Week 17 Consistency Reports - Start/Sit Decisions

1 year ago by Ben Rolfe

Week 17 is here and it comes with mixed feelings. On one hand this is one of the most thrilling weeks on calendar. All 32 teams are playing in the space of 12 hours and the playoff scenarios could change hundreds or thousands of times on Sunday. However, this is also the end of regular football, pretty much the end of fantasy football, unless you play DFS. Week 17 always brings a time for reflection for fantasy owners, what were my good decisions? Why did I draft that player? How did I get lucky enough to pick him up off the waiver. Hopefully the article below will give you some insight into how players have performed as a whole this season. Starting next week I will be reviewing the year and looking what lessons we can learn. This week is about helping those people with finals this week.

The information I am going to use in this articles comes from FFstatistics.com, founded by the person who used to write this article, Addison Hayes. Here are the links to the main articles last year where Addison introduced his key terms. The three main elements are standard deviation (explained here), calculations of players floors and ceiling (explained here) and then finally the use of the Coefficient of Variation to calculate Consistency Ratings or COR (explained here). This paragraph is going to be present a lot this year for those of you interested in the math behind the numbers below.

Good luck this week for those of you in those championship game and I hope you all have a Merry Christmas and a Happy Holidays!

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Quarterbacks

Rank	Player	Games	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Patrick Mahomes	15	401.7	26.78	7.03	19.75	33.81	0.26	128.79
2	Matt Ryan	15	331.6	22.11	7.75	14.36	29.85	0.35	85.21
3	Ben Roethlisberger	15	323.2	21.55	7.44	14.11	28.98	0.35	83.97
4	Russell Wilson	15	293.6	19.58	5.99	13.59	25.56	0.31	83.59
5	Andrew Luck	15	301.4	20.09	6.73	13.36	26.83	0.33	80.08
6	Philip Rivers	15	270	18	5.42	12.58	23.42	0.3	77.75
7	Cam Newton	14	278.6	19.9	7.01	12.89	26.91	0.35	76.43
8	Aaron Rodgers	15	311.5	20.77	7.77	13	28.54	0.37	76.32
9	Deshaun Watson	15	315.7	21.05	8.98	12.07	30.03	0.43	70.38
10	Baker Mayfield	13	221.1	17	5.46	11.55	22.46	0.32	69.99
11	Kirk Cousins	15	280.2	18.68	7.2	11.48	25.89	0.39	67.13
12	Carson Wentz	11	202.3	18.39	7.02	11.37	25.41	0.38	66.56
13	Alex Smith	10	140	14	4.01	9.99	18.01	0.29	62.92
14	Tom Brady	15	257.7	17.18	6.61	10.57	23.79	0.38	61.85
15	Dak Prescott	15	262.4	17.49	7.14	10.35	24.64	0.41	60.32
16	Eli Manning	15	223.7	14.91	4.92	9.99	19.84	0.33	60.11
17	Joe Flacco	9	139.2	15.47	5.51	9.96	20.98	0.36	58.91
18	Drew Brees	15	303.9	20.26	10.64	9.62	30.89	0.52	58.85
19	CJ Beathard	5	81	16.2	6.25	9.94	22.45	0.39	58.15
20	Jimmy Garoppolo	3	46	15.34	5.76	9.58	21.1	0.38	56.19
21	Ryan Fitzpatrick	8	165.8	20.73	12.47	8.26	33.2	0.6	55.2
22	Andy Dalton	11	174.5	15.87	6.66	9.21	22.52	0.42	53.7
23	Case Keenum	15	204.4	13.63	4.64	8.99	18.27	0.34	53.66
24	Jared Goff	15	288.4	19.22	10.88	8.35	30.1	0.57	53.2
25	Jameis Winston	10	171.9	17.19	8.4	8.78	25.59	0.49	52.34
26	Mitchell Trubisky	13	252.9	19.45	11.65	7.81	31.1	0.6	51.95
27	Nick Mullens	7	104.4	14.91	6.3	8.61	21.22	0.42	50.21
28	Josh Johnson	3	43.6	14.52	6	8.52	20.52	0.41	49.65
29	Derek Carr	15	225.3	15.02	7.49	7.53	22.5	0.5	45.14
30	Matthew Stafford	15	201.7	13.45	6.41	7.04	19.86	0.48	41.65

