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Hayden Epinette's fantasy football analysis for wide receiver George Pickens. Is this NFL second-year wideout a 2023 fantasy football breakout candidate?
As we progress through the NFL offseason, the amount of research fantasy managers are putting into their leagues is ramping up considerably. One key aspect of planning that fantasy enthusiasts must focus on is identifying breakout candidates. If you can pounce on a player just before they reach their peak level of production, you can acquire an elite asset at a low-cost draft position, a major component of fantasy success.
One player who has the potential to achieve a breakthrough in 2023 is Steelers wideout, George Pickens. Pickens arrived in Pittsburgh last season as a promising rookie, and now he will hope to build on his first year with a successful sophomore campaign. Second-year players often make big leaps, and Pickens may continue the trend.
To dive deeper into Pickens' prospects for 2023, we can start by assessing his early-season performances last year and progress through his rookie season. After, we can look into the specific skills that Pickens possesses to make his chances of a breakout more likely. Finally, we can analyze the situation in Pittsburgh, including quarterback Kenny Pickett, to make a final determination on Pickens' outlook for the upcoming year.
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A Rusty Start to the Season for George Pickens
George Pickens had a difficult final season with the Georgia Bulldogs in 2021. After tearing his ACL in spring practices, he was only able to suit up for four games as a junior. Those appearances also only saw him catch five passes, although he certainly still put up some highlights during his time on the field. Nonetheless, he was drafted in the second round in 2022 by the Pittsburgh Steelers with a small body of work from his last collegiate campaign.
Pickens entered the 2022 preseason with reasonable expectations for a rookie wideout, especially one on a team already featuring Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool. However, he impressed observers in August with his performances to such an extent that his fantasy stock rose considerably. His showing against the Seattle Seahawks, which included a 26-yard toe-tapping touchdown grab, led some experts to list him as a sleeper to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
The hype quickly died down, though, after his initial games of the regular season. While he did make a very impressive reception against the Cleveland Browns in Week 3 (more on that later), his overall stats were quite underwhelming. With only five catches for 65 yards over the first three weeks of the year, Pickens' sparse meaningful game action dating back to his knee injury may have contributed to his slow start.
George Pickens' Up-and-Down Midseason Stretch
During the team's Week 4 contest, Pittsburgh's starting quarterback, Mitch Trubisky, was benched in favor of rookie passer Kenny Pickett. This game also marked a shift for Pickens; he finished the 24-20 loss to the Jets with six catches for 102 yards, surpassing his prior season totals. He then followed that up with a six-grab, 83-yard showing against the Buffalo Bills in the subsequent week. Pickens' latent talent was surfacing.
The former Bulldog also had strong showings against the Dolphins and Bengals, but some of his appearances were major stinkers as well. He went without a catch versus Philadelphia and picked up two mere yards in Atlanta. Pickens' potential was clear, but the inconsistency was maddening for both Steelers fans and fantasy managers.
| Week (Opponent) | Receptions | Targets | Rec Yards | Yards/Rec | Rec TDs |
| Week 4 (vs NYJ) | 6 | 8 | 102 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Week 5 (@ BUF) | 6 | 8 | 83 | 13.8 | 0 |
| Week 6 (vs TB) | 3 | 6 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Week 7 (@ MIA) | 6 | 6 | 61 | 10.2 | 1 |
| Week 8 (@ PHI) | 0 | 3 | 0 | N/A | 0 |
| Week 10 (vs NO) | 3 | 4 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 |
| Week 11 (vs CIN) | 4 | 6 | 83 | 20.8 | 1 |
| Week 12 (@ IND) | 3 | 6 | 57 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Week 13 (@ ATL) | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
George Pickens Had a Solid Finish
Pickens closed his rookie season out with a little more consistency than he had displayed previously. In four of his final five games, he posted more than 50 receiving yards, and he also scored two touchdowns in this span.
| Week (Opponent) | Receptions | Targets | Rec Yards | Yards/Rec | Rec TDs |
| Week 14 (vs NYJ) | 3 | 3 | 78 | 26.0 | 0 |
| Week 15 (@ BUF) | 2 | 5 | 53 | 26.5 | 0 |
| Week 16 (vs TB) | 5 | 5 | 57 | 11.4 | 1 |
| Week 17 (@ MIA) | 2 | 4 | 29 | 14.5 | 0 |
| Week 18 (@ PHI) | 3 | 6 | 72 | 24.0 | 1 |
Pickens also displayed flashes of his big-play ability. In three of these last five weeks, Pickens gained at least 24 yards per reception. He established himself as a dynamic vertical receiving threat.
