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College Football Underdog Picks: 5 Upset Predictions for Week 11 (2025)

Jake Retzlaff - College Football Rankings - CFB DFS Picks

Brant's best college football predictions and upset picks for Week 11 of the 2025 season. His top CFB underdogs and favorites on upset watch, including Iowa, Stanford, and more.

Last week undoubtedly shook up the college football landscape, specifically in the ACC, as both Georgia Tech and Miami fell. Vanderbilt’s loss to Texas opened the door back up for the Longhorns, while the door is now open to just about anyone in the ACC to sneak into the playoffs.

The playoff picture is ever-evolving this time of year, and this week will be no different. I have selected three marquee games to keep all eyes on this weekend that could drastically shake up the playoff picture, along with two other fun potential upsets to keep an eye on.

As always, do not let these five games slide under your radar as you are watching football this weekend.

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Tulane Green Wave (at #22 Memphis)

Tulane is fresh off a shocking beatdown loss at UTSA last Thursday. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff did not play his best game, and the pass defense struggled en route to a 48-26 loss that presumably knocked the Green Wave out of the playoff picture for good.

That can change this weekend, as they travel to Memphis to take on a good Tigers team. Memphis has recorded impressive wins over USF and Arkansas, and currently is in a position to control its own destiny to get to the CFP this season. With that being said, the American is deep this year, and Jon Sumrall’s Tulane team can still pack a punch. 

Going on the road with a fairly weak defense is no easy feat, but this Friday night game is flying severely under the radar. I like Tulane to give Memphis quarterback Brendon Lewis a hard time and to potentially knock off the current G5 favorite to make the CFP.

 

Iowa Hawkeyes (vs #6 Oregon)

This is my favorite upset pick of the week. Iowa has a knack for knocking off top-10 teams at home - Kirk Ferentz has beaten seven of them since 2000. While Oregon has the Hawkeyes beat in talent discrepancy overall, I actually like Iowa’s quarterback situation for this specific game more than I like Oregon’s.

Dante Moore is beaten up coming into this game. He will play after getting healthy over the bye, but he is still not 100% healthy. Moore also has proven that he cannot be trusted against a tough defense. Couple the fact that this game is likely to be rainy and in a tough environment, and Oregon could be in big trouble.

Mark Gronowski, on the other hand, has been playing some great football in Iowa’s offense. The Hawkeyes are averaging 34.3 points per game over their last three games, which is unheard of in recent years under Ferentz. They obviously have not seen a defense like Oregon’s over the past three games, but this Hawkeyes’ offense packs enough of a punch to be able to hang with top teams, unlike their other recent teams. Watch out for a major Big 10 upset this weekend.

 

Stanford Cardinal (at North Carolina)

A few years ago, you would have thought that Frank Reich vs. Bill Belichick would be a Sunday afternoon coaching matchup. Fast forward to 2025, and you’ve got a matchup between two ACC bottom dwellers coached by former NFL legends.

North Carolina finally won an ACC game last weekend, beating a Syracuse team that was starting a freshman quarterback with zero experience. Stanford has just two ACC wins itself, beating Florida State a few weeks back and Boston College back in September. Both teams have been fairly non-competitive in most conference matchups.

It’s hard to get much of a read on either team, but the Tar Heels seem to be favored too heavily after finally winning a game last weekend. Stanford is more competitive at this point than Syracuse is, and even going on the road, the Cardinal have enough talent to stack up with North Carolina.

 

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (at #12 Virginia)

The ACC keeps turning upside down week in and week out. Somehow, Virginia is on top of the conference right now after winning three ACC games in overtime and losing an ACC game that doesn’t count as an ACC game. The Cavaliers welcome a Wake Forest team to town that is fresh off a 42-7 beatdown loss to Florida State.

The Demon Deacons have been very up-and-down this season. Just a week before getting blown out at Florida State, they upset SMU. They’ve also taken Georgia Tech to overtime and beat Kennesaw State 10-9 early in the season. It’s been a quarterback carousel between veterans Robby Ashford and Deshawn Purdie for the 5-3 Demon Deacons, who have been more of a mess than a success this season.

The Cavaliers can’t get too comfortable at the top of the ACC - nobody can, really. Just given the fact that they have blown out nobody and been to overtime on three separate occasions means that no game can be taken for granted. Keep an eye on this Saturday night game.

 

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (vs San Diego State)

San Diego State has quietly coasted through Mountain West play. The Aztecs may be the least talked about G5 team, sitting at 7-1 with the one loss coming to Washington State. 

They travel to Hawaii this Saturday for an 11 pm kickoff. Quarterback Micah Alejado has been incredible for Hawaii, passing for 2,124 yards and 16 touchdowns through eight games this season. The Rainbow Warriors can put up points, averaging 39.2 points per game over their past four games. 

The Aztecs’ defense has been very strong, only surrendering a total of 17 points over the past three games. That being said, traveling to Hawaii and playing an offense on a level they have not seen all season will be a new level of test for San Diego State. Try to force yourself to stay up late enough for this marquee Mountain West matchup.

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