Top Five Super Bowl MVP Candidates for Super Bowl LVII

February 12, 2023

Who's going to win the 2023 Super Bowl MVP? Joe Nicely looks at the five candidates who are the most likely to capture the 2023 Super Bowl MVP award on Sunday, February 12th in Super Bowl LVII.

After 18 grueling weeks of the NFL regular season and three tightly-contested playoff rounds, the matchup for Super Bowl LVII is set, as the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs will battle for the Lombardi Trophy in Glendale, Arizona on February 12.

The Super Bowl is football's biggest spectacle and an event that even non-fans can enjoy. Will the Halftime Show be good? What will be the best commercial? For those more interested in placing a few wagers, there's no shortage of options, ranging from who will win the game to whether the opening coin toss will land on heads or tails.

One of the most popular props for the biggest game of the year is who will win the Super Bowl MVP award. In this article, we’ll rank this year's top MVP candidates and discuss why each player could win the Super Bowl's highest individual award. Each player will be listed with their current sportsbook odds to win Super Bowl MVP. Odds below current as of 02/07/23. 

Patrick Mahomes - QB, Kansas City Chiefs

Current Super Bowl MVP Odds: +130

Dating back to when Green Bay Packers quarterback Bart Starr was named the MVP of the first Super Bowl, QBs have long been the favorite to win the coveted award. Of the 56 Super Bowls that have been played, quarterbacks have won the MVP award a staggering 31 times, which is exponentially more than the next closest position (wide receivers have won eight MVPs). So, it makes sense that the QBs in this year's Super Bowl are the current odds-on favorites to take home the Pete Rozelle Trophy.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback already has one Super Bowl MVP award to his credit, taking home the honor thanks to a fourth-quarter comeback that led the Chiefs to a victory over the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV.

Mahomes is a good bet to take home another one this year, as he's put forth yet another superhuman campaign to this point. The 27-year-old led the NFL in passing yards (5,250) and passing TDs (41) during the regular season, leading Kansas City to a 14-3 record and an AFC West title.

Despite suffering a severe high-ankle sprain in the Divisional Round against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Mahomes suited up in the AFC Conference Championship game against the Cincinnati Bengals, leading the Chiefs to a victory and yet another AFC title while passing for 326 yards and two TDs. If Kansas City is victorious over the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII, Mahomes will likely play a crucial role in the win.

Jalen Hurts - QB, Philadelphia Eagles

Current Super Bowl MVP Odds: +125

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is the favorite to earn the Super Bowl MVP on the Philly side of this matchup. It's not surprising, as the third-year pro has been tremendous for the NFC Champions throughout the year.

Hurts was in serious contention to win the NFL's regular-season MVP award before a shoulder injury in Week 15 forced him to miss two of the Eagles' last three regular-season games and, likely, cost him the MVP award. His importance to his team can't be overstated, as Philly has only lost one game with Hurts at the helm this season and now stands just one win away from the Lombardi Trophy.

Completing passes at an impressive 66.5% clip, Hurts has tallied 3,701 passing yards, as well as 22 passing TDs to just five INTs. He's somehow been even more dangerous as a runner, ranking fourth at the QB position with 760 rushing yards. His 13 rushing TDs lead all QBs and stand second in the entire NFL.

He has the ability to dominate games with both his arm and his legs, which gives him multiple avenues to achieve the type of monster statistical output that's needed to win the Super Bowl MVP award.

Travis Kelce - TE, Kansas City Chiefs

Current Super Bowl MVP Odds: +1000

A future Hall of Famer by every metric, Travis Kelce continues to make his case as the best tight end in NFL history. However, he'll likely need a GOAT-type performance against the Eagles to earn Super Bowl MVP consideration, as no tight end in history has ever won the Pete Rozelle Trophy.

If anyone can break that trend, it's Kelce, a player that's continually shattered all expectations at the TE position. The 33-year-old has routinely displayed the ability to dominate games and that's been especially the case in this postseason, as he's reeled in a combined 21 catches for 176 yards and three TDs in Kansas City's two playoff wins.

Kelce would likely need to stay on his herculean pace against the Eagles to earn MVP consideration, due to the position he plays. He is one of the most popular NFL players of his generation, so visibility won't be an issue for MVP voters, though the KC passing attack would need to flow through him in a dominant fashion in order for him to beat out his teammate, Patrick Mahomes, for the MVP trophy.

A.J. Brown - WR, Philadelphia Eagles

Current Super Bowl MVP Odds: +1200

Wide receivers have won eight Super Bowl MVPs, which is second to only the quarterback position, so there is some precedent for a dominant receiver like Philadelphia's A.J. Brown to take home the award. Last year's Super Bowl MVP – L.A. Rams WR Cooper Kupp – hauled in eight catches for 92 yards and two TDs, including the game-winner, and Brown would likely need to produce a similarly-spectacular output to earn consideration this year.

He's certainly capable of it, as the former Tennessee Titan has been downright dominant for stretches over his first Philadelphia campaign thanks to his freakish combination of size and speed. Brown ended the regular season with career highs in receptions (88), receiving yards (1,496), and TDs (11).

Although he's been relatively quiet in Philly's two postseason wins, Brown has displayed game-breaking ability on multiple occasions this season. He's topped 150 receiving yards in a single game three times and recorded multi-touchdown efforts twice in 2022.

DeVonta Smith - WR, Philadelphia Eagles

Current Super Bowl MVP Odds: +2500

While the aforementioned A.J. Brown has been undeniably great in his first campaign in Philly, Devonta Smith's 2022 contributions shouldn't go overlooked.

The former Heisman Trophy winner has lived up to the billing in his second professional season, posting 1,196 receiving yards and seven scores during the regular season. Smith's ceiling and ability to make splash plays are what's so intriguing when it comes to his Super Bowl MVP potential. He posted five games of 100+ receiving yards in 2022 and finished the year 19th in deep targets.

An electrifying player such as Smith could realistically be the game's most valuable player by making just three or four game-breaking plays. He's repeatedly shown a knack for beating coverage deep and reeling in circus catches. Smith's dynamic style led him to win a Heisman Trophy and he's capable of making the types of memorable plays that stick out to the MVP decision-makers.

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