Unfortunately, Pickens did not have as many opportunities to shine in this stretch as he had before. In eight of his first 10 games, he ran 30 or more routes; he achieved this just once in his last seven appearances.
Of his eight outings with at least six targets, only one came in December or January. Finally, his only two games with a sub-70-percent snap share were in Weeks 15 and 18. Pickens may have put up some respectable fantasy performances, but that came in spite of decreased usage.
| Span | Snap Share | Routes/Gm | Targets/Gm | Rec/Gm |
| Weeks 1-11 | 78.8% | 33.2 | 5.3 | 3.3 |
| Weeks 12-18 | 72.0% | 27.0 | 4.4 | 2.7 |
The Incredible Ball Skills of George Pickens
The main skill that Pickens possesses that allows him to find success is his ability to make difficult catches. The above clip of him against Carolina is a decent example of this, but the best one from last year was his aforementioned circus catch against the Browns that reignited the hype surrounding him.
Pickens has a track record of making impressive catches dating back to his college career in Athens. His 52-yard diving grab in the National Championship against Alabama was remarkable.
This ability shows up in the advanced metrics, not just on highlight reels. Pickens' 57.1 percent contested catch rate last season was good enough to be 13th in the league among WRs. He did a lot of this damage downfield, too; he had the third-highest aDot and the seventh-most deep targets of all wideouts.
The ESPN Analytics team used tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats to rate all receivers on several metrics, including their catching ability. Pickens and Donovan Peoples-Jones were the only two receivers to achieve a 99 rating for catching, demonstrating their elite capabilities to bring in even the toughest of passes.
| Name | Team | Catch Rtg | Open Rtg | YAC Rtg | Overall | Routes |
| George Pickens | PIT | 99 | 48 | 41 | 71 | 551 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | CLE | 99 | 41 | 37 | 63 | 529 |
| Mike Williams | LAC | 87 | 49 | 53 | 69 | 417 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | NYG | 85 | 63 | 32 | 67 | 319 |
| Tee Higgins | CIN | 83 | 67 | 50 | 77 | 616 |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | 81 | 81 | 50 | 85 | 667 |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | 81 | 83 | 43 | 83 | 619 |
It's a good thing for Pickens that he is so talented at making challenging receptions because he had difficulty gaining separation from defenders. His average target separation of 1.35 yards ranked 94th among wideouts last season, and his target separation against man coverage of 0.94 yards ranked 95th. This is an area that he will need to improve upon in order to take the next step in his path toward stardom.
George Pickens Could Emerge in 2023
Unlike last season, Pickens will enter 2023 without Chase Claypool to compete with for targets. However, Claypool was traded midseason last year, and Pickens' usage did not change much at all as a result. In fact, if anything, Pickens' volume decreased in the latter stages of 2022. Still, on paper, this should be beneficial for the second-year wideout, who will likely be entering the season as Pittsburgh's number two WR.
The primary potential challenger to that expectation is Allen Robinson II. Robinson was acquired this spring in exchange for only moving down 17 spots in the seventh round of this year's draft. The former Jaguar, Bear, and Ram is now 30 years old, and he has missed significant time due to injuries in recent seasons.
Moreover, over the past two years, he has averaged just 34.0 yards per game. If Robinson is able to regain his form from 2020 and before, he could pose as a real threat, but that appears quite unlikely.
The other top options in Pittsburgh remain wide receiver Diontae Johnson and tight end Pat Freiermuth. Both will command hefty shares of the team's targets, but Johnson has struggled with drops and efficiency issues. Freiermuth, while good, is not elite. There is an opportunity for Pickens to carve out a much larger role in the offense if he continues to progress.
Pickens' output will depend significantly on the development of quarterback Kenny Pickett as well. Pickett, like Pickens, is entering his second year in the league. In a lot of ways, there is nowhere to go but up for him.
Pickett tossed just seven touchdowns in 13 games, and his 6.2 yards per attempt ranked 32nd among QBs. Some inevitable improvements from Pickett will carry over to Pickens. Pickett's current biggest strength (sixth in deep ball accuracy rating, first in deep ball catchable pass rate) also suits Pickens perfectly.
With these factors in mind, Pickens appears poised for an increase in production. However, it is important to be mindful of the full range of outcomes. If Pickett continues to struggle, Robinson stays healthy, and Pickens still struggles to gain distance from defenders, a very disappointing campaign could be in store.
Since May, Pickens has had an ADP as the WR35. In dynasty startups, he is going as the WR31. These are fair assessments given his current situation, but there is a clear path to him outperforming these expectations. This makes Pickens one of the top breakout candidates for 2023.
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