WR Target and Snap Count Risers from Week 11

November 23, 2018

Phil Clark examines the most important risers and fallers in target share, red zone targets, and snap count for fantasy football wide receivers before Week 12.

Your wide receivers remain essential components toward accomplishing your unwavering goal of securing a league championship. As the season unfolds, it is crucial for you to utilize the tools that you have available, in order to maintain an extensive level of knowledge regarding the number of opportunities that are being provided to your wide receivers - both in terms of their snap counts and how often they are being targeted by their quarterbacks.

Each week, this article will examine these specific categories, along with any other noteworthy changes in usage that signal an increase or regression in opportunity. This will bolster your efforts to decide which wide receivers should be in your lineups as you plan for Week 12, while also helping you determine which receivers to depend on during the impending fantasy playoffs. Pro Football Reference and NFL Savant were used to obtain all target and red zone target totals, while snap count information was assembled with information from Football Outsiders.

We now are in possession of data from 11 weeks of game action that will provide the basis for comparison of snap counts and targets for each receiver. This will include the most likely candidates to experience a rise or decline in those numbers during the upcoming weeks. Here is a breakdown of the most compelling changes in usage and opportunity from Week 11.

Overall Targets  

Adam Thielen returned from Minnesota’s bye week to collect 12 targets and promptly recapture the overall lead for the season (115). Julio Jones is next with 111, followed by Antonio Brown (109), with Jarvis Landry, Davante Adams, and Odell Beckham Jr. in a three-way tie at 106. Stefon Diggs has now accumulated 103 targets, while no other receivers have reached 100 heading into Week 12 game action.

However, six players have attained at least 90 targets – DeAndre Hopkins (96), Tyreek Hill (94), JuJu Smith-Schuster (93), Michael Thomas (91), Mike Evans (91), and Robert Woods (90) - while six other receivers have obtained 80+ targets: Keenan Allen (87), Brandin Cooks (84), Tyler Boyd (81), Golden Tate (81), Emmanuel Sanders 80, and Corey Davis (80). A total of five receivers have also eclipsed 70 targets through 11 weeks (Michael Crabtree, Willie Snead, A.J. Green, Kenny Golladay, Nelson Agholor), while 11 have collected 60+ targets.

13 different receivers were targeted at least 10 times in Week 11, although Diggs was easily the weekly leader with a whopping 18. That was the highest total since fellow Viking Thielen collected 19 back in Week 3. The only other weekly total that has exceeded Diggs' Week 11 collection of targets was the 19 that were allotted to Smith-Schuster in Week 2.

Kenny Golladay and Hill were next in line behind Diggs with 14, followed by Tre'Quan Smith (13), Brown (13), Thielen (12), Adams (12), Allen (12), Cooks (12), Woods (11), Boyd (11), Smith- Schuster (10), and Doug Baldwin (10). T.Y. Hilton, Jones (9), Keke Coutee, Taylor Gabriel (9). Bruce Ellington (9) just missed double-digits, while Tate, Snead, Devin Funchess, David Moore, Chris Conley, and Mohamed Sanu were each targeted eight times.

Thielen’s 11.5 targets-per-game is currently the league’s highest average among wide receivers, followed by Diggs (11.4). Jones (11.1), Brown (10.9), Beckham (10.6), Adams (10,6), and Landry (10.6). No other receivers are currently maintaining an average of 10+.

Largest Increases And Decreases

After failing to receive a target in Week 10, Tre'Quan Smith collected a career-best 13 against Philadelphia, which easily resulted in the largest increase for the week. It was also a significant surprise to those who had dropped him before his matchup with the Eagles, as he entered the contest with just 20 targets for the season.

Ellington began Week 11 with just 12 targets throughout 2018, and none since he was targeted just once in Week 3. But he might have secured a sustained role within Detroit’s passing attack after collecting nine during his debut as a Lion. That tied Ellington for the second largest increase for the week with Keke Coutee, whose total was the highest since his NFL debut in Week 4.

Those players were followed by a cluster of established veterans who also experienced increases of at least five during the week - Antonio Brown (7), Diggs (7), Boyd (7), Woods (6), Taylor Gabriel (6), Thielen (5), Adams (5), Smith-Schuster (5), Baldwin (5), and David Moore. Baldwin's season-high 10 targets enabled him to attain that rise of five after he had averaged just 4-per-game from Weeks 8-10. John Ross was targeted just 16 times from Weeks 1-9, but the second-year receiver has garnered 13 targets during Cincinnati’s last two matchups, after collecting seven against AFC North rival Baltimore. But whenever Green returns to the lineup, the opportunities for Ross will diminish.

