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JB uses his Keeper Player Valuation Formula to rank the top values among First Basemen (Tier 2) for 2017 fantasy baseball keeper leagues heading into the MLB season.
What's up RotoBallers. Welcome back to my series on keeper leagues. Today I'll be taking a look at first basemen keeper values for fantasy baseball (tier two) for those of you deciding what players to keep for your teams.
Keeper Value Rankings are intended for Keeper Leagues in which a fantasy owner must forfeit a designated draft round in order to keep a player into the up-coming season. These rankings are based on Keeper "Values". In the marketing world, Value can be defined as: the extent to which a good or service (player) is perceived by its customer (fantasy owner) to meet his/her needs or wants.
For these specific rankings, 12 team, 5x5 scoring, 23 man roster, Rotisserie league settings were used. If you play in a custom league with non-standard configurations, are thinking of keeping a player not on this list, or want to compare players on your team, follow me on Twitter @RowdyRotoJB or contact me via the RotoBaller Chat Rooms.
Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.
How My Keeper Valuation Formula Works
The Keeper Values are derived from my 15 step Keeper Valuation Formula. The product is a quanitative depiction of a players ability to meet/exceed fantasy owners needs based on the cost they payed for the player in the previous season (2016 ADP). The higher the score, the higher the return the fantasy owner will receive from the player, keeping him at his associated cost. Approaching Keeper selections with this "value" based attitude, will greatly increase the effectiveness of a fantasy owner's draft in a Keeper League.
| TIER | SCORE | EXPLANATION |
| 1 | >75 | Finders Keepers! These are the Elite Keeper Values. MUST BE KEPT. |
| 2 | 50-75 | Great Keeper values. Unless you have a full load of Tier 1 players, these guys need to be kept. |
| 3 | 25-49 | You are gaining value with these players, but not as much as your opponents are, potentially. Consider if your options are limited. |
| 4 | 0-24 | Break even point. Minimal value. Only consider if you have a large quantity of Keeper selections. |
| 5 | -99-0 | Keeping these players will hurt your overall draft, as you are not adding any value. Dont waste a Keeper selection here. |
| 6 | <-100 | The associated costs make it impossible to return any value, these players will ruin your draft. Stay far away. |
2017 Top First Basemen Keeper Values: #3-7
7. Joey Votto, CIN (Third Round ADP) Keeper Valuation Formula Score: 54.08
After a nice rebound year in 2015, Votto-matic took it a step further last season. He reached the 100 R milestone for the fourth time in his 10 year career, and one of only three first basemen in 2016. It's no surprise he led the position in BA (.326), OBP (.434), and wOBA (.413), considering the four time All-Star has earned a over a .300 BA and .400 OBP in seven of his last eight seasons. We've come to expect nothing but the best at-bats from Votto every single time he steps up to the plate, and even at the age of 33 he continues to deliver. He just very well might own the greatest approach at the plate this game has ever seen, and was only one of three players in the league to post a 0.0 infield fly ball percentage in 2016. In fact, since 2007 when he arrived to the MLB, no one has a lower IFFB rate than Votto's 1.3%.
Now you've heard what the final product looked like for Votto last season. But now, what if I told you that at the end of the first half on 2016 he was slashing .252/.386/.446? That's right, Votto-matic went on one of the gnarliest second half tears you'll ever see, leading the league in BA, OBP, SLG, wOBA, and wRC+ down the stretch.
This is the momentum Votto brings into the 2017 season for his fantasy owners.
6. Anthony Rizzo, CHC (Second Round ADP) Keeper Valuation Formula Score: 56.66
Rizzo has established himself as Mr. Consistent in fantasy baseball after three eerily similar All-Star seasons in a row. For the past three seasons, his average stat line has been: 32 HR, 93 R, 96 RBI, and a .286/.386/.528 slash. As the 27 year old, and the Cubs as a whole, gain more experience these numbers will only improve, and the Silver Slugger Awards will begin to pile up.
