Oneil Cruz: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

July 26, 2022

Oneil Cruz is among the most physically gifted prospects in recent memory, but he has yet to make his mark in the fantasy game. Is he a lost cause or about to have a monster second half? Rick Lucks's deep dive into Cruz's 2022 fantasy value.

Plenty of top-rated prospects have debuted in recent years, but very few have offered the raw tools of Oneil Cruz. Cruz is the tallest man to ever start an MLB game at shortstop and set a record for hardest infield throw in his first game of the season. Scouts believe he'll stick at short for at least a while, meaning that his 80-grade raw power and plus-plus wheels will be available to fantasy managers at a premium defensive position.

If you claimed Cruz as soon as he was available, you were probably giddy. Sadly, all of Cruz's raw ability hasn't translated to production yet with a .208/.241/.415 line with five homers and four steals over 112 PAs. While technically a pace for 20/20 over a full season, that average and OBP are killers that you probably weren't expecting from MLB Pipeline's 18th-ranked prospect.

Cruz is now rostered in 67% of Yahoo! leagues because he oozes upside, but managers are hesitant to play him since the production hasn't been there. What is a manager to do? Let's see if we can figure it out together.

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The Scouting Report on Oneil Cruz

Scouts are fairly unanimous in loving Cruz. MLB Pipeline reads like a love letter, giving Cruz 50 hit, 65 power, and 55 speed on the 20-80 scouting scale. They have Cruz listed as the second-best prospect in Pittsburgh's system behind Henry Davis.

The FanGraphs scouting report is more interesting because it differentiates between present and future scouting grades. Today, Cruz's hit tool only ranks as a 30 while his game power is 40. Both are projected to improve in the future to 40 and 70, respectively.

His raw power gets the highest possible score at 80 both now and in the future, but his current 60-grade speed is projected to decline to 45 in the future. The net result is pessimistic in the near-term but better down the line, ranking Cruz as Pittsburgh's top prospect and third-best in MLB.

Oneil Cruz Flashes Upside in MiLB

Cruz first made it to Double-A (Altoona) in 2019, slashing a pedestrian .269/.346/.412 with a homer and three steals over 136 PAs. He struck out too much with a 25.7 K% and relied on a .365 BABIP to keep his average at an acceptable level, but his 11 BB% was much better than expected. Notably, there was a ton of swing-and-miss with a 16.2 SwStr%.

Cruz spent the entire 2020 season at the alternate training site and did good work there as he was much better for Altoona in 2021. He hit .292/.346/.536 with 12 HR and 18 SB in 273 PAs, trimming his SwStr% to a much more palatable 12.8% and K% to 23.4.

It cost him a few walks, but his 7.3 BB% was still solid. His BABIP stayed strong at .349 while his 19.7% HR/FB suggested power upside if he could elevate the ball more than 32.8% of the time. Cruz was rewarded with a brief taste of Triple-A (Indianapolis) to close out the season and raked to the tune of .524/.655/.1.286 with five homers and a steal in 29 PAs. Wowza!

Cruz returned to Triple-A to begin the 2022 season and his production fell off dramatically. He hit .232/.336/.422 with nine homers and 11 steals in 247 PAs. The good news is that most of his positive changes from 2021 stuck.

His K% fell to 22.7 (backed by an 11.5 SwStr%) despite facing more advanced competition, while his BB% rebounded to 12.1. His 22% HR/FB also suggested that the raw power was still there, though a 27.3 FB% isn't the best way to access it. The biggest problem was a .270 BABIP that a fast man like Cruz probably didn't deserve.

Cruz paced for 20/20 in both 2021 and 2022 while flashing solid plate discipline and a decent batting average, so it's easy to see why he was on fantasy radars. However, his MiLB career is more impressive than it looks because Altoona and Indianapolis are both pitcher's parks.

From 2017 to 2019, Altoona had a 73 HR factor and 94 hits factor. Indianapolis had a 70 HR factor and 94 hits factor. Both parks saw about 30% fewer homers than other MiLB parks, which is about as extreme as three-year park factors get.

Digging into Oneil Cruz

Cruz's big league struggles can be broken into terrible plate discipline and a low BABIP, and both appear unlikely to be part of his long-term profile. His 36.6 K% and 4.5 BB% are atrocious, but he was substantially better by both metrics in the minors.

Furthermore, his 14 SwStr% at the big league level is bad but not 36.6% K% bad, while the same could be said for his 38.6% chase rate and BB%. Cruz is better than he's shown thus far.

Similarly, you would expect a guy with 30 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed (seventh in MLB) to have a better BABIP. Cruz has an Oppo% of 21.2% on his grounders and is hitting .278 against the shift, so that doesn't seem to be an issue. Baseball Savant says that Cruz deserves an xBA of .221, and this author is adjusting upward for his speed and positive K% regression.

Cruz was a high-efficiency base thief in 2021, going 18-for-21 for an 86% success rate. He hasn't been as successful this season, going 11-for-17 (65%) at Triple-A and 4-for-7 (57%) for the Pirates, but he's fast and scouting reports note that he knows how to steal a base. Pittsburgh isn't in contention, so Cruz should get all of the time he needs to figure it out.

Cruz also improved his FB% to 34.8% at the MLB level, making good use of his 21.7% HR/FB. His .387 xSLG is a little lower than his current mark, but he helps himself with a 21.7 Pull% on fly balls. His big breakout will probably require more flies though.

The Verdict on Oneil Cruz

Cruz generally hits in the bottom half of Pittsburgh's punchless lineup, so his R+RBI opportunities are virtually nonexistent. He doesn't hit enough flies to take advantage of his elite raw power and hasn't been a great base thief at the highest level, looking overmatched at times.

Still, he is not as far away as his season line might look. Cruz could be one adjustment away from unlocking his full potential in the second half.

However, this author hopes he doesn't. If Cruz finishes the season with something resembling his current numbers, the fantasy community will move on to the next shiny object. Cruz will be cheap on Draft Day, and he will win leagues. He's a Champ either way.

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