X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
Fantasy Updates
24x7 News and Alerts

Stud Wide Receivers You Should Worry About in 2020

The words sleeper and busts get thrown around by the fantasy community more than anything. You will often hear though that sleepers do not exist anymore. Well, there is no one at all arguing that there are no busts anymore. There are plenty of busts each and every season. And drafting a player that busts in the early rounds is a great way to put you behind the rest of the league. Some players never recover from drafting that early round bust.

We all try our best to identify and avoid potential busts, but it is something I work on each and every season. I think it is something you especially have to be cognitive of in 2020, given all the unknowns that will surround the season. If I am considering a player in the early rounds, I have to consider the downside just as much as the upside. If a player has a larger chance of busting than others going in the same range, especially if we are talking in the early rounds, I will avoid that player. Why take on unnecessary risks? Especially early when you are supposed to be building the base of your team.

The bust potential to me is something that should be weighted even heavier in 2020, when so much will be up in the air each week. Below I am going to talk about three superbly talented wideouts who due to one reason or another, I am fearful of busting this season. The earlier they go in drafts, the less likely I am to have them at all this season.

Featured Promo: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off and win big in 2023. Exclusive access to our Premium articles, 15 lineup tools, new Team Sync platform, Lineup Optimizer, Premium DFS tools and cheat sheets, and much more! Sign Up Now!

 

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is my biggest fade of the season so far. I did a deep dive on the entire Bucs offense already but I'll repeat that the change from Jameis Winston to Tom Brady has me petrified for Evans’ fantasy value. Brady is not going to turn the ball over 35 times, which likely leads to playing from behind less. Last season, the Bucs threw the ball 70 percent of the time when losing and just 52 percent when winning.

Brady also throws the ball down the field and out wide less than Winston. Winston averaged 10.4 air yards per pass attempts, while Brady was down at 7.6. Winston threw out wide 42 percent of the time, while Brady was 36 percent. That means Evans will now have a QB that throws out wide and down the field less, two strengths of his game. Evans averaged a (by far) league-leading 137 air yards per game in 2019. That is a lock to decrease this season.

Evans was already a rollercoaster as a fantasy asset, scoring 53 percent of his season-long fantasy points in just three weeks. I fear that he will once again be up-and-down this season, as he has to split work with Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, and others, in an offense that will likely throw less and with a QB less suitable for his abilities. Evans is going off the board as the WR7 in the late second or early third round of FFPC drafts. That is simply way too rich for a player with so many concerns.

 

Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills

Diggs is a player I definitely have concerns about. And before you come for me, Bills Mafia, you should know that I am one of you! Also, you should know that I think Diggs is a better fit for Buffalo than he is for fantasy.

First, the Bills suddenly have a lot of mouths to feed with Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Dawson Knox and then Devin Singletary and Zack Moss out of the backfield. You are already talking about a team that didn’t throw the ball a bunch at all last season. The Bills passed the ball on 54.3 percent of their plays last year, which ranked 24th in the NFL. This is a team that wants to run the ball, control the clock and rely on their defense, much like the Vikings did last season.

In 2019, Diggs was very up and down in fantasy, scoring 15+ in six games and being held to single-digit fantasy points in seven games. In the last two years, the Bills have had a WR top-20 fantasy points just seven times. It happened three times last year, with Brown doing so twice. In the three seasons, McDermott has been the Bills head coach, a player has topped 100 targets just three times. Two of those instances came last year with Brown and Beasley, while Zay Jones in 2018 was the other. Diggs should easily see over the 94 targets he had last year, but I would more expect him to sit around 110-120.

Now, if we are being totally honest, he has a lesser passer now slinging him the rock. Diggs was brought in to help Allen on the deep ball and I am sure he will, but there will also be some missed opportunities. It’s just part of the package that is Josh Allen. Last season, he finished as the WR24 in total fantasy points and WR26 in fantasy PPG. That is around what I am expecting again this season. That is right around where Diggs is being drafted, so you could make the case that he is going for a fair price. But my issue is there is more concern with Diggs busting, due to the run-first offense and Allen’s inconsistencies potentially making Diggs hard to trust each week. I am more interested in Allen this season than I am his weapons.

