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And then there were four. We've reached the semi-finals stage of the 2022 World Cup and the quarter-finals certainly didn't lack in drama, excitement, and shocks. Croatia got the quarter-finals off to a stunning start, knocking out tournament favorite Brazil on penalties.
Argentina then needed penalties themselves after blowing a 2-0 lead late on against the Netherlands. Morocco produced yet another surprise, beating Portugal 1-0 to become the first-ever African nation to reach a World Cup semi-final. And things were rounded off by France scraping past England 2-1 in a controversial and enthralling game.
Like we did for the previous rounds, we'll be putting a total of 25 units across these fixtures and playing the ones that I believe offer us the best value. Just remember that unless specified, all bets are for 90 minutes and do not include extra time or a penalty shootout. We bagged a profit for our second-round and quarter-final bets, so let's hope we can carry that into the final games of the tournament.
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Tuesday, December 13th, 2022
Argentina vs. Croatia, 2:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Argentina 1 - 1 Croatia (Argentina 2 - 1 Croatia after extra time)
Argentina had arguably their best performance of the tournament in winning their quarter-final clash with the Netherlands, and for 80 minutes of that tie, they were by far the better team. They failed to withstand a late Dutch aerial onslaught and had to endure extra time and then a penalty shootout. They dominated extra-time but needed goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez to save the first two spot kicks in the shootout before Argentina was able to see it through to reach their second semi-final in the last three World Cups.
Croatia will be playing in their third World Cup semi-final since debuting at the tournament in 1998 and have now reached the final four in back-to-back World Cups. Somewhat remarkably, Croatia has only won only one game in Qatar, a 4-1 victory over Canada. Five of the nine goals in Croatia's games were scored in that one match with the other four games producing a total of four goals. They showed their resoluteness in holding off Brazil and finding an equalizer late in extra time to take the tie to penalties.
Argentina has never lost a World Cup semi-final but has needed extra time in two of the three one-off semi-final ties. Four years ago, Croatia needed penalties to progress through the second round and quarter-final before an extra-time win in the semi-finals. This year, they've needed penalties in the second-round and quarter-final ties so a sixth successive draw in regulation time in World Cup knockout ties seems more than likely.
Betting picks
Moneyline - Draw (+250 Caesars) 2 units
Croatia apparently loves extra time, with their last five knockout games at World Cups going the distance. Argentina's semi-final history also tells us we're in for a close game so another 30 minutes to decide a winner seems like a good play.
Total cards - Both teams over 1.5 cards (+150 PointsBet) 3 units
Argentina's quarter-final tie with the Netherlands was firey, to say the least, with 19 yellow cards and one red card brandished which included subs, coaches, and the manager with more cards being shown after the penalty shootout ended. Croatia has been shown two yellow cards in each of their knockout ties and I'm expecting a tight and edgy affair that should lend itself to some bookings being handed out.
Team to score the first goal - Argentina (-160 PointsBet) 7 units
Croatia has yet to score the first goal in a game at the World Cup and their semi-final victory four years ago saw them go behind against England before coming back to win in extra time. Argentina has scored the opening goal in all five of their games at Qatar.
Come from behind and draw - Croatia (+700 Caesars) 1 unit
If Argentina does indeed score the opener but we end up going to extra time, we can maximize the picks with a little action on the higher odds play. If you only play small amounts for higher odds, this represents the best option.
Players to watch
If it wasn't for a missed penalty against Poland, Lionel Messi would be on course to score in every round of the World Cup. He was once again the catalyst for Argentina in their win against the Netherlands and you feel that for Argentina to go on and win the tournament, Messi will need to be at his best for the final two games.
Marcelo Brozović hasn't garnered the same amount of attention as his midfield partners Luka Modrić and Mateo Kovačić, but he's done a bit of everything in the middle of the park. Among his teammates, Brozović ranks fourth in shots, first in attempted and completed passes, fourth in shot-creating actions, second in tackles, and first in blocks. If he can help to keep Messi quiet, Croatia will be well on their way to making their second consecutive World Cup final.
