RADIO
We may be in the heat of basketball season, but we're discussing a different kind of rebound today.
Some of the most talented athletes in the world have suboptimal seasons but there's often a bounceback year in the near future. The talent isn't waning, the circumstances surrounding them have been altered.
Below we dive into five candidates who can exceed their 2023 output in the 2024 NFL season.
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
- 2023 Finish: QB8
He's a newly minted three-time Super Bowl champion, the face of the NFL, and yet was a bust for fantasy football.
Patrick Mahomes was the not-quite-unanimous first quarterback selected in fantasy drafts, making his QB8 finish more disappointing. The magic lost a bit of its muster. Mahomes delivered career lows in yards per attempt, yards per game, touchdown rate, and the highest interception mark of his illustrious career.
The advanced statistics and eye test confirm that Mahomes hasn't lost anything other than receiving options. Tyreek Hill has been gone for several seasons but Travis Kelce's All-Pro play was enough to keep the offense afloat. Whether it was due to age or injury (or other distractions), Kelce couldn't do it all on his own in 2023. That left Mahomes to take deep shots to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson, Kadarius Toney, and rookie Rashee Rice. Mahomes' deep ball competition percentage tanked and he had the most dropped pass attempts in the league.
Rice grew as his rookie season progressed and he'll be a key part of the aerial attack moving forward. His ascension will coincide with Kelce's steady decline, so the need for another option remains. The draft is a good start as this wide receiver class is very deep on paper. Free agent additions are on the table, although the big names (Mike Evans, Michael Pittman Jr., and Tee Higgins) are seemingly not attainable.
Kansas City figures to be spending the newly acquired cap space to bring back All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones and cornerback L'Jarius Sneed. The Chiefs can't play with fire again and trot out the same group of wide receivers in 2024. Any upgrade will help Mahomes' fantasy numbers.
Ja'Marr Chase / Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals
- 2023 Finish: WR11 / WR51
Two receivers drafted in the first three rounds, two letdowns.
For Ja'Marr Chase, there's little reason for concern. One of the league's best receivers finished as the WR11 despite having Joe Burrow for just over half of the season (that includes the slow start that we've grown accustomed to seeing from Cincinnati). Once teams got film on Jake Browning, Chase was pushed down to the weekly start/sit conversation. In the weeks with Burrow, Chase was the very respectable WR7. That's not the WR2 overall that he was drafted to be, but he wasn't completely burning fantasy managers like the WR70 he was in the final five weeks.
Tee Higgins is more fickle. The Bengals made the first move to get the former second-round pick back on the field at Paycor Stadium. Higgins has been given the franchise tag, preventing him from entering free agency. In the long term, he'll need more guarantees as the potentially record-breaking extension for Chase looms. For now, barring a trade, he's wearing orange stripes. He'll be the WR2 once again, while another team could have offered him the opportunity to be the alpha, albeit likely with an inferior quarterback.
Bengals have informed WR Tee Higgins they are franchising him. (via @RapSheet) pic.twitter.com/YUl2Ni62SJ
— NFL (@NFL) February 24, 2024
Higgins is often overdrafted, with fantasy managers banking on his skillset and the Cincinnati offense. While he hit the 1,000-yard threshold in his second and third seasons, his highest fantasy finish is WR18. He was drafted as the WR16 last summer. Injuries tanked his chances of matching his ADP, but there were big misses in his healthy games. His campaign began with a goose egg and ended with one catch for 19 yards (although he did leave that game early with yet another injury). All of that added up to career lows in receptions (42), yards (656), and touchdowns (five).
With a healthy Burrow back under center in 2024, Chase and Higgins should return to form. Chase will be a top-five wideout once again. Higgins, who I'm admittedly less optimistic about, could be a WR2 if he shores up his injury issues.
A similar case can be made for the Jets' Garrett Wilson, who lost his quarterback Aaron Rodgers before he was even targeted. The second-year pro received the fourth-most targets of any player in the league but secured just 56.5% of them and rarely found paydirt. Any quarterback should be an upgrade in New York.
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons
- 2023 Finish: WR37
Drake London did not hold down Drake London in 2023, Arthur Smith and quarterback play did. One of those issues has been resolved. Smith is out, Raheem Morris is in. He wasted no time hyping up two of the offensive stars in Atlanta.