 

A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals

Green is going off the board as the WR28 in the sixth round. That may seem late for Green, who was consistently going in the early rounds for years. But if we are talking players who could potentially bust, I mean how can we not talk about Green?

First, he did not play a single snap last season. Since 2016, Green has missed 29 of a possible 64 games (45 percent). He’s played more than 10 games just once in that four-year span. Green is going to be entering the season as a 32-year-old receiver who has been plagued by lower-body injuries in recent seasons. I also worry because Green is on a one-year deal and we saw last season that he was not going to play through an injury and jeopardize his ability to land a multi-year deal. Another year older, this is something that is very much so in the back of my head, especially when you consider everything going on in 2020.

If Green suffers any sort of injury, I will be fearful of his absence being a lot longer than anticipated. This is not a knock on Green because I get that long-term health comes first, but as fantasy players, we need to be considering all these options.

Lastly, Green has more competition for targets than ever before. The Bengals now have Tyler Boyd, John Ross, Tee Higgins, Auden Tate, with Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard being used out of the backfield. That could help Green, as it will be harder for defenses to keen in on him, and a single covered Green is a scary idea.

It also could help Green that he has Joe Burrow slinging him the rock in an offense that was very pass-happy last season. I do think that Green is a boom-or-bust WR3, which is what he is being drafted as. But, if we are talking receivers who have the potential to bust, and bust hard this season, there is no way we can leave Green off the list.

And you don’t have to just take my word on it. I reached out to RotoBaller’s own physical therapist Aaron Burger (make sure to follow him on Twitter, @aaronburgerPT). Aaron knows way more than I will ever pretend to know about injuries, so I wanted to get his thoughts on Green heading into the season:

“His injury history is quite concerning to me considering he has a history of two things that commonly reoccur: hamstring strains and foot/ankle injuries. He has a significant history of R big toe sprains which given how small the ligaments are and lack of great blood flow, make them candidates for reinjury. In 2016, he had a complete tear of the hamstring and as we've seen with receivers like Will Fuller V, these soft tissue injuries can be bothersome for quite some time. Last year, he obviously missed the whole season with the torn ligaments in his ankle from a subpar practice field. That seems like a one-time thing and he's had a whole year to heal. I'm personally more concerned about his age, hamstring history, and toe injuries.”

These are three receivers that I have concerns about busting, especially at their ADP, this season. Who are some receivers you worry about busting? Let me know on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio

More Fantasy Football Analysis




LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
Fantasy Updates
24x7 News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

Connor McDavid11 mins ago

Hits 140 Points For The Season
Cale Makar24 mins ago

Helps To Set Up Two Goals
Marc-Andre Fleury30 mins ago

Returns To Form Monday
Matthew Boldy36 mins ago

Scores Another Hat Trick
Trevor Zegras43 mins ago

Suffers A Lower-Body Injury
Daniel Bard8 hours ago

Still Off Monday
Blake Sabol8 hours ago

Made "Fantastic Impression" This Spring
Anthony Rendon8 hours ago

On Fire This Spring
Tyler Anderson8 hours ago

Wraps Up Strong Spring Monday
Miguel Rojas8 hours ago

' Two-Strike Approach Leading To Success
Akil Baddoo8 hours ago

Optioned To Triple-A Toledo Monday
Zach McKinstry8 hours ago

Tigers Acquire Zach McKinstry Monday
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander10 hours ago

