Coaching Matters: Offenses That Will Improve From Week 10

November 18, 2020

Eli Grabanski analyzes disappointing offensive performances from Week 10 of the 2020 NFL season to find teams that will improve at RB, WR, and TE for fantasy football purposes based on playcalling tendencies and historical data.

This series continues into its tenth week of where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.

In Week 10, we saw performances such as the Houston Texans running backs combining for 54 rushing yards, Alex Smith throwing for 390 yards, and the Tennessee Titans wide receivers combining for 96 receiving yards. After these types of performances, it's important to look at each of these team's coaches and their play-calling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.

This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement in future weeks. Let's dive in!

Improvements Ahead?

These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

Houston Texans Running Backs

Tim Kelly

The Houston Texans lost 10-3 to the Cleveland Browns. In this game, the Texans running backs combined for 14 carries, 54 rushing yards, one reception (on two targets), -2 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns.

After this performance, on the season the Texans running back room is averaging 16.89 carries, 62 rushing yards, 0.44 rushing touchdowns, 3.44 receptions (4.89 targets), 29.78 receiving yards, and 0.11 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what the Houston Texans offensive coordinator, Tim Kelly, has traditionally gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator role. Kelly has had his running back room average 21.38 carries, 95.63 rushing yards, 0.5 rushing touchdowns, 3.44 receptions (4.94 targets), 28.81 receiving yards, and 0.19 receiving touchdowns per game in the 16 games he coached as an offensive coordinator prior to this season.

Admittedly, it's more difficult to make conclusions from Tim Kelly's previous history as an offensive coordinator since former Texans head coach Bill O'Brien was the primary play-caller in 2019. But given what we know, there's a solid chance that the Texans running backs get more work on the ground in the second half of the season.

Fantasy players this impacts: Duke Johnson, David Johnson, and C.J. Prosise 

Cleveland Browns Tight Ends

Kevin Stefanski & Alex Van Pelt

The Cleveland Browns were triumphant in an ugly game against the Houston Texans, winning 10-3. In this game, the Browns tight ends struggled, combining for only one reception on two targets for 11 receiving yards.

After this performance, on the season the Browns tight end room is averaging 5.11 receptions on 7.67 targets for 52.11 receiving yards and 0.67 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what the Browns head coach, Kevin Stefanski, has traditionally gotten out of his tight end room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Stefanski had his tight end room average 5.32 receptions on 6.58 targets for 50.16 receiving yards and 0.53 receiving touchdowns per game in the 19 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

In addition, in the 16 games that Browns offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt had been an offensive coordinator prior to this season, Van Pelt has had his tight end room average 2.63 receptions on 4.44 targets for 23.38 receiving yards and 0.06 receiving touchdowns per game.

Comparing all this data, Sunday's tight end performance against the Houston Texans was a worst-case scenario for this group. Expect better performances from Sunday, but keep in mind that the 2020 Browns season totals are in line (or even slightly above) what we'd normally expect from a Kevin Stefanski tight end room.

Fantasy players this impacts: Austin Hooper, Harrison Bryant, and David Njoku 

Green Bay Packers Running Backs (Touchdowns)

Matt LaFleur & Nathaniel Hackett

The Packers beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 24-20 in a game that was closer than many expected. In the game, the Green Bay Packers running backs combined 22 carries, 76 rushing yards, nine receptions (on 11 targets), 77 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns.

After this performance, on the season the Green Bay Packers running back room is averaging 24.11 carries, 109.89 rushing yards, 0.67 rushing touchdowns, 7.33 receptions (on 9.33 targets), 59.89 receiving yards, and 0.22 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what the Green Bay Packers head coach, Matt LaFleur, has traditionally gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. LaFleur has had his running back room average 22.60 carries, 99.54 rushing yards, 0.94 rushing touchdowns, 5.04 receptions (on 6.40 targets), 43.69 receiving yards, and 0.31 receiving touchdowns per game in the 48 games he coached as either an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

In addition, in the 89 games that Nathaniel Hackett had been an offensive coordinator prior to this season, Hackett has had his running back room average 24.51 carries, 100.09 rushing yards, 0.64 rushing touchdowns, 5.92 receptions (on 7.99 targets), 46.53 receiving yards, and 0.22 receiving touchdowns per game.

