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Ellis' betting breakdown of the 49ers vs. Eagles NFC Championship matchup this Sunday (1/29).
And then there were four. All four of these teams have been atop the league all season. It all starts with the 49ers vs. Eagles kicking off Conference Championship weekend on Sunday.
In the first game this weekend, we have two teams that haven't wavered all season. Led by the breakouts of Brock Purdy and Jalen Hurts, these teams have stacked wins all year. On the other side of the ball, we have the 49ers' defense, which is often awarded the praise of best in the league, while this Eagles team led the league in both sacks and interceptions.
With storylines aplenty, this is going to be one exciting weekend of football. My name is Ellis Johnson, and this is your NFC Championship betting preview. If articles aren't your jam, check out my TikTok previews @FiresideFantasy_FF.
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49ers vs. Eagles - 3:00 PM ET
On the NFC side of this bracket, we have two teams that haven’t been phased yet this postseason. Despite the doubt of Brock Purdy, the 49ers have strung together two of the most dominant wins of this playoffs and have no sign of slowing down. Speaking of slowing down, there was a belief that this Eagles team had started to lose momentum going into last week. Turns out they were only warming up and ended up dominating a surging Giants team. This week, the 49ers head into Philly where the crowd was going wild last week. The current line has the Eagles favorited by 2.5 points and an over-under of 46.
49ers Overview
Offense
As a Trey Lance truther, this run has stirred up a lot of mixed feelings. Two thoughts have been circulating in my head for the better part of the season. The first is if this is what Purdy can do, imagine Trey Lance in this offense. The second is if this is what Purdy can do, how is he not the starter next year? It’s a very confusing time. Anyways, we have all offseason to discuss that and I’m here to break down this current team.
Purdy has been amazing. There is no point waiting for the shoe to drop as there doesn’t appear to be a shoe. Purdy is the real deal. In his two playoff games, he has 37 completions for 546 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions. The interceptions are key here, as this defense is too strong to lose a clean game at the QB position. However, this week he faces an Eagles team that led the league in interceptions. These ballhawks just picked off Daniel Jones for only the sixth time this season and will look to do the same against the conservative play of Purdy.
This 49ers line is highlighted by the best in the game in Trent Williams and averaged the sixth-fewest sacks per game on the season. They also led the team to average the seventh-most rushing yards per game. As for the weapons on this team, I don’t know where to start. Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle have been playing their best football over the last two months. On that note, McCaffrey is supposed to be good to go for this weekend after suffering an ankle contusion. Pair these weapons with the consistency of Brandon Aiyuk and the electric big-play ability of Deebo Samuel and you have yourself one of the most complete sets of weapons in the league.
Defense
The final piece of this matchup is the defense. They held opposing teams to the second-fewest rushing yards per game (79). For perspective, the Titans were first (76 yards per game), and third was the Texans (89 yards per game). This defense also allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards to the QB position and the ninth-fewest passing touchdowns per game and have three interceptions over their two playoff games.
This team is like clockwork. With outstanding coaching, the ability to win in the trenches, and the most explosive playmakers in the game, only one thing stands out to me; can this Eagles team force Purdy to make mistakes and create turnovers?
Eagles Overview
Offense
On the offensive side of the ball, you can make a strong case that if Jalen Hurts did not get injured, he would be this year's MVP. That’s how good this young QB was playing. Highlighted by his 13 rushing touchdowns and 760 rushing yards, people often forget that despite missing two games, he was also 10th in passing yards. I believe this is the best dual-threat QB performance since Lamar Jackson’s MVP 2019 season.
So what changed from last year? Well a lot, but particularly one of the most physically dominant WRs in the league joined the team. The addition of A.J. Brown to this team did wonders. Not only did he set a franchise record for receiving yards, but he also was tied for the second-most receiving TDs at the position. On the other side of the field, DeVonta Smith proved to be the perfect Slim Robin to Swol Batman. Smith finished with 95 receptions, 1100 yards, and seven touchdowns of his own. Add Dallas Goedert to the mix, and you have a complete trio on the offensive side as well.
It seems like this Eagles team was just handing out career seasons. Along with the players above, Miles Sanders also had an outstanding season, averaging 4.9 yards per carry, and rushing for nearly 1300 yards and 11 touchdowns. Unfortunately, he’ll have to take a backseat as this 49ers team is incredible against running backs. After all, they just held Ezekiel Elliott to well under three yards per carry.
The only weak point of this 49ers defense is against the receiver position. Assuming Nick Bosa doesn’t get to the QB first, you can beat this team through the air. The 49ers allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to the WR position on the season, meaning A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith will need to bring their best this weekend.
Defense
For as flashy an offense as this team has, the defense has been able to make play after play. While the rest of the league has focused on the Bengals’ WR trio, Philly has their own deadly three on defense. James Bradbury, Darius Slay, and C.J. Gardner Johnson combined for 12 interceptions this season and held QBs to the third-fewest passing yards allowed. With Purdy only having four interceptions in his 10 games, a pick could go a long way for this Eagles team. It’s not just their secondary either, this team led the league in sacks with 70 on the season, and allowed the 10th-fewest rushing yards to the RB position.
Ellis’ Betting Picks (SF vs. PHI)
Eagles -2.5, Under 46.5
This game is awesome. Both of these teams have been excellent all season and are strong in each phase of the game. The 2.5-point spread is perfect as the home field is the only clear advantage in this game.
I think this game is going to come down to the same metric that scared me off the Bills and Cowboys last weekend. If Brock Purdy can continue to be turnover-free, it’ll be hard for this 49ers team to lose. However, this Eagles team has been able to intercept nearly every QB they’ve faced this season. On the other side, this Eagles team was graded to have the best offensive line all season. If they can hold up and give Hurts enough time to find his WRs, they should be able to move the ball with relative ease. For these reasons, I am leaning toward the Eagles and I think they end Purdy’s turnover-free streak.
As for the over-under, even with all their offensive weapons, I think the 49ers will want to keep this game low scoring. The Eagles, on the other hand, will want to find a way to rely on their offense and big plays from their defense. In the end, I have faith in the 49ers' game plan to slow down this dynamic offense enough to keep it low scoring and tight.
Player Prop Parlays (SF vs. PHI)
Brock Purdy Over 0.5 interceptions
Over 1.5 Field Goals
Christian McCaffrey Over 4.5 receptions
+550
Jalen Hurts Over 200 passing yards
A.J. Brown Over 4.5 receptions
A.J. Brown Over 70.5 yards
Miles Sanders Under 55.5 rushing yards
+350
Thanks for checking out my work. Catch me here for my AFC Conference Championship preview.!
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