Ellis' Essential Players for 2021

September 3, 2021

Ellis' favorite fantasy football draft targets for the 2021 season. From undrafted QBs to predicting this year's WR1, these are his must-have fantasy draft picks.

The 2021 season is coming in hot and it’s flag-planting time in the fantasy community. This year, I am very grateful to be doing the weekly RotoBaller Thursday Night Preview, as well as season-long FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranking and True North Fantasy Football content creator. Before I get into some of my favorite players for 2021, I would like to thank the entire fantasy community for all their support over the last few years. Specifically, I would like to thank The King, Scott Engel (@scottetheking), Michael Florio (@MichaelFFlorio), Alex Roberts, and Pierre Camus (@RotoChef) for supporting and distributing my work on both the Rotoballer website and XM radio show.

I would also like to thank Trav (@TSteel14) and Ty (@TNfFtyrell) from True North Fantasy Football (@TrueNorthFFB) for creating awesome Canadian fantasy content. Lastly, I would like to thank Jon Ebanks and FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) for featuring my work and supporting a young Canadian kid such as myself. Truly, you are all amazing and I can't express my gratitude for the entire fantasy community. 

Now, back to the analysis. You can find my rankings and 2021 statistical projections for every player on my Twitter account @YoitsEllis_FF. Without further ado, here are my favorite players for the 2021 season.

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)

The 2021 season is forecasting clear skies and a limitless ceiling for bounce-back specialist Lamar Jackson. It still doesn’t feel fair to project a quarterback for 1,000 rushing yards in a season, which is a milestone Jackson should hit for a third consecutive year. The Ravens, however, think there is further unpacked potential to Jackson’s game as they have drafted two consecutive first-round receivers. These selections came after the Ravens were reaching out to all free-agent receivers with a pulse in the offseason. Unfortunately, they only landed Sammy Watkins.

This team wants to expand its passing game, and with its lead running back being out for the season, it’s time for Lamar to step up to the plate. PFF is projecting Lamar to pass for a career-high 3,790 yards in 2021. Not only will he be swinging for the fences in the passing game, but the loss of J.K Dobbins could easily provide the opportunity for increased rushing touchdowns. Who doesn’t love a good bounce-back story?

Ellis’ Projected Season Totals: 1168 rush yds, 3,402 pass yds, 13 INT, 9 rush TD, 29 pass TD, QB1

Taylor Heinicke (QB, WAS)

From former MVP Lamar Jackson to undrafted free-agent Taylor Heinicke, I’m planting my flag all over the place this offseason. This kid can ball. After passing for 306 yards and a score and rushing six times for 46 yards and another score in their 2021 wild card loss, Heinicke had hands down the best playoff performance against the Super Bowl-winning Buccaneers in 2020. Then, this offseason, all reports out of camp were that Heinicke showed up ready to play and compete for the starting job. Unfortunately, the Football Team acquired living legend Ryan Fitzpatrick this offseason to be their starter.

However, Fitzpatrick has missed multiple games every season since 2015. I project this trend to continue, opening the door for Heinicke to receive starting time this season. When this happens, the Football Team will have no reason to turn away from him if he performs admirably. Based on his previous playoff start, mobility, and a great camp, I don’t think this is that outlandish of a projection. The Football Team may have found themselves a gem in the 28-year-old QB and may need a little Fitzmagic mentorship to realize his potential. 

Ellis’ Projected Season Totals: 6 games, 1,109 passing yds, 203 rush yds, 8 INT, 4 rush TD, 9 passing TD, QB33

Running Back

Aaron Jones (RB, GB)

It wouldn’t be a true offseason if I wasn’t hyping Aaron Jones. After securing the bag this offseason, Jones heads into 2021 as one of the league’s best backs on one of the league’s best offenses. Jones is coming off back-to-back top-five fantasy finishes and finds himself in what could be argued to be his best situation yet. Jamaal Williams has departed to Detroit, leaving backfield duties to Jones and 2020 second-round pick A.J. Dillon. Dillon is a very interesting option as he is built like a bus and has displayed flashes in his young career.