The table above (and each table in the article) is sorted by players 2018 COR through 16 weeks from largest to smallest. This week will be about navigating the start and sit decisions and finding not just the best players but also the players most likely to play 60 minutes. You ca get away if a player only plays 45 minutes but you need him to absolutely torch the opposition in those 45 minutes. Anything less and you might be in trouble.

There are a lot of names in the top-10 who I expect to play a reasonable amount on Sunday. Cam Newton is obviously injured but all of the other nine could conceivable be on the field the whole time. I might look to avoid names like Baker Mayfield and Deshaun Watson who have tough matchups, but otherwise most of them are good to go. Lower down, Dak Prescott and Drew Brees are the only quarterbacks with everything already locked up. However, Brees is going for the MVP and is facing the defense of a team which seems to be giving up somewhat.

Running Backs

Rank	Player	Games	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Keith Ford	2	13	6.5	0.28	6.22	6.78	0.04	155.88
2	Melvin Gordon	11	261.9	23.81	6.3	17.51	30.1	0.26	113.86
3	Todd Gurley	14	369.1	26.36	8.11	18.26	34.47	0.31	112.11
4	Saquon Barkley	15	360.6	24.04	7.88	16.16	31.92	0.33	97.36
5	Christian McCaffrey	15	376.5	25.1	9.35	15.75	34.45	0.37	92.47
6	Ezekiel Elliott	15	335.2	22.35	8.12	14.22	30.47	0.36	83.83
7	Alvin Kamara	15	348.2	23.21	10.73	12.48	33.95	0.46	73.42
8	James Conner	12	267.6	22.3	10.72	11.58	33.02	0.48	68.68
9	Kareem Hunt	11	231.2	21.02	9.85	11.17	30.87	0.47	65.87
10	Joe Mixon	13	233.7	17.98	7.33	10.65	25.31	0.41	62.08
11	James White	15	261.7	17.45	8.73	8.71	26.18	0.5	52.29
12	David Johnson	15	238.9	15.93	7.35	8.58	23.27	0.46	50.45
13	Alex Collins	10	115.6	11.56	3.5	8.06	15.06	0.3	49.75
14	Marshawn Lynch	6	79	13.17	4.92	8.24	18.09	0.37	48.39
15	Kerryon Johnson	10	142.4	14.24	6.2	8.04	20.44	0.44	46.94
16	Phillip Lindsay	15	222.8	14.85	7.01	7.84	21.87	0.47	46.31
17	Devonta Freeman	2	14.1	7.05	1.34	5.71	8.39	0.19	44.04
18	Dalvin Cook	10	146	14.6	7.73	6.87	22.33	0.53	42.18
19	Chris Carson	13	185.5	14.27	7.35	6.92	21.62	0.52	41.98
20	Leonard Fournette	8	120.4	15.05	9.24	5.81	24.29	0.61	39.56
21	Tarik Cohen	15	228.4	15.23	9.71	5.52	24.94	0.64	39.11
22	Lamar Miller	13	163	12.54	6.4	6.13	18.94	0.51	37.08
23	Aaron Jones	12	173.5	14.46	9.32	5.14	23.78	0.64	36.89
24	Marlon Mack	11	158.3	14.39	10	4.39	24.39	0.7	35.09
25	Kenyan Drake	15	197.7	13.18	8.02	5.16	21.2	0.61	34.84
26	Adrian Peterson	15	194	12.93	7.69	5.24	20.63	0.59	34.67
27	Theo Riddick	13	114.1	8.78	2.98	5.8	11.75	0.34	34.66
28	Mark Ingram	11	138.2	12.56	7.23	5.34	19.79	0.58	34.4
29	Austin Ekeler	13	161	12.38	7.01	5.37	19.4	0.57	34.26
30	Darren Sproles	5	55.4	11.08	5.33	5.75	16.41	0.48	34.1
31	TJ Yeldon	14	177.1	12.65	7.63	5.02	20.28	0.6	33.63
32	Jalen Richard	15	156.8	10.45	4.86	5.6	15.31	0.46	32.96
33	Jordan Howard	15	157.6	10.51	4.93	5.57	15.44	0.47	32.88
34	Jay Ajayi	4	43.4	10.85	5.69	5.16	16.54	0.52	31.55
35	Tevin Coleman	15	181.2	12.08	7.5	4.58	19.58	0.62	31.53
36	Matt Breida	14	164.5	11.75	7.84	3.91	19.59	0.67	29.36
37	Elijah McGuire	7	80.7	11.53	7.71	3.82	19.23	0.67	28.78
38	Sony Michel	12	136.1	11.34	7.54	3.8	18.88	0.66	28.41
39	Nick Chubb	15	192.5	12.83	10.66	2.17	23.5	0.83	28.28
40	Nyheim Hines	15	156	10.4	6.24	4.16	16.64	0.6	27.73
41	Kenneth Dixon	5	43.5	8.7	4.03	4.67	12.73	0.46	27.47
42	Dion Lewis	15	157.4	10.49	6.64	3.86	17.13	0.63	27.08
43	Derrick Henry	15	191.2	12.75	12.07	0.68	24.81	0.95	26.21
44	Peyton Barber	15	146.5	9.77	5.84	3.93	15.6	0.6	26.11
45	Isaiah Crowell	13	142.7	10.98	8.46	2.52	19.44	0.77	25.22
46	Bilal Powell	7	62.3	8.9	4.93	3.97	13.83	0.55	24.97
47	Ito Smith	13	97.7	7.52	3.52	3.99	11.04	0.47	23.55
48	Jaylen Samuels	8	78.3	9.79	7.4	2.39	17.19	0.76	22.73
49	Jeff Wilson	5	47.5	9.5	7.07	2.43	16.57	0.74	22.27
50	Javorius Allen	11	95.7	8.7	6.03	2.67	14.73	0.69	21.26

