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As the 2021 MLB season approaches, it's a good time to take stock of the dynasty landscape. We've examined hitters at first base, second base, third base, shortstop, and outfield. Now it's time to dive into the player pool for starting pitchers.
Starters are increasingly difficult to project long-term with the steadily-increasing limitations being placed on young arms. We may not see the same level of pitch count or innings restrictions as we did in 2020, assuming the COVID chaos ever ends, but teams are still being cautious with their prospects. I tend to prioritize players with a greater likelihood to contribute sooner than future value, so bear that in mind.
Here are my dynasty SP rankings along with some thoughts on key players as spring creeps ever closer.
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Dynasty Starting Pitcher Rankings
Preseason Thoughts
First things first - age has no bearing on the top three starters and the order is the same regardless of redraft or dynasty. Shane Bieber might have a few years on Cole and deGrom but there's no way I can comfortably forecast him to repeat his 2020 performance or assure that he'll match the production of those two over the next couple of seasons. The short season and Centralized schedule (read: weaker offensive competition) do have some bearing on this but the projection systems agree. Bieber is forecast by ATC to post a mortal 3.19 ERA with an 11.39 K/9 that is slightly less than Cole and deGrom. Projecting wins is tricky but the Indians are trending down while the Mets and Yanks are in full win-now mode, so give the nod to the other two there as well.
There is some question as to whether Jack Flaherty is a legitimate ace but there shouldn't be. His 2020 ratios are ugly for an SP1 (4.91 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) but one outlier start against the Brewers single-handedly accounted for half of the runs he allowed all season; he didn't allow more than three ER in any other start. His batted-ball numbers took a dip in the shortened season but his Whiff rate remained strong as ever.
At 25 years old, Flaherty should hover around the top-five for a while.
Sixto Sanchez is a perfect example of how quickly fantasy players move on to the next shiny new toy. The top prospect for Miami debuted early in 2020, pitched to a 3.46 ERA, 1.21 WHIP in his first seven Major League starts, and showed his trademark velocity while commanding the strike zone with a 7% BB%. Yet, some are jumping ship on him ever becoming an ace because his strikeout rate was slightly below league average in a 39-inning sample. Some are going so far as to make a Sandy Alcantara comp as a hard-throwing pitcher who doesn't induce enough whiffs. His 13% Swinging Strike suggests positive regression in K-rate. Plus, the whole being 22 years old and barely tasting the bigs might leave some room for improvement. He can't be treated like a surefire ace yet but this may be the time to buy rather than sell.
I really want to rank Dustin May higher because every time I watch him pitch, I feel like he's going to strike out the side. That hasn't been happening nearly at the clip we'd like to see, though. This is another case where fantasy managers are left wanting more but must be patient. He may start the year in the minors now that the Dodgers have a glut of starting pitchers but this also presents an opportunity to pounce on him in the trade market.
Jose Urquidy is a sabermetric enigma. His standard stats were great in 2020: 2.73 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and a 6.9% walk rate well below league average. His Statcast page screams "Fraud!"
While this may suggest luck was involved, other advanced indicators disagree with that notion. According to the Quality of Stuff metric developed by Ethan Moore and Eno Sarris, Urquidy's 114 QOS+ (league-average is 100) is among the best in the majors. His 110 Command+ is also superior. Although his strikeout rate took a nosedive last season, his track record indicates that shouldn't be a concern. Urquidy's value could be all over the place in fantasy leagues heading into 2021, so it's hard to assess the best course of action other than to hold if you have him.
Tyler Mahle is one of my favorite breakout candidates and I'm not the only one. Eric Samulski does a fantastic job breaking down his pitch profile here. At 26 years of age with just over 300 MLB innings of work under his belt, this is a strong hold in dynasty.
Luis Patino has an electric arm but will need to reel it in big-time to be an effective starter. He should be able to work on his control in the minors before getting another call-up, this time with the Rays. The biggest prize of the Blake Snell trade, Patino flashed his fastball that can top 100 on the radar gun while striking out 21 batters in 17 innings last year. He also walked 14 in that span. It will take some time before he effectively replaces Snell both in Tampa and in fantasy value but he has the stuff to do it. The concern is that he doesn't put it together consistently enough and gets relegated to the bullpen. If there's a team that can get the most out of its pitchers, however, it's the Rays.
Aaron Civale doesn't get the juices flowing like Zach Plesac, but maybe he will soon enough.
I'm not into hot takes or bold predictions, so this is what it is...
It wouldn't shock me if Aaron Civale has a better season than Zach Plesac.
