RADIO
At the risk of beating a dead horse, I'd like to address NFL disasters that were easy to see coming. While this topic deserves a full-blown article, I have just two paragraphs to fit this in. Because of that limit, I will try to be brief in my arguments. I will also write a more in-depth article on this topic sometime soon if Rotoballer and my readers are interested.
The NFC South is loaded with disasters that many of us saw coming. First amongst them is the Falcons, whom I’ve trashed for years. To put it briefly, Atlanta has the easiest schedule in the NFL (per Sharp Analysis), yet their offense ranks 26th in points and 19th in yards. Arthur Smith is an offensive coach who barely auditioned Desmond Ridder in 2022, doesn’t score points, and doesn’t use his top weapons. It’s no mystery why Atlanta sits third in the NFL’s worst division.
While Arthur Smith will always be the bane of my existence, the Saints' routinely questionable moves make his job easier. New Orleans' leadership has routinely shown an inability to assess draft pick value and player quality. Their decision to deal multiple firsts for both Marcus Davenport and Trevor Penning proves that. The signing of Derek Carr and the hiring of Dennis Allen were two more moves for mediocrity. Paying to be .500 is an intolerable strategy.
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Casual IDP Streamers and Fades
Stream: Taron Johnson, DB, Buffalo Bills
This year, Taron Johnson plays 93.7% of his snaps in the box or the slot. That should put him against the Charger's top two offensive weapons (Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen) a lot this week. Allen, in particular, is a strong matchup since he takes 58.2% of his snaps in the slot.
Helping matters even more is the fact the Chargers' defense is allowing the fifth-most points per game, and their current quarterback (Easton Stick) looked horrendous in his first start last week. While it's a small sample size, Stick leads the NFL in Turnover Worth Play percentage amongst passers with more than ten snaps. Consider that Stick has one fewer Turnover Worthy Play than Kenny Pickett, who has played 11 more games.
Four reps of Taron Johnson 1-on-1 vs CeeDee Lamb#Bills #BillsMafia #GoBills
— Anthony Cover 1 (@Pro__Ant) December 19, 2023
Stream: Bryce Huff, DL, New York Jets
Perhaps Jacoby Brissett has finally figured out what it takes to be a premium starting quarterback in the NFL. After 48 starts and eight seasons under his belt, it's unlikely. What's more likely is his performance against the Rams was the kind of hot streak that we occasionally see when a backup steps in for a struggling starter.
As an NFL starter, Brissett averages 2.8 sacks per game. That rate ranks ninth highest amongst NFL teams this year. The Commanders are giving up the third-most sacks per game this season, too, and their pass blockers allow 16.4 quarterback pressures per game. Now they face a Jets pass rush that generates pressure at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL.
Gang Green's leader in Pass Rush Win Rate, sacks, and quarterback hurries is Bryce Huff. He is second on the team in QB hits as well. Huff is rostered in just 0.2% of IDP leagues despite these sparkling stats. While his production is extremely sack-dependent, this matchup is a good one to stream him in.
Fade: De’Vondre Campbell, LB, Green Bay Packers
Campbell already earned my “LB Disappointments” designation in a previous edition of my IDP Weekly Rankings. Despite strong playing time, he’s registered just one game with six or more tackles in his past seven contests. That’s concerning, given he derives nearly all of his fantasy production from tackles.
Even more concerning is the fact Campbell has publicly aired dirty laundry against the team. He recently posted on social media that he will no longer play through injuries and will only give to others what they give back to him. That is a paraphrase, but the general sentiment is that Campbell feels disrespected by his organization. Publicly speaking on things like this rarely lead to increased production, especially on defense.
Fade: Quincy Williams, LB, New York Jets
Williams is another name that is hard to fade. However, his production has been sporadic of late. He’s averaging a steady seven fantasy points per game over his past four games, which is fine. However, that kind of scoring is not what you look for from an LB1 or even an LB2 in the fantasy playoffs, which is what he’s currently treated as.
This week the Jets face a Commanders team with an unpredictable identity. The team has been the highest-volume pass offense in the NFL with Sam Howell under center. However, Howell doesn’t look like the starter this week and Ron Rivera has repeatedly said he wants to establish the run… which could be hard if Brian Robinson remains out. Plus, the team doesn't trust Antonio Gibson and Chris Rodriguez Jr. is unestablished.
With the targets for Washington’s weapons being sporadic and the run