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Fantasy baseball playoffs are here. Ben Ueberroth (@UeberMD) evaluates available starting pitchers who can benefit managers down the stretch.
Playoffs! Congratulations to those managers who made the fantasy baseball playoffs. If you are reading this, that is most likely the case. The fantasy season is a (fun) grind, but now is the time to buckle down and push for a league championship. While there may be less competition on the waiver wire with many managers in the consolation bracket, competitive managers with adds limits need to be especially savvy about who they pick up.
At this point in the year, matchups are more important than ever. Some pitchers like Bryan Woo may have found themselves on this list. But they face teams with a relatively strong wOBA down the stretch and thus carry more risk than potential benefit. Other arms like Mason Miller, John Means, and Taj Bradley carry significant skill upside but lack clearly defined roles, limiting their value.
Ben Ueberroth (@UeberMD) scours the waiver wire to identify pitchers <50% owned in most leagues who have a balance of skill and plus matchups to finish out the next one to two weeks of the fantasy baseball season. Managers should follow projected starting pitcher listings closely, as matchups this time of year are subject to change more than ever. The names below can be difference-makers in the semifinal and championship fantasy baseball playoff matchups.
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Gavin Williams - Cleveland Guardians
BALLER MOVE: Add in 10+ Team Leagues
ROSTERED IN: 40% of Leagues
ANALYSIS: After a brief scare with a knee injury, Gavin Williams bounced back in his last outing, firing five innings of one-run ball with four strikeouts against a respectable Twins lineup that holds a .328 wOBA against right-handed pitchers. For managers in points leagues, Williams is a must-add since he lines up as a potential two-start pitcher next week against the San Francisco Giants and Texas Rangers.
The Giants matchup is a juicy one for all formats as they are holding a below-average .308 wOBA against righties this year. Managers relying on their ratios to take them to the promised land should take a second look before the Rangers matchup. They have also been on a skid lately and do not pack the punch they did for most of the summer months. Assuming he makes both starts as planned, those with lineups set weekly will be hard-pressed to find a stronger two-start pitcher that is still available.
The only knock on Williams continues to be some control issues, showing a 10.5 BB%. He did issue four free passes in his most recent outing. However, he also shows a solid 24.4 K% and 4.00 FIP, which is better than most of what is available on the waiver wire these days. His 96 mph four-seam fastball and 86 mph slider are both plus pitches. If managers can reap the benefits of two starts in one week, Williams may be a big difference-maker down the stretch.
Ryan Pepiot - Los Angeles Dodgers
BALLER MOVE: Add in 10+ Team Leagues
ROSTERED IN: 20% of Leagues
ANALYSIS: Ryan Pepiot deserves to be the top name on this list. If your crystal ball shows him to be a starter for the Dodgers through the remainder of the fantasy season, then he is the top pitcher to target on the waiver wire. Without Julio Urias, Pepiot seems lined up for a starting gig to finish the year; however, the Dodgers have had a bit of a carousel for their fifth (or sixth) starting spot this year. Names like Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone remain in the ether and could poach a start here and there.
However, in the absence of clarity, Pepiot is worth an add. He too lines up as a two-start pitcher next week, lining up against the Padres and Mariners. The Padres just have not put it together despite the frightening names throughout their lineup, holding a below-average .313 wOBA against righties like Pepiot.
This is only going to get worse with injuries to Jake Cronenworth and Gary Sanchez. The Mariners are slightly better and admittedly are surging, but still are just slightly above average against righties with a .323 wOBA.
Noting the very limited sample size, Pepiot has pitched admirably so far, boasting a 3.05 FIP across his three appearances this year as a starter and reliever. He holds a great 26.4 K%, which is even more impressive when coupled with a 3.8 BB% and 31.1 CSW%. And when batters do make contact, it has been quite weak as evidenced by a minuscule 22.9 hard-hit %. Pepiot is showing under-the-hood skills backed by a strong Dodgers lineup to be a major contributor for fantasy managers.
Kutter Crawford - Boston Red Sox
BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ Team Leagues
ROSTERED IN: 20% of Leagues
ANALYSIS: Kutter Crawford's value depends on exactly how the Red Sox manage their rotation in September. Nick Pivetta has been a spot-starter mixed with long-relief roles. Most recently he logged a start, while it is unclear exactly how long Tanner Houck will stick in the rotation.
If the Red Sox proceed with a five-man rotation, Crawford lines up for a two-start week against the Yankees on September 11 and the Blue Jays on September 16. A two-start week would boost Crawford's value significantly given the limited options on the waiver wire.
Although they have shown some signs of life recently, the Yankees hold an abysmal .299 wOBA against righties. The Blue Jays are better, tied for middle-of-the-pack with a few teams with a .323 wOBA against righties. Crawford is likely to find himself on most two-start pitcher lists coming into next week based on these matchups.
Under the hood, Crawford shows an above-average 24.1 K%, solid 6.8 BB%, and reassuring 35.1 hard-hit%. He can give up some runs as evidenced by a 4.18 FIP. Managers leaning on ratios may want to take a second look, especially before the Blue Jays matchup. Outside of that, Crawford holds significant upside going into what is championship week for many leagues. That sweeper of his can move!
Ranger Suarez - Philadelphia Phillies
BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ Team Leagues
ROSTERED IN: 25% of Leagues
ANALYSIS: Ranger Suarez by himself is unlikely to propel a team to a championship, but he can be a very effective cog in a larger machine. After a short stint on the injured list for a hamstring strain, Suarez returned to the Phillies rotation against Milwaukee, posting five strikeouts across 4.0 IP and surrendering two earned runs. That is a fairly representative outing for Suarez -- he is unlikely to give managers an eight-inning, double-digit strikeout outing but holds a decent 21.5 K% and 4.07 FIP.
For managers in search of wins, in particular, Suarez deserves significant consideration. He is pitching for a competitive Phillies squad ranked sixth in wOBA across the MLB. The Phillies have yet to lock up a Wild Card spot and are fighting to win every game. Suarez is scheduled to line up against the Marlins this coming weekend in Philadelphia, with the fish boasting an average .325 wOBA against lefties on the road. He will face a similarly average Cardinals squad in his subsequent start.
Target Suarez for his win upside, low likelihood of a damaging blow-up, and average matchups to finish the fantasy season.
Griffin Canning - Los Angeles Angels
BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ Team Leagues
ROSTERED IN: 35% of Leagues
ANALYSIS: Managers in search of wins specifically should refer to the entries above. The Angels are not competing in 2023, and that is further compounded by a Shohei Ohtani injury limiting him at DH. Sans wins, Griffin Canning has some strong peripheral stats and therefore upside for other categories, especially strikeouts.
Canning boasts a 26.8 K%. In considering true starting pitchers with a decent sample size, only Kenta Maeda has a slightly higher K% for pitchers considered for this list. Canning backs this number up with a strong 30.6 CSW% and solid 6.4 BB%. He is locating his pitches well and that is leading to strikeouts and damage control with few walks.
Canning lines up to face the Guardians on Friday, who hold a bottom-third .308 wOBA against righties. He will then likely have one more start in the fantasy season next week against the Mariners. As mentioned above, the Mariners hold a .323 wOBA, which puts them in a tie for 12th in the MLB against righties. This number is slightly lower at .318 against righties at home specifically. Target Canning for strikeouts specifically.
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