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Adam Koffler's dark-horse candidates to finish as the overall fantasy football RB1 in 2025. Target these six running backs with league-winning upside.
Yes, you should draft Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs this season. However, unless you're playing in a league with an auction draft, you won't be able to do that.
So instead, target these more affordable running backs with varying average draft positions who have the potential to finish the year as the overall RB1. All six of these backs have massive ceilings in 2025. But because they're not the obvious picks to finish the year as the overall RB1, we'll refer to them as "dark-horses."
Last week, I wrote about dark-horse overall WR1 contenders. Below are my six dark-horse overall RB1 contenders.
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Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
Per Fantasy Points Data, Brown ranked 10th among running backs in expected fantasy points per game last season (16.2). That, despite not getting over a 50% snap share until Week 6.
Brown didn't receive more than 17 touches in a single game until Week 9, but then it was off to the races. From Week 9 on, he led all running backs with 22.4 expected fantasy points per game. During that stretch, Brown was second among running backs in route participation rate (62.2%) and third in targets per game (5.4). However, he ranked just 29th in targets per route run (0.18).
But what if he's used even more in the passing game this season? His first preseason action suggests he could be a legitimate workhorse in Year 3.
Chase Brown looks noticeably bigger to me.
Had this nasty stiff arm on a 9-yard catch and run last night. pic.twitter.com/wiZJKtV3S9
— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) August 8, 2025
In his final eight games of the 2024 season, Brown was precisely that, averaging 23.6 touches per game. In those games, he scored just three rushing touchdowns despite having 151 rush attempts, 36 of which came in the red zone.
Expect that number to go up in 2025. The Bengals averaged the sixth-most red zone scores per game (2.3), and Brown accounted for 83.3% of his team's carries inside the five.
In the offseason, offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher said Brown would be one of the "focal points" of the Bengals' offense this year.
Don't pass up the opportunity to draft a young workhorse without much competition for touches in an elite offensive environment.
Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks
Walker has missed some practice time this offseason due to what the Seahawks are essentially calling "load management." It's all part of a specific plan they have for the oft-injured fourth-year back.
But don't let that scare you from drafting Walker in 2025. If anything, you should appreciate that head coach Mike Macdonald and his staff are easing up on his workload during training camp so that he's ready to rock in Week 1.
He'll do just that in new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak's new outside zone scheme. Per Fantasy Points Data, Walker's yards per carry increase by 12.4% and his explosive run rate increases by 17.3% on outside zone runs vs. all other carries.
And it's not just running the football. Here's Kubiak talking about getting Walker the ball as much as possible, including through the air:
#Seahawks OC Klint Kubiak on his outside zone scheme, throwing the ball to running backs, and Kenneth Walker:
“Looking forward to him in this scheme, and we’re gonna ask a lot out of him.”
Wheels all the way up for K9, pants all the way off for K9 fantasy managers pic.twitter.com/JGgRqfkHJW
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) February 11, 2025
In Macdonald's first year as Seahawks head coach last season, Walker registered a career-high 72.5% opportunity share. That led to 16.8 expected fantasy points per game, eighth-most among running backs.
He's also incredible at making guys miss. Per Fantasy Points Data, Walker led all backs in missed tackles forced per rush attempt (0.30) and was 15th in missed tackles forced per reception (0.26) in 2024.
As a receiver out of the backfield, he was fourth in both target share (12.7%) and targets per route run (0.24). Those are much bigger numbers than in 2023, when Walker had a target share of just 6.9% and a targets per route run of 0.21.
Needless to say, his opportunity grew under Macdonald, and it could grow even more in Kubiak's scheme.
RJ Harvey, Denver Broncos
The Broncos used premium draft capital on one of the most explosive running backs in college football. The UCF product ran a 4.40 40-yard dash and profiles most similarly to Brown, per PlayerProfiler.
Harvey also owns a 91st percentile speed score and an 88th percentile burst score. In other words, he has the juice.
RJ Harvey turned that corner FAST.
My goodness he’s going to be good in this system pic.twitter.com/EQp1AGdkcx— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) August 10, 2025
Head coach Sean Payton can't stop gushing about the kid, calling him a willing learner and very coachable.
Many were concerned about Harvey's position on the depth chart when the Broncos released their first unofficial one in early August. But if you know anything about Payton, he lists all of his rookies last on the depth chart.
He did the same thing with Alvin Kamara in 2017, and he went on to finish his rookie season as the overall RB3.
Sure, the Broncos also brought in veteran J.K. Dobbins this offseason. While he's good in pass protection, he doesn't have the sort of juice Harvey brings to the table, both on the ground and in the passing game.
Last season, Dobbins ranked 30th in yards after contact per attempt (2.37) and just 33rd in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.15), per Fantasy Points Data.
He received a PFF grade of 66.6, which was 44th of 56 qualifying running backs. Enter Harvey, who, despite being listed as fifth on the depth chart, got the start for the Broncos. He didn't disappoint.
RJ Harvey Usage w/ Broncos Starters
63% snaps
45% route share
20% target share
100% of carriesTouched ball on 47% of starter snaps
Not bad for the 5th RB on the depth chart!
— Wolf of Roto Street (@RotoStreetWolf) August 10, 2025
Based on history, the usage in the first preseason game is an indicator of who the starter is. Last season, Javonte Williams got the start, and Samaje Perine's snaps more closely mirrored Dobbins' snaps this preseason.
Perine was the primary third-down back for the Broncos during training camp last season, which made sense given his ability in pass-protection, and guess who else is really good in pass pro? That's right, Dobbins.
