RADIO
Eli analyzes disappointing players from last week to find potential Week 12 fantasy football buy-lows, sleepers and risers based on play-calling and historical data.
This series continues into its eleventh week of where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.
In Week 11, we saw performances such as Jared Goff throwing for 376 yards, the Houston Texans running backs combining for 19 rushing yards, and the New Orleans Saints tight ends combining for 25 receiving yards. After these types of performances, it's important to look at each of these team's coaches and their play-calling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.
This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement in future weeks. Let's dive in!
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Improvements Ahead?
These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
Atlanta Falcons Running Backs
Dirk Koetter
Falcons lost 24-9 to their rival the New Orleans Saints. In this game, the Falcons running backs combined for 13 carries, 49 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, one reception (on two targets), three receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns.
After this performance, on the season the Atlanta Falcons running back room is averaging 24.1 carries, 92 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, 3.9 receptions (on 5.4 targets), 23.6 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns per game.
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs | |
| 2020 Atlanta Falcons (10 games) | 24.1 | 92 | 1 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 23.6 | 0 |
| Dirk Koetter Prior (208 games) | 22.36 | 92.65 | 0.63 | 4.88 | 6.38 | 38.12 | 0.17 |
Now let's compare this to what the Falcons offensive coordinator, Dirk Koetter, has traditionally gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Koetter has had his running back room average 22.36 carries, 92.65 rushing yards, 0.63 rushing touchdowns, 4.88 receptions (on 6.38 targets), 38.12 receiving yards, and 0.17 receiving touchdowns per game in the 208 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.
Looking at Sunday's game, it's apparent that the Falcons running backs underperformed relative to Dirk Koetter's previous success utilizing the position. However, the 2020 Falcons running back season totals are in the same ballpark as what we'd expect from a Dirk Koetter offense: running slightly above average in touchdowns and rushing attempts, but slightly below average in passing-game usage. There's probably not a huge buy-low situation here, but it's not a bad idea to check-in on the price of Todd Gurley after Sunday's poor performance.
Fantasy players this impacts: Todd Gurley, Ito Smith, and Brian Hill
New Orleans Saints Running Backs
Sean Payton & Pete Carmichael
The Saints won 24-9 against the Atlanta Falcons. In this game, the Saints running backs combined for 25 carries, 94 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, two receptions (on three targets), and 36 receiving yards.
After this performance, on the season the New Orleans Saints running back room is averaging 22.4 carries, 96.7 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, 8.1 receptions (on 9.7 targets), 77.8 receiving yards, and 0.4 receiving touchdowns per game.
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Tgts. | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs | |
| 2020 New Orleans Saints (10 games) | 22.4 | 96.7 | 1 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 77.8 | 0.4 |
| Sean Payton Prior (256 games) | 23.59 | 103.64 | 0.85 | 7.22 | 9.22 | 55.93 | 0.24 |
| Pete Carmichael Prior (176 games) | 22.82 | 103.72 | 0.82 | 7.66 | 9.64 | 59.53 | 0.31 |
Now let's compare this to what the Saints head coach, Sean Payton, has traditionally gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Payton has had his running back room average 23.59 carries, 103.64 rushing yards, 0.85 rushing touchdowns, 7.22 receptions (on 9.22 targets), 55.93 receiving yards, and 0.24 receiving touchdowns per game in the 256 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.
In addition, in the 176 games that Pete Carmichael had been an offensive coordinator prior to this season, Carmichael has had his running back room average 22.82 carries, 103.72 rushing yards, 0.82 rushing touchdowns, 7.66 receptions (on 9.64 targets), 59.53 receiving yards, and 0.31 receiving touchdowns per game.
Sunday's performance against the Atlanta Falcons was underwhelming for the New Orleans Saints running backs, but looking at the season as a whole they've been performing slightly above average from what we'd normally expect from a Sean Payton/Pete Carmichael running back room. This makes sense because Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray are a talented running back duo, so they should be able to maintain this level of production.
Fantasy players this impacts: Latavius Murray and Alvin Kamara
New Orleans Saints Tight Ends
Sean Payton & Pete Carmichael
The Saints won 24-9 against the Atlanta Falcons and in this victory the team's tight end room combined for two receptions on two targets for 25 receiving yards.
