks from RotoBaller's MLB team as part of our yearly Bold Predictions series.
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J.T. Realmuto Is The Most Valuable Catcher Based On ADP
After years of being the consensus top catcher in all fantasy formats, J.T. Realmuto has fallen into the "lower-end" No. 1 catcher range. On NFBC drafts, Realmuto is going off as the No. 10 option at the position with an ADP of 120.
However, I have been targeting Realmuto in all my drafts and confidently betting on a major bounce-back.
Realmuto underwent meniscus surgery in June but looked strong at the plate once he returned. From July 20 through the end of the season, Realmuto held a promising .273/.337/.451 line with 10 doubles and seven home runs. Across this 48-game stint, he tallied 27 RBI with 22 runs and a 15:42 BB:K.
During this stint, among catchers who logged at least 190 plate appearances, Realmuto held the fourth-highest wOBA and fourth-highest batting average.
Before his injury, Realmuto held a much lower .259/.302/.398 line with just eight doubles and six home runs across 49 contests.
Even though he did not run as much, he still placed in the 79th percentile in sprint speed.
With a healthy offseason and lack of proven option behind him, Realmuto has a path to not only finish near the top of the position in plate appearances but also in all five categories.
Josh Naylor Leads The Majors In RBI
Josh Naylor's 108 RBI last summer were the eighth most in the major leagues. However, moving to a potent Arizona lineup puts Naylor in the position to lead the Majors in this category.
Naylor is now expected to bat behind Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte in the desert, which is an even better position than batting behind Steven Kwan, Andres Gimenez, and Jose Ramirez.
Last season, Naylor took a slight step back compared to his 2023 production but still placed above average in several hitting metrics. His .335 xwOBA, .257 xBA, and .443 xSLG placed him in the 72nd, 66th, and 71st percentile. He also generated an above-average 89.9 mph average exit velocity.
Chase Field in Arizona is more conducive for extra-base hits for left-handed batters compared to Progressive Field. Over the past two seasons, left-handed hitters have hit 106 doubles and 177 triples at Chase Field, while Progressive Field has only allowed 105 and 46, respectively.
Given Marte's elite on-base skills and Carroll's game-breaking speed, Naylor has 150+ RBI upside.
Jordan Westburg Goes 30/30
I have written about Jordan Westburg several times during the offseason and will take it up a notch. Westburg will not only enjoy a breakout campaign but will go 30/30 and be one of the most valuable players in fantasy baseball.
Last season, Westburg went deep 18 times and swiped six bags. He generated an elite .353 xwOBA, .491 xSLG, and an 11.8 percent barrel rate, which suggests that his power production could soar with the modifications to the left field wall of Camden Yards.
When looking at his speed, the Mississippi State product placed in the 91st percentile in sprint speed.
With an improved home venue that is more supportive of right-handed power bats and elite sprint speed, Westburg has several outcomes where he is the fantasy MVP.
I can't stop drafting #Birdland Jordan Westburg. 💥
90th %ile xBA/xSLG, .264/.314/.481, 18 HRs (more to come w/ Camden Yards tweaks)
80th %ile barrel/hard-hit rates
92nd %ile sprint speed 🚀🔥
FIRE ME UP (93.6 ADP @TheReal_NFC )#FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/5Ht2BAY9QC— Andy Smith (@A_Smith_FS) January 27, 2025
Xavier Edwards Swipes 80+ Bases
Edwards joined the major league roster in late June and was a league-winner throughout most of the second half. Across 70 contests, Edwards held a .328/.397/.423 line with 12 doubles, five triples, and one home run. However, most of his fantasy value came with his speed.
He swiped an incredible 31 bags over this stretch. Across a 162-game pace, Edwards would have swiped 72 bases.
Given his elite 10.9 percent walk rate and 17.9 percent strikeout rate, Edwards should be on base quite often and be in a position to showcase his elite speed. He is slated to be the team's leadoff hitter and will likely be given the green light on a daily basis.
In a full-time role, Edwards will swipe over 80 bases.
Xavier Edwards records his THIRD triple of the ballgame.
He is now 3-for-5 with three triples and four RBI. pic.twitter.com/pajhawQo12
— Isaac Azout (@IsaacAzout) September 28, 2024
Isaac Paredes Hits 40+ Home Runs
Let's make this one quick. Earlier in the offseason, the Houston Astros acquired infielder Isaac Paredes, among others, from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for outfielder Kyle Tucker. After a disappointing stint in Chicago, Paredes is poised to return to form by playing in a ballpark suitable for right-handed hitters.
When playing in Tampa Bay, Paredes went deep 31 times in 2023 and was on pace to hit 25 round-trippers in 2024, if he played his entire campaign in Tampa Bay. However, if Paredes were to play his 2024 season in Houston, he would have gone deep 26 times, his highest number according to Statcast.
Looking at his spray chart, Paredes could see his power numbers reach a new level. Having great protection in the lineup with Jose Altuve batting in front of him and Yordan Alvarez behind him, the 26-year-old carries 40+ HR upside in 2025.
