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Adam Koffler's dark-horse candidates to finish as the overall fantasy football WR1 in 2025. Target these six wide receivers with league-winning upside.
Everyone knows the big boys when it comes to the wide receiver position in fantasy football. Guys like Ja'Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, and Nico Collins all have a good shot to finish the 2025 season as the overall WR1.
However, they're all smash first-round picks, and you can't draft them all in a traditional snake draft. Essentially, there's no edge in my telling you to draft those guys. Instead, we'll highlight five guys who have a legitimate shot to finish as the overall WR1 in fantasy football this season.
We'll call them "dark-horses." With average draft positions (ADP) ranging from pick 23 to pick 60, you can realistically draft a few of these guys on the same team this season. Here are your dark-horse contenders to finish as the overall WR1 in 2025.
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Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers
McConkey never put up video game numbers at the University of Georgia. He was efficient with his opportunities, but never averaged more than 53.1 receiving yards per game in any given season. As a result, he fell to the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft.
After averaging an efficient 71.8 receiving yards per game in his rookie season, it is now clear that his skill set translated to the NFL.
McConkey finished the 2024 season as a fringe-WR1 in fantasy football. Despite that, he has a Year 2 Yahoo ADP of 25th overall (WR11).
Per Matt Harmon's Reception Perception, McConkey posted a 98th percentile success rate vs. press coverage and an 83rd percentile success rate vs. man coverage. Truly elite stuff from a rookie with collegiate production that left a lot to be desired.
Now, let's look at some advanced receiving metrics courtesy of Fantasy Points Data. Including the playoffs, McConkey was fourth among wideouts in yards per route run (2.79) and seventh in first downs per route run (0.124). He finished seventh in fantasy points per route run (0.57). With just the 25th-highest route rate (82.6%), there's some meat on the bone for McConkey to outproduce his rookie season.
But what about the Keenan Allen signing? My advice: Don't let a 33-year-old, 12-year veteran who has likely hit the age cliff stop you from drafting one of the league's best and brightest stars at the position.
Yes, both McConkey and Allen man the slot, but it was McConkey who proved last season that he can win from a variety of different spots in a variety of different ways.
He is your first dark-horse contender to finish as the overall WR1 in 2025 fantasy football.
Ladd McConkey posted the NFL's highest separation win rate from the slot in 2024!
[20.3%, min. 100 slot routes]
...and he was just as consistent from out wide, averaging a 20.2% win rate. pic.twitter.com/EnLJtUAHRf
— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) August 6, 2025
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks
Seattle made numerous changes this offseason, most of which benefited Smith-Njigba. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are gone. They were replaced by 32-year-old Cooper Kupp, 30-year-old Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and rookie fifth-rounder Tory Horton.
The Seahawks also swapped out Geno Smith for Sam Darnold, while replacing offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb with former Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak.
While it's unclear whether going from Smith to Darnold is an upgrade or downgrade, the other moves certainly clear the runway for a Smith-Njigba breakout in Year 3.
After an underwhelming rookie season, Smith-Njigba took a massive leap in his sophomore season, going from 8.8 PPR fantasy points per game to 14.9. Per Fantasy Points Data, he finished 16th among wideouts in expected fantasy points per game.
But JSN played primarily from the slot in 2024. He led all wide receivers with an 83.9% slot rate. But things are changing in 2025. Kupp is a primary slot receiver himself, so he'll likely take a good chunk of those slot snaps off Smith-Njigba's hands.
That will allow Kubiak to move JSN all over the field, which should lead to better efficiency. Last season, he finished just 33rd in yards per route run (1.96) and 73rd in yards per reception (11.3). And it sounds like Smith-Njigba has been a "threat from everywhere" in training camp.
Despite a small sample size, both of Kubiak's top wide receivers in New Orleans (Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed) finished inside the top-28 in yards per route run in 2024.
Additionally, Metcalf led the league with 33 deep targets a season ago. That's a lot of vacated deep targets in Seattle, and we know Darnold isn't afraid to chuck it. Last season, both Jordan Addison and Jefferson were in the top 11 in deep targets.
JSN is your second dark-horse contender to finish as the overall WR1 in 2025 fantasy football.
Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs
If he weren't coming off a season-ending injury or awaiting a likely suspension, we'd be talking about Rice the same way we talk about Amon-Ra St. Brown. Both of these guys earn targets at a high rate, and both play on high-powered offenses. Granted, it's a small sample size, but Rice was on his way to a historic 2024 season before a knee injury abruptly ended it.
Per Fantasy Points Data, he led all wideouts in yards per route run (3.60) and was second in both first downs per route run (0.188) and targets per route run (0.36). And he's picking up in training camp right where he left off last season.
Reminder that Rashee Rice is a special talent. When he played last year, he was in the 96th percentile in separation created. @xepanalytics
— xEP Network | Projections & Analytics (@xEP_Network) August 4, 2025
Likely, Rice won't lead all wide receivers in total fantasy points in 2025 with a suspension looming, but he may lead the way in fantasy points per game.
Remember back to 2023, when Rice dominated for the Chiefs coming out of the bye week. He ranked seventh among wide receivers in fantasy points per game (18.6) from Week 12 on. As long as he's fully healthy, which all indications are that he is, Rice has a shot to be the overall WR1 on a points-per-game basis in 2025.