After this performance, on the season the Saints tight end room is averaging 3.6 receptions on 5.2 targets for 42.2 receiving yards and 0.6 receiving touchdowns per game.
| TE Rec. | TE Tgts. | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs | |
| 2020 New Orleans Saints (10 games) | 3.6 | 5.2 | 42.2 | 0.6 |
| Sean Payton Prior (256 games) | 4.88 | 7.32 | 53.53 | 0.45 |
| Pete Carmichael Prior (176 games) | 5.47 | 8.23 | 61.79 | 0.63 |
Now let's compare this to what the Saints head coach, Sean Payton, has traditionally gotten out of his tight end room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Payton has had his tight end room average 4.88 receptions on 7.32 targets for 53.53 receiving yards and 0.45 receiving touchdowns per game in the 256 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.
In addition, in the 176 games that Pete Carmichael had been an offensive coordinator prior to this season, Carmichael has had his tight end room average 5.47 receptions on 8.23 targets for 61.79 receiving yards and 0.63 receiving touchdowns per game.
The New Orleans Saints tight ends had a below-average game against the Atlanta Falcons. Looking at the 2020 New Orleans Saints tight ends, they are underperforming relative to Sean Payton and Pete Carmichael's career averages utilizing the position. However, over the last four years, the Saints coaches haven't utilized their tight ends very much and the 2020 season totals seem to be more in line with this time span. Not a huge buy-low situation here, but expect better performances from Sunday going forward.
Fantasy player this impacts: Jared Cook
Cincinnati Bengals Running Backs
Zac Taylor & Brian Callahan
The Bengals lost 20-9 against the Washington Football Team. In this game, the Bengals running backs combined for 14 carries, 37 rushing yards, five receptions (on seven targets), 39 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns.
After this performance, on the season the Bengals running back room is averaging 20.5 carries, 74.3 rushing yards, 0.6 rushing touchdowns, 5.7 receptions (on 7.2 targets), 39.6 receiving yards, and 0.3 receiving touchdowns per game.
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Tgts. | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs | |
| 2020 Cincinnati Bengals (10 games) | 20.5 | 74.3 | 0.6 | 5.7 | 7.2 | 39.6 | 0.3 |
| Zac Taylor Prior (21 games) | 21.05 | 81.14 | 0.43 | 4.10 | 5.48 | 32.86 | 0.14 |
| Brian Callahan (16 games) | 20.69 | 81.69 | 0.31 | 4.06 | 5.5 | 32.56 | 0.19 |
Now let's compare this to what the Bengals head coach, Zac Taylor, has traditionally gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Taylor has had his running back room average 21.05 carries, 81.14 rushing yards, 0.43 rushing touchdowns, 4.10 receptions (on 5.48 targets), 32.86 receiving yards, and 0.14 receiving touchdowns per game in the 21 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.
In addition, in the 16 games that Brian Callahan had been an offensive coordinator prior to this season, Callahan has had his running back room average 20.69 carries, 81.69 rushing yards, 0.31 rushing touchdowns, 4.06 receptions (on 5.5 targets), 32.56 receiving yards, and 0.19 receiving touchdowns per game.
Sunday's performance was disappointing for the Cincinnati Bengals running backs. But despite this bad game, on the season the group is actually outperforming what we're used to seeing from a Zac Taylor and Brian Callahan running back room. And while the small sample size for each of these coaches certainly played a factor into the low career averages prior to this season, with quarterback Joe Burrow out for the year the Bengals running backs are going to see a drop in production from their current production this season.
Fantasy players this impacts: Giovani Bernard, Samaje Perine, and Joe Mixon
Detroit Lions Running Backs
Darrell Bevell
The Detroit Lions failed to score a single point against the Carolina Panthers, losing 20-0. The Lions running backs combined for 13 carries, 35 rushing yards, two receptions (on six targets), 21 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns.
After this performance, on the season the Lions running back room is averaging 21 carries, 84.9 rushing yards, 0.7 rushing touchdowns, 5.2 receptions (on seven targets), 45.3 receiving yards, and 0.3 receiving touchdowns per game.
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs | |
| 2020 Detroit Lions (10 games) | 21 | 84.9 | 0.7 | 5.2 | 7 | 45.3 | 0.3 |
| Darrell Bevell Prior (208 games) | 24.06 | 104.92 | 0.73 | 4.20 | 5.63 | 35.75 | 0.14 |
Now let's compare this to what the Lions offensive coordinator, Darrell Bevell, has traditionally gotten out of his running back room in his time as an offensive coordinator. Bevell has had his running back room average 24.06 carries, 104.92 rushing yards, 0.73 rushing touchdowns, 4.2 receptions (on 5.63 targets), 35.75 receiving yards, and 0.14 receiving touchdowns per game in the 208 games he coached as an offensive coordinator prior to this season.