Overall, the Green Bay Packers running backs are performing around the level we'd expect based on their coaches. The one area for this group that could possibly improve in the future is touchdowns, with the season totals below what we'd expect from a Matt LaFleur running back room.

Fantasy players this impacts: Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, and A.J. Dillon

New York Giants Tight Ends

Jason Garrett

The Giants beat their rivals, the Philadelphia Eagles, 27-17 this past Sunday. In this game, the Giants tight ends combined for four receptions on five targets for 27 receiving yards.

After this performance, on the season the Giants tight end room is averaging 5.5 receptions on 8.8 targets for 45.6 receiving yards and 0.1 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what the New York Giants offensive coordinator, Jason Garrett, has historically gotten out of his tight end room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Garrett has had his tight end room average 6.15 receptions on 8.65 targets for 63.84 receiving yards and 0.40 receiving touchdowns per game in the 208 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

On the season the New York Giants tight ends have been underperforming from what we are used to from a Jason Garrett tight end room, which suggests that there's a buy-low opportunity here. If you are in need of a tight end but don't want to pay for a top-tier guy like Travis Kelce, consider making a move for Evan Engram for the late-season stretch.

Note: The New York Giants will be going on bye in week 11 so keep that in mind if you make a move for one of their tight ends.

Fantasy player this impacts: Evan Engram

Miami Dolphins Wide Receivers

Chan Gailey

The Miami Dolphins beat the Los Angeles Chargers 29-21. In this game, the Dolphins wide receivers combined for seven receptions on 13 targets for 75 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown.

After this performance, on the season the Dolphins wide receiver room is averaging 11.33 receptions on 17.33 targets for 133.89 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown per game.

*Data for 192 games coached where targets were tracked

Now let's compare this to what the Dolphins offensive coordinator, Chan Gailey, has historically gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Gailey has had his wide receiver room average 11.34 receptions for 154.93 receiving yards and 0.89 receiving touchdowns per game in the 224 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

There's no way around it: Dolphins wide receivers underperformed on Sunday. As for the season stats, the 2020 Miami Dolphins are performing around where we'd expect from a Chan Gailey wide receiver room. Right now the targets and receiving yards are running on the lower side of a Gailey wide receiver room, but it's off-set a bit by a slight overperformance in receiving touchdowns per game.

Fantasy players this impacts: DeVante Parker and Jakeem Grant

San Francisco 49ers Running Backs

Kyle Shanahan

The hobbled San Francisco 49ers squad lost to the New Orleans Saints 27-13 this past Sunday. In this game, the San Francisco 49ers running backs combined for 22 carries, 49 rushing yards, four receptions (on six targets), 36 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns.

After this performance, on the season the San Francisco 49ers running back room is averaging 22.7 carries, 96.1 rushing yards, 1.1 rushing touchdowns, 5.3 receptions (on 6.8 targets), 50.5 receiving yards, and 0.3 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what the 49ers head coach, Kyle Shanahan, has traditionally gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Shanahan has had his running back room average 23.09 carries, 100.26 rushing yards, 0.77 rushing touchdowns, four receptions (on 5.41 targets), 32.22 receiving yards, and 0.16 receiving touchdowns per game in the 192 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

Looking at this data we see that the 49ers running backs underperformed on Sunday against the New Orleans Saints. However, despite this, on the season these running backs are overperforming what we'd expect from a Kyle Shanahan running back room. So expect better games than Sunday, but also be ready for some regression from the season totals.

Fantasy players this impacts: Jerick McKinnon, Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, and JaMycal Hasty

New Orleans Saints Wide Receivers

Sean Payton & Pete Carmichael

The New Orleans Saints were victorious against the San Francisco 49ers this past Sunday on the back of a three-touchdown performance from star running back Alvin Kamara. While Kamara dominated, the Saints wide receivers did not, combining for seven receptions on 13 targets for 56 receiving yards.

