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Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott could be the top-scoring fantasy RB in 2018, but new addition Tavon Austin could cut into Elliott's targets and render Elliott a liability in PPR leagues. Pierre Camus examines whether Elliott is worth a top-five pick and if Austin is worth a roster spot at all.
Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott could be the top overall player in fantasy football in 2018. In fact, I had this notion throughout the offseason that he would be utilized more in the passing game and parlay his league-leading rushing yard-per-game average into an overall RB1 finish. But I'm taking it back.
Dez Bryant is out of the Big D and the team is left without a true #1 receiver. Elliott will obviously be the focal point of the offense once again (hopefully with a full 16 games under his belt this time), and he is in the rare position of having no true pass-catching back to threaten his snap count on obvious passing downs.
Despite the logical reasoning that we could see Zeke targeted in the passing game significantly more to compensate for the lack of elite pass-catchers to complement him, there is one unexpected factor we may be overlooking: Tavon Austin.
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You Mean That Tavon Austin?
Do you know another? Austin is an afterthought in the fantasy community these days and has rarely been discussed this offseason. His ADP in 2018 fantasy football drafts is N/A. Inconspicuously traded for a sixth-round pick on the day of the NFL Draft, there are many casual football fans that are even aware he's a Cowboy now.
Last year in Los Angeles, under offensive guru and NFL Coach of the Year Sean McVay, Austin saw his role shift from outside receiver to gimmick player. In 2017, he caught 13 passes on just 22 targets, which was fewer than rookies Josh Reynolds and Gerald Everett. The previous year, he was the team's second-leading receiver, catching 59 of 107 targets. Before that, in 2015, Austin led the Rams with 54 catches and 93 targets. Those days are over now, even in receiver-starved Dallas, as Austin will work primarily out of the backfield.
An interesting trend is the fact he saw an uptick in rush attempts, which really came in the form of short passes and dump-offs behind the line of scrimmage. Over the last three years, Austin has tallied 48, 26, and 57 rush attempts respectively.
Cowboys vice president Stephen Jones referred to him as a "web back" and then went as far as to say they want to give Austin the ball "a dozen to two dozen times per game." Coach Jason Garrett confirmed the team will try to get the ball in his hands in a variety of ways, including the return game. Actual Cowboys head coach Jerry Jones was behind the move to acquire Austin in the first place, so you know he will be a factor. Austin confirmed the mutual love recently, saying "Jerry Jones called me and told me he'd been wanting me. So, when somebody says that to you it makes you feel so much better."
The team lacked a true pass-catching back, relying on Elliott as the main receiver at RB, with backup Rod Smith registering 24 targets and Alfred Morris seeing 10 targets, despite Elliott's six-game absence. Austin could fill a role the team hasn't utilized properly since Zeke came to town. Speaking of Elliott, why is it that he doesn't see more targets when he seems perfectly capable of being a three-down back?
Elliott's Heavy Non-Usage in the Passing Game
Elliott ranked 37th in passing targets among running backs last season, catching 26 passes on 38 targets. Sure, he missed six games due to suspension so that number should be kicked up a bit. right? In his rookie year, it was pretty close to the same, with 32 receptions on 39 targets. Year three could see him more involved, especially considering all the factors we already discussed but is it going to be a significant leap? Enough to put him in Todd Gurley territory? Not likely.
Elliott actually ran as many routes per game as the top workhorse backs, but he simply didn't see the targets. In fact, Elliott was third among running backs in routes run per game, yet was dead last among all qualified backs in targets per route. What gives? We don't know why Dak Prescott doesn't look his way more often. Perhaps he naturally favored his big receiver, Dez Bryant and it could change now that he is gone. Or perhaps Prescott doesn't have the same level of trust in Elliott as he does with his receivers. More than likely, it's a result of Offensive Coordinator Scott Linehan's system, which prefers the vertical passing game and traditional role for his tailbacks. He is entering his fourth year as OC in Dallas and doesn't seem particularly pressed to change things up, despite the Cowboys finishing as a middle-of-the-pack team offensively in 2017 (14th in points scored and total yards).
Either way, there are two ways to look at the situation: Elliott's targets will either jump up, as many believe, or will remain static. If we get the same production as his 2016 rookie season, that still makes for a first-round value. We won't get the top overall player, however, and depending on how the Cowboys' season goes, he may not be worth a top-five pick if the touchdown count goes down, especially in PPR leagues.
To quote PFF's Scott Barrett, master of metrics, "Over the past decade, in PPR leagues, a target has been worth 2.64 times as many fantasy points as a carry for running backs. Running backs who fail to draw high target totals can still be successful for fantasy, but their ceiling is lower, they’re more prone to weekly variance, and are more dependent upon positive game script." I full expect Elliott to lead the league in carries, possibly rushing yards and, potentially, rushing touchdowns. Players like Johnson, Bell, Gurley, Hunt and maybe even Barkley could fall well short of those totals yet still outscore him in fantasy if the receiving numbers are far superior. Elliott could and should see a jump in pass targets, but the addition of Tavon Austin could quell the expectations of a true breakout.
So Should We Care About Austin?
In regard to his impact on Elliott, I believe so. He's a former receiver who has been brought over for a specific purpose, which is to take screen passes, dump-offs, and the occasional reverse out of the backfield. Concerns? There should be some, for sure. First, Austin is adjusting to a new system and trying to find not just his niche in the Cowboys offense, but a position to call his own. Second, Austin has quite the checkered injury history, with as many as six different injuries on his resume in five NFL seasons. Finally, Austin is still second on the depth chart behind the man almost guaranteed to lead the league in rush attempts and might see his usage fluctuate greatly on a game-to-game basis. Capable backups Rod Smith and rookie Bo Scarbrough will push for snaps as well. Austin could be a late-round flier in best ball leagues, but doesn't warrant ownership in redraft leagues.
As Austin astutely claimed, "You just have to be in the right system at the right time." It remains to be seen whether this is Austin's time, but even if he isn't worth your attention in fantasy leagues, his presence could have an unexpected impact on a premier player. Ezekiel Elliott is a surefire first-rounder in all formats, so let's not get carried away thinking he will even approach bust status. He simply may not experience the third-year breakout by becoming the complete all-around back that we saw in Todd Gurley last year and for that reason, he's slid down my rankings out of the #1 spot.
Want to know where our experts have Zeke ranked? Check out our RB draft rankings for PPR, Standard, Best Ball, and Dynasty.
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