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Kevin's best MLB player prop bets for today (6/20/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Byron Buxton, Corbin Carroll, and others!
Happy Saturday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to get back at these HR picks after nailing a Matt Chapman homer at +830 last week. The hitters I'm looking at today don't have odds quite that long, but I do love their chances in some solid-looking matchups. There are two games in particular I'm really focused on where the same game parlay energy is strong, and you know I'm a sucker for that. Zach hit two of three picks yesterday, so I've got some high standards to live up to today. Now let's get into it.
In this article, I'll be going over my five favorite home run props. Make sure to check out the RotoBaller Discord, where you can find input from all our experts, which could include more home run spots as well as some great strikeout picks.
Below, you'll be able to read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, June 20, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the time of publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get the most value on your home run wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (6/20/2026)
Byron Buxton OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+265, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Not that you need any additional reasons to back Buxton for a homer bet on Saturday, but the Twins' vet has been lighting it up this season. He's hit the third-most homers in the league and gets a pretty solid matchup against Arizona's Zac Gallen.
Buxton has been crushing pitches with a 63% hard-hit rate and a 22.2% barrel rate over the last two weeks. That's added up to five homers to bring his tally up to 23 on the season.
Byron Buxton stays red hot 🔥
He hits his 6th home run in his last 9 games! pic.twitter.com/TV1UPVaend
— MLB (@MLB) June 16, 2026
Gallen, on the flipside, hasn't been the same pitcher he used to be. The past two seasons have shown a bit of regression, and this year's 5.35 ERA is continuing the trend. His 1.55 HR/9 is the highest of his career and has gotten worse over his last few starts.
Of the 13 homers Gallen has given up on the year, six of them have come over his last four starts. While he's been a bit more solid at home, I'm not sure the rosters he's faced have had many threats. I'm also not scared of the right-on-right matchup, as Buxton has a .365 ISO against righties this season.
Gallen should attack Buxton mostly with a combo of sliders and four-seamers. Buxton has hit 13 of his 23 homers against these two pitches, and the slider is Gallen's most homer-prone pitch against righties. He'll get plenty of chances atop the order, and that gives me confidence that Buxton's going to get a few good swings in a hitter-friendly ballpark.
Now to the other side of the dugout for another hitter I love in this game.
Corbin Carroll OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+381, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Sometimes it hurts to fade pitchers you're a fan of, but Taj Bradley finds himself in a not-so-advantageous position on Saturday. He's been decent for the Twins this season, but he's given up five homers in his last two starts. Four have gone to lefties, and no one on Arizona's roster has more appeal here than Carroll.
Corbin Carroll is so freaking good.
Season Stats:
13 HR
38 RBI
9 SB
.275 AVG | .364 OBP | .904 OPSPace: 29 HR / 85 RBI / 20 SB#Dbacks
📅 June 17 pic.twitter.com/F0FuaTMu5g
— PaceBall (@paceball__) June 18, 2026
From a season-long perspective, Carroll has hit 49.3% hard-hit rate to go along with a 12.6% barrel rate. Both of those are in the 81st percentile or better. They're solid numbers to back against Bradley, who's been significantly worse on the road.
At home, Bradley posts just a 0.88 HR/9 but that jumps to 1.76 when on the road. It jumps to 1.99 against lefties. With 10 of Carroll's 13 homers coming against righties, it makes him an easy player to target.
Bradley should attack Carroll with a mix of four-seamers, split fingers, cutters, and curves. Bradley hasn't given up a homer on his split finger to lefties this season, but the other three pitches get lit up. Carroll has very solid numbers against everything Bradley throws besides the split.
So as long as Carroll does enough to foul off the splits, then he should get more chances against Bradley's other pitches. With Bradley becoming more homer-prone over his last couple of starts, it's a great spot to fade him. If the Twins decide to bring lefties out of the pen? Well, Carroll's hitting lefties for a 258 wRC+ at home with three homers.
Sign me up for Carroll going deep on Saturday night. Now, let's dive into another matchup where I like two players to go deep.
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