Fantasy Football Draft Avoids: Big-Name Players With Bust Potential (2025)

August 29, 2025

Andrew's big-name fantasy football busts, avoids, fades for 2025 drafts including Tyreek Hill, Breece Hall, and more. Drafting these start players could be risky.

"Hey, I recognize that name. He's been a fantasy football stalwart forever!" *Click*

Please don't say those words to yourself on draft day. A big name doesn't always equal big performances.

Avoid these big-name players, at least at cost, and you'll enjoy a successful fantasy football season. Here's why I'm fading Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Tyreek Hill, and Patrick Mahomes in 2025 drafts.

Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets

How many subtweets does it take to convey the message that the new Jets coaching staff doesn't love Breece Hall?

Time will tell

— Breece Hall (@BreeceH) August 7, 2025

The incumbent RB1 in East Rutherford has, on multiple occasions, voiced his displeasure with the situation under first-year head coach Aaron Glenn. Glenn suggested earlier in the offseason that a healthy running back rotation was in his game plan this fall. Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis (to a lesser extent) will see significant touches this season.

Hall was an RB2 on volume alone last season. His yards per carry have dropped in all three of his professional seasons. And his fantasy football calling card, his receptions, dipped in 2024, despite finishing fourth among running backs in targets. That number will take another hit in 2025.

Justin Fields is now the quarterback of the Jets, and Gang Green's team pass attempts project to be among the league's lowest. The reason Glenn talks about using all his running backs is that the Jets will run and run again until the game script forces them to pass. Even then, Fields could scramble it into a running play.

Allen profiles as the goal-line, power back, ala David Montgomery, if Glenn divides the workload like he saw during his time in Detroit. If receptions are down and goal-line opportunities are scarce (which they will be already due to New York's offensive inefficiencies), then how is Hall worth a third-round pick? I guess time will tell. But in the meantime, fantasy managers should favor Omarion Hampton, James Cook, and Kenneth Walker III instead.

Joe Mixon, RB, Houston Texans

Joe Mixon's extended success in the fantasy football realm may be coming to an end. The longtime Bengal and now Texan has finished as an RB1 in PPR points per game every season since 2020. But it's been largely done on volume, ranking inside the top 10 for opportunity share in every season outside of his rookie campaign. That's a lot of tread on the tires.

It doesn't help that one of those tires is deflated. Mixon dealt with foot and ankle issues on two separate occasions last season. He did not participate in OTAs, minicamp, or training camp. There were very few updates on his recovery until Monday, when the team placed him on the NFI list, forcing him to sit out the first four games of the regular season.

An update on RB Joe Mixon. pic.twitter.com/nUSc8DSNl5

— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) August 25, 2025

The designation makes Mixon the low-hanging fruit of the article. Now, you may be thinking, "I can get away with stashing him on IR for four games. We're drafting Jordan Addison, and he's guaranteed to miss three games due to a suspension."

There's a good chance he's sitting out more than the minimum requirement. The Texans have their scheduled bye in Week 6. Bringing back Mixon, who hasn't been participating in football activities, for one game, only to have another break, won't happen. Will we even see him at the halfway point of the fantasy football season?

The Houston offensive line is also a mess and ranks among the worst units entering the season. Laremy Tunsil and Shaq Mason, the best pieces of an underperforming 2024 line, departed in the offseason. Now, they'll try and make running lanes for a slowed-down Nick Chubb, the previously cast aside Dameon Pierce, and fourth-round rookie Woody Marks.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins

Fantasy football research is a numbers-based game. But sometimes, vibes can push you away from one of football's all-time greats because the vibes in Miami aren't great.

Outside of the drama surrounding Tyreek Hill, the Dolphins have traded their best player in their secondary, complained about an opposing team being too physical, and lost their starting kicker to injury to open the regular season. The once promising start to the Mike McDaniel era is looking shaky.

