The Fantasy Football Pie Shop, Week 8 (2023)

October 25, 2023

The term “Pie Shop” is an Australian term used to determine whether or not a player will score a touchdown. Ellis applies this to the NFL and predicts six players who will find the end zone in Week 8.

It’s not PSL season (Pumpkin Spice Latte) it’s Pie season! This week there are plenty of pies to choose from with no teams on bye. Last week, we went 2-0 on locks, 0-2 on solid picks, and 0-2 on our long shots.

For those of you who are new, welcome to the Pie Shop. I came across the term “Pie Shop” while following Rugby in Australia. They used this iconic term to determine whether or not they believed a player would score a Try (or in this case, touchdown). If a player was predicted to score, the Pie Shop was declared “open” for that week.

For the third week, we are sticking to this new format. Instead of providing six selections that are uncommon touchdown calls, I will be dividing it into three sections. I will have, a few picks I view to be locks (most likely superstars), two picks that I have decent confidence in (Solid Picks), and two deeper picks (Shots). I will then keep track of my success rate within each section. My name is Ellis Johnson and this is your Week Eight Pie Shop.

Locks (5-2)

Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)

Bills vs. Buccaneers, Thursday 5:15 PST

Diggs is having a special season. When you’re as good as Diggs, that’s saying something. With six-plus receptions in every game, five games with 100+ yards, and six touchdowns, this is the perfect combination of elite fantasy production and consistency.

This week, the Bills look to bounce back against a Buccaneers team that struggles against the pass. Tampa Bay has allowed 200 yards and a touchdown a game to the WR position this season. Considering Desmond Ridder passed for 250 yards against this team last week, Josh Allen should have a field day this Sunday. Book Diggs in for his seventh touchdown on the season, opening this week's Pie Shop early.

A.J. Brown (WR, PHI)

Eagles @ Commanders, Sunday 10:00 AM PST

From one elite WR having a special season to another. For anyone unaware of A.J. Brown’s game, they saw it on full display last week on Primetime. Brown was incredible against the Dolphins last week. Funny enough, even Jalen Hurts thought he looked like vintage Julio Jones making big plays and physically outplaying his coverage. 

He now faces a commander team that still has nightmares about Brown a few weeks ago. Brown started a three-week stretch of WRs having 125+ yards against this secondary. I can’t imagine that this team will want to give up 175 and two to Brown again, but they may not have a choice. I expect Brown will keep this incredible 125+ yard stretch going another week and add another touchdown to his total.

Travis Kelce (TE, KC)

Chiefs @ Broncos

Whether Taylor Swift is there or not, this Broncos team doesn’t have an answer for Travis Kelce. Just when we thought he was having a “down year” he exploded for 12 catches, 179 yards, and a score on National Tight Ends Day.

He now faces a Broncos team for the second time in three weeks. In his first meeting, he dropped 124 yards on nine catches, with seven catches coming in the first half. Although this Broncos team has been able to stifle most tight ends (giving up all the points to the RB), Kelce is a different beast. I expect him to have another monster day and open the Pie Shop against another divisional foe.

Solid Picks (1-5)

Puka Nacua (WR, LAR)

Rams @ Cowboys, Sunday 10:00 AM PST

Just when Nacua haters had a glimpse of a decline with Cooper Kupp’s return, he came up huge last week. With Kupp being held to only two grabs, Nacua had eight catches for 158 yards.

The Cowboys are a top-three defense against WRs and will have their work cut out for them this week. With Stefon Gilmore as their only true elite corner, they rely on their pass rush to hit home more often than not. Unfortunately, Matthew Stafford is not known for his mobility. However, I expect most of the attention will be on Kupp, opening up Nacua for easy receptions and a touchdown this week.

Davante Adams (WR, LVR)

Raiders vs. Lions, Monday 5:15 PM PST

The squeaky wheel gets the grease. We saw that last week after Adams called to be more involved and proceeded to be targeted on each of their first seven pass attempts. Unfortunately, that only amounted to seven catches for 57 yards, but with Brian Hoyer under center, that’s not too bad.

I usually avoid big names in this section of my article, however, Adams has been limited by QB play and a shoulder issue for almost all of this season. Without scoring a touchdown since Week Three, Adams can use a little nudge to open the Pie Shop. 

We all hope Jimmy Garropolo is back this week, potentially making this game more competitive than expected. After all, the Lions will be looking for blood after getting embarrassed by Baltimore. The Raiders will need to keep up on the scoreboard to have a shot at this one, setting the stage for Adams.

Taking Shots (1-5)

Miles Sanders (RB, CAR)

Panthers vs Texans, Sunday 10:00 AM PST

The veteran running back should be returning after sustaining a plethora of injuries. Coming off of the bye week, Sanders should be fully healthy for this great matchup. 

Although Sanders has had a disappointing season so far, he has dominated the RB usage when healthy. If he receives 15+ carries and five or more targets, he should have a great day. This Texans team is allowing the sixth most rushing yards and second most rushing touchdowns to the position per game. Sanders could be in line for a big day as he tries to carry this team to their first win of the season. 

Josh Palmer (WR, LAC)

Chargers vs. Bears, Sunday 6:20 PM PST

The kid out of Brampton, Ontario is having a very strong season. After being praised by the coaching staff for taking a step forward this season, he has put it on display in Mike Williams’ absence.

He has 60+ yards in each of his last four games but has only managed one touchdown. The Bears have been middle of the pack at defending the WR position, averaging 178 yards and one touchdown per game to the position. 

Although I usually look for matchups and then talent for the Pie Shop, this call is a little different. Palmer has the talent to be a very serviceable WR in the NFL and is due for a touchdown. We know Justin Herbert will be slinging it this week, putting the young WR in a great situation to open the Pie Shop.

Thank you for reading my work. Check out my four favorite player prop selections later this week!

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