Mitch Garver: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball

Is Mitch Garver a fantasy baseball sleeper, bust, or neither? Is he a flash in the pan or will he thrive? Rick Lucks's deep dive into Garver's 2023 fantasy value.

Welcome back for another exciting fantasy baseball season! For anyone unfamiliar, this weekly column takes a deep dive into a single player, using all of the tools at our disposal to determine his fantasy viability. We focus on waiver wire guys you could likely add, but occasionally explore more established names as trade possibilities.

The opening weekend is in the books, and lots of unexpected names have already spiked multi-HR games. Trayce Thomson! Joey Gallo! Adam Duvall! Most players who start on fire end up falling back to Earth, but there is one name worth a closer look: Mitch Garver.

Garver became a household name in fantasy circles after popping 31 HR in 2019, but never got on track during the COVID 2020 season and was limited by injury the last two seasons. That doesn't mean you should sleep on his potential, especially in two-catcher formats. Let's take a closer look.

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Mitch Garver Deserves a Mulligan for 2022

Garver didn't hit much last year, posting a .207/.298/.404 slash line with 10 HR in 215 PAs before a right flexor strain forced him to undergo season-ending surgery. Both Garver and then-Texas manager Chris Woodward acknowledged that the injury limited him before surgery, making 2021 just as important for evaluating his fantasy prospects as 2022.

Garver was great when available in 2021, slashing .256/.358/.517 with 13 HR in 243 PAs. Garver battled injuries in 2021 as well, dealing with persistent shoulder and knee injuries with IL stints for his back and groin. However, they didn't seem to affect him on the field.

Comparing Garver's contact quality metrics between the two seasons should illustrate the difference. In 2021, Garver had a top-notch average airborne exit velocity of 98 mph with a 17.4% rate of Brls/BBE. Last season, those numbers fell to 91.8 mph and 8.8% Brls/BBE.

Lest you think the 32-year-old lost something, his max exit velocity was virtually unchanged (111.4 mph last year, 111.8 in '21). That suggests that healthy Garver was hitting the ball as hard as ever, but the flexor strain robbed him of his consistency.

Some fluky aspects of Garver's 2022 campaign appear ripe for positive regression. His LD% cratered from 23.2 in 2021 to 16.8 last year, likely explaining why his BABIP fell from .320 to .228. LD% isn't a predictive stat and Garver's career rate is 18.8, so splitting the difference seems reasonable. That should add a few points to his average.

Mitch Garver Has Impressive Pop

The contact quality metrics above prove that Garver hits the ball hard, but he also excels at elevating batted balls. Last year, a whopping 48.9% of his batted balls were classified as flies. His FB% was a little lower in 2021 at 45.7, but he still hit a ton of fly balls. With an IFFB% consistently hovering around 11%, Garver's fly balls hurt his BABIP and batting average potential.

However, his heavy flyball slant also allows Garver to take full advantage of his power. His HR/FB exceeded 20% in both 2019 and 2021 and was a solid 14.9% last season even when everything else was going wrong. Part of that is Garver's ability to pull a lot of his flies, including 43.3% last season and 31.7% in 2021. For reference, the league average is 22.4%.

A decent HR/FB and extreme FB% profile produces reliable power numbers in fantasy. Just ask Rhys Hoskins. If Garver can combine that with the contact quality he demonstrated in 2021, a 30-HR season would definitely be possible. His huge day on April Fool's Day didn't hurt.

2 HR/6 RBI day for Mitch Garver 😱 @Rangers pic.twitter.com/RjoQNaSB4X

— B/R Walk-Off (@BRWalkoff) April 1, 2023

Mitch Garver Is Well-Positioned to Take Advantage of Rule Changes

Garver is also the type of guy infield shifts were invented for, posting an 83 Pull% on grounders against an Oppo% of 2.1 last year. His 2021 season told the same story: 74.4 Pull% on grounders, 4.7 Oppo%. Garver was shifted against nearly every time at bat in recent seasons, but this year's shift restrictions should help him hit more singles.

While many dead-pull hitters won't realize the batting average gains you might expect from shift restrictions due to terrible plate discipline, Garver doesn't have that problem. He possesses an excellent eye, posting a 10.7 BB% last season backed by a 27.1% chase rate. Furthermore, his 9.4 SwStr% was better than the league average and contributed to a reasonable 24.7 K%.

Going back to 2021, Garver walked at a 12.8% clip with a 24.2% chase rate. His 29.2 K% looked problematic on the surface, but his underlying 10.9 SwStr% suggested he didn't deserve so many Ks. Garver only swings at about 40% of the pitches he sees, so his K% will always be slightly higher than his raw peripherals suggest. Still, he is not Joey Gallo by any stretch of the imagination.

Mitch Garver Has a Favorable Team Context

All fantasy managers know that catchers stink, so anybody that can do anything offensively while qualifying at catcher is valuable. Garver played a full MLB game at catcher for the first time since his surgery on April 2, suggesting he's finally healthy enough to catch. The Rangers believe he's ready to catch too as evidenced by Garver and Jonah Heim being the only catchers on their roster.

With 14 appearances at catcher last season, Garver may not be eligible at catcher in your league yet. However, his role as the primary backup means that he should gain eligibility promptly. Moreover, the Rangers appear willing to use Garver as DH when he's not catching, potentially giving him more PAs than other full-time catchers.

Garver is currently listed as the short side of a platoon with Brad Miller on Roster Resource, but Miller is a 10-year veteran with one season over 1.5 fWAR on his resume. He's hardly an insurmountable obstacle to playing time if Garver heats up.

Most importantly, the Texas lineup looks stronger than many people realized. Fantasy managers want some exposure to it, and Garver is an affordable way to buy in.

The Verdict on Mitch Garver

Garver wasn't good in 2022, but his injury provides a plausible reason why. He has a history of hitting the ball hard, should benefit from the rule changes, and could record more PAs than other catchers as a fairly regular DH for his club. He's only rostered in 9% of Yahoo! leagues, and that's way too low considering what he's capable of. Mitch Garver is a Champ.

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