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Justin's 12-team College Football Playoff prediction ahead of Week 12 of the 2025 college football season. Projections for all 12 teams, including Ohio State and Indiana.
Week 12 College Football Playoff Projections
The second edition of the College Football Playoff Rankings are out, and there aren’t many surprises. I have a few quibbles with the order, but the top 10 teams in the rankings are the same as my projected top 10 at the end of the season.
But those last two spots look to be fascinating. We assume the ACC winner will get an autobid, but it’s not a sure thing, especially with the American winner set to be a very good team and James Madison potentially winning the Sun Belt with just one total loss. More on that in a minute.
Let’s take a look at the College Football Playoff projections heading into Week 12.
12. South Florida
CFP Committee Ranking: 24th
All season long, I’ve held firm that whoever the American champion ends up being, that team would be in the playoffs because they’d be the highest-ranked Group of Five champion. I still believe that, but I am worried about James Madison.
The Dukes are 8-1, and the lack of strength from the rest of the Sun Belt makes it likely that JMU finishes as a one-loss conference champion. If the American teams beat up on each other over the final stretch of the season, the Dukes could easily wind up the highest-ranked Group of Five champion despite not being the most talented Group of Five champion.
For now, though, let’s just assume South Florida wins out. If that happens, the Bulls are in.
11. Georgia Tech
CFP Committee Ranking: 16th
Miami is the highest-ranked ACC team, but with two conference losses, the Hurricanes aren’t a lock to even make it to the ACC title game, considering there are currently five ACC teams with only one loss on the season.
Georgia Tech is probably back in the driver’s seat here, though at this point, the only path to an ACC school getting in, barring some meltdowns higher in the rankings, is going to be by winning the ACC title game, so plenty of other schools are still in the hunt.
That includes Duke, which might be the ACC’s nightmare scenario. Duke has just one conference loss but has four losses overall, and the Blue Devils aren’t currently ranked in the CFP’s top 25. What if South Florida and James Madison win out and Duke wins the ACC with four losses? Could the ACC get shut out completely?
10. Texas
CFP Committee Ranking: 10th
Texas, Oklahoma, and BYU are in play for the final at-large bid. Texas is the team in the best position, owing to a 23-6 win over Oklahoma last month. If both teams end with two losses, you can’t put the Sooners ahead of the Longhorns.
As for BYU, a blowout loss to Texas Tech puts it in a shaky spot. The team has to beat Cincinnati on Nov. 22 to earn a spot in the Big 12 title game, which appears to be a rematch with Texas Tech. If the Cougars get blown out again, they’re not getting in over a two-loss Texas. If they win, things get interesting because then we have to debate if Texas Tech deserves an at-large spot.
9. Notre Dame
CFP Committee Ranking: Ninth
After starting the season 0-2, it’s shocking that Notre Dame is not only in the playoff conversation but is also in a situation where all the team has to do to lock in a playoff spot is beat Pitt, Syracuse, and Stanford to end the season.
Credit to the play of quarterback C.J. Carr and running back Jeremiyah Love, two players who have both been around 10th in the Heisman odds for a few weeks now. The defense has also played well lately, holding Boston College and Navy both to 10 points.
8. Oregon
CFP Committee Ranking: Eighth
It hasn’t always been pretty — last week featured just a two-point victory over Iowa — but Oregon is 8-1 and just needs to win at home against USC in two weeks (plus avoid upsets against Minnesota and Washington) to lock itself into a playoff spot.
Do I think this team has a championship run in it? Not really, considering the team isn’t passing the eye test over the last month. Still, the Ducks are a good football team that should be able to win in the first round of the playoffs.
7. Ole Miss
CFP Committee Ranking: Seventh
Ole Miss dropped a spot this week because of Texas Tech’s big win over BYU, but the Rebels are still probably the better of the two teams if we’re talking on-field production.
The Rebels are 9-1 on the season with the only loss coming in a one-score game against Georgia. I’m not sure I’m sold on Trinidad Chambliss as a championship-winning quarterback yet, but this team getting hot and winning the title isn’t out of the question. This is the lowest-ranked team that I feel confident saying that about.
6. Texas Tech
CFP Committee Ranking: Sixth
Texas Tech dominated BYU this week, beating the Cougars 29-7 and preventing BYU from scoring until midway through the fourth quarter. The Red Raiders firmly established that they’re the Big 12’s best team.
The question, now, is what happens if Tech loses the Big 12 title game to either BYU or Cincinnati. Does a two-loss Tech with wins over Utah and BYU get in over Texas or Oklahoma? It’s a good question, and I’d lean…yes?
5. Georgia
CFP Committee Ranking: Fifth
Georgia feels locked into fifth here until at least the conclusion of the SEC title game, and the Bulldogs should be cheering hard for A&M to win tha.
Why? Because Georgia beat Ole Miss, but lost to Alabama and won’t play Texas A&M. Without a clear path at the moment to the SEC title game, the Bulldogs need Alabama to be a two-loss team if they want to jump into one of the four byes.
4. Texas A&M
CFP Committee Ranking: Third
We’re projecting forward here, which means we’re working under the assumption that Texas A&M and Alabama make the SEC Championship Game. We’re also taking that scenario a step further and predicting that the Crimson Tide will hand A&M its first loss of the season.
That would still leave A&M as a one-loss SEC team that made the conference title game. It’s hard to see the Aggies falling out of the top four in that scenario, provided they don’t get blown out by Alabama.
3. Alabama
CFP Committee Ranking: Fourth
We’re assuming Alabama beats Texas A&M in the SEC title game. At that point, the big question is if a one-loss Alabama can get the No. 2 seed over the loser of an Ohio State/Indiana Big Ten title game.
And, well…I don’t know! Alabama definitely would have a worse loss on its resume than that team would, but it also will have more impressive victories overall.
2. Indiana
CFP Committee Ranking: Second
Indiana’s chance at winning out and earning the No. 1 overall seed almost took a huge hit this week as the team took until the final minute to come back and beat Penn State 27-24, with Fernando Mendoza tossing a seven-yard touchdown to Omar Cooper Jr. with 36 seconds to play.
What would have happened if Indiana lost that game? Who knows, but it would have opened up the possibility for an SEC team to claim the No. 1 overall seed when all is said and done. As it stands now, Indiana is still on a collision course for Ohio State.
1. Ohio State
CFP Committee Ranking: First
As has been the case every week since Ohio State’s season-opening win over Texas, I have the defending champions set to land the No. 1 seed.
Ohio State has the best scoring defense in the nation and hasn’t played a one-score game since August. The team hasn’t allowed more than 16 points in any game so far this year. This is the best team in the country, though the Nov. 29 road meeting with Michigan looms large ahead for the Buckeyes. That game always gets weird.
First-Round CFP Matchups
- No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Georgia
- No. 11 Georgia Tech at No. 6 Texas Tech
- No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Ole Miss
- No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oregon