Beckham’s season-low four targets ended his streak of seven consecutive games with at least 10. However, he remains tied with Thielen as the only players that have captured 10+ targets in eight games. Snead has averaged 8.8 targets since Week 6, although the overall unpredictability of Baltimore’s offense is one of this week’s topics in the 5 Things That I Noticed section. Marquez Valdes-Scantling averaged 6.8 targets-per-game from Weeks 5-10. But anyone who started him in Week 11 suffered through an excruciating experience as Aaron Rodgers only attempted to locate him three times - including the Packer’s final two offensive plays.

Red Zone Targets

Smith-Schuster remains the overall leader in red zone targets (21) and is followed closely by Adams and Thomas with 20, while Beckham (18) and Hopkins (17) finalize the top five. Landry (16), Thielen (15), Green (14), Brown (14), and Shepard (14) are next, while Davis, Hilton, and Cooks are tied at (13). Amari Cooper has attained 12 targets, four receivers have accumulated 11  (Edelman, Fitzgerald, Hill, Marvin Jones), and seven players have obtained 10 (Diggs, Alshon Jeffery, Evans, Funchess, Chris Godwin, Zay Jones, Watkins).

Woods captured red zone four targets during the Rams' memorable matchup with Kansas City, which was the largest total for the week. His teammate Josh Reynolds joined Baldwin and Golladay in capturing three targets, as four of Golladay's nine targets for the season have been distributed by Matthew Stafford in the Lions’ last two games. Fitzgerald, Diggs, Hopkins, Allen, and Snead all received two targets during their matchups.

Hopkins continues to lead all receivers with 13 targets inside the 10-yard line, followed by Thomas (11), Hilton (9), Godwin (9), Davis (8), Beckham (7), Woods (7), and Cooper (7). Eight receivers have attained six targets within the 10-yard line through 11 weeks (Smith-Schuster, Adams, Green, Cooks, Edelman, Funchess, Marvin Jones, Golladay).

Largest Increases And Decreases

There will be significant discussion about the newly integrated receivers in the Ram's post-Cooper Kupp offense, which includes the upcoming 5 Things That I Noticed section of this article. But Woods owners should be ecstatic that he garnered those season-high four red zone targets, because those were his first opportunities inside the 20 since September.

In addition to achieving the highest weekly total, Woods also experienced the largest increase. Reynolds was next with a rise of +3 that resulted from his first red zone targets since Week 8.

The largest regression was experienced by Michael Thomas (-5), Westbrook (-4), Beckham (-3), and Adams (-3). However, only Westbrook owners have any reason for concern moving forward, as the ongoing volatility of Jacksonville receivers continues to fluctuate in lockstep with the deficiencies of their quarterback.

Snap Counts  

Woods temporarily leads all receivers in total snaps for the season (725), after he performed on 79 plays for the Rams in Week 11. Woods and his teammates will finally have their bye this week, which will enable a group of receivers to surpass him. Hopkins (682), Brown (667), Landry (659), and Thielen (653), are the most likely candidates to accomplish that once Week 12 game action is complete.

Hopkins still paces all receivers in snap percentage throughout the season (99%), followed by Woods (97%), Thielen (97%), Brown (95%), Beckham (95%), Shepard (94%), Adams (93%), Landry (91%), Golladay (91%) and Agholor (91%). No other receiver has attained a 90% average, although nearly all of the players that have achieved it through 11 weeks should continue to do so. The lone exception is Agholor, whose snaps have been slightly reduced since Golden Tate joined the Eagles' receiving arsenal.

Hopkins did perform on 100% of Houston's offensive snaps in Week 11, although that does not qualify as breaking news. His season-long percentage underscores that his presence on every snap for the Texans has become a weekly event. Thielen and Jeffery joined him in playing on every snap for their teams, while Woods virtually matched their achievement by playing on 99% of the Rams' snaps.

Reynolds, Brown, and Valdes-Scantling all reached 98%, while Hill performed on 96% of his team's snaps. That tied Hill with rookie Marcell Ateman, who was making his NFL debut with Oakland. Boyd was the only other receiver who attained 95%, while 13 others played between 94-90% of their team's snaps.

Largest Increases And Decreases

The 98% count of Reynolds is significant and will be discussed in-depth shortly. Ateman was elevated from Oakland's practice squad prior to his Week 11 debut and promptly played on nearly all of the Raiders' snaps.

Ross established a new season high by performing on 51/93% of Cincinnati's snaps and has now averaged 88.2% in the Bengal's last two contests. He had only played on 49.3% of the team's snaps prior to Week 10.