After this performance, on the season the New Orleans Saints wide receiver room is averaging 12.11 receptions on 17 targets for 125.44 receiving yards and 0.78 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what their head coach, Sean Payton, has traditionally gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Payton has had his wide receiver room average 12.42 receptions on 19.11 targets for 172.77 receiving yards and 1.15 receiving touchdowns per game in the 256 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

In addition, in the 176 games that Pete Carmichael had been an offensive coordinator prior to this season, Carmichael has had his wide receiver room average 13.09 receptions on 19.29 targets for 177.53 receiving yards and 1.18 receiving touchdowns per game.

The New Orleans Saints wide receivers are being utilized less frequently than we are used to from Sean Payton and Pete Carmichael's offense. While some of that certainly stems from the Saints moving to more of a balanced attack after drafting Alvin Kamara in 2017, it still doesn't explain all of it. After all, the 2020 Saints wide receivers are on pace to have fewest receiving yards ever (125.44) from a Sean Payton wide receiver room...ever. With star wide receiver Michael Thomas getting healthy, expect the season totals for this position group to improve in the second half of the season and be more in line with what we've seen from the Saints offense in 2017-2019.

Fantasy players this impacts: Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, and Tre'Quan Smith

Baltimore Ravens Running Backs

Greg Roman

Sunday Night Football didn't go well for the Baltimore Ravens, as they lost 23-17 to the New England Patriots. In the game the Baltimore Ravens running backs struggled to get going, combining for 17 carries, 60 rushing yards, five receptions (on seven targets), 59 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns.

After this performance, on the season the Ravens running back room is averaging 21.56 carries, 101.11 rushing yards, 0.78 rushing touchdowns, 2.67 receptions (on four targets), 20.22 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what the Ravens offensive coordinator, Greg Roman, has traditionally gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Roman has had his running back room average 23.99 carries, 106.68 rushing yards, 0.77 rushing touchdowns, 2.38 receptions (on 3.39 targets), 19.61 receiving yards, and 0.12 receiving touchdowns per game in the 98 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

The Baltimore Ravens running backs didn't play well this past Sunday against the New England Patriots, and we should expect them to bounce-back to perform around the level Greg Roman has gotten from his running backs in the past. On the season, the 2020 Ravens running backs are getting about two fewer carries than we'd expect from a Greg Roman running back room, but other than that most of the averages are close to Greg Roman's career averages prior to this season.

Fantasy players this impacts: Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, and Mark Ingram

Tennessee Titans Wide Receivers

Arthur Smith

The Tennessee Titans lost their lead for AFC South crown, losing to the Indianapolis Colts 34-17 on Thursday Night Football. In this game, the Titans wide receivers struggled, combining for eight receptions on 13 targets for 96 receiving yards and zero touchdowns.

After this performance, on the season the Titans wide receiver room is averaging 11.67 receptions on 17.11 targets for 154.67 receiving yards and 1.22 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what their offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith, has traditionally gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Smith has had his wide receiver room average 10.69 receptions on 15.94 targets for 160.69 receiving yards and 1.06 receiving touchdowns per game in the 16 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

Thursday's performance was disappointing for the Titans wide receivers, but on the season they are still performing slightly better than Arthur Smith's wide receiver room last year. Expect a bounce-back from Thursday's performance to more of an 11 reception on 16-17 targets for 160 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown line in future weeks.

Fantasy players this impacts: A.J. Brown and Corey Davis

Back Again?

These are the areas and positions that could improve in the coming weeks based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past, and were also on this list last week.

Denver Broncos Running Backs

Pat Shurmur

The Denver Broncos running backs land on this list for the second consecutive week, as the Broncos got destroyed by the Las Vegas Raiders 37-12. In this game, the Denver Broncos running backs combined 17 carries, 59 rushing yards, two receptions (on five targets), 15 receiving yards, and no touchdowns.

After this performance, on the season the Denver Broncos running back room is averaging 20.67 carries, 92.22 rushing yards, 0.56 rushing touchdowns, 3.44 receptions (5.22 targets), 19.33 receiving yards, and 0.11 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what their offensive coordinator, Pat Shurmur, has traditionally gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Shurmur has had his running back room average 23.10 carries, 96.32 rushing yards, 0.66 rushing touchdowns, 5.03 receptions (6.86 targets), 38.56 receiving yards, and 0.11 receiving touchdowns per game in the 169 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

The Denver Broncos running backs have frequently appeared on this list as a group that is underperforming from what we'd expect from a Pat Shurmur running back room. Their season totals are below Shurmur's averages across the board. If there was one area that is most likely to improve, it would be this group's usage and production through the air...but there's also a very real chance this is just going to be a down-year for Shurmur's running backs as none of the current averages appears to be major outliers.

