FAB Bidding - Week 3 Waiver Wire Targets

September 21, 2021

Nick's fantasy football waiver wire FAB bidding recommendations for Week 3. How many FAB dollars (free agent budget) to spend on fantasy waivers, formerly FAAB.

Joining our famous waiver wire pickups list, and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Budget (FAB). Week 2 usually serves up humble pie to those who saw Week 1 and went, "Oh, now I get it...I'll just make a little adjustment and be golden." Not so fast! We had injuries and underwhelming performance mount up, so now what? Let's find out.

As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable cause for a manual override.

It's difficult to toe the line between appropriate action and overreaction, but following context-aware volume is typically the best strategy. Will you be an aggressor early, looking to score those league-winners as they emerge? Or do you hold onto more funds in 2021 given the enhanced uncertainty with player availability? Whatever your attitude, here's my median FAB bid ranges and adds heading into Week 3.

Editor's Note: Be sure to also read our other Week 3 waiver wire articles for even more in-depth waiver wire analysis on running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, quarterbacks, defenses, kickers and players to consider dropping.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Quarterbacks

Daniel Jones (QB, NYG) - FAB Bid: 3-6%

19% rostered

Jones is absorbing all of that Ryan Fitzpatrick energy with his frantic energy in the pocket on a subpar Giants team. The youngster has only produced 267 and 249 passing yards with one touchdown in each game thus far, but a 15-122-2 rushing line elevates his fantasy potential. Imagine if that other long rush TD negated by a soft penalty would’ve counted? He has enough athleticism to float top-12 potential in a battle of struggling teams against Atlanta in Week 3.

remember when Daniel Jones recorded the fastest speed in the NFL last year and then we, as a society, collectively erased it from our memory

— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) September 17, 2021

Derek Carr (QB, LV) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

26% rostered

Despite some lower leg injury and uphill matchups against Baltimore and Pittsburgh, Carr enters Week 3 with 817 passing yards and four touchdowns against just one INT. He didn’t need Josh Jacobs to threaten with a rushing attack either, as Darren Waller continues to be the alpha while his young wideouts develop.

Teddy Bridgewater (QB, DEN) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

17% rostered

Bridgewater threw for 328 yards and two scores as Courtland Sutton danced all over the Jacksonville secondary. We saw Mr. Patrick step up with a score to help replace the injured Jerry Jeudy, while both Noah Fant and Albert Okwuegbunam are dynamic with the ball in their hands. I know JAX was a soft matchup, but that keeps rolling in Week 3 against the Jets.

Taylor Heinicke (QB, WAS) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

4% rostered

Heinicke showed resolve in leading a game-winning drive over the Giants on Thursday to cap off a 336-yard night. He’s now completed 45-of-61 passes in 2021 and has no problem feeding Terry McLaurin. His ceiling is likely capped at 2QB-league intrigue without breakaway speed, and Week 3 at Buffalo is frightful, but voluminous passing days loom against Atlanta, New Orleans, Kansas City, and Green Bay in the following weeks.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Running Backs

Cordarrelle Patterson (RB/WR, ATL) - FAB Bid: 10-15%

12% rostered

Patterson only had 23 snaps to Mike Davis’ 42 and 15 routes run to Davis’ 28 -- so roughly half of the workload -- but saw an equal 13 touches. Most importantly, Patterson saw red-zone work that included a nifty one-handed snag out of the backfield. His versatility makes him a dangerous weapon if Atlanta can figure out how to consistently deploy him (not a given). The Falcons face both NY teams and Washington before their Week 6 bye, so add Patterson in case the Falcons truly learn how to utilize CPatt.

This is how Cordarrelle Patterson was supposed to be used out of college, and I have to credit Arthur Smith for getting him involved. He has easily been Atlanta’s best offensive player in 2021

— SportsTalkATL Jake (@cantguardjake) September 19, 2021

Kenneth Gainwell (RB, PHI) - FAB Bid: 6-10%

36% rostered

Gainwell registered eight touches and a two-point conversion in Week 2, with only 32 yards excusable on a day where Philly only scored 11 points. Boston Scott went without a touch yet again, showing that the dynamic rookie is the clear No. 2 heading into big battles with Dallas and Kansas City in the coming weeks.

