Four Overhyped Sleeper Candidates for Fantasy Football - Stop that Hype Train!

August 16, 2024

Ellis looks at overvalued fantasy football sleepers, who are actually busts candidates for 2024. Temper expectations for these players who have sky rocketed up 2024 draft boards.

One week of preseason down, and we already have some massive fantasy risers and fallers. Although it’s always important to keep a level head, this is the first “real” action from which we can draw conclusions.

Without being in the locker rooms, it’s hard to know exactly what’s going on with depth charts, target shares, and overall team involvement. However, the unknown is part of the fun in fantasy football.

We are stuck soaking up all the information we can and making our own conclusions. In this article, I’m going to list a few players who I believe are being overhyped. This list will have everything from running back usage to receiver reality checks. So sit back and buckle up because it’s time to pump the brakes.

Chase Brown (RB, CIN)

If you have followed my work this offseason, you’ve witnessed my faith in Zack Moss slowly dwindle. Since July, my belief in Moss has been taking on water. This article could potentially be a final way out of my Zack Moss support. If I was a rational individual, that would probably be the move. However, I’m going down with this ship and hoping I can pull a Jack Sparrow in the opening scene of Pirates of the Caribbean.

So why am I doubling down on this take after Chase Brown received all the starter snaps in the first preseason week? In part, it’s because of what he did with those snaps. One of my biggest concerns about Brown was his inefficiency between the tackles. In his first preseason game, he had five carries for 10 yards. That includes a six-yard run, meaning he went four carries for four yards outside of that carry. Although a small sample size, that did not help my concerns.

Along with his inefficiency, Brown was also called for a false start on an important third down. As a young player, it’s hard to hold that against him, but it certainly isn’t a positive. However, that’s a mistake that a veteran back such as Zack Moss will likely not make. Unfortunately, we did not get to see Moss in action as he was out due to illness.

Despite Brown’s meteoric rise up fantasy draft boards, it sounds that the coaches still view this as a 50-50 split. If a 50-50 split is the ceiling, the role will be very important. If this is the case, I think Moss’ role is the better one for fantasy for two reasons. The first is that Moss will more than likely be the one to receive goal line touches. The second is that Moss is very good at pass protection (something that is valued very highly by the Bengals). Unless Brown takes a massive step forward in his protection skills, I believe this has to be Moss’ job as well.

All in all, I can’t ignore the hype for Brown. He is an exciting young player with a lot of juice. Regardless of which RB you believe is the “lead,” it might be worth considering what a true split backfield may look like. Ultimately, maybe it’s best to fade both backs.

feels good to be back on this account pic.twitter.com/zQbabpVTAt

— WinksTape (@WinksTape) August 11, 2024

Dontayvion Wicks (WR, GB)

I have found Wicks fascinating this offseason. After flashing a few impressive games last year, the 2023 fifth-round pick received a lot of praise. Typically, when a day-three pick flashes in a crowded offense, it doesn’t mean much for fantasy. However, Wicks had many of the industry's best (Matt Harmon, Hayden Winks, Matt Waldman, to name a few) singing his praises. Now, that caught my attention. Since then, his fantasy stock has risen consistently. Although I do not doubt that he is a talented player, the hype train needs to slow down.

The popular saying “If you have two quarterbacks, you have no quarterbacks” is applicable here. Except it’s more like “If you have five receivers, you have no receivers for fantasy.” With Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Wicks, and Bo Melton all in the mix, it’s a fantasy football disaster. 

Each of these players has carved a role for themselves in this offense. This was on full display, as on their opening drive, they started with Watson, Reed, and Doubs (the expected trio). On the second play, Reed left the field. On the third play, Reed rejoined the lineup, and Wicks replaced Watson, scoring a 65-yard touchdown. That hurts my head. Everyone is going to latch onto the touchdown, which was nice, but skip over how each player was rotated through. 

In Best Ball leagues, if you want to stack a receiver with Jordan Love, Wicks is a solid pick in the later rounds. However, in any managed league, he’ll be nearly impossible to play every week. I’d rather take a shot on players with a clear path to weekly consistency and high upside potential, such as Adonai Mitchell, Rashid Shaheed, or Jahan Dotson.

Jordan Love. Dontayvion Wicks. TOUCHDOWN. That was electric pic.twitter.com/PAHYeIDnfS

— Lily Zhao (@LilySZhao) August 10, 2024

Jermaine Burton (WR, CIN)

Burton had all the characteristics of a sleeper for 2024. After falling in the NFL Draft due to character concerns, his third-round draft capital was at least a round later than his talent indicates. Then he went to the Bengals, who recently lost Tyler Boyd and were in contract troubles with Tee Higgins. What a path for a talented rookie to walk into.

Not so fast. Although reports out of camp have been positive, Andrei Iosivas has been the talk of the town. To further solidify this depth chart, Burton’s usage in the preseason was concerning. With Ja’Marr Chase sitting out, Iosivas and Trenton Irwin started alongside Tee Higgins when Burrow was playing. Burton did not see the field until the end of the second quarter and failed to make his mark until the fourth. He did have a nice touchdown catch, but the fact he was playing that late into the game indicates he may be lower on the depth chart than expected.

Long term, Burton is a very promising player who could see an increased role if Higgins leaves next season. However, for this season, he may not be on the field enough to be fantasy-relevant.

Tired: Jermaine Burton barely played until the 4th quarter. Preseason performance doesn't really matter, usage and playing time does.

Wired: Look at these two sweet plays! pic.twitter.com/IkemHeMB11

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) August 12, 2024

J.K. Dobbins (RB, LAC)

To be clear, I’m rooting for Dobbins. Unfortunately, such an exciting young player has had to constantly battle through injuries. These haven’t been just any injuries. These have been severe leg injuries that all require a grueling recovery process. Still, Dobbins finds himself with an opportunity on the Chargers this year.

Although the hype has yet to get too out of control, the camp reports have been pumping Dobbins’ tires. With Gus Edwards working back from injury and the rookie Kimani Vidal working his way up the depth chart, Dobbins has been the main guy. 

Before Dobbins is crowned the leader of this backfield, we need to seriously consider his injury history and contract. Dobbins’ contract with the Chargers only has $50,000 guaranteed. That’s the first red flag. The second is that backs typically don’t return to form after tearing their Achilles until at least a few years. For example, Cam Akers was another promising young back who found himself jumping around teams after returning from his Achilles tear.

Akers is just one example of many players who fail to return to their previous form. Whether it’s D’Onta Foreman or Marlon Mack, I could keep showcasing the fall-off from these injuries. It’s not impossible that Dobbins can be the exception, but it’s very unlikely. I am playing the odds and taking any other dart throw (such as the aforementioned Andrei Iosivas, or rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr.) over the veteran back.

Invest in JK Dobbins ⚡️
pic.twitter.com/wLfl6mgUCI

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) August 4, 2024

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