Questionable Versus Charlotte
Ja Morant10 hours ago

Doubtful Versus Orlando
Terry Rozier10 hours ago

Out Again On Tuesday Evening
Gordon Hayward10 hours ago

Unlikely To Play Against OKC
Daniel Gafford10 hours ago

Dealing With A Sore Foot
Kyle Palmieri10 hours ago

Records Three Points Monday
Monte Morris10 hours ago

Uncertain For Tuesday Night
Kyle Kuzma10 hours ago

Remains Out Versus Boston
Triston McKenzie10 hours ago

Could Be Out Up To Eight Weeks
Gustav Forsling10 hours ago

Scores Twice Despite Florida Loss
Bradley Beal10 hours ago

Sidelined Again On Tuesday
Nico Hoerner10 hours ago

Cubs, Nico Hoerner Agree On Three-Year Extension
Brady Tkachuk11 hours ago

Logs Two Points In Ottawa Win
New England Patriots11 hours ago

Jerod Mayo To Be Bill Belichick's Successor?
Buffalo Bills11 hours ago

Taylor Rapp Signs One-Year Deal With Bills
Jarrett Stidham11 hours ago

Broncos Think Jarrett Stidham Has Starting Potential
Gardner Minshew11 hours ago

To Compete For Starting Job
Mac Jones11 hours ago

Not Guaranteed To Start In 2023
Samaje Perine11 hours ago

Could Fill In As Starter
Justin Herbert11 hours ago

Chargers Confident They'll Keep Justin Herbert Long Term
Joe Musgrove12 hours ago

Throws In B Game Monday
Michael Brantley12 hours ago

Timeline Moved Back
Jose Altuve12 hours ago

Could Go On 60-Day Injured List
Christopher Morel13 hours ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Ezekiel Elliott13 hours ago

Cowboys Open To Re-Signing Ezekiel Elliott
Rashod Bateman13 hours ago

Will Be Running In Three Weeks
Odell Beckham Jr.13 hours ago

Giants Open To Reunion With Odell Beckham Jr.
Saquon Barkley13 hours ago

Giants Hopeful Of Long-Term Extension With Saquon Barkley
Lamar Jackson13 hours ago

Commanders Won't Pursue Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson13 hours ago

Colts Pursuing Lamar Jackson?
Aaron Rodgers13 hours ago

No Timeline On Aaron Rodgers Trade
Jalen Hurts14 hours ago

Eagles Want To Get Extension Done With Jalen Hurts Soon
Fernando Tatis Jr.14 hours ago

Could Serve As Leadoff Man
Maxi Kleber14 hours ago

Questionable On Monday
Jrue Holiday14 hours ago

Ruled Out Monday
Logan O'Hoppe14 hours ago

Makes Opening Day Roster
Max Stassi14 hours ago

Jared Walsh, Max Stassi Opening On The Injured List
Marcus Morris14 hours ago

Sr. Sitting Out On Monday
Trevor May14 hours ago

Jeurys Familia, Dany Jimenez Options For Saves
Karl-Anthony Towns14 hours ago

To Sit Out On Monday
Triston McKenzie14 hours ago

Undergoes MRI Exam
Tyrese Haliburton14 hours ago

Won't Play On Monday
Myles Turner14 hours ago

Unavailable On Monday
Kyle Wright14 hours ago

Officially Placed On Injured List
Brice Turang14 hours ago

Makes Opening Day Roster
Chad Pinder15 hours ago

Signs Minor-League Deal With Nationals
Reilly Smith15 hours ago

Ruled Out For At Least Three Games
Erik Gudbranson15 hours ago

Won't Return This Season
Todd Gilliland15 hours ago

Impressive At COTA
Ville Husso15 hours ago

Could Be Done For The Season
Ty Gibbs15 hours ago

Finds His Footing At COTA
Robby Fabbri15 hours ago

Likely Finished For The Season
Detroit Lions15 hours ago

Calais Campbell To Meet With Lions
Troy Terry15 hours ago

Sits Out Monday's Game
Chris Buescher15 hours ago

Continues To Shine On Road Courses
Bryan Edwards15 hours ago

Joins Saints
Frank Vatrano15 hours ago

Returns To Ducks Lineup
NASCAR15 hours ago

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Finishes Seventh
DeAndre Hopkins15 hours ago