Jasson Dominguez Runs Away With AL Rookie Of The Year
Once viewed as a consensus top prospect, injuries have halted his eventual breakout. As a result, Dominguez became slightly forgotten in drafts and carried a surprisingly low 144.6 ADP. However, with a path to hold a full-time role at the start of the regular season, Dominguez can not only be a great value in drafts but should also be the clear front-runner for AL Rookie of the Year.
Across 53 career games at Triple-A, the "Martian" has held a stellar .320/.391/.495 line with seven home runs and 22 stolen bases. Through 352 career games in the minor leagues, the switch-hitter has posted a .274/.373/.444 line.
The 22-year-old could also become their leadoff hitter, providing him an elite number of plate appearances. With elite on-base skills and a strong power and speed combination, Dominguez could quite nicely fill the void that Juan Soto left and be a must-start fantasy option all summer.
Jung Hoo Lee Wins NL Batting Title
Jung Hoo Lee was enjoying a strong start to his MLB debut as he held a .262 AVG across his first 37 contests before suffering a shoulder injury. During this brief stint, Lee generated a stellar .278 xBA with a 9.6 percent whiff rate and an 8.2 percent strikeout rate.
When facing fastballs, he generated an impressive .283 xBA. Lee posted a strong .277 xBA against breaking balls.
The 26-year-old has already begun to move past this injury during the spring. Lee has posted an impressive .300/.400/.567 slash line with two doubles and two home runs.
Even though he faces tough competition in this league with Luis Arraez, Lee showed elite batting average upside and could take his skills to the next level in his sophomore campaign.
However, Lee is currently dealing with a back injury and could be in danger of missing Opening Day. His MRI revealed no structural damage, suggesting his absence will likely be short. While an injury could limit his chances of claiming the batting title, for now, this injury does not appear to be serious.
Tyler Glasnow Leads The Majors In Strikeouts
When on the mound, Tyler Glasnow is one of the most valuable pitchers in fantasy baseball. However, he is rarely on the mound for an entire season.
Since 2020, Glasnow has held a cumulative 34.4 percent strikeout rate, which is the third-highest during this stretch among starting pitchers, only behind Jacob deGrom and Spencer Strider.
Last season, Glasnow generated a 32.2 percent strikeout rate (95th percentile) with a 30.9 percent whiff rate (85th percentile). His slider and curveball were elite swing-and-miss pitches, generating a 40.4 percent and 47.5 percent whiff rate, respectively.
While he has only logged over 130 innings once since 2020, he enters the regular season healthy, which is all fantasy managers can ask for. He is worth an investment at his 105.5 ADP, and if he can stay on the bump, he should be in a prime position to lead the majors in punchouts.
Have a day, Tyler Glasnow!
He finishes his 8th shutout inning with his 10th strikeout! pic.twitter.com/HTG89AlnjG
— MLB (@MLB) April 21, 2024
Justin Steele Wins The NL Cy Young
Justin Steele enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2023, finishing fifth in NL Cy Young voting. During that season, the southpaw held a 3.06 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP across 173 1/3 innings. He tallied 176 punchouts with a strong 6.7 percent walk rate.
However, in 2024, he battled numerous injuries and was limited to just 134 2/3 innings.
Despite the drop in innings, Steele enjoyed similar production, suggesting he should return to his Cy Young form in 2025. In fact, comparing his production last season to 2023, he generated a 2.74 xERA and .212 xBA, which were improvements compared to 2023.
He also cut his barrel rate by one point (5.4 percent - 4.2 percent) and his hard-hit rate by three (36.6 percent - 33.2 percent).
More importantly, his sinker showed significant improvement which could be the driving force behind his Cy Young season. In 2024, his sinker generated a .239 xwOBA with a 36.4 percent put-away rate, which was much better than the .334 xwOBA and 18.2 percent put-away rate it generated in 2023.
Steele is one of my favorite value picks at his 131.4 ADP.
Why Justin Steele will return to Cy Young form in 2025
🧵🪡 #FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/Ntse8cIAz4— Andy Smith (@A_Smith_FS) February 6, 2025
Jeremiah Estrada Is The Waiver-Wire Pickup Of The Season
Jeremiah Estrada caught significant attention last season when he tallied an incredible 94 punchouts across a career-high 64 innings. He held a 2.95 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP. He generated a 2.53 xERA (97th percentile) with a .187 xBA (96th percentile).
In addition, he placed in the 99th percentile with his stellar 33.7 percent strikeout rate.
Why will he be the waiver wire pickup of the season? First, the "established" closer in front of him does not have extended MLB success outside of his breakout 2024 season. Last summer, Robert Suarez tallied 36 saves across 65 innings. However, he totaled just 75 1/3 combined innings over his first two MLB seasons.
In addition, in 2024, Suarez generated a low amount of strikeouts for a closer. He placed in the 49th percentile in strikeout rate and 35th percentile in hard-hit rate, which suggests he may face significant regression.
While Jason Adam could also compete for save opportunities if Suarez struggles, do not be surprised if the Padres turn to the elite strikeout option in Estrada. If Estrada were to slide into the ninth-inning role, he could very well be one of the most valuable relief pitchers to roster.
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