The Detroit Lions running backs struggled this past Sunday without D'Andre Swift, and we should expect better performances from this position group going forward. Looking at the season totals for this position group, they appear to be performing around the level we've come to expect from a Darrell Bevell running back room.
Fantasy players this impacts: Kerryon Johnson, D'Andre Swift, and Adrian Peterson
Detroit Lions Wide Receivers
Darrell Bevell
The Detroit Lions lost 20-0 against the Carolina Panthers. In the game, the Lions wide receivers combined for 11 receptions on 17 targets for 86 receiving yards.
After this performance, through the first ten games of the season, the Lions wide receiver room is averaging 11.9 receptions on 19.3 targets for 167.3 receiving yards and 0.9 receiving touchdowns per game.
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts. | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs | |
| 2020 Detroit Lions (10 games) | 11.9 | 19.3 | 167.3 | 0.9 |
| Darrell Bevell Prior (208 games) | 10.54 | 17.76 | 145.24 | 0.92 |
Now let's compare this to what the Lions offensive coordinator, Darrell Bevell, has traditionally gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time in as an offensive coordinator. Bevell has had his wide receiver room average 10.54 receptions on 17.76 targets for 145.24 receiving yards and 0.92 receiving touchdowns per game in the 208 games he coached as an offensive coordinator prior to this season.
The Detroit Lions wide receivers did not live up to the hype in Sunday's game against the Carolina Panthers, but their season totals as a whole are still above Darrell Bevell's career averages. While Bevell has embraced throwing to his wide receivers more over the last four seasons he's called plays, this is a situation to monitor because there's a possibility that there's a slight regression from the 2020 season wide receiver totals.
Fantasy players this impacts: Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Quintez Cephus, Danny Amendola, and Marvin Hall
Jacksonville Jaguars Wide Receivers
Doug Marrone & Jay Gruden
The Jacksonville Jaguars took their ninth straight loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers this past Sunday, losing 27-3. In this game the Jacksonville Jaguars wide receivers combined for seven receptions on 17 targets for 80 receiving yards.
After this performance, on the season the Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver room is averaging 14.2 receptions on 21.9 targets for 171.5 receiving yards and 1.1 receiving touchdowns per game.
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts. | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs | |
| 2020 Jacksonville Jaguars (10 games) | 14.2 | 21.9 | 171.5 | 1.1 |
| Doug Marrone Prior (144 games) | 11.65 | 20.26 | 160.24 | 1.01 |
| Jay Gruden Prior (133 games) | 12.11 | 20.11 | 156.13 | 0.96 |
Now let's compare this to what the Jaguars head coach, Doug Marrone, has historically gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Marrone has had his wide receiver room average 11.65 receptions on 20.26 targets for 160.24 receiving yards and 1.01 receiving touchdowns per game in the 144 games he coached as an offensive coordinator/head coach prior to this season.
In addition, in the 133 games that Jay Gruden had been an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season, Gruden has had his wide receiver room average 12.11 receptions on 20.11 targets for 156.13 receiving yards and 0.96 receiving touchdowns per game.
While the performance against Pittsburgh was disappointing for the Jaguars wide receivers, on the season they are still performing much better than the typical Doug Marrone or Jay Gruden wide receiver room. Expect better performances from Sunday, but there isn't much of a buy-low opportunity here.
Fantasy players this impacts: Laviska Shenault Jr., D.J. Chark, Keelan Cole, and Chris Conley
Houston Texans Running Backs
Tim Kelly
The Houston Texans running backs combined for 13 carries, 19 rushing yards, five receptions, seven targets, and 28 receiving yards in Sunday's 27-20 victory over the New England Patriots.
After this performance, on the season the Houston Texans running back room is averaging 16.5 carries, 57.7 rushing yards, 0.4 rushing touchdowns, 3.6 receptions (on 5.1 targets), 29.6 receiving yards, and 0.1 receiving touchdowns per game.
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs | |
| 2020 Houston Texans (10 games) | 16.5 | 57.7 | 0.4 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 29.6 | 0.1 |
| Tim Kelly Prior (16 games) | 21.38 | 95.63 | 0.5 | 3.44 | 4.94 | 28.81 | 0.19 |
Now let's compare this to what the Texans offensive coordinator, Tim Kelly, has traditionally gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator role. Kelly has had his running back room average 21.38 carries, 95.63 rushing yards, 0.5 rushing touchdowns, 3.44 receptions (on 4.94 targets), 28.81 receiving yards, and 0.19 receiving touchdowns per game in the 16 games he coached as an offensive coordinator prior to this season.
