Thursday Night Football Starts and Sits: Rams vs Seahawks

October 7, 2021

Fantasy football starts/sits and lineups advice for the Los Angeles Rams (3-1) vs Seattle Seahawks (2-2) Thursday Night game in Week 5. Ellis analyzes the TNF matchups with a detailed breakdown.

What a cracking matchup we have lined up for this Thursday. Both of these teams are playing their second divisional game in a row, however, they have very different trajectories. Coming off a divisional beat down, the Rams look to bounce back on the road, while the Seahawks were able to take care of business against the 49ers last week. Over the last two years, we have seen both teams win twice against each other, splitting their regular-season rivalry. The narrative carries over this Thursday as we start Week 5.

That’s right, it’s already Week 5. All of a sudden we are officially into the heart of the fantasy football season and that means trades are happening. Whether you are looking to bounce-back or continue your success, this next stretch of the season is where championships are formed. 

Before we get too ahead of ourselves, fantasy football is taken one week at a time. This includes starting your week on the right foot every Thursday. Once again, I thank you all for starting your week with my analysis and I wish you all the best for Week 5. So without further ado, here is your RotoBaller Thursday Night Preview.

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

8:20 pm EST 

Notable Injuries:

• Chris Carson (RB, SEA) - Neck - Out
• Carlos Dunlap II (LB, SEA) - Toe - Questionable
• D.K. Metcalf (WR, SEA) - Foot - Questionable
• Darrell Henderson (RB, Rams) - Ribs - Questionable
• Tyler Higbee (TE, Rams) - Ankle - Questionable

Must-Starts

Russell Wilson (QB, SEA): This Seattle offense relies on Chef Wilson to keep them fed with fantasy points. Thankfully, after spending 10 years in the NFL kitchen, Wilson has learned a thing or two about being efficient. Widely regarded as one of the most efficient QBs in the league, Wilson is currently dishing out a TD on 8.3% of his attempts (fourth in the league). Typically, when you play with that kind of fire, you’re bound to get burned. Although the Rams are typically praised for their defense, they are currently allowing the seventh-most passing yards per game. This is great news for Wilson, who has averaged a cool 261 passing yards a game in 2021. Altogether, this is a perfect recipe to provide everything you need for a balanced meal. 

Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR): Sitting one spot ahead of Wilson as the QB8 on the season, Stafford has been great for fantasy. The pairing with offensive mastermind Sean McVay couldn’t be better. Stafford is currently second in passing touchdowns and fourth in passing yards. Plus, Seattle’s defense has been very porous, averaging the fourth-most passing yards against per game and two passing touchdowns a game. Coming off a game where the Rams were forced to take three field goals, Stafford will look to breathe life back into this passing attack. He is a great play this week in all formats. 

Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR): For the second time in his career, Kupp is absolutely lighting the world on fire to start the season. Kupp has been torching secondaries for over 100 yards and a touchdown per game this season. Although last week he only managed a mere 64 yards on five catches, he was targeted 13 times. That’s more than twice the targets of anyone else on the team. Kupp is the WR3 on the season and is primed for a huge bounce back. So sit back, and watch the world burn (in a good way) this Thursday night. 

Darrell Henderson Jr. (RB, LAR): Henderson has been everything fantasy managers had hoped for in the absence of Cam Akers. His only concern is his ability to stay healthy. After missing Week 3 with a rib injury, he bounced back last week against the Cardinals. Last week, we saw him play 89% of running back snaps, showcasing that he is fully healthy despite being a limited participant at practice. Plus, he is currently averaging the 9th most fantasy points per game and gets to go against a Seahawks team that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position. Henderson is primed for a big day and could easily perform in RB1 territory.

Solid Options

D.K. Metcalf (WR, SEA): I’ll be honest, I’m a little worried about Metcalf this week. Of course, this doesn’t mean you consider benching him as his upside and big-play ability alone make him a “Must Start” every week. However, through the first four weeks, he is the WR17 in fantasy. This isn’t too concerning, but let’s flashback to last year where he was also the WR17 through weeks 9 to 17. Although WR17 is not catastrophic, it has now been 13 weeks where we have yet to see him be a consistent WR1. Now let’s talk about the matchup.