This week we are navigating a lot at the running back position. Not only do we have the usual injuries but now we have the added issue of teams maybe wanting to keep guys fresh heading into the playoffs. Take the Steelers for example, James Conner seems healthy and has had three weeks off, but how much use he will get could depend on the situation. The Steelers may decide if things start looking good for them that they need another week of recovery behind him for the playoffs. It is a delicate line to thread.

There are a lot of injuries in this list but those players names being here still tells you something. If you see a name like Aaron Jones then you know the opportunity is there for a Green Bay running back to have a solid week contributing to your fantasy team. The person who stands in may not be as good but he has an opportunity and that is what matters.

Wide Receivers

Rank	Player	Games	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Davante Adams	15	327.6	21.84	5.2	16.64	27.04	0.24	113.57
2	Julian Edelman	11	188.4	17.13	3.93	13.19	21.06	0.23	91.72
3	DeAndre Hopkins	15	315.8	21.05	7.58	13.47	28.63	0.36	79.52
4	Antonio Brown	15	323.7	21.58	8.67	12.91	30.25	0.4	75.27
5	Julio Jones	15	304	20.27	7.66	12.6	27.93	0.38	73.87
6	Adam Thielen	15	301.6	20.11	8.13	11.98	28.23	0.4	69.86
7	Odell Beckham Jr	12	223.1	18.59	6.86	11.73	25.45	0.37	69
8	Robert Woods	15	263.1	17.54	6.58	10.96	24.12	0.38	64.26
9	Keenan Allen	14	249.7	17.84	7.03	10.81	24.86	0.39	63.11
10	Michael Thomas	15	313.6	20.91	10.78	10.12	31.69	0.52	61.44
11	JuJu Smith-Schuster	15	282.2	18.81	9.15	9.66	27.97	0.49	57.48
12	TY Hilton	13	230.9	17.76	8.27	9.49	26.03	0.47	55.89
13	AJ Green	9	158.4	17.6	8.17	9.43	25.77	0.46	55.5
14	Mike Evans	15	261.8	17.45	8.22	9.23	25.67	0.47	54.51
15	Stefon Diggs	14	251.6	17.97	9.08	8.89	27.05	0.51	53.53
16	Tyler Lockett	15	205.5	13.7	4.74	8.96	18.44	0.35	53.3
17	Tyreek Hill	15	302.4	20.16	12.38	7.78	32.54	0.61	53
18	Emmanuel Sanders	12	194.1	16.18	7.27	8.9	23.45	0.45	52.15
19	Brandin Cooks	14	221	15.79	7.01	8.78	22.79	0.44	51.35
20	Trey Quinn	2	22.5	11.25	3.32	7.93	14.57	0.3	49.33
21	Tyler Boyd	14	222.1	15.86	7.86	8.01	23.72	0.5	47.89
