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Adam Koffler's 7 fantasy football dark-horse league-winners for the 2025 season. Target these seven sleepers with league-winning upside for 2025 fantasy drafts: Ricky Pearsall, Matthew Golden, Emeka Egbuka, Drake Maye, and more.
Writing about early-round players to target is fun, but writing about those "dark-horses" set to smash their average draft position (ADP) is even more fun. Check out my dark-horse overall WR1 contenders and my dark-horse overall RB1 contenders articles.
The best part about these dark horses is that you'll have a real shot to get most of them on your fantasy team. In most cases, it even makes sense to reach for these guys, as they could easily outperform their ADP. Each of the seven players listed below has an ADP outside the top-90 players in 2025.
The guys below might not have overall WR1, QB1, or TE1 upside, but they have league-winning upside considering where they are being drafted. Check out my seven dark-horse league winners for the 2025 fantasy football season.
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Ricky Pearsall, WR, San Francisco 49ers
FantasyPros Consensus ADP - 94.0 (WR42)
A first-round pick just a short year ago, Pearsall enters the 2025 season as the probable WR1 in San Francisco.
Jauan Jennings hasn't practiced since late July with a calf injury, and Brandon Aiyuk is likely out until at least Week 6. That's given Pearsall ample time to develop much-needed chemistry with Brock Purdy.
That chemistry was on full display on just one drive in the 49ers' second preseason game.
Ricky Pearsall
One drive. 3 catches. 42 yards.
Sitting down on the second target - rather than continuing with the same path as the tracking LB - is good stuff pic.twitter.com/qMz3sPssLv
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) August 17, 2025
It's a tiny sample size, but Pearsall saw a 57% target share and had a 6.0 yards per route run on an 88% route participation rate on that drive. That's meaningful considering the circumstances with Jennings and Aiyuk missing valuable time in camp.
It wasn't just the one drive in Week 2 of the preseason. According to 49ers beat writer Matt Maiocco, Pearsall has been the best wideout on the field throughout camp.
The metrics in his rookie season weren't anything to write home about. Per Fantasy Points Data, Pearsall averaged just 1.45 yards per route run with a 12.9% target share and 0.16 targets per route run.
But that doesn't paint the whole picture. The Florida rookie missed time during last year's training camp with a hamstring injury. He was then shot in the chest and forced to miss the preseason and six weeks of the regular season.
Essentially, he was learning on the fly while playing in meaningful NFL games. The chemistry wasn't there, and it was obvious. Instead, Purdy leaned on Jennings with Aiyuk out of commission.
But in the last two games of his rookie season, something finally clicked for Pearsall. He averaged 105 yards and a touchdown on nine targets per game.
Again, small sample size, but in those two games, he had a 30.4% first-read target share and a 2.84 yards per route run. What if that translates to the 2025 season? It very well could.
Instead of Jennings earning Purdy's trust, it's now Pearsall doing so. That matters a lot considering the 49ers have been top-5 in passing yards per game and top-10 in passing first downs per game each of the last two seasons.
Let's not forget, Pearsall was an elite college prospect.
Ricky Pearsall is a WR prospect in the 2024 draft class. He scored a 9.90 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 32 out of 3121 WR from 1987 to 2024.https://t.co/jff1C8sPXH pic.twitter.com/VAUweLJziY
— RAS.football (@MathBomb) March 16, 2024
Matthew Golden, WR, Green Bay Packers
FantasyPros Consensus ADP - 100.0 (WR44)
Jayden Reed (foot) and Dontayvion Wicks (calf) are currently battling injuries in the preseason. Christian Watson is rehabbing from a torn ACL and isn't likely to play until later in the 2025 season.
With the Packers' medical staff being notoriously conservative with injured players, it wouldn't be shocking to see one of Reed or Wicks miss time to begin the season.
That leaves the Packers with Romeo Doubs, Malik Heath, Savion Williams, and Golden.
Green Bay hasn't taken a wide receiver in the first round of the NFL Draft since selecting Javon Walker in 2002. Over 20 years! That changed this season when they drafted Golden 23rd overall.
According to PlayerProfiler, the speedster comps best to former Washington wide receiver Santana Moss.
It appears Matthew will have a golden opportunity right out of the gates. He played the most snaps of any Packer wideout during Family Night, which included five snaps from the slot.
The best part is that every single member of the coaching staff, as well as quarterback Jordan Love, has praised him throughout camp. "He's gonna be a stud," said Love.
Golden is not just a speedster. He's got elite hands and can run a versatile route tree, as he's shown during training camp.
Here, he creates separation at the line of scrimmage on a first-read target from Love on a critical 3rd and seven that leads to a first down:
Matthew Golden's first NFL reception!!! pic.twitter.com/AflMZueV1b
— Nash (@NashTalksTexas) August 10, 2025
No Packer receiver had a target share over 19% last season (Doubs) or a first-read target share north of 24%. Needless to say, there is a ton of opportunity for Golden in 2025, given the current state of the wide receiver room.