Alexander Mattison (RB, MIN) - FAB Bid: 3-5%

32% rostered

Cook suffered an ankle injury against Arizona and though he was able to bounce in and out of the game, we will surely be sweating practice reports and workload concerns entering Week 3. Mattison may have been cut in your league for a flashy waiver add after Week 1, but this is why he’s one of the best backups to stash.

James White (RB, NE) - FAB Bid: 3-4%
J.D. McKissic (RB, WAS) - FAB Bid: 2-3%

42% rostered / 29% rostered

That rostered gap is the product of being a “known” player such as White compared to what many view as a one-year “wonder” in McKissic, especially after his poor Week 1. But McKissic saw six targets in Week 2 -- the same as White -- and delivered 83 yards on five catches (White caught all six targets for 45 yards). Both receiving backs also delivered a rushing TD, once again proving they can convert those if needed.

Demetric Felton (RB/WR, CLE) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

0% rostered

Felton had some elusive highlights on his two catches for 51 yards, providing Cleveland with some jump after Jarvis Landry joined Odell Beckham Jr. on the injury train. The 211th overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft has some Cordarrelle Patterson to his game, as evidenced by the RB/WR dual eligibility and nifty 33-yard score. Should Landry and OBJ remain out for Week 3 against Chicago then Felton could have another opportunity to earn more playing time.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Wide Receivers

Rondale Moore (WR, ARI) - FAB Bid: 10-15%

33% rostered

Moore led the Cardinals with 114 yards in Week 2, charged by a 77-yard reception where he was left wide open on a Kyler Murray scramble. It won’t be the last time Murray’s moves allow a wideout to shake his coverage. Christian Kirk still hit 65 yards and A.J. Green got a touchdown, with Moore’s 28 snaps and 24 routes run sitting fourth. But eight targets points to some manufactured looks for the rookie, including his little pop-pass sweep where he fumbled (the play was wiped by a penalty). Monitor his usage as it creeps higher in this powerful offense.

Most receiving yards all-time through a 21 year old WRs first two career games:

T1. Stefon Diggs - 216
T1. DeSean Jackson - 216
3. Randy Moss - 184
4. DeAndre Hopkins - 183
5. Rondale Moore - 182

Rondale Moore is having a historic start to his career so far.

— Dalton Kates (@DaltonGuruFF) September 20, 2021

K.J. Osborn (WR, MIN) - FAB Bid: 10-15%

2% rostered

The Vikings needed Osborn in a high-scoring affair against Arizona and he came through, unlike Greg Joseph (sorry, Minny fans). Osborn would house a 64-yard TD in the first quarter and now has 167 yards through two games with a respectable 15 targets. Typically, I’d caution raising expectations too high but Week 3’s game with Seattle should demand plenty of passing, especially if Dalvin Cook isn’t 100%.

Henry Ruggs III (WR, LV) - FAB Bid: 10-12%
Bryan Edwards (WR, LV) - FAB Bid: 5-6%

34% rostered / 22% rostered

Ruggs flashed his ceiling with a 61-yard touchdown catch to fuel his 113-yard day, but it was Edwards who led the Raiders in snaps (49) and routes run (34). That doesn’t console many given his lowly three targets and 3-40-0 line, but he also lost a 15-yard catch as well as a touchdown to penalties. After being tackled just shy of a hero TD in Week 1, variance will swing Edwards’ way soon given the usage. Ruggs remains a maddening boom-bust mold but each boom yields hope for momentum.

Zach Pascal (WR, IND) - FAB Bid: 8-12%

16% rostered

Pascal now has three TDs in his first two games of 2021, but he only has 11 targets and Michael Pittman Jr. reminded us all that he’s the No. 1 WR. But Parris Campbell was out and seemingly can’t stay healthy, leaving Pascal as a reliable No. 2 for a team that refuses to commit to Jonathan Taylor. The intrigue for Pascal (and all Colts) dips if Carson Wentz is out with ankle injuries, however.

Tim Patrick (WR, DEN) - FAB Bid: 5-10%

22% rostered

Patrick’s reliability is keeping him ahead of K.J. Hamler, who had another ugly drop that will keep him lower on the depth chart. Week 2 saw Patrick catch three-of-four targets for 37 yards and a score -- a near carbon copy of Week 1’s 4-39-1 line -- as he looks like a steady No. 3 option for Teddy Bridgewater. It ain’t much, but it’s honest work for deeper formats.