Deandre Hopkins Granted Permission To Seek Trade
Tage Thompson15 hours ago

A Game-Time Call For Monday
Brandon Aiyuk16 hours ago

49ers Planning To Exercise Brandon Aiyuk's Option
Brock Purdy16 hours ago

Viewed As Starter
Austin Cindric16 hours ago

Has A Solid Day
Lamar Jackson16 hours ago

Requests Trade
Jonas Johansson16 hours ago

Tends Twine Monday In Anaheim
Sergei Bobrovsky16 hours ago

In Goal Monday Against Ottawa
Ilya Sorokin17 hours ago

Starting Monday
John Gibson17 hours ago

Minds The Crease For Ducks Monday
Marc-Andre Fleury17 hours ago

Protects The Crease Versus Seattle
Buddy Hield17 hours ago

Listed As Out For Monday
Jake Allen17 hours ago

Between The Pipes Against Buffalo
Luka Doncic17 hours ago

Available On Monday
Giannis Antetokounmpo17 hours ago

To Sit Out On Monday
De'Aaron Fox17 hours ago

Available On Monday
Joel Embiid18 hours ago

Won't Suit Up Versus Nuggets
James Harden18 hours ago

On Track To Play Monday
Marlon Vera20 hours ago

Has Four-Fight Winning Streak Snapped
Cory Sandhagen20 hours ago

Dominates Striking Department
Yana Santos20 hours ago

Dominated In Decision Loss
Holly Holm20 hours ago

Dominates In Co-Main Event
Austin Lingo20 hours ago

Suffers Submission Loss
Nate Landwehr20 hours ago

Shines With Second-Round Submission Win
Andrea Lee20 hours ago

Suffers Defeat In Close Matchup Saturday
Maycee Barber21 hours ago

Takes Close Matchup On Saturday
Chidi Njokuani21 hours ago

Takes Close Loss In Split-Decision Showing
Albert Duraev21 hours ago

Holds Off Opponent In Tight Split Decision
Mikal Bridges23 hours ago

Goes Off For 44 Points Sunday
William Byron24 hours ago

Rounds Out Top Five At COTA
Ross Chastain24 hours ago

Caught Up To Fourth At COTA On Sunday
Alex Bowman1 day ago

Brings Home Third Place Finish At COTA
Kyle Busch1 day ago

Scrambles Up To Second At Austin
Tyler Reddick1 day ago

Dominates And Wins At COTA
Jordan Taylor3 days ago

Making NASCAR Debut At COTA, Will Start 4th
Austin Cindric3 days ago

Excited To Showcase Speed At COTA This Weekend
Austin Dillon3 days ago

Starts 28th At COTA For Sunday
Ricky Stenhouse Jr3 days ago

. In Middle Of Pack For COTA
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

Rough Patch In Qualifying On Saturday
Kyle Busch3 days ago

Starts Ninth For COTA Race On Sunday
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Could Be A Wildcard On Sunday
Noah Gragson3 days ago

Finds Way To Qualify 10th At COTA
Brad Keselowski3 days ago

A Few Seconds Off the COTA Pace
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Begins 38th For Sunday's Race At COTA
Chase Briscoe3 days ago

Just A Little Off At COTA On Saturday
Cory Sandhagen4 days ago

Can Earn Back-To-Back Victories
Marlon Vera4 days ago

Finds Himself In Main-Event Spotlight Saturday
Yana Santos4 days ago

Looking For Biggest UFC Win Of Her Career
Holly Holm4 days ago

Seeking First Victory Since 2020
Austin Lingo4 days ago

On Verge Of Three-Fight Winning Streak
Nate Landwehr4 days ago

Hoping For Third Straight Strong Performance
Maycee Barber5 days ago

Can Continue Her Flyweight Ascent
Andrea Lee5 days ago

In Need Of Victory To Keep Momentum Going
MMA5 days ago

Manel Kape On The Hunt For Fourth Straight Victory Saturday
Alex Perez5 days ago

Seeking First Victory Since 2020
Albert Duraev5 days ago

Can Rebound With A Victory
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF