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Who should I draft for 2023 fantasy football with my 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th round picks? Ellis' round-by-round draft targets and draft sleepers.
Fantasy football draft season is heating up as we enter the final two months of the offseason. Whether you're participating in best ball drafts or starting a redraft league, the objective is to win a championship. Over the past few months, active engagement in best ball drafts on Underdog has led to the discovery of players in every round who have caught my attention. These players are known as "Ellis' Essential Players by Round."
This article aims to analyze the top pick from each round based on Underdog's average draft position (ADP). A player has been chosen from each of the first seven rounds, and a fantasy football sleeper pick in Round 15 has been included to complete a full fantasy starting roster. The roster comprises one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, and one flex.
Stay tuned throughout the offseason for upcoming articles featuring comprehensive fantasy football rankings and individual player insights for the 2023 season. You can find me here on RotoBaller and TikTok @FiresideFantasy_FF.
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Round 1 - Who To Draft?
Ja'Marr Chase (WR, Cincinnati Bengals) - ADP 2.1
You don't need anyone to tell you how great Ja’Marr Chase is. There's a reason you need a top-two pick in most drafts to secure him. So why is he placed here? The reason is to emphasize that you should be using the number one draft pick on Chase. Justin Jefferson is incredible, and this is not solely based on the fact that the last player to achieve back-to-back WR1 finishes was Antonio Brown in 2014 and 2015.
What truly captures attention is the team situation and touchdown potential. Justin Jefferson had his career-high in touchdowns in 2021 (10) despite leading the league in total targets, receptions, and red zone targets last season. On the other hand, Chase has never scored fewer than nine touchdowns in his two-year career, even after missing five games last season.
In 2022, Jefferson led WRs with a total of 26 red zone targets, while Chase, despite missing time, still ranked third with 23 targets. Furthermore, Chase averaged the same number of red zone targets per game as Cooper Kupp did in his 2021 season (2.2). Whether it's the result of the receiver or the quarterback, Chase is more likely to have a season with 16 or more touchdowns, making him the top choice in fantasy.
Round 2 - Who To Draft?
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, Detroit Lions) - ADP 13.9
Amon-Ra St. Brown's availability may be limited if Chase is selected in the first round, but St. Brown deserves more respect. The decision for this pick came down to him and Garrett Wilson. St. Brown was ultimately chosen because Wilson already receives enough media hype. His performance is truly impressive. Not only does he play with a tremendous chip on his shoulder, remembering every receiver taken before him, but he also has the skills to excel on the field.
The circumstances couldn't be better for this young star. He finds himself on a team that ranked sixth in pass attempts last season. With Jameson Williams beginning the year suspended, St. Brown's only competition for targets will be rookie TE Sam LaPorta, Marvin Jones Jr., and Josh Reynolds. If he had the same situation but with the name A.J. Brown or Cooper Kupp, he would likely be considered a contender for the top draft pick.
This isn’t suggesting that St. Brown has already reached the talent level of A.J. Brown or Kupp, but he is certainly on the path to becoming a fantasy superstar. As a result, you're presented with a perfect fantasy scenario: a talented player (sometimes) falling into the second round. If you can pair St. Brown with Wilson in the latter part of the first round, you might end up with two top-five wide receivers by the end of the season.
Round 3 - Who To Draft?
Lamar Jackson (QB, Baltimore Ravens) - ADP 34.9
This one is easy, and you can typically wait until the fourth round to select him. Lamar Jackson possesses all the qualities you desire in a quarterback for an explosive season. Not only is he now surrounded by three NFL-drafted first-round receivers, but Jackson is also teamed up with offensive coordinator Todd Monken.
For those unaware, Monken served as the offensive coordinator for the Buccaneers team that led the league in passing yards and attempts. Any increase in volume is icing on the cake. In his 2019 MVP season, Jackson only threw for 3,100 yards. That was with Seth Roberts and Willie Snead as his two options behind Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown.
In his last two seasons, games in which Jackson has thrown for over 200 yards have resulted in an average of 24.5 fantasy points. For comparison, that was the same as Patrick Mahomes last year. Regardless of people's opinions, Jackson will still run. When you add efficient passing volume to the equation, he easily becomes a top fantasy quarterback choice this season.
Round 4 - Who To Draft?
Keenan Allen (WR, Los Angeles Chargers) - ADP 42.1
Keenan Allen has established himself as one of the premier receivers in the league over the past six years. His precise route running and strong rapport with his quarterbacks ensure consistent production year after year. During his time with the Chargers, he has led all receivers in targets in five of the last six years. The only exception was last season when he missed seven games.
While the team has added first-round talent Quentin Johnston to the wide receiver position, it is Mike Williams who is likely to be most affected in terms of production. Nonetheless, this offense is poised to become explosive and capable of supporting three receivers along with RB Austin Ekeler. Additionally, during the offseason, the team brought in Kellen Moore, former offensive coordinator of the Dallas Cowboys.