But that third-down back role isn't the most fruitful. If that's where Dobbins lives in 2025, that'll clear the runway for the more explosive Harvey on early downs. One thing is for sure: whoever gets most of the work in the Denver backfield is going to crush.
They will be running behind one of the top three offensive lines in the NFL on an ascending offense led by one of the best young quarterbacks in the league, Bo Nix.
My bet is on the guy they used premium draft capital on, who they can't seem to stop talking about in camp.
TreVeyon Henderson, New England Patriots
Henderson, like Harvey, was a second-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft and is competing with a veteran for touches as a rookie.
However, the vet in front of Henderson, Rhamondre Stevenson, is currently battling an undisclosed injury.
Although not viewed as significant, any time he misses is an opportunity for the Ohio State rookie to shine, and he's doing just that every time he touches the field.
TreVeyon Henderson is just a wide receiver disguised as a running back — the #Patriots rookie is a threat in the passing game 👀
(🎥 @SeanBormanNFL)pic.twitter.com/XyO5JCukvI
— Carlos A. Lopez (@LosTalksPats) August 13, 2025
His first touch in an NFL preseason game was a kick return for a touchdown.
Here's new Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels gushing about Henderson. "Really hard worker, smart kid, can process a lot of information, explosive, tough, physical, I don't have many negatives to say about Tre."
Back to Stevenson, who hasn't been the same since his breakout season in 2022. He went from a career-best 4.95 yards per carry that year to just 3.97 and 3.87 in 2023 and 2024, respectively. In 2024, Stevenson ranked just 41st in percentage of yards to come on explosive runs (18.4%) and just 40th in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.14).
There's a reason the Patriots took Henderson with the 38th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. He's explosive!
TreVeyon Henderson:
7.6 yards per touch in 2024
#1 in RB class
15% of runs gained 15+ yards
#1 in RB class
0 fumbles in 667 college touches
#1 in RB class
95th percentile explosion score in jumping drills pic.twitter.com/xfOOPwhpdN
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) March 13, 2025
Even if Stevenson gets the first crack at the starting job in Week 1, it won't be long before Henderson finds himself as the lead dog in what we expect to be an ascending Patriots offense.
Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs
Pacheco came on at the end of his rookie season in 2022. He then followed that up by finishing 11th among running backs in expected fantasy points per game (15.3) in 2023, per Fantasy Points Data.
Despite playing in just 14 games that season, Pacheco still finished 11th in first downs (53). By all intents and purposes, he was a workhorse.
His 2024 season started that way, too. Before fracturing his fibula in Week 2, Pacheco averaged 20.5 touches per game.
Per Fantasy Points Data, he was fifth among backs in expected fantasy points per game (19.4) in those two games. That came not only as a result of his rushing opportunity, but also his opportunity in the passing game.
Pacheco had the seventh-highest route participation rate (56.5%) among backs during that small stretch. His season-long outlook was auspicious. But then the injury derailed his season, and he was never the same. That's typically how it works with these types of injuries. It's nearly impossible for players to regain their pre-injury form in the same season.
But it's been almost a year now, and Pacheco is looking like his old, explosive self again in training camp. Per Chiefs' beat writer Pete Sweeney, his route running looks much improved.
Fantasy owners, take note: Isiah Pacheco looks healthy and explosive at camp #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/PEiDLnTrLz
— Taylor Burr (@TaylorBurr10) August 5, 2025
Meanwhile, his competition for touches isn't exactly stout. Kareem Hunt ranks dead last among backs in yards per touch since 2023, Elijah Mitchell has a lengthy injury history in four NFL seasons, and Brashard Smith is a seventh-round rookie.
If the Chiefs can get back to their ways of scoring points in bunches like they did in 2021 and 2022, Pacheco is going to be in for a monster 2025 season.
Bhayshul Tuten, Jacksonville Jaguars
We're going deep into our pockets for this one. After all, Tuten might not even be the starter for a good chunk of the season. However, you better believe Liam Coen wants to showcase his first running back pick as a head coach.
Last year, in his only season as offensive coordinator for the Buccaneers, it took over half of the season for rookie Bucky Irving to overtake the incumbent starter Rachaad White. This, despite Irving's superior play.
Let's not forget, Irving averaged 20.3 fantasy points per game in seven healthy games after the bye week last season.
However, Coen is now a first-time head coach. No more pandering to an old-school higher power like Todd Bowles. It's his team now. If Tuten is more explosive than Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby, he's going to play, and he's going to play often.
After being complimented for his "tough running" in Preseason Week 1, Coen had Tuten working with Trevor Lawrence and the starters the very next practice day.
Are there some things for Tuten to work on? Absolutely. He fumbled nine times in his last two seasons at Virginia Tech and graded poorly in pass-protection last year (47.7 PFF grade).
He then fumbled on his first carry in his first live setting in the NFL. The masses were quick to write him off. Don't be. Tuten was hand-picked by Coen despite the fumbling issues in college.
He is elusive and extremely athletic. Per Fantasy Points' Graham Barfield, Tuten ranks 10th among 111 college running backs since 2016 with a missed tackles forced per carry rate of 0.45. He also ran a 4.32 40-yard dash and has a 98th percentile speed score and 97th percentile burst score, per PlayerProfiler.
Tuten then immediately put the elusiveness and burst on full display in his first NFL game action.
Bhayshul Tuten’s first preseason carry.
Good job not getting stopped at the line of scrimmage and navigating the blocking to find a lane for 6. pic.twitter.com/s2AnRix0HU— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) August 10, 2025
As previously mentioned, this led to work with the first team offense the next time out in practice.
It's a dark horse for sure, but Tuten is a guy who could find himself atop the depth chart sooner rather than later, given Coen's propensity to play the more explosive back.