Conley has only surpassed a 70% count once all season prior to Week 10, but has played on 90.2% of Kansas City's snaps in the Chiefs' last two games. None of the receivers who experienced a regression of at least -8% are in danger of enduring a sizable role change (Beckham, Shepard, Humphries, Westbrook).

Five Things That I Noticed

1. Jared Goff targeted Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods 23 times during the 448-yard aerial assault that the Rams unleashed on Kansas City. But Josh Reynolds also commandeered eight targets, including the aforementioned trio of opportunities in the red zone. The second-year receiver capitalized by collecting six of Goff's throws for 80 yards and a touchdown, while nearly generating a second score. Reynolds also was involved in 98% of Los Angeles' offensive snaps, after averaging just 31.7% during games in which Cooper Kupp was unencumbered by health issues. Reynolds' performance has eviscerated the uncertainty that had existed regarding the extent of his role within a passing attack that has been reconstructed due to Kupp's torn ACL. This explosive unit will maintain its proficiency, and Reynolds should remain an integral component moving forward. He should also be added immediately if he remains available in your league.

2. While expanded roles for the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards provided fantasy owners with two massive waiver wire targets at the quarterback and running back positions, the results of Baltimore’s re-distributed usage among offensive components in Week 11 supplied disappointing results for anyone who desperately needed a scoring boost from Michael Crabtree or John Brown. Crabtree (8.4), Brown (7.4), and Willie Snead (7.7) all entered Week 11 with favorable target-per-game averages, but Snead was the only member of the trio whose level of opportunity in Week 11 even remotely approached his season-long average. Crabtree (3) and Brown (1) both experienced season lows, while Lamar Jackson only attempted 19 passes. Owners can still consider starting all three receivers this week against a Raider pass defense that has surrendered 15 touchdowns. But the Raven offense is evolving and it is difficult to forecast exactly who will be under center and what the strategic approach will be in upcoming weeks. This makes it questionable whether Baltimore will operate with an attack that keeps Crabtree, Brown, and Snead involved to the degree they were previously.

3. Demaryius Thomas was averaging seven targets-per-game when he was running routes with Denver, which was largely achieved from the 21 targets that he accumulated in Weeks 1-2. But during his first two games as a Texan, his lack of usage has been extremely alarming. He has now been targeted a grand total of four times, including just a single target in Houston's Week 11 matchup with Washington. The fact that Deshaun Watson launched nine passes in the direction of Keke Coutee creates justifiable concern for Thomas owners while providing the rationale to avoid using him moving forward. Meanwhile, anyone who owns Courtland Sutton or Emmanuel Sanders should continue reaping the benefits of Thomas's departure. Sanders is now averaging 8.5 targets-per-game while functioning as Denver’s WR1, and Sutton’s 5.5 per-game average should continue to rise as he capitalizes on his expanded opportunities.

4. During his first two games as an Eagle, Golden Tate has captured 12 targets, while Alshon Jeffery has collected 13. Jeffery’s 6.5-per-game average represents a decrease from the 8.8 per-game that he was averaging prior to Philadelphia's October 30 trade for Tate. The limited sample size should temper any urge to make major declarations about the usage of either receiver, however it is not too early to declare Nelson Agholor as the big loser in the trade for Tate. Agholor had achieved double-digit targets in three games, and was 19th overall with 61 for the season prior to the trade (7.6 per-game). But Carson Wentz launched just two passes in his direction during the team's Week 11 matchup, and Agholor is averaging 4.5 targets per game with Tate in the lineup. He was also tied for fourth among all wide receivers in offensive snaps (92%), which has been reduced to 87.5% in the last two weeks. Tate and Jeffrey owners can remain cautiously optimistic while continuing to monitor their weekly usage - but Agholor is not a receiver that can be trusted in lineups moving forward.

5. Since the encouraging target totals for Smith, Coutee, and Sutton have already been discussed, this week's review of the rookies will focus on a trio of newcomers whose Week 11 target results have elevated their position within the fantasy landscape. D.J. Chark has now collected 5+ targets in three of his last four contests after capturing five against Pittsburgh. While he will not surpass Moncrief or Westbrook on the Jaguars' depth chart, he certainly has leapfrogged Keelan Cole. Meanwhile, Marcell Ateman and Trey Quinn both experienced their first NFL game action, as Ateman caught four of his five targets, and Quinn captured all four passes that were launched in his direction. Ateman gained separation while making a critical reception to set up the Raiders' game-winning field goal, and is now a strong candidate to become Oakland's WR1 within a massively depleted receiving unit. Quinn could accumulate targets on a weekly basis while performing with Colt McCoy on a Redskin offense that has been confronted with a mammoth number of health issues of their own. Both Ateman and Quinn and are worthy of roster spots for anyone who can comfortably create space.

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