And then there's Hill, who has gone from saying he won't play for the Dolphins again, to walking back those comments, to losing trust with the franchise quarterback, to managing an oblique injury as the regular season rapidly approaches.

🎥 Tua Tagovailoa on rebuilding his relationship with Tyreek Hill following Tyreek Hill's "I'm out" comments last season

"When you say something like that, you don't just comeback from that with 'hey, my bad'... You got to build everything up again. It's still a work in… pic.twitter.com/W7WXrwpeeB

— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) July 23, 2025

The Dolphins won one game against a team with a winning record last season and are 3-13 overall in that stat during McDaniel's tenure. Last year was the first time Hill missed the postseason in his NFL career.

Hill's mediocre play on the field contributed to Miami's tumultuous 2024 season. He caught six touchdowns, tied with his rookie season for a career-low mark. His receptions per game (4.8) and yards per game (56.4) only topped his debut campaign.

Much has been made about a wrist injury that limited his abilities, but it's also fair to wonder if age is a contributing factor. After all, Hill's best skill is his speed, and 31 years of age brings a lot of miles on those wheels.

Hill's injury is the tip of the iceberg, but many of Miami's skill-position players are managing ailments. De'Von Achane (calf) hasn't practiced in a week. Backup running back Jaylen Wright (leg) is projected to miss Week 1. Jaylen Waddle, despite being healthy right now, often picks up bumps and bruises. Plus, offensive guard Austin Jackson is at risk of missing Week 1, and he is one of the best members of a shaky offensive line.

Hill is being selected at the Round 2/3 turn, and that's expensive for a guy who was the WR18 and may be in the process of being supplanted by Waddle as the team's WR1.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

Arguably the biggest name in all of football, drafting Patrick Mahomes can be a casual fantasy football player's dream. In reality, it will do you more harm than good.

The two-time MVP and three-time Super Bowl champion is, on average, a fifth-round draft pick in redraft leagues, sometimes off the board before the 4/5 turn. It's too early for a quarterback who hasn't finished inside the top 10 in points per game in two seasons and plays for a Kansas City team that can win games without relying on its superstar to throw 50 times.

The list of QBs with the most TDs on throws of 20+ yards over the past three seasons is NFL Twitter's worst nightmare:

1. Derek Carr - 29
2. Jalen Hurts - 28
3. Geno Smith - 26
4. Trevor Lawrence - 24
5. Tua Tagovailoa - 22
...
t-28th. Mac Jones - 7
t-28th. Patrick Mahomes - 7 pic.twitter.com/cVfaXl7YA6

— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) August 25, 2025

It's not to say Mahomes can't return to his league-winning roots. He's been a QB1, mostly in the top five, every other starting season of his professional career. But that's a pricy bet to make, and one that would be way more comfortable to make in Round 8.

It's the story for all of the middle-round quarterbacks (and tight ends to a lesser extent). Mahomes leads the small tier of himself, Baker Mayfield, and Bo Nix. The trio is being selected in Round 7, or earlier, leaving valuable wide receivers and running backs on the board.

Instead of picking up a reliable flex in Jameson Williams, Isiah Pacheco, or George Pickens (or possibly even a starter if a manager picks up a tight end early), you're attaching your ship to a quarterback who isn't much better than the options that follow.

Take Brock Purdy, for example. He outscored Mahomes on a points-per-game basis a season ago. He's going about 50 picks after his Super Bowl LVIII counterpart. Jared Goff, quarterbacking last season's most explosive offense, may be found even later. He added 1.4 more fantasy points every week than Mahomes.

There's also a massive group of lesser options that can deliver QB1 seasons, like Jordan Love, Drake Maye, and Dak Prescott. If a fantasy manager misses out on the top five quarterbacks (Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, and Joe Burrow), then waiting until much deeper in the draft is the most cost-efficient strategy.

LIKE ROTOBALLER?

CLICK HERE, ENTER ROTOBALLER.COM, THEN CHECK THE BOX

More Fantasy Football Analysis