Today's World Cup Sportsbook Odds - Semi-Finals
- DraftKings Sportsbook World Cup Odds - Bet Now on DraftKings!
- France/Morocco to draw +295
- Morocco to win +650
- BetMGM Sportsbook World Cup Odds - Bet Now on BetMGM!
- France to win -182
- PointsBet Sportsbook World Cup Odds - Bet Now on PointsBet!
- Argentina to win -120
- Caesars Sportsbook World Cup Odds - Bet Now on Caesars
- Argentina/Croatia to draw +250
- Croatia to win +450
- FanDuel Sportsbook World Cup Odds - Bet Now on FanDuel!
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Wednesday, December 14th, 2022
France vs. Morocco, 2:00 pm ET
Score prediction: France 3 - 1 Morocco
France edged out England on Saturday in a game decided by fine margins and some favorable refereeing decisions. On the plus side for France, England needed a penalty kick to get on the scoresheet, the same as Poland in the second round. They are yet to keep a clean sheet at the tournament, yielding one goal in all five of their games, and defenders Dayot Upamecano and Theo Hernández both looked very shaky against England.
Morocco's fairytale tournament kept on rolling when they beat Portugal 1-0 on Saturday. That made it four European sides ranked in FIFA's top 12 (Belgium #2, Spain #7, Portugal #9, and Croatia #12) that they've faced. Not only have they yet to lose to any of them, but they've also kept a clean sheet in all four games. The only goal they've conceded was an own goal against Canada and they've kept eight clean sheets in their last nine international games.
Morocco's defense at the World Cup has been immense but they are set to be without captain Romain Saïss after he was carried off in their win against Portugal. And France's attack will be the most formidable they have faced so far. They will play in their usual way, defending deep and in numbers, leaving little space for the likes of Antoine Griezmann and Kylian Mbappé to operate and run in.
Morocco's counter-attacking play should cause a questionable French defense some issues so I fancy the African nation to score. But I fear France's attack can't be nullified all game, and at some point, they will find a breakthrough that could lead to more space opening up. The match will be more competitive than the scoreline will suggest but Morocco could end up running out of steam trying to chase the game and France has the players to take advantage of that.
Betting picks
Both teams to score - Yes (+150 PointsBet) 2 units
It's something of a longshot but Morocco poses a threat on the break and France's defense has been their one weak spot. If Morocco can target the left side of the French backline, they could cause the favorites some significant problems.
Morocco second half total goals - Over 0.5 (+210 PointsBet) 3 units
France has conceded a second-half goal in four of their five games so far and unless Morocco can take a surprise lead in the first half, they will likely be more threatening in the second half as they push for a goal themselves.
Single-game parlay - France over 0.5 cards, France over 4.5 corners, Morocco over 0.5 cards, and Morocco under 4.5 corners (-105 PointsBet) 7 units
Morocco went into their quarter-final tie having taken a total of just three corners in their previous four games. They took three against Portugal but conceded nine while France has taken at least six in four of their five games. France picked up three bookings against England and Morocco's counter-attacking style lends itself to teams getting booked to break them up. All five of France's games have seen an opposing player cautioned while Morocco has been shown a yellow card in four of their five games.
Players to watch
I've already mentioned the struggles France had on the left side of their defense with Upamecano and Hernández looking very susceptible against England and Morocco's star forward Hakim Ziyech will be licking his lips at the chance to run at them both on the break. Ziyech has looked dangerous throughout the World Cup and his biggest moment could still be yet to come.
Olivier Giroud scored the winner against England and only teammate Mbappé (five) scored more than Giroud (four) in the tournament. His aerial ability is a common threat and his link-up play in and around the penalty area might be essential as Morocco will look to minimize the space available.
Good luck with those World Cup bets and remember to bet responsibly!