Not to mention the Lions, Packers, and Vikings were all inside the top 10 in scoring last season, and the Bears just added an offensive genius in Ben Johnson.
Points will be scored in the NFC North, and Golden will be the primary beneficiary of a lot of them. ESPN College Football Analyst Harry Douglas believes Golden will out-produce Tetairoa McMillan in 2025.
Emeka Egbuka, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
FantasyPros Consensus ADP - 101.0 (WR45)
People were a bit confused when the Buccaneers used the 19th overall pick to select the Ohio State wide receiver. Not only has the confusion dissipated, but it's turned into uncontrollable excitement.
Egbuka looks like the real deal, and with teammate Chris Godwin "nowhere near" a return from ankle surgery, he's going to get a shot right out of the gates in his rookie season.
Emeka Egbuka is SO GOOD. pic.twitter.com/aopVeUYilB
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) August 7, 2025
First-round rookie wide receivers can be cheat codes in fantasy football, especially those that show an immediate level of maturity at the next level.
Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. both finished as fantasy WR1s in 2024. Ladd McConkey, an early second-rounder, finished as a high-end WR2.
Egbuka's running mate, Mike Evans, didn't show many signs of decline in 2024. However, at some point, that's coming. It's inevitable. He'll be 32 at the start of his 12th NFL season.
When playing alongside Godwin for seven games last season, there was a noticeable difference in Evans' efficiency and production, however.
| With Godwin | Without Godwin | |
| Target share | 17.9% | 28.2% |
| Yards per route run | 1.85 | 3.41 |
| First-read target share | 22.6% | 32.5% |
| First downs per route run | 0.116 | 0.163 |
| Fantasy points per game | 13.6 | 20.7 |
Now, this isn't an Evans write-up; however, the point here is that Evans is not the same alpha he used to be with another elite wide receiver manning the slot alongside him.
Godwin was the overall WR6 through the first seven weeks of the 2024 season before dislocating his ankle. What if Egbuka is just as, if not better than, Godwin?
Baker Mayfield seems to think the Bucs have a winner in this kid. Unprompted, he called Egbuka "an absolute stud" and "the real deal" on Jason Kelce and Travis Kelce's New Heights podcast.
It sounds like there's a real chance Godwin doesn't play for possibly half the season, and who knows how productive he'll be when he returns.
Now we're getting wind that Jalen McMillan could miss at least half of the season with a severely sprained neck.
So it'll be Evans operating on the outside with Egbuka soaking up all the targets over the middle from Mayfield this season. The runway is more than cleared for a breakout season from the Ohio State rookie.
Tyler Warren, TE, Indianapolis Colts
FantasyPros Consensus ADP - 109.0 (TE11)
Breaking News: Daniel Jones has been named the starting quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts.
While Danny Dimes is far from great, he's a massive upgrade for the Colts' passing game. That includes first-round rookie tight end Warren from Penn State.
Tyler Warren down the sideline from Daniel Jones!
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/S0wrhDePFD
— NFL (@NFL) August 16, 2025
The Colts have been searching for a tight end for quite some time now, and they finally got their guy. In two preseason appearances, Warren's opportunity is what should excite fantasy managers.
He's played 34 of a possible 35 snaps with the first-team offense and saw three targets in each game. In the second preseason game with Jones at quarterback, Warren had a 91% route participation rate, a 33% target share, and saw 0.30 targets per route run.
As a college prospect, Warren finds himself among some elite tight end company. The guy was so dominant in college and has such a diverse skill set that Penn State even used him out of the backfield last season. He turned 26 rushing attempts into 218 yards and four touchdowns.
It looks like Shane Steichen might have similar plans for Warren in the NFL. It's giving off some strong Taysom Hill vibes, but of course, Warren is a much more polished route-runner and receiver.
Shane Steichen brought rookie TE Tyler Warren over to the QBs/RBs individual period so that Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones could simulate a handoff to him from the fullback spot. #Colts
— Noah Compton (@nerlens_) July 29, 2025
Warren has a real shot to finish as a top-5 tight end this season, just after the big three of Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, and George Kittle. The immediate upside and potential as a rookie make him a smash pick at his 100+ ADP.
Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots
FantasyPros Consensus ADP - 117.0 (QB16)
The Patriots made many significant upgrades this offseason. They brought in Mike Vrabel (head coach) and Josh McDaniels (offensive coordinator).
During the 2025 NFL Draft, they spent the fourth overall pick on LSU OT Will Campbell, the 38th overall pick on Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson, and the 69th overall pick on Washington State WR Kyle Williams.
They also added Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins to round out the receiver room. All of these additions are great news for the quarterback running the offense.
In nine games he started and finished as a rookie, Maye averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game. That would have been good for QB10 last season.
He did that with Jerod Mayo as head coach, Alex Van Pelt as offensive coordinator, and without Diggs, Henderson, and Williams.