22	Willie Snead	13	134.9	10.38	3.18	7.2	13.56	0.31	44.26
23	Cooper Kupp	8	135.1	16.89	10.49	6.4	27.38	0.62	44.07
24	Will Fuller	7	108.3	15.47	8.55	6.92	24.02	0.55	43.46
25	Kenny Golladay	15	207.1	13.81	7.32	6.49	21.12	0.53	39.86
26	Geronimo Allison	5	62.3	12.46	5.98	6.48	18.44	0.48	38.42
27	Alshon Jeffery	12	171.4	14.28	8.61	5.68	22.89	0.6	37.99
28	Curtis Samuel	11	123.6	11.24	4.93	6.31	16.16	0.44	36.86
29	Josh Gordon	12	141.7	11.81	5.61	6.2	17.42	0.48	36.66
30	Jarvis Landry	15	198.4	13.23	7.7	5.53	20.93	0.58	35.95
31	Marvin Jones	9	116.8	12.98	7.51	5.47	20.49	0.58	35.4
32	Brandon LaFell	4	37.5	9.38	3.38	5.99	12.76	0.36	35.35
33	Jamison Crowder	8	81.1	10.14	4.08	6.06	14.21	0.4	35.34
34	Cameron Meredith	3	26.4	8.8	3.01	5.79	11.81	0.34	34.51
35	Dede Westbrook	15	173.6	11.57	6.05	5.52	17.63	0.52	33.7
36	Larry Fitzgerald	15	168.8	11.25	5.64	5.61	16.9	0.5	33.69
37	Allen Robinson	13	159.3	12.25	7.1	5.15	19.36	0.58	33.39
38	Mohamed Sanu	15	162	10.8	5.21	5.59	16.01	0.48	33.21
39	Adam Humphries	15	181.1	12.07	6.9	5.17	18.97	0.57	33.2
40	DeSean Jackson	12	154.3	12.86	8.18	4.68	21.04	0.64	33.07
41	Christian Kirk	12	126.5	10.54	5.35	5.19	15.89	0.51	31.3
42	Sterling Shepard	15	171.9	11.46	6.72	4.74	18.18	0.59	31
43	Golden Tate	14	175.6	12.54	8.59	3.95	21.13	0.68	30.86
44	Amari Cooper	14	211.3	15.09	14.65	0.45	29.74	0.97	30.65
45	Albert Wilson	7	90.7	12.96	9.55	3.41	22.5	0.74	30.55
46	Paul Richardson	7	59.1	8.44	3.23	5.21	11.67	0.38	30.52
47	Keith Kirkwood	7	45.9	6.56	1.84	4.72	8.4	0.28	29.95
48	Robby Anderson	13	162	12.46	8.94	3.52	21.41	0.72	29.82
49	Calvin Ridley	15	195.6	13.04	10.43	2.61	23.47	0.8	29.35
50	Demaryius Thomas	15	157.7	10.51	5.9	4.61	16.41	0.56	29.25

A lot pf players in this list are still active heading into this week. Of course there is the question of who might get pulled but generally this is a case of start your guys and live with it. The thing to be careful of it who receivers have as their quarterback. For example the Panthers have Kyle Allen starting in New Orleans. The Saints may end up sitting players but Allen's presence makes it very difficult to trust Curtis Samuel or DJ Moore.

