The Fantasy Football Pie Shop, Week 6 (2023)

October 11, 2023

The term “Pie Shop” is an Australian term used to determine whether or not a player will score a touchdown. Ellis applies this to the NFL and predicts six players who will find the end zone in Week 6.

The Pie Shop is back in business baby. That’s right, after switching up the format, we hit two of our six calls. Even better, these calls were distributed well going 1-1 on locks, 1-1 on solid picks, and 0-2 on our long shots.

For those of you who are new, welcome to the Pie Shop. I came across the term “Pie Shop” while following Rugby in Australia. They used this iconic term to determine whether or not they believed a player would score a Try (or in this case, touchdown). If a player was predicted to score, the Pie Shop was declared “open” for that week.

This week, we are sticking with this new format. Instead of providing six selections that are uncommon touchdown calls, I will be dividing them into three sections. I will have, two picks I view to be locks (most likely superstars), two picks that I have decent confidence in (Promising Picks), and two deeper picks (Taking Shots). I will then keep track of my success rate within each section. My name is Ellis Johnson and this is your Week Six Pie Shop.

Pie Shop Locks (1-1)

Ja’Marr Chase (WR, CIN)

Seahawks @ Bengals, Sunday 10:00 AM PST

Welcome back, Ja’Marr Chase. For anyone who forgot that he is one of the best receivers in the league, he certainly reminded everyone last week. Exploding for an organization-record 15 catches for 192 yards and three scores. Plus, if you watched the game, he was inches from adding another 20-yard TD reception to that total.

This week he faces another NFC West opponent, the Seahawks. Fresh off their bye week, the Seahawks are entering this week allowing the most touchdowns to the WR position per game (2.7). We finally saw Joe Burrow look more like his old self, and if Tee Higgins misses another week (which I expect he will), Chase will be in line for monstrous volume once again. It’s not often that Pie Shops are open 24/7, but Chase’s certainly is.

Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)

Cardinals @ Rams, Sunday 2:25 PM PST

From one of the league’s stars to another, Kupp is back. After his hamstring injury took him out for most of August and the first four weeks, we saw vintage Kupp return.

Matthew Stafford and Kupp are the same person on the football field. Yes, Puka Nacua is still a factor in this offense, but it’s clear Kupp is the top target. On the first drive alone, Kupp had six targets and finished with eight receptions for 118 yards.

He faces a Cardinals team that has managed to limit his success in the past, holding him to one receiving touchdown in his last three games against them. However, we just saw Chase go for 192 and three on them, so I’m sure Kupp will make up for lost time. 

Raheem Mostert (RB, MIA)

Panthers @ Dolphins, Sunday 10:00 AM PST

Usually, I only select two "locks" for the Pie Shop, however, I couldn't decide which of these three to remove. As a result, we have an extra Pie Shop call this week.

It's not often you see Raheem Mostert's name alongside Cooper Kupp and Ja'Marr Chase. But when it comes to the Pie Shop, he is more than qualified for this list. Mostert has an incredible eight touchdowns (seven rushing, one receiving) so far this season. This Dolphins team is the definition of high-flying and now faces a 0-5 Panthers team that is unable to stop the run.

If Mike McDaniel wanted every skill position player to score a touchdown this game, I have no doubt that he could make that happen. However, no one is more likely to fall into the endzone than Mostert, who should now see an increased workload with De'Von Achane missing time. Don't overthink this one, Mostert is in the perfect situation to keep his touchdown streak alive.

Promising Picks (1-1)

Mike Evans (WR, TB)

Lions @ Buccaneers, Sunday 2:25 PM PST

Evans has managed to turn back the clock this season. Well, at least he had until he injured his hamstring in Week Four. Even then, Evans is coming off of a bye week and should have had plenty of time to rest up. It’s still unclear if he is fully healthy or not, but he’s looking alright.

Either way, he is facing a Lions team that is allowing 1.7 touchdowns per game to the WR position. Mayfield has quickly made Evans his top red zone target and will need to score points to stick with this red-hot Lions team. I think Evans will open the Pie Shop for the fourth time this season in Week Six. If Evans does not play in this game, I will pivot this pick to Chris Godwin (but I think Evans will be available).

CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)

Cowboys @ Chargers, Monday 5:15 PM PST

Usually, I avoid “big name” players outside of my “Locks”. However, Lamb might have the talent to be a star, but he certainly isn’t producing like one. He has only finished in the top 20 at the position for fantasy once this year and has only scored one touchdown.

This week he has a primetime showdown against one of the best offenses in the league. I’m sure the Cowboys are fired up for another primetime game after getting embarrassed by the 49ers last Sunday. Although the Cowboys' defense is supposed to be solid, the 49ers picked them apart. This team will want to rebound in a game that I’m sure will be one of the highest over-under on the week.

If the Cowboys want to bounce back, they’ll need Lamb to show up (and for Dak Prescott not to throw three interceptions). This Chargers team is allowing the second most touchdowns per game to the WR position, putting CeeDee Lamb in a prime spot to open a Prime Time Pie Shop.

Taking Shots (0-2)

Zay Jones (WR, JAX)

Colts @ Jaguars, Sunday 10:00 AM PST

If you’ve been following this series, you’ll probably realize I love to pick on this Colts secondary. This team is tied with the Chargers for the second most TDs allowed to the WR position each week. Last week, I called for DeAndre Hopkins to find the endzone against the Colts. Although he didn’t score, he still posted eight receptions for 140 yards.

Coming off a big-time win against the Bills and winning both games across the pond, the Jaguars team has been heating up. Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk have taken most of the media attention since Jones has only played two and a half games, recovering from a knee injury. However, in those games, he has five targets in each game and two touchdowns. In the one game without a score, he had two endzone targets where he couldn’t get his feet in bounds.

I am unsure what his status will be this week, however, if he plays I will stick with this call. If he doesn’t, I would pivot to Ridley (although I understand that is not as deep a selection).

Alexander Mattison (RB, MIN)

Vikings @ Bears, Sunday 10:00 AM PST

After the team traded for Cam Akers, Mattison’s role was very up in the air. Three games into his arrival, it is clear Mattison is the lead guy with Akers taking limited touches. Since the trade, Mattison has also looked a lot better, topping 90 rushing yards in two of three games and a score in the other.

He now faces a Bears defense that is tied for the most receiving TDs and fifth most rushing TDs to the position. Plus, if Justin Jefferson misses time, his passing volume could increase. I’ve called Mattison a few times now for the Pie Shop, hitting once and missing the other. Although I don’t love calling for the same player, this matchup and offense sets up perfectly to take another shot. Mattison is my last Pie Shop call for this week, in a bottom of the NFC North showdown.

Thank you for reading my work. Check out my four favorite prop player prop selections each week as well!

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