The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Fantasy Baseball Week 19

July 29, 2024

Jamie's list of busts, overvalued, and injured players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 19 of the 2024 MLB season.

Welcome back to The Cut List for Week 19 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season -- July 29 through August 4. This is our weekly article looking at players whom fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. Following a week-long hiatus during the All-Star Break, we return with a special feature looking at what to do with some of the highly-rostered injured players. Plus, our usual look at some struggling hitters and pitchers.

If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit, the RotoBaller Discord (which you can join by clicking here), or reach out to me on X (@Baseball_Jimbo), and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Injury Conundrums

For this week only, we will look at some of the more highly rostered players currently on the IL. While I always advocate holding an injured player if you have an IL spot available, not everyone has that luxury. Especially with the number of injured stars there are coming out of the All-Star break.

Injured players are regularly requested for The Cut List. The difficulty with assessing them is how different leagues handle the IL. Some have multiple IL spots, some just have bench spots to stash injured players on. Ultimately, you will need to assess how easy it is to hold an injured player on your rosters. Especially if you don't have a spare IL slot for them. That bench spot may be better utilized by a healthy player.

The star trio of Fernando Tatis Jr., Julio Rodriguez, and Kyle Tucker are not under consideration for dropping. Nor are top starting pitchers Max Fried and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. But there are still some players that are highly rostered and underperformed before getting injured. Or some lesser-rostered players who were performing above expectations before winding up on the IL. These are the names we're going to focus on here.

Michael Harris II - OF, Atlanta Braves - 89% rostered 

Last week, Harris II was someone I was all in favor of stashing. I was optimistic about a mid-August return from his hamstring injury. At least six weeks of a fully healthy Harris II could be huge, despite his struggles this season. Unfortunately, he experienced a bit of a setback. Harris II stated he's still confident of returning when eligible on August 14. However, player confidence isn't a great guide for such matters.

Michael Harris II feels confident he can return by Aug. 14, when he's eligible to come off the 60-day injured list.

— Justin Toscano (@JustinCToscano) July 26, 2024

I'm still holding onto Harris II. If we get news of any setback that will mean he misses August, I'm fine dropping him in all but deep leagues or dynasty formats.

Ozzie Albies - 2B, Atlanta Braves - 86% rostered 

The Braves injury bug struck again when Albies suffered a fractured wrist last Sunday. He was placed on the IL and is expected to miss eight weeks. That would leave Albies with only around two weeks of the regular season. Depending on the Braves playoff status, they'll want to ensure he's fully healthy for the postseason. That could mean Albies will barely play again before October. Albies is fine to drop if you're struggling for an IL spot to hold him on.

Jared Jones - SP, Pittsburgh Pirates - 73% rostered

Jones has been on the IL since July 4 with a lat strain. The good news is Jones has begun throwing and completed a 30-pitch bullpen session this weekend. He'll likely need a couple of rehab outings soon but with the Pirates in the hunt for a Wildcard spot, they'll want Jones back as soon as he's ready. The rookie was having a great season before the injury and a possible innings limit shouldn't be an issue anymore. Jones is someone I'm holding onto.

Triston Casas - 1B, Boston Red Sox - 68% rostered

Last weekend, the Red Sox said "it will be a while" until Casas can begin a rehab assignment. Seems like little more than a week is "a while" as it was revealed on Friday that Casas is close to going out on a rehab assignment. Assuming that goes well and Casas has no setbacks, a return in around one week seems realistic. Maybe August 5 is worth penciling in for that. Casas is someone I'd continue to hold given he's close to a return.

Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas is taking full batting practice and could begin a rehab assignment by the end of the week, according to CBO Craig Breslow on @TheGregHillShow. pic.twitter.com/Y3uZDsR6q2

— Chris Henrique (@ChrisHenrique) July 25, 2024

Max Muncy - 3B, Los Angeles Dodgers - 67% rostered 

Muncy landed on the IL due to an oblique injury in mid-May. He's eligible to return any time but only started swinging a bat a week ago and we haven't had any updates this week. I'm sure we see Muncy in August, assuming he has no significant setbacks so he's still worth holding if you need a power boost to end the season. The lack of clarity isn't ideal and in shallower leagues, I wouldn't prioritize holding Muncy on the IL over others.

Max Muncy picked up a bat for soft toss swings yesterday, Dave Roberts said. Still no real timetable for a return.

— Fabian Ardaya (@FabianArdaya) July 19, 2024

Merrill Kelly - SP, Arizona Diamondbacks - 66% rostered

Kelly hasn't pitched since April 15 due to a shoulder injury. He has been making progress and throwing bullpens recently with a simulated game scheduled today. That indicates a rehab assignment shouldn't be too far away. Given the length of time Kelly has been out, he'll likely need multiple outings before returning to the Diamondbacks rotation. The fact that seems close makes Kelly worthwhile holding onto and is one of the best starting pitching stashes.