Fantasy players this impacts: Melvin Gordon, Phillip Lindsay, and Royce Freeman

Las Vegas Raiders Wide Receivers

Jon Gruden & Greg Olson

For the third consecutive week, the Las Vegas Raiders wide receivers are featured in this article series. The Raiders beat the Broncos 37-12 on Sunday, and in this game their wide receivers combined for eight receptions on 12 targets for 91 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns.

After this performance, on the season the Raiders wide receiver room is averaging 8.44 receptions on 12.56 targets for 134.11 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown per game.

Now let's compare this to what the Las Vegas Raiders head coach, Jon Gruden, has historically gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time as an offensive coordinator or head coach. Jon Gruden has had his wide receiver room average 10.54 receptions on 17.69 targets for 140.43 receiving yards and 0.81 receiving touchdowns per game in the 256 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

In addition, in the 172 games that Greg Olson had been an offensive coordinator prior to this season, Olson has had his wide receiver room average 10.97 receptions on 19.34 targets for 142.58 receiving yards and 0.90 receiving touchdowns per game.

We've seen the Raiders wide receivers appear in this article series for the third straight week. While we look at their coaches career averages and hope they get more work, this might just be the new normal for Raiders wide receivers, with wide receiver targets being around the same level as last year.

Fantasy players this impacts: Henry Ruggs III, Hunter Renfrow, Bryan Edwards, and Nelson Agholor

Pittsburgh Steelers Running Backs

Randy Fichtner

This past Sunday the Pittsburgh Steelers destroyed the Cincinnati Bengals 36-10. In this game the Steelers running backs combined for 16 carries, 48 rushing yards, two receptions (on two targets), 12 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns.

After this performance, on the season the Pittsburgh Steelers running back room is averaging 22.44 carries, 89.78 rushing yards, 0.78 rushing touchdowns, 3.33 receptions (on 4.56 targets), 18.67 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what the Steelers offensive coordinator, Randy Fichtner, has traditionally gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator role. Fichtner has had his running back room average 20.13 carries, 81.09 rushing yards, 0.63 rushing touchdowns, 5.47 receptions (6.59 targets), 42.19 receiving yards, and 0.25 receiving touchdowns per game in the 32 games he coached as an offensive coordinator prior to this season.

It is surprising to see the Steelers running backs land on this list for the second consecutive week after two supposedly great matchups on paper. Looking at the 2020 season totals and comparing it with Randy Fichtner's production in the past, the overall usage, yardage, and touchdowns are around Fichtner's career per-game averages, just with the distribution between rushing totals and receiving totals changing for this group.

Fantasy players this impacts: James Conner, Anthony McFarland, and Benny Snell

Buffalo Bills Running Backs

Brian Daboll

The Bills lost a heartbreaker to the Arizona Cardinals on a last-second Kyler Murray 'Hail Mary' to DeAndre Hopkins 32-30. In this game the Bills running backs combined for 11 carries, 35 rushing yards, two receptions (seven targets), -8 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns.

After this performance, on the season the Buffalo Bills running back room is averaging 16.8 carries, 69.5 rushing yards, 0.4 rushing touchdowns, 3.5 receptions (on 5.4 targets), 27.7 receiving yards, and 0.2 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what the Bills offensive coordinator, Brian Daboll, has historically gotten out of his running back room in his time as an offensive coordinator. Daboll has had his running back room average 23.83 carries, 98.96 rushing yards, 0.43 rushing touchdowns, 3.93 receptions (5.28 targets), 28.81 receiving yards, and 0.09 receiving touchdowns per game in the 96 games he coached as an offensive coordinator prior to this season.

After two poor performances, the Bills running backs should see a little bit more usage on the ground in the second half of the season. But with how well starting quarterback Josh Allen is playing right now, there are very real concerns with how much usage that will be. Expect this group to improve on the ground after their bye week this week, but keep in mind it probably won't be by as much as fantasy players would like.

Fantasy players this impacts: Zack Moss and Devin Singletary

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