So far in Metcalf’s four career games against the Rams, he has averaged four receptions for 52 yards and 0.25 touchdowns. Yikes. This defense also held DeAndre Hopkins to four receptions for 67 yards last week. Thankfully, Jalen Ramsey has not been shadowing receivers as much this season, which is great news for Metcalf. Thankfully, this matchup is on Thursday. This means that if Metcalf does have a down week, you can still adjust your lineup accordingly. Despite my concerns, you can’t take him out of your lineup. All I am saying is that you might want to lower your expectations. He’s a “Solid Option” for Week 5.

Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA): If you look up “high-upside WR2/Flex play” in the dictionary, you find a picture of Tyler Lockett. Much like Metcalf, his big-play ability makes him worth a start each week for fantasy. However, piggy-backing off of my concerns for Metcalf, it might be a tough week for both receivers. Over his last four matchups with the Rams, Lockett is averaging four receptions, 51 yards, and 0.25 touchdowns. That’s one yard short of being identical to D.K. Metcalf over that span. I would play Lockett with the hopes that he can cash in a big play, however, history shows us that unless you need the upside, you might want to look elsewhere to start your week. After all, you can’t win your matchup on Thursday, but you can certainly lose it.

Flex Considerations

Chris Carson and Alex Collins (RB, SEA): With Carson failing to practice both Monday and Tuesday, there is a real chance he misses this game with a neck injury. If he is out, Alex Collins immediately jumps into the “Solid Options” section as he has looked quite good in his limited work so far this season. Collins is coming off his best game of the season, as he had 4.4 yards per carry on 10 attempts and found the endzone in Week 4. The Rams are middle of the pack in rushing yards allowed, however, they are averaging 1.5 rushing touchdowns a game. If this backfield is a one-man-show, Collins could find himself as an RB2 on the week.

Before we get too excited about Collins’ potential opportunity, Carson might be able to play. If this is the case, Collins is too risky to be started in any format. In this scenario, I would still only consider Carson a Flex option as his last two weeks have been underwhelming. Failing to reach 50% of snaps and 15 attempts in each of the last two weeks, there is reason to be concerned that something isn’t right. I think fantasy managers should hope for Carson to rest up this week with hopes he can return healthy next week and provide clarity for this Thursday night.

UPDATE: Carson has officially been ruled out.

Robert Woods (WR, LAR): So far this season, the ol’ reliable Bobby Trees has failed to return value on his draft cost. I guess with a name like Woods, you are susceptible to some damage when Cooper Kupp is lighting the world on fire. Thankfully, this Rams passing attack could be powerful enough to support multiple options. With defenses looking to prioritize Kupp, Woods could see an increase in opportunities in the following weeks. Plus, McVay came out and said that he will look to involve Woods more. Who knows if McVay is telling the truth, but last week Woods was able to bring in a last-second touchdown with the game completely out of control.

With Seattle averaging two passing touchdowns a game, I’m going to make one of my bolder claims this season. I think Woods will open the Pie Shop* and find the endzone for a second straight week. However, this still doesn’t make him any more than a flex play in 10+ team leagues. 

*Pie Shop: An Australian term (often used in Rugby League) to describe who will score a Try (or in this case touchdown) this week.

Consider Sitting

Van Jefferson (WR, LAR): There is definitely a reason to be excited for the jump that Jefferson has made in his second year. However, he is lacking the consistency and proven ability to chase the fantasy points and play him this week. I would not look at him outside of a DFS play this week.

Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR): After looking very promising to start the year, Higbee has been wildly mediocre. Although he has failed to top over 40 yards in any of his last three games, he is always a threat to find the endzone. As a result, he is no more than a streaming option at the position. If you were able to grab Dawson Knox or Dalton Schultz off your waivers, I would look to sit Higbee in Week 5. 

With another week in the books, we find ourselves dead-even against the spread (2-2) and on a hot streak on over/under picks (4-0). This week we have a fantastic game, with two teams that always seem to play each other close. I see the Rams doing everything they can to not fall to 0-2 against divisional opponents. However, playing Seattle at Lumen field is never easy, especially coming off a big divisional win. With this in mind, it’s time for my picks. Thanks again for joining me this week, and Happy Canadian Thanksgiving!

Ellis’ Picks: Los Angeles -2.5 (2-2), Under 54.5 (4-0)

Career record: Spread (11-11), Over/Under (13-9)

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