However, Jones has never relied on rushing volume to be an elite rusher. We’ve seen enough games to know that Jones’ efficiency is legit and will continue through the 2021 season. Where Jones will look to make the biggest gain is in the passing game. Considering he finished 2020 with the ninth most targets at the position, any increase would immediately launch him towards elite receiving back territory. The math is on the wall, and there is no need for Janitor Matt Damon to have to calculate it for you: Jones is a top-five back for 2021. 

Ellis’ Projected Season Totals: 1,289 rush yds, 504 rec yds, 58 rec, 5 rec TD, 10 rush TD, RB3

David Montgomery (RB, CHI)

With one of the least exciting flag plants in the history of Ellis’ Essentials, Montgomery begrudgingly makes the list. Okay, maybe that’s a little harsh, but it’s hard to be excited for a player like Montgomery. His current ADP has managed to climb to RB16, and I still think that this is too low for last year’s RB4. Flashback to the final six weeks of the 2020 season where Montgomery averaged 100 yards rushing, 1.3 touchdowns, and 38 receiving yards.

Now, there are two main arguments that get tossed around to discredit his elite production. The first being that Tarik Cohen was injured, which now heading into 2021, Cohen finds himself on the PUP and set to miss the first few games. Although Damien Williams is an effective pass catcher, the team found success passing to Montgomery in 2020 and should increase his targets regardless.

The second rationale for his success is that he had a cake-walk of a schedule over the last six weeks. Although true, if you rank the defenses he faced over that time based on average rushing yards allowed per game, he faced an average of the 24th-ranked defense. Interestingly, there was another running back who exploded for fantasy over the final six weeks of the season while facing the 24th-ranked defense based on the previous metric. That back currently has an ADP of RB10 and is named Jonathan Taylor. Although I understand that Montgomery is not the same talent as Taylor, I believe he checks all the boxes to be a low-end RB1 this season.

Ellis’ Projected Season Totals: 1,201 rush yds, 340 rec yds, 42 rec, 2 rec TD, 9 rush TD, RB12

Wide Receiver

Calvin Ridley (WR, ATL)

What do Michael Thomas, Davante Adams, and Calvin Ridley all have in common? After the 2021 season, all three will have a WR1 season finish in fantasy. Yeah, you read that right. It’s no surprise that Ridley is one of the elite receivers in the NFL, but it’s the situation that moves the needle for me. Much like Thomas in 2019 and Adams in 2020, Ridley will become the primary target for one of the league's most pass-happy offenses. Matt Ryan has passed for 4,000+ yards every year since 2011.

With the abysmal run game of the Falcons, Ridley will look to take the lion's share of those yards. This should not be a surprise since Ridley averages near 100 yards per game without Julio Jones and has been prolific in the red zone. The caveat is that all these arguments can also be made for the reigning WR1, Davante Adams. However, there have only been two receivers to repeat WR1 finishes since 2004, Antonio Brown and Calvin Johnson. I wouldn’t overthink this one, Ridley as the 2021 WR1 just makes sense. 

Ellis’ Projected Season Totals: 1,671 yds, 112 rec, 12 TD, WR1 

Ja’Marr Chase (WR, CIN)

Does this feel like banging my head against a wall? Maybe. Am I still going to do it? Absolutely. For us Chase truthers, this preseason has felt like a nightmare. With Chase catching one of five targets in the preseason and dropping the other four, the alarms are starting to go off in the fantasy community. However, I’m going to hold firm despite everything saying to abandon ship. Practice clips have shown Chase performing at a level we were all hoping to see. This includes making powerful contested catches, dynamic ball adjustments, and most importantly, elite chemistry with Joe Burrow.