— Todd Zola (@ToddZola) February 23, 2021
Civale will have to keep his ratios pretty low for the fantasy world to take notice because he isn't getting it done in the strikeout department. Civale's superb 5.9% BB% is offset by the meh of his 21.3% K% after two MLB seasons. His 106 Command+ is promising but nowhere near Zach Davies (120) or Kyle Hendricks (115) level, so he may not be the second coming of these undervalued SP. There isn't enough swing-and-miss in his minor league track record to suggest a big bump in K-rate either. Plesac's command was beyond superior last year, registering a 2.9% BB% bested only by Marco Gonzales and... Kyle Hendricks. Can he repeat his 91.7% strand rate? That remains to be seen but don't be surprised if slight regression comes to impact his ratios. His advantage over Civale remains the increased Ks.
At this point, Pirates fans probably don't even care anymore so we might as well orchestrate a trade out of the Steel City for Mitch Keller. Another promising pitching prospect who has flopped in the bigs, Keller posted a league-worst 6.94 SIERA and 20.7% BB% that was higher than his 18.9% K%. That's right, a negative K-BB%. He was one of only two starters with at least 20 IP in 2020 to pull off that feat. Maybe a new pitching coach and an improved infield defense (let's not discuss run support) will do the trick. Keller is supposedly tweaking his changeup to incorporate it more as well. Right now, Keller is nothing but a buy-low target that could be worth a flier.
Clarke Schmidt was a promising name entering spring training but he has an injury similar to "tennis elbow" that will shut him down for four weeks and eliminate any chance he might crack the rotation by Opening Day. The good news is that his UCL is clean and the injury is simply one from overuse and not an indication of a serious issue. His value will be depressed momentarily as a result of this injury but that may simply serve to make him a trade target in dynasty. The 25-year-old is the Yankees' No. 2 prospect.
Deeper Options to Watch
One of my favorite late-round sleepers this year is unsurprisingly one of my favorite dynasty targets as well. Adbert Alzolay isn't the top pitching prospect for the Cubbies - that would be Brailyn Marquez. He is the one that will make a splash in the majors first, though. Alzolay has fanned 42 hitters in his first 33 2/3 innings of work in the majors and will continue to parlay his fastball-slider combo into whiffs. His 112 QOS+ ranks 11th out of 200 in Eno Sarris' starting pitcher ranks. If the walk rate gets reduced, we have a potential frontline fantasy starter.
Hunter Greene is one of the hardest-throwing prospects out there, topping 100 MPH on the regular before TJS came calling in 2019. He was able to throw at Cincinnati's alternate site last season, however, and should be ready to get back on the mound full-time in 2021. His first spring appearance was noteworthy because he topped triple digits on the radar gun with each of his first three pitches. Then he gave up a single, HBP, and three-run blast. There will be command issues to iron out and the offspeed stuff needs to catch up to his heat in terms of effectiveness, but the ceiling remains sky-high and the lost year has suppressed his value.
Adrian Morejon projects as a starter long-term but should work in long relief for the Padres and their suddenly stacked rotation. Morejon relies mostly on his 97 MPH heater but also works in a curve-change-slider mix to keep hitters off balance. He struck out 31.6% of batters over 19 innings last year and has the ability to maintain that rate but it could also come with a high walk rate as evidenced by his minor league track record. In his first spring outing, Morejon issued three free passes over two innings, which is a bit ominous. Patience is key here.
The Cardinals sure hope Matthew Liberatore turns into something special, considering one of the players traded for him was Randy Arozarena. The 6'4" lefty is another prospect whose arrival will be delayed due to the cancellation of last year's minor league season. He has a strong four-pitch mix that includes a wicked curveball. Unlike many other pitching prospects, there are no current health concerns with Liberatore.
Cole Winn has similar stuff to Liberatore but from the right side. He potentially has four plus-pitches but his four-seamer and curve lead the way. Winn is just 21 and yet to pitch above Single-A so a late-2022 debut is the earliest I can imagine him sniffing the majors. He is a stash candidate to keep in mind, especially considering the way the new Globe Life Park plays more favorably to pitchers.
D.L. Hall is also yet to reach Double-A but at 22, he could advance quicker for a pitching (talent)-starved franchise. He was touted as the second-best lefty of the 2017 draft class behind Mackenzie Gore, boasting a fastball that reaches 99 now. Those looking to accumulate high-upside arms should seek out Hall now.
The Phillies will start Spencer Howard in the minors to work on the command issues that plagued him in 2020. There are a couple of other pitching prospects worth monitoring as well, though. Adonis Medina dominated the lower-level minors before taking a step back in Double-A, especially in strikeout rate. His offspeed stuff plays up but his mediocre fastball movement may cap his ceiling. Enyel De Los Santos doesn't have the ceiling of some of the blue-chip prospects listed above but he is a player worth watching. His early Major League experience hasn't been encouraging with a 5.70 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and 8.7% K-BB% over 30 innings. He has the frame to hold us as a starter and command isn't an issue. Mick Abel ranks as the organization's No. 2 prospect but he won't arrive until 2024, so extreme patience is required.
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