What stands out to Raheem Morris about the Falcons offense?
1. Drake London
2. Bijan Robinson pic.twitter.com/72Tw3ZMnoz— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) February 5, 2024
London caught 69 of 110 targets for 905 yards and two scores in 2023. The former first-round pick only had three games with double-digit targets. Those target numbers don't match those of an alpha wide receiver. Six wideouts averaged 10 or more targets. 31 of them saw higher target numbers per game than London. It's even more concerning when there weren't any other receivers on the Falcons to demand targets. Mack Hollins (30 targets) and midseason addition Van Jefferson (28) were next in line.
The second issue, quarterback play, is still pending. Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke combined for 17 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Neither one averaged 200 passing yards per game. Supporting a WR1 (or even a WR2) in fantasy football isn't possible with that kind of passing numbers. Both are under contract in 2024, although the Falcons can move on from Heinicke with little burden.
Will the Falcons upgrade through the draft or trade? They're slotted to select eighth in April, taking Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels off the table, barring a trade. J.J. McCarthy is an option, but he's seemingly better suited for a developmental season. Selecting him won't benefit London, at least initially. Otherwise, they could trade up or spend a later selection on Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr.
The attainable veterans (the band-aid options, if you will) are also enticing. Justin Fields, should the Bears draft Caleb Williams, will be searching for a new home via trade and he happens to be from Georgia. Kirk Cousins is a free agent. He's favored to remain in Minnesota, but if another team comes calling with a hefty contract, he may not say no. Russell Wilson's time in Denver is done. Any of those options should, in theory, boost London's value. A darkhorse option is that the Falcons draft McCarthy and bring in a veteran like Jacoby Brissett as a stopgap.
Times are changing in Atlanta and it's only a matter of time before London is recognized and utilized as the elite talent that he is. If there's competent quarterback play, he'll flourish. If not, be prepared to be disappointed again.
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders*
*free agent this summer
- 2023 Finish: RB28
Be cautious of players who sit out for the majority of training camp. Josh Jacobs didn't show up until the end of August due to contract disputes with the Raiders. Some running backs can overcome the lack of conditioning (Ezekiel Elliott) but others (Melvin Gordon, Maurice Jones-Drew) collapse. Although physically ready to play when the regular season kicked off, Jacobs' rushing production wasn't there. He didn't run for over 75 yards until Week 6, including negative two yards in Week 2.
There were some boom weeks along the way in 2023. In the end, his rushing total was less than half of the 1,653 yards he racked up the year prior. Of course, he missed the final four games and was never going to replicate the league-leading total again. The Raiders did try and give him every opportunity to do so, however.
Jacobs led the league in opportunity share and finished second behind Kyren Williams in rushing attempts per game (17.9). He remained heavily involved in the passing attack in Sin City bdafantut opposing defenses stacked the box often (Jacobs faced the most defenders in the box on average) as they did not respect the threat of the pass. Quarterback play was not up to par.
Then-interim coach Antonio Pierce stuck with Josh McDaniels' plan of primarily riding one running back. Even when Jacobs' season came to an early end, Zamir White stepped in as the bell cow. It will be interesting to see if that trend continues now that Pierce is the full-time leader.
A lot of that probably hinges on whether Jacobs returns to the Silver and Black. There are murmurs about a potential new deal. Las Vegas also has the option of putting the franchise tag on Jacobs again, although the former Alabama back could opt to not sign that deal, just as he did last summer. White also proved to be an above-adequate option when called upon.
That stiff arm 😳
Zamir White running angry
📺: #LVvsKC on CBS/NICK
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/2Mgsj0ajbL pic.twitter.com/sXo39Ot9to— NFL (@NFL) December 25, 2023
The running back free agent market is as robust as ever, with Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard, Austin Ekeler, and more searching for new contracts. As the dominoes fall, Jacobs will find a home, whether in a new city or Vegas. Could he be the new leader of the backfield in Dallas or New York? With (presumably) a full training camp and the lion's share of touches wherever he is, the 26-year-old still has plenty of tread on his tires to bounce back.
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