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Ben explains how to use MLB prospect rankings lists to win fantasy baseball leagues. He analyzes a composite of six prospect lists and provides expert advice.
There are many excellent sources to get prospect information for MLB fantasy leagues. Some, like Baseball America, have been putting together prospect lists for 30+ years. Others are fairly new to the game but have excellent writers and evaluators to offer plenty of insight.
What does all of that mean for your fantasy league, though? How should those lists be viewed when valuing players in dynasty leagues? What about in redraft leagues?
For this piece, I reviewed six of the most well-regarded prospect lists in the industry. That does not mean that these are the only lists or even the best lists, just that they're typically standard-bearer lists. The six included were from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, ESPN, Keith Law, FanGraphs, and MLB Pipeline (some lists require a subscription). To see the full spreadsheet of all 155 players that appeared on one of the lists, check out this link.
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Using Prospect Lists in Fantasy Baseball
Stop me if you've heard this (or something similar) before in your dynasty or fantasy league:
"Max Meyer isn't even ranked in the top 100 by (pick a list), so he's not worth..."
In reviewing the six lists, one thing is very clear that should be asserted immediately in this discussion -- prospect lists are not made for fantasy players.
Okay, let's get this clear, the largest market in readership for prospect lists is 100% the fantasy player, but prospect lists are written to exalt "real baseball" skills, not players who have skills that could impact fantasy leagues down the line. There can be plenty of overlap, but it's not an equal value.
Many organizations that do traditional prospect lists are also adding fantasy-based lists to their repertoire, most notably Baseball America, who dove head first into the fantasy baseball game in the last few years. The difference between their dynasty prospect list and their traditional prospect list shows a number of the issues with using a traditional prospect list to value players in fantasy.
That said, these lists can give us an indication of some players that we should be watching going into next season.
Top of the Heap
So, in averaging the players that were in prospect lists, I utilized a points system where a player would receive points equal to 101 minus the player's rank. For instance, the top player in a list would receive 100 points.
Based on that points system, the top 10 guys would be Jackson Holliday (600 points), Jackson Chourio (589), Junior Caminero (584), Wyatt Langford (581), Dylan Crews (567), Evan Carter (566), Ethan Salas (561), Paul Skenes (558), Jordan Lawlar (545), and James Wood (538).
Holliday is an elite player, and he should be such for fantasy, but a great example of the difference between a real-life list and a fantasy list is the placement of Ethan Salas. While Salas has elite raw tools and made it to Double-A at 17 years old last year, his offensive skills would not put him in this spot in a fantasy-based list. In our most recent update to the top 250 prospects here on RotoBaller, Salas ranked 29th, still plenty high, but not the seventh that he ranked in the composite rankings.
The guys who finished 11th and 12th overall in the composite (Samuel Basallo, Walker Jenkins) would both rank higher in a fantasy-driven list because of their potentially elite offensive skill set.
Potential Finds
There is a value to looking over the composite rankings to potentially find some value gems that may be missed by others in your leagues or at least undervalued for their talent.
The first player in the composite who did not make all six lists is Rockies infielder Adael Amador.
The first player to appear in less than two-thirds of the lists only appeared on two -- River Ryan, the Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher. Ryan was ranked 19 by FanGraphs and 33 by Keith Law, but he did not appear on any other lists. Ryan is a former two-way player who had his first full season on the mound last year, pitching in Double-A and Triple-A, striking out 110 over 104 1/3 innings.
Ryan was ranked 198th in our most recent top-250, in large part because he's 25 and has high reliever risk, but the points that Eric Longenhagen and Keith Law make are well-stated. Frankly, Ryan is receiving some extra looks from me right now and could definitely move up the next top-250.
The best-ranked player who appeared on just one list was Zach Dezenzo of the Astros, who ranked 102 in the composite. He was ranked #40 by Baseball Prospectus, the only site that ranked him. The 12th-round pick in 2022 out of Ohio State had an impressive year working up to Double-A this year and showed impressive raw power and smart instincts on the bases.
He could be in line to take over third in Houston when Alex Bregman leaves in free agency after this year, so now could be the time to jump on Dezenzo.
Hopefully, this helps you be able to combat the guy in your league who tries to use a "real baseball" list to determine fantasy value...then again, you could always use that to get players that are underrated by those who aren't reviewing fantasy lists and only see the real-life lists!
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