Update - Rice is expected to have his hearing with the NFL on September 30. As a result, Rice will now likely be able to play in the first four games of the season before any potential suspension is given.
Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers
The Panthers used the eighth overall pick on McMillan ("Tmac") in the 2025 NFL Draft. Malik Nabers was the sixth overall pick just a year ago, and he went on to see 170 targets in just 15 games.
Premium draft capital at the position usually equates to early opportunities. But can McMillan earn those targets in Carolina?
His college tape and analytics suggest he can, while the glowing reviews throughout training camp solidify that notion. McMillan was a 95th percentile prospect in Fantasy Footballers' Marvin Elequin's wide receiver rookie model, and now he's looking that part in his first NFL training camp.
TMac tuddy pic.twitter.com/Bw2kHYn2xO
— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) August 6, 2025
The Panthers' receiver group was decent in 2024, but they lacked a true alpha WR1. That's what McMillan can bring to the table. Last season at Arizona, McMillan forced 29 missed tackles. Per Fantasy Points Data, no other Panthers wide receiver forced more than eight in 2024.
Bryce Young was also much-improved last season after his benching in Week 3. Dave Canales made the tough call to sit his starting quarterback after two lackluster performances to start the year. However, it paid major dividends in 2024 and should continue to pay significant dividends in 2025.
In the final six weeks of the season, 34-year-old Adam Thielen was 16th in yards per route run (2.30), 13th in receiving yards per game (74.8), 15th in first downs per route run (0.108), and 17th in first-read target share (31.3%).
If a 34-year-old former undrafted free agent can put up those kinds of numbers in this offense, think about what a 22-year-old McMillan might be able to do working with an improved Young and second-year head coach Canales.
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
Waddle has burned fantasy managers the last two seasons, so it's understandable why you'd be hesitant to draft him in 2025, but with an ADP of 73 (WR32), you're getting him at his absolute floor.
As a rookie, Waddle caught a career-high 104 balls on a career-high 140 targets. He hasn't hit those marks since, most likely due to the arrival of Tyreek Hill in 2022.
But Hill is now 31 years old and showed signs of decline last season. His yards per route run dropped from an insane 3.96 in 2023 to just 1.99 in 2024. His first-read target share also fell from 37.5% to just 23.9%.
Per Matt Harmon of Reception Perception, Hill's success rate against man and press coverage fell significantly last season. His success rate against man coverage decreased from 75.8% to 67.3%, and his success rate against press coverage dropped from 82% to 72%.
Every veteran receiver ages differently. Some fall off the proverbial age cliff gradually, and others just free-fall like the Tower of Terror. There's at least a chance Hill is the latter and is toast, and with that comes a significant opportunity for Waddle.
Early reports at training camp suggest Waddle could be the new WR1 in town. Omar Kelly of the Miami Herald recently dubbed him "the new dop dawg" in the Dolphins' passing attack.
And let's not forget about Jonnu Smith's departure. He vacates a whopping 111 targets and a 21.1% first-read target share. Per Fantasy Points Data, he led all tight ends in first downs per route run (0.139). That's no longer there for Waddle to fend off.
Just two short years ago (before Smith's arrival), Waddle was sixth among wideouts in yards per route run (2.82), seventh in first downs per route run (0.132), and seventh in expected fantasy points per route run (0.55). That's elite stuff.
Jaylen Waddle top plays during the Miami Dolphins 2023 season.#FinsUp pic.twitter.com/fB4VuM8l9r
— Big E (@ian693) February 28, 2024
He did all of that playing alongside Hill, who had career-highs in targets (171), receptions (119), and yards (1,799) that season.
Now that Smith is no longer getting the "layup" targets and Hill could proverbially fall off a cliff (one way or another), a Year 5 breakout season is on the horizon for Waddle.
Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans
If Cam Ward, the number one overall pick in this year's NFL Draft, turns out to be elite, then Ridley has an outside shot to be the overall WR1 in 2025.
It seems like forever ago that Ridley finished the 2020 season as a top-5 fantasy wide receiver. That year, he caught 90 balls for 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns on a career-high 143 targets. He did so in just 15 games. But that was five years ago, so why should we expect him to turn back the clock and do it again in 2025?
Well, the efficiency is still there. Per Matt Harmon of Reception Perception, Ridley had an 85th percentile success rate vs. press coverage and a 75th percentile success rate vs. man coverage in 2024.
Per Fantasy Points Data, Ridley still managed to clear 2.00 yards per route run despite atrocious quarterback play. He also created as many missed forced tackles per reception as Drake London and Puka Nacua. The dude still has it.
.@Titans receiver @CalvinRidley1 gets open deep vs @Buccaneers pic.twitter.com/wLMpFsMJRo
— Jim Wyatt (@jwyattsports) August 7, 2025
Ridley is by far and away the Titans' top receiver. There's not even a close second. Lockett? Chig Okonkwo?
Last season, Ridley was second among wideouts in deep targets (30) and sixth in air yards share (44.4%). However, his catchable target rate ranked just 114th (67.5%) among wide receivers who ran at least 100 routes.
If Ward is even just average in his rookie season, Ridley's numbers could skyrocket in 2025.