This team will be forced into negative game scripts thanks to their non-existent defense and tough schedule, giving Burrow every opportunity to feed his receivers. Chase has never struggled with drops in his college career, and while it is worrisome to see them in the preseason, if you watch his routes he is managing to get open. Personally, I’d rather see Chase get open and make NFL corners miss in the preseason than watch a rookie struggle to run successful routes and then drop the ball. Obviously, it would be ideal if he could both catch and dust NFL corners, which I think will come together during the season. *Ellis closes his computer and walks into the sunset in his rose-colored glasses*

Ellis’ Projected Season Totals: 1,159 yds, 80 rec, 8 TD, WR15

Josh Palmer (WR, LAC)

Brampton, Ontario’s own Josh Palmer has been making a splash in the NFL. Over the last two NFL drafts, a Canadian has been drafted as the 11th receiver off the board, the previous being Chase Claypool in the second round of 2020. That’s pretty cool. What might be cooler for the third-round pick is that Tyron Johnson was released from the team. This launches Palmer to become the fourth receiver on the depth chart, behind star receiver Keenan Allen, the fragile Mike Williams, and the undrafted Jalen Guyton.

It’s no surprise that the potential number two weapon for gun slinging Justin Herbert could easily become a fantasy starter. However, Mike Williams, despite playing 15 games, only finished as the WR45 in that role in 2020. Meanwhile, alongside Williams, Guyton and Johnson combined for six double-digit fantasy weeks.

This is not to say Palmer will outproduce Williams, especially since there has been a lot of hype with Joe Lombardi potentially implementing Williams in the Chargers' “X receiver role.”  However, Palmer should be able to take over as the third receiver on the depth chart soon enough, making him a Mike Williams injury away from fantasy relevance. Plus, in dynasty, Williams is on a contract year and might not be back next season. Keep an eye out for this kid as there’s a clear path if he continues to turn heads this season.

Ellis’ Projected Season Totals: 721 yds, 52 rec, 5 TD, WR62

Tight End

O.J. Howard (TE, TB)

After tearing his Achilles tendon in Week 4 of last season, O.J. Howard never had the chance to fulfill the 2020 post-hype sleeper dream. In his four games, Howard once again displayed his ability to be an elite offensive weapon, scoring two touchdowns and averaging five targets per game. In 2020, the Buccaneers were sixth in targets to the position, with Rob Gronkowski finishing as the TE8. Although a small sample size, considering Howard firmly outplayed Gronk and Cameron Brate when healthy, there is a real possibility he is Tom Brady's top TE on the season. Plus, Gronk played his first full season since 2011 last year, giving Howard a clear path to being a weekly fantasy starter.

Ellis’ Projected Season Totals:  595 rec yds, 55 rec, 5 TD, TE15

BONUS

The Rams Passing Attack

Give me every piece of this passing offense, but let’s start with the run game. We currently have Cam Akers suffering a devastating injury, Darrell Henderson Jr. having durability concerns, and Sony Michel coming off two years of mediocre performances. This doesn’t give me confidence in the run game, and I think describing Michel as mediocre might have been generous. Even though their defense may create game scripts that provide the opportunity to run, I think Matthew Stafford may have other plans. Sean McVay doubled down and secured what he believes to be a Super Bowl-winning move acquiring Stafford.

Stafford has been known to sling the rock and has supported fantasy stalwarts such as Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate, Kenny Golladay, and Marvin Jones Jr. Now, he gets to work under the best head coach in his career with two top receiving options. Enter Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. This dynamic duo will look to feast with Stafford at the helm. In what could be argued to be a better version of Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones, Woods and Kupp will gobble up yardage and serve up touchdowns all season. Last but not least, Tyler Higbee has showcased his ability to be an offensive force in the league and has now broken free from sharing the work with Gerald Everett. Higbee should be on the field for almost every play as their top blocking and receiving tight end. Give me every bit of his skill set paired with a QB who loves to pass in the red zone.  

Ellis’ Projected Season Totals:

• Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR): 4,509 pass yds, 84 rush yds, 8 INT, 1 rush TD, 41 pass TD, QB7
• Robert Woods (WR, LAR): 1,241 rec yds, 135 rush yds, 101 rec, 6 rec TD, 2 rush TD, WR9
• Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR): 1,109 rec yds, 20 rush yds, 88 rec, 12 rec TD, WR10
• Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR): 610 rec yds, 51 rec, 10 TD, TE8

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