Van Jefferson (WR, LAR) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

2% rostered

I know Jefferson’s one catch for 14 yards is disappointing, but he played as a true starter with 54 snaps and 32 routes run. Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods each had 32 and 31 routes run, respectively, though Jefferson remains a clear third in the read order. If Darrell Henderson’s rib injury proves serious then Jefferson may be sorely needed in a pass-happy Week 3 versus Tampa Bay.

Cedrick Wilson (WR, DAL) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

1% rostered

Wilson only saw the field on 60% of the snaps given to Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb (36 to their 60) and generated three touches with 19 routes run. Week 2 wound up being far grittier than anticipated, with Tony Pollard being the standout for Dallas. Don’t let Wilson get away, but they seemed to shy from deploying full three-wide sets that frequently in a tighter game.

James Washington (WR, PIT) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

1% rostered

Washington has a chance similar to Cedrick Wilson’s -- that is, stepping into a No. 3 WR role on a team that regularly utilizes three-wide sets. Diontae Johnson got hurt on the last play of their nine-point loss, though NFL Network’s Mike Garofolo says Johnson skirted anything major. We may still see him miss a week or be limited for Week 3. As for Washington, he’d requested a trade prior to the season yet remains in Pittsburgh. Perhaps he can put forth an audition that’ll draw offers against a below-average Cincinnati secondary.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Tight Ends

Evan Engram (TE, NYG) - FAB Bid: 3-4%

32% rostered

Engram has missed Big Blue’s first two games after NYG flirted with placing him on the injured reserve before the season began for his calf injury. After missing Week 1, a TNF short-turnaround seemed unlikely for Week 2, but not placing him on IR may hint at a Week 3 return against an Atlanta team that surrendered a pair of scores to Gronk and a combined 76 yards with a TD for Philly’s TE duo.

Evan Engram was practicing in the portion open to the media. Was moving pretty well. Seems like a good chance he plays this week. #Giants

— Zack Rosenblatt (@ZackBlatt) September 20, 2021

Jared Cook (TE, LAC) - FAB Bid: 2-3%

43% rostered

Cook had a touchdown called back that really would’ve spiced up his box score. Alas, we are stuck with a 3-28-0 clunker despite the premium matchup against Dallas. The game was lackluster all-around, but Cook will have another chance to perform in a shootout when LAC takes on KC in Week 3.

Maxx Williams (TE, ARI) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

0% rostered

Williams may look like a hot ticket after hauling in all seven targets for 94 yards but let’s take a minute here. Williams has made a career out of blocking, not receiving, and Arizona has rarely targeted their TE with any consistency. Given they have two viable running backs, a quarterback who is also their best RB anyway, and four solid wideouts, I would exercise caution here even as an easy matchup versus Jacksonville looms.

A few other quick hits come to mind:

Blake Jarwin (TE, DAL, 12% rostered): More routes run + targets than Schultz despite a 29-to-45 snap count; they’ll likely cannibalize one another but Jarwin is my lean. Same with Adam Trautman (10%) and Juwan Johnson (37%).
Pat Freiermuth (TE, PIT, 7% rostered): The rookie caught four looks for 36 yards while Eric Ebron was goosed. This may yield momentum but another likely 1A/1B headache.
Dawson Knox (TE, BUF, 6% rostered): Low ceiling, but 41 yards in Wk 1 and a TD in Wk 2. Worse wagons to toss a dart at than a potent BUF one.
Jack Doyle (TE, IND, 1% rostered): Vintage Doyle with 5-64-0 and a 2-pt conversion on eight targets. Could be useful again if TEN drags IND into a Wk 3 shootout.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Defense/Special Teams

Let me lead by pointing out that Baltimore was dropped in roughly 30% of Yahoo leagues due to their matchup with the Chiefs. Now, they get Detroit. Move accordingly. Arizona is also at 51% rostered and is a priority against Jacksonville.

Carolina Panthers Defense (at HOU) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

19% rostered

The Panthers just held the Saints to a touchdown and now get to tee off on Davis Mills and the Texans with a short-week Thursday matchup? Yes, please.

Las Vegas Raiders Defense (vs. MIA) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

2% rostered

After holding Baltimore to 27 points through overtime (with three sacks and two turnovers), the Raiders went into Pittsburgh and limited Big Ben to just 17 points. Now, they draw a Miami squad that’s likely turning to Jacoby Brissett after Tua Tagovailoa suffered an ankle injury.

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