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Inside Injuries discusses five wide receivers (WR) they are wary of in 2018 fantasy football drafts, based on several factors including injury histories and overall upside.
The wide receiver position has a plethora of choices available in fantasy football, but some players present far more risk than others.
Inside Injuries predicts the impact of injuries on player performance by using data analytics, medical expertise and statistical modeling. You can read all about them and the great work they do on Twitter @InsideInjuries.
Today's article provides that injury spin and looks at injury histories to help solidify some draft day decisions. Some of these players may feel like more obvious candidates to avoid in fantasy football drafts, but let's not forget that every winning fantasy team starts with owning fantasy workhorses and drafting studs. Picking the right player in the early rounds is just as important as nailing those middle and late-round picks as well. These are the players you shouldn’t take the risk on.
Editor's Note: Steer clear of costly draft mistakes with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Bust analysis. We break down overvalued players, potential letdowns, and risky ADPs to avoid, so you can build a smarter, safer roster.
Five Risky Wide Receivers to Avoid
Kelvin Benjamin, Buffalo Bills
Benjamin’s first season with the Bills was lackluster to say the least. He made 48 catches for 692 yards and three touchdowns. Those are pedestrian numbers from a wide receiver billed as the team’s No. 1 target. Part of the problem with Benjamin is that he is built more like a tight end at 6’5” and 245 pounds. He lacks the speed to gain separation from the top cornerbacks he regularly faces. His size is a plus in the red zone, however, since he can out-jump just about anyone to make plays in the end zone.
The real problem, though, is that the Bills have moved on from Tyrod Taylor and the new quarterback will be either journeyman A.J. McCarron or rookie Josh Allen. In addition, most of the offensive line has been replaced. So, we have a new QB and an untested offensive line on a team that figures to be defensively poor. About the best we can expect for Benjamin is some work during garbage time as the team tries to catch up to opponents. That’s a scenario no fantasy manager wants to deal with, so let Benjamin go to someone else. His Injury Risk is also Elevated, so there's some concern that he will battle an injury again this season.
Zay Jones, Buffalo Bills
Everything written about Kelvin Benjamin’s fortunes apply here as well, but the problems run much deeper for Jones. On top of all the Bills’ woes, Jones had offseason knee surgery in May and shoulder surgery in January, which has kept him off the field for most of the spring and summer thus far. His Injury Risk remains High and could throughout much of the season. As if that weren’t enough, Jones had a domestic violence and an alleged suicide incident during the offseason, which was dragged through the media muck in a very public way. This is more than enough for any fantasy manager to strike Jones’ name from draft lists this summer.
Brandin Cooks, LA Rams
You know something isn’t right when a supposed No. 1 receiver is traded to his third team in three years. That’s what’s happened to Cooks, except this time he will be catching passes from Jared Goff instead of the golden arms of Tom Brady or Drew Brees. With the Patriots last season, Cooks produced 65 receptions on 114 targets for 1,082 yards and seven touchdowns, and he led all Patriots receivers in those four categories.
Fast forward to this season and Jared Goff under center. While Goff had a decent season in 2017, he only threw 58 deep throws, good for 20th in the NFL. Goff’s 3.8 air yards per attempt was 19th among quarterbacks last season. So Cooks is getting a serious downgrade at QB, and he’ll be playing in an offense that is built around the running game and the talents of Todd Gurley. As good as Cooks is, he’s never topped 1,200 yards or 84 catches in a season, and neither is likely to happen with the Rams.
Josh Gordon, Cleveland Browns
Gordon has been in the NFL since 2012 but he has played just 40 games in his five seasons due to his suspensions for drug use. While he made a good impression in his five games played last season, catching 18 passes for 335 yards and a touchdown, he has not been with the Browns since the end of the last game he played. He is reportedly in a Florida rehab facility taking extra precautions to keep his life in order.
Browns’ management insists Gordon is going to be with the team before the season begins, but as we get closer to opening day there is still no word on when he might arrive. There is also speculation that Commissioner Roger Goodell will be weighing in on Gordon’s status and that he has final approval over whether Gordon plays or not. Even if that isn’t the case, there is just too much unknown about Gordon to safely draft him for fantasy use. At the most, you can take a flyer on Gordon after the rest of your team is settled.
Jordy Nelson, Oakland Raiders
Nelson was let go by the Green Bay Packers after he put up what is easily his worst season as a receiver in 2017. He finished with 53 receptions from 88 targets for 482 yards and six touchdowns. He averaged just 32 yards per game overall, and he picked up just 252 yards in 10 games once Aaron Rodgers went down with a broken collarbone.
While you might think that Rodgers’ injury is to blame for Nelson’s poor performance, the truth is that injuries have taken some speed from Nelson’s legs. He had a difficult time gaining separation from cornerbacks last season. Add in the fact that new Raiders head coach Jon Gruden has never had more than one fantasy-relevant receiver on his team in any season and Amari Cooper is the Raiders’ best receiver now. Nelson might get some play in the event that Cooper gets hurt, but you don’t want to bet on that happening, especially since you’ll need to use a second or third round pick to get Nelson. Don’t bother.