Van Pelt even admitted to not calling run plays for his quarterback despite his ability as a runner. Despite that, he made the most of his opportunities to scramble, leading all QBs in scramble yards (317) during that stretch of games.
This is what makes Maye such a valuable fantasy quarterback. His ability to run. He'll not only scramble when pressured, but this season, McDaniels will design plays for his QB.
Last season, Maye averaged 36.8 rushing yards per game, 2.86 yards after contact per attempt (YACO/ATT), and had a 16.3% explosive run rate (per Fantasy Points Data).
Only Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Anthony Richardson Sr., and Jalen Hurts averaged more rushing yards per game, and no QB averaged a higher YACO/ATT than Maye. Jackson, Daniels, and Hurts all finished inside the top-6 in quarterback scoring in 2024.
New England has an implied total of 22.8 points in Week 1 and a projected win total of 8.5 after winning just four games last season. If the Patriots improve like the sportsbooks think they will, Maye is going to smash his ADP and be one of the next great dual-threat quarterbacks for fantasy football.
J.J. McCarthy, QB, Minnesota Vikings
FantasyPros Consensus ADP - 130.0 (QB19)
Sam Darnold had never averaged more than 15.6 fantasy points per game in his six-year NFL career before joining the Minnesota Vikings in 2024. Last season, he averaged 18.2 fantasy points per game.
That led to him landing a three-year, $100.5 million contract with the Seahawks this offseason. Was it Darnold, or was it the system that maximized his potential?
Probably a little bit of both, and the mastermind behind the system in Minnesota? Head Coach Kevin O'Connell, aka "KOC." He's gotten the most out of his last three starting quarterbacks dating back to his time in Los Angeles.
| With KOC | Without KOC | |
| Kirk Cousins (MIN) | 19.4 | 18.6 |
| Matthew Stafford (LAR) | 20.4 | 14.8 |
Many call him the "QB whisperer." It makes a lot of sense considering the splits these quarterbacks have seen with and without him calling plays.
Per Fantasy Points' Scott Barrett, O'Connell's offenses have finished top-6 in both passing yards and passing touchdowns each of the last four seasons.
Now it's McCarthy's turn. Former NFL QB Chase Daniel believes he's "even better than expected."
He also brings to the table the ability to tuck it and run, as we saw in the preseason. Cousins, Stafford, and Darnold, not so much.
JJ McCarthy looks exactly like Mahomes. Oh my god. pic.twitter.com/XMIhexCiLp
— Cam (@42Cyc) August 9, 2025
That will only increase his floor/ceiling combination in fantasy football, and if he's as good as he looks in training camp and the preseason, he's going to light the league on fire in 2025.
He's playing for the QB whisperer on a high-powered offense with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and Aaron Jones at his disposal, inside an NFC North division that puts up points in bunches.
A year from now, don't be surprised if we're talking about McCarthy as a top-5 quarterback option heading into the 2026 season.
Rashid Shaheed, WR, New Orleans Saints
FantasyPros Consensus ADP - 150.0 (WR55)
Shaheed played just five games last season, but he showcased his ability as a more complete receiver. As a result, the ball came his way much more often than it ever did in his first two NFL seasons.
Cam Jordan asks Rashid Shaheed how he has developed as a wide receiver
“I feel like my game going into year 4 has developed into a full wideout. I can run every route more than just a speed guy.”
via https://t.co/GO727UV4gD @camjordan94 pic.twitter.com/0kWLKGpITc
— Saints Tape (@SaintsTape) August 16, 2025
Shaheed averaged 14.5 fantasy points per game in the first five games of the 2024 season.
Per Fantasy Points Data, he bested teammate Chris Olave in target share (25% vs. 19.9%), first-read target share (32.2% vs. 25.3%), targets per route run (0.28 vs. 0.21), and yards per route run (2.82 vs. 2.15).
So why does Shaheed go 74 picks later than Olave in fantasy drafts this season? The answer is likely rooted in historical bias.
Olave is a former first-round pick out of Ohio State, while Shaheed went undrafted out of Weber State (shoutout Dame Lillard). Olave also has two 100-target seasons under his belt, whereas Shaheed has never eclipsed 75 targets in a single season.
But Shaheed was well on his way to doing so in 2024 before sustaining a torn meniscus in Week 6. His 6.8 targets per game projected out to 115 total targets in a 17-game season.
He did that despite a lack of what we like to call "layup" targets, or "designed touches." Kellen Moore showed us in the preseason that he's willing to give his wide receivers more of those kinds of targets in 2025.
While the sample size was very small, Shaheed played 39% of his routes from the slot in Preseason Week 2, a much higher mark than his 23% slot rate in 2024.
Lining up in a variety of spots shows that new head coach Moore has confidence in Shaheed to run a diverse route tree. That has many Saints beat writers saying the former undrafted free agent could break out in 2025.