Over the past two years, the Cowboys ranked among the top four teams in points per game. Last season, Justin Herbert posted a career-low of 25 touchdowns and 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Both of these numbers are expected to see significant increases, benefiting all the receivers. It wouldn't be surprising if Allen finishes as a high-end WR2 and consistently delivers impressive fantasy numbers each week.
Round 5 - Who To Draft?
Aaron Jones (RB, Green Bay Packers) - ADP 54.2
Aaron Jones is a true star. Not only has he been nominated for the Walter Payton Man of the Year award over the last four seasons, but only four running backs have scored more fantasy points than him. This places him ahead of notable backs like Nick Chubb and Ezekiel Elliott. However, despite being just 21 fantasy points behind Alvin Kamara during that period, his name doesn't seem to carry the same level of recognition.
In the past four seasons, Jones has consistently ranked among the top 12 running backs and has recorded 60 or more targets each year. He has now assumed a leadership role in this Green Bay offense, being the only starting skill player over the age of 25.
Although the youthful composition of the team may hurt the offense, Jones has proven that he is not solely reliant on scoring touchdowns. Even with only two rushing touchdowns last year, he managed to finish as the RB9. With the offense expected to perform well, Jones should find fantasy success once again and finish as an RB1.
Round 6 - Who To Draft?
Miles Sanders (RB, Carolina Panthers) - ADP 63.1
Even though Miles Sanders fell just short of being a top-12 RB by less than three fantasy points last season, he continues to be undervalued. Much has changed since last year, especially as he transitions from one of the best offenses to more of a wild card situation. However, what we do know about his new situation in Carolina is that D'Onta Foreman averaged 120 rushing yards per game in contests where he had 20 or more rushing attempts.
Given Sanders' relatively lucrative offseason deal with the Panthers and the discussions surrounding him being one of the few workhorse backs in 2023, it's reasonable to expect him to approach 20 carries quite often. Additionally, head coach Frank Reich has expressed confidence in Sanders' pass protection skills, indicating that he will see playing time in third-down situations.
Considering the anticipated high volume of touches he'll receive, his current RB17 ADP represents great value. The main question mark lies in how frequently Sanders will reach the end zone. Nevertheless, with his expected usage, he should be a reliable RB2 option every week.
Round 7 - Who To Draft?
D'Andre Swift (RB, Philadelphia Eagles) - ADP 77.8
It seems to be an uncommon opinion, but D’Andre Swift has the potential to finish as an RB1. Following a tumultuous split from the Lions, it's safe to say there were some underlying issues. In a classic case of misfit acquisitions, the Eagles traded a fourth-round pick for Swift, who only has one year remaining on his contract.
The strongest argument for believing in Swift is that he managed to finish as a top-24 option last season despite having just 138 touches. To put it into perspective, Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott combined for 135 touches as backups behind Miles Sanders. Even if Rashaad Penny becomes the primary between-the-tackles runner, Swift should still be able to produce fantasy points.
It's unlikely that Penny will demand the same workload as Sanders did. Both Penny and Swift have shown moments of brilliance alongside injury concerns, which makes this offense more potent than before. It's worth noting that Swift's involvement in the passing game may diminish with Jalen Hurts as the QB. Nonetheless, the Eagles' offensive line is arguably the best in the league, and Swift has always been an efficient runner.
This is crucial considering the Eagles' historical reliance on a committee approach. We've witnessed running backs shine in their contract years, and Swift couldn't be in a better position to do so. While he may not provide consistent production, drafting him means getting him at his lowest potential (assuming good health). He has the chance to be a top-10 back on one of the league's premier offenses.
Bonus - Round 15 Draft Sleeper Pick
Taysom Hill (TE, New Orleans Saints) - ADP 170.1
On principle, Taysom Hill's presence in fantasy as a tight end despises many because he should be categorized as a running back. However, since he is labeled as a TE, it works in his favor for fantasy purposes. You can't deny the impact he has on fantasy production.
Last season, despite receiving only 13 targets, he finished as the TE5. This was due to his impressive 96 rushing attempts, which resulted in 575 yards and seven touchdowns. Even with the arrival of Derek Carr, we should expect similar usage for Hill. He is truly a wild card player, and the team likes utilizing him in that manner.
In best ball leagues, Hill is being drafted as the TE18, which presents a favorable scenario. The best part is that you don't need to predict which weeks he'll be involved. Selecting him in every league possible is a great strategy. Whether you have a star like Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews, or even a later option like Gerald Everett, Hill still offers the potential to deliver a game-winning advantage on any given week.
Final Fantasy Football Roster
- QB: Lamar Jackson (QB, Baltimore Ravens)
- RB: Aaron Jones (RB, Green Bay Packers)
- RB: Miles Sanders (RB, Carolina Panthers)
- WR: Ja’Marr Chase (WR, Cincinnati Bengals)
- WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, Detroit Lions)
- WR: Keenan Allen (WR, Los Angeles Chargers)
- Flex: D’Andre Swift (RB, Philadelphia Eagles)
- TE: Taysom Hill (TE, New Orleans Saints)
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