Joe Musgrove - SP, San Diego Padres - 62% rostered 

Musgrove has come through his bullpen sessions unscathed following his elbow injury. He's set to go out on a rehab assignment next week. Given the nature of his injury, the Padres won't want to rush him back despite being in the hunt for a postseason berth. There's a chance Musgrove spends most of August at a minor league affiliate.

Having struggled mightily before the injury (5.66 ERA in 10 starts) and with only a handful of more starts possible this year, he's not a sure-fire hold in shallower leagues. He's not a definite cut but isn't a priority stash at this point.

Clarke Schmidt - SP, New York Yankees - 47% rostered

Last weekend, Schmidt threw his first bullpen session since landing on the IL with a lat strain. He was scheduled to throw another one yesterday and looks set to head out for a rehab assignment in early August. A late August return to the Bronx is likely. The main reason why that's newsworthy is what it may mean for the Yankees rotation.

Yankees injury updates:

DH Giancarlo Stanton: "Stacking days" of work. Team will decide by July 27-28 if Stanton needs a Minor League rehab assignment

RHP Clarke Schmidt: Completed 20 pitch bullpen on Saturday, "a good step for him," Boone said.

RHP Cody Poteet: Tossing…

— Bryan Hoch ⚾️ (@BryanHoch) July 21, 2024

The expectation is that Luis Gil will have his workload managed more in the coming weeks. That may coincide with Schmidt's return. Obviously, the Yankees could add a starter before the trade deadline. For Schmidt, he was on course for a breakout year. While a sub-3,00 ERA on his return isn't realistic, he's certainly worth rostering in almost all formats. Schmidt is worth holding and could have a big impact on the AL East title race.

Don't forget, at RotoBaller we have a regular injury update article and individual player news so be sure to check them out as well.

Hold For Now

Carlos Rodon - SP, New York Yankees - 84% rostered 

Rodon has frustrated fantasy managers more than any other pitcher over the last two seasons. His time with the Yankees has not gone as planned. After a season fraught with injury last year, Rodon started 2024 like an ace. Things started to turn south in June. If we look over his season as a whole, it's only really been blighted by a five-game stretch across June and July.

Over the entire season to date, Rodon has a 10-7 W-L record, 4.42 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 122 Ks (114.0 IP). I'm not one to cherry-pick which starts we should look at and ignore. Rodon's numbers are what they are for a reason. Take away that bad five-start stretch in which Rodon allowed 27 earned runs in 23 innings, he'd have a 2.87 ERA.

Rodon's 4.21 xFIP and 3.87 SIERA suggest he was due to have some pullback on his ERA to start the season. If we look at his numbers by month, we can see just how topsy-turvy it's been. Rodon's underlying numbers show that he should've had a higher ERA than he did in the first two months. While June and July should've been his best months of the season.

If we look beneath the surface, there are promising signs for Rodon. His last two starts have been better, especially Monday's outing against the Rays. Providing Rodon's health doesn't become an issue, there's every reason to be optimistic that he can have a solid end to 2024. Rodon is someone I'm holding onto in any league size and would check to see if he's been dropped in your league.

Colton Cowser - OF, Baltimore Orioles - 23% rostered 

It might seem odd to condone holding a player on less than a quarter of rosters. Yet, that's what I'm suggesting. Cowser was one of the most added players in fantasy baseball earlier in the season after he hit .303/.372/.632 in the first month of the season. Back-to-back months of a sub-.200 batting average changed that. However, Cowser has been quietly good in July. He's hit .294/.379/.451 with a 140 wRC+ this month.

The Orioles have struggled in July, but still have an elite offense. That's helped Cowser to nine RBI and seven runs in 16 July games. He's doing his part and it's hard to see the Orioles not continuing to score runs. As long as Coswer continues to do his part, the counting stats will improve. He's also been a mainstay in the Orioles lineup.

Even when he was struggling, his defense kept him in the lineup and he ranks tied-fourth on the team with 96 games played. Cowser will likely only have been held in deeper leagues and there's certainly no reason to drop him now in such formats. In shallower leagues, he's well worth a look. Especially if you've been hit by injuries to your outfield. Cowser is someone I'd hold in any league if you have done so up until now.

On the Hot Seat

Jose Berrios - SP, Toronto Blue Jays - 85% rostered 

After something of a bounce-back season in 2023, Berrios has once again struggled this year. After 21 starts, Berrios has an 8-8 W-L record, 4.08 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 92 Ks (123 2/3 IP). Very mediocre numbers and a concerning lack of strikeouts. Berrios's 18.0% K% is his lowest since his debut season in 2016 (17.4% K% in 58 1/3 IP). It also ranks in the 17th percentile.

It is important to remember that in roto leagues we're looking for an accumulation of strikeouts and Berrios does have plenty of volume when it comes to innings pitched. Since the start of the 2021 season, only four pitchers have totaled more innings than Berrios (677 1/3 IP). Despite only 15 pitchers throwing more innings than Berrios this year, 66 pitchers have more strikeouts. There's no denying he's been a workhorse.