#Cubs' Anthony Rizzo, Jake Arrieta win Silver Sluggers https://t.co/5zQfZeEtGE pic.twitter.com/IMYDTn1Ssv
— 670 The Score (@670TheScore) November 11, 2016
There is really not much you can say about a player that is this safe, because there just aren't many changes to explain. Except maybe that now he has become the leagues best change-up hitter (10.7 wCH), and oh I don't know, maybe even the best defensive first baseman in the country (11 DRS). I'm serious, that's all I got. This dude is awesome, the Cubs are awesome, and barring injury you know almost exactly what you are going to get from him. RotoBaller has him ranked as the 10th player overall heading into 2017, and if you are able to keep him for anything later than a first round pick, congrats.
5. Carlos Santana, CLE (18th Round ADP) Keeper Valuation Formula Score: 65.79
Never too late to have a career year, ain't that right Carlos Santana? 30 years young and he set career highs in HR (34), R (89), RBI (87), ISO (.239), and SLG (.498). He even set a career low with a 14.4 K%. All-in-all, after winning the American League pennant, it wasn't too bad of a season for El Oso.
I love Carlos Santana. My favorite thing about him is the patience at the plate. In 2016 he was one of only three qualified players in the league to earn a BB/K ratio of 1.00 or higher. Aiding this ratio was the leagues second lowest percentage of swings on balls outside the strike zone (19.8%). That's just as sexy as it gets for an OBP lover such as myself. This skillset will continue to sky-rocket Santana's fantasy value as he should continue to see the majority of his at-bats coming from the leadoff position in 2016's fifth ranked offense. The same offense that just landed Edwin Encarnacion and returns a healthy Michael Brantley. Projected to finish as a top 100 player again in 2017, I love the idea of Carlos Santana as a keeper for any late round cost.
4. Hanley Ramirez, BOS (11th Round ADP) Keeper Valuation Formula Score: 71.32
After two down years by his own standards, Han-Ram enjoyed a late revival to his career in his second season with the Red Sox. First ingredient to this revival was staying healthy, as he reached 600 PA for the first time since 2012. This allowed Ramirez to reach the 30 HR mark for only the second time in his career, and set a personal record with 111 RBI.
Like Joey Votto, Ramirez gained the large majority of his 2016 fantasy value in the second half of the season. On July 19, he had eight HR and a .147 ISO under his belt. The man must have hit the weights like a mad man that night, because for the rest of the way he smashed 22 bombs accompanied by an absurd .309 ISO. A 22 point increase in a HR/FB% may seem more of a fluke than Bartolo Colon's HR, but looking at the batted ball statistics, it seems Hanley flipped a switch and went straight power hitter mode. He cut out anything low in the zone and reduced his GB% by five points, increasing his FB% subsequently. He also stopped worrying about going to the other side of the field , reducing his Oppo% by six points, again subsequently increasing his Pull% by the same.
All this led to a five percent increase in his hard hits, and badda bing badda boom- he couldn't keep the ball in the park. While I don't see Ramirez hitting HR at quite the same rate as we saw during the second half of 2016 this year, he has now stepped into the largest of shoes as the Red Sox everyday DH and clean-up hitter. That alone will return value based off his previous draft stock. The possibility that the power surge carries over on top of that is why Han-Ram scored just four points shy of landing as a Tier One keeper option for 2017.
3. Paul Goldschmidt, ARI (First Round ADP) Keeper Valuation Formula Score: 73.55
The unanimous number one ranked first baseman experienced a slightly different shift during his 2016 campaign. He traded in his membership card for the 30/20 club, and exchanged nine of the HR for 11 extra SB, joining Mike Trout, Jose Altuve, and Jean Segura as the league's only 20/30 club members. Goldy was still phenomenal, leading the position in R (106) and obviously SB, while hitting .297 with a .411 OBP. No fantasy owner is going to complain when receiving top ten fantasy output, but it was a little worrisome to see him post the only sub-.200 ISO in his career and the lowest SLG since he played 48 games as a rookie in 2011.
I honestly have no strong explanation for it, but Goldschmidt just wasn't squaring the ball up as well as we have been accustomed to. His IFFB% nearly tripled from the previous season, ending at a rather weak 14.3%, while his Hard% dropped below 40% for the first time in four years. While we watched his bat's pop slowly decrease, he actually had his best season in terms of Contact (79.4 Cont%, 7.9 SwStr%).
As you can see 2016 was a little strange for Goldy, for whatever reason. Toss it into the "who cares" box and enjoy the best first baseman in fantasy baseball, regardless of the manner in which he decides to deliver the goods in 2017.
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