As we touched on in last week's edition of this article series, it's more difficult to make conclusions from Tim Kelly's previous history as an offensive coordinator since former Texans head coach Bill O'Brien was the primary play-caller in 2019. It is concerning that the Texans running back room is only getting handed the ball 16.5 times per game on the ground, but there's nowhere to go but up for this position group going forward. There is some buy-low potential here, even if Duke Johnson and David Johnson will not be league-winners for your fantasy team.
Fantasy players this impacts: Duke Johnson and David Johnson
Miami Dolphins Running Backs
Chan Gailey
The Miami Dolphins were upset by the Denver Broncos this past Sunday, losing 20-13. In the game, the Dolphins running backs combined for 14 carries, 47 rushing yards, six receptions, eight targets, and 39 receiving yards.
After this performance, on the season the Miami Dolphins running back room is averaging 21.2 carries, 73.8 rushing yards, 0.7 rushing touchdowns, 4.9 receptions, 5.7 targets, 34.6 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns per game.
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs | |
| 2020 Miami Dolphins (10 games) | 21.2 | 73.8 | 0.7 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 34.6 | 0 |
| Chan Gailey Prior (224 games) | 24.57 | 102.93 | 0.66 | 4.04 | 5.53* | 30.04 | 0.15 |
*Stats for 192 games targets were recorded
Now let's compare this to what the Dolphins offensive coordinator, Chan Gailey, has traditionally gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Gailey has had his running back room average 24.57 carries, 102.93 rushing yards, 0.66 rushing touchdowns, 4.04 receptions, 5.53 targets (for 192 games targets were recorded), 30.04 receiving yards, and 0.15 receiving touchdowns per game in the 224 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.
While the Miami Dolphins running backs dropped the ball against the Denver Broncos this past Sunday, Chan Gailey's previous success at utilizing the position suggests that this was a 'floor' performance. Expect this group to pick it up a bit down the stretch, especially when Myles Gaskin gets back.
Fantasy players this impacts: Salvon Ahmed, Matt Breida, Patrick Laird, and Myles Gaskin
Los Angeles Chargers Running Backs
Anthony Lynn & Shane Steichen
The Los Angeles Chargers were victorious against the winless New York Jets, 34-28. In the game, the Chargers running backs combined for 23 carries, 46 rushing yards, 11 receptions, 13 targets, and 43 receiving yards.
After this performance, on the season the Chargers running back room is averaging 25.9 carries, 100.2 rushing yards, 0.3 rushing touchdowns, 7.4 receptions, 8.4 targets, 53.6 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns per game.
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Tgts. | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs | |
| 2020 Los Angeles Chargers (10 games) | 25.9 | 100.2 | 0.3 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 53.6 | 0 |
| Anthony Lynn Prior (62 games) | 22.42 | 102.87 | 0.94 | 6.44 | 8.29 | 57.95 | 0.40 |
| Shane Steichen Prior (8 games) | 23.63 | 108 | 0.88 | 9.38 | 11.88 | 94.25 | 0.38 |
Now let's compare this to what the Chargers head coach, Anthony Lynn, has traditionally gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Lynn has had his running back room average 22.42 carries, 102.87 rushing yards, 0.94 rushing touchdowns, 6.44 receptions, 8.29 targets, 57.95 receiving yards, and 0.40 receiving touchdowns per game in the 62 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.
In addition, in the 8 games that Shane Steichen had been an offensive coordinator prior to this season, Steichen has had his running back room average 23.63 carries, 108 rushing yards, 0.88 rushing touchdowns, 9.38 receptions, 11.88 targets, 94.25 receiving yards, and 0.38 receiving touchdowns per game.
The Chargers running backs have been disappointing most of the season for one reason: they aren't scoring touchdowns at the rate we've come to expect from an Anthony Lynn offense. They're getting the usage and the yards, but have only scored three touchdowns all year. The Chargers will utilize their running backs in the red zone more once Austin Ekeler gets back, and you should do your best to acquire Austin Ekeler before the fantasy playoffs.
Fantasy players this impacts: Kalen Ballage, Austin Ekeler, Troymaine Pope, Justin Jackson, and Joshua Kelley
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