The problem has been the results. And they've not been getting any better. Berrios had a 1.44 ERA at the end of April (43 2/3 IP) but things have gone downhill since then with July being his worst month of the year. In four starts (19 2/3 IP), he has a 7.78 ERA this month. If we compare Berrios ERA and xFIP throughout the season, it shows us that what we're seeing was to be expected. Berrios has outperformed his xFIP (4.59) and SIERA (4.55).

It's something Berrios did last year, with a 3.65 ERA, 4.01 xFIP, and 4.08 SIERA. That was partly why I wasn't very high on him this year. However, Berrios has been more disappointing than I expected. The saying about the best ability being availability does have some weight to it when evaluating Berrios but he's not been providing any value in recent starts.

With so many crocked starting pitchers, Berrios being available every fifth day is something fantasy managers covet. However, unless the results change then they'd be better off looking elsewhere. The Blue Jays won't be improving their roster over the next couple of days so Berrios situation won't get better. Another two or three bad starts will leave him very much in the droppable category.

Reader Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on X and we'll endeavor to cover as many requests as we can each week.

Gleyber Torres - 2B, New York Yankees - 67% rostered 

Torres has probably been the most requested player this season. He's been featured twice already and hopefully, this will be the final time we include him in The Cut List. His season as a whole has been disappointing with a .236/.310/.368 slash line, 10 homers, 39 RBI, 45 runs, and four steals (100 games). That's left him ranked 29th among second basemen on Yahoo! Over the last 30 days, Torres ranks 15th at the position.

That's obviously an improvement but we should still be tempering expectations. In the seven games since the All-Star break, Torres has hit .300/.344/.600 with two home runs and three doubles. It may appear that Torres has finally turned his season around. His 130 wRC+ in July does make it seem like that. If we consider Torres had a 102 wRC+ in July before the All-Star break, it's only really a seven-game stretch of providing value.

If we look at his rolling xwOBA, Torres has only just reached a league-average level. It's tough to trust that the last week of success will be sustained. That being said, if you have held Torres to this point, I wouldn't drop him now. I'd have had no issue with you dropping Torres earlier in the season and depending on who you replace him with, wouldn't give it a second glance if you did do it now. It's probably worth giving Torres some more time and hope that this hot spurt continues.

Sean Murphy - C, Atlanta Braves - 63% rostered 

I could probably do a weekly article solely on catchers and who should and shouldn't be cut. In reality, there are not many catchers I'd consider "must roster" players. Murphy isn't one of them. Volume can play an important factor at the position and Murphy lacks that. He's in a timeshare with Travis d'Arnaud and as long as Marcell Ozuna occupies the designated hitter spot, three games a week is as much as we can expect from Murphy.

An oblique injury meant Murphy missed two months earlier this season. There's been no suggestion that he is still experiencing issues with it. Given how physically demanding the catcher position is, it's unlikely that Murphy can be 100% healthy or play with an oblique issue. The fact Murphy has been outperformed by d'Arnaud (as we can see below) hasn't helped his cause to get more playing time.

The Braves have been beset with injuries and underperforming hitters. Murphy has fallen into both categories. It's entirely reasonable to believe that the two-month IL stint has impacted him this season. So Murphy is not someone I'm ruling out of having a productive 2025 season. For this year, I'm fine moving on from Murphy in one-catcher leagues.

MacKenzie Gore - SP, Washington Nationals - 47% rostered 

After 21 starts, Gore has a 6-8 W-L record, 4.51 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and 121 Ks (105 2/3 IP). By no means am I suggesting that Gore is a "must roster" player, but he has value and could be a solid starting option over the season's final two months. That's despite Friday being a fourth consecutive bad start. His last four starts (15 IP) have seen Gore allow 18 earned runs and walk 14 batters.

The walks will continue to be an issue and his 9.1% BB% ranks in the 35th percentile despite being a career-low. Gore will minimize the damage of the walks with his good strikeout rate (25.6% K%) which ranks in the 74th percentile. If we look at some of Gore's underlying numbers, Gore can also be considered unlucky.

He's sporting a 3.84 xFIP and 3.87 SIERA. Gore also has a .363 BABIP, the highest among the 70 qualified starters. It's fair to believe his ERA has been inflated and can come down. We also need to consider the impact of his strikeouts. Gore's 121 Ks are tied for 25th most among the qualified starters which carries value and shouldn't diminish in the coming weeks. Recent results haven't been ideal but may be fixed with a tweak to his pitch usage.

If we look at the below, we can see that in July, Gore threw his curveball 15.9% of the time. He used it 20.7% of the time in the first three months of the season. That's a significant difference given it has a .213 batting average and .239 wOBA against it. It's been Gore's best pitch this season so a 4.8 percentage point drop in its usage will harm his results.

It wouldn't surprise me if Gore ended the season with a 4.50 ERA. And his WHIP will cause you some issues. I'd be less surprised if Gore was able to bring his ERA closer to 4.00, tally top-25 strikeout numbers the rest of the season, and be a viable option in all league sizes. It depends on your team's needs but given the glut of injuries, Gore remains a rosterable starting pitching option in almost any league.

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