Tight Ends

Rank	Player	Games	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Travis Kelce	15	285.4	19.03	9.91	9.12	28.93	0.52	55.57
2	Zach Ertz	15	277.8	18.52	10.49	8.03	29.01	0.57	51.22
3	George Kittle	15	228.8	15.25	7.76	7.49	23.02	0.51	45.22
4	Eric Ebron	15	207	13.8	8.13	5.67	21.93	0.59	37.21
5	Hakeem Valles	2	3.1	1.55	0.07	1.48	1.62	0.05	35.53
6	OJ Howard	10	124.5	12.45	6.99	5.46	19.44	0.56	34.62
7	Jordan Reed	12	123.8	10.32	4.42	5.9	14.73	0.43	34.42
8	Jack Doyle	6	62.5	10.42	5.33	5.09	15.75	0.51	30.78
9	Jared Cook	15	187.8	12.52	8.92	3.6	21.44	0.71	30.1
10	Tyler Eifert	4	38.9	9.73	4.65	5.07	14.38	0.48	30.05
11	Evan Engram	10	103.6	10.36	5.48	4.88	15.84	0.53	29.96
12	Vance McDonald	14	128.1	9.15	4.96	4.19	14.11	0.54	26.02
13	Rob Gronkowski	12	128.8	10.73	7.93	2.8	18.66	0.74	25.26
14	Lee Smith	6	35.3	5.88	1.79	4.09	7.68	0.3	25.18
15	Austin Hooper	15	150.3	10.02	6.79	3.23	16.81	0.68	24.81
16	Greg Olsen	9	83.1	9.23	5.66	3.58	14.89	0.61	24.3
17	David Njoku	15	136.7	9.11	5.98	3.13	15.09	0.66	23
18	Kyle Rudolph	15	148.5	9.9	7.52	2.38	17.42	0.76	22.93
19	Geoff Swaim	8	56.2	7.03	3.11	3.92	10.13	0.44	22.92
20	Chris Herndon	13	114.4	8.8	5.77	3.03	14.57	0.66	22.22
21	Jimmy Graham	15	125.5	8.37	5.23	3.14	13.6	0.63	21.75
22	Trey Burton	15	140.6	9.37	7.3	2.07	16.67	0.78	21.41
23	Mark Andrews	14	97.8	6.99	3.61	3.38	10.59	0.52	20.52
24	CJ Uzomah	15	103.3	6.89	4.05	2.84	10.94	0.59	18.6
25	Anthony Firkser	7	45.7	6.53	3.77	2.76	10.3	0.58	17.83
26	Will Dissly	4	35.6	8.9	8.98	-0.08	17.88	1.01	17.72
27	Ian Thomas	9	64.2	7.13	5.43	1.7	12.56	0.76	16.5
28	Ben Watson	12	82.1	6.84	5.15	1.69	12	0.75	15.92
29	Jake Butt	3	16.5	5.5	3.04	2.46	8.54	0.55	15.44
30	Cameron Brate	14	90	6.43	4.75	1.68	11.18	0.74	15.12

You may have gathered that this position drives me nuts for fantasy football. It is is almost impossible to trust anyone but the very best, and even then they let you down. Of the players still active the top six (Kelce, Ertz, Kittle, Ebron, Cook and Engram) are now must-starts when on the field. Those are the six, with Gronkowski right there as well, that you just start and deal with the outcome. If you sit any of those guys then you are getting too cute, and if it does not work out for you then I assure that you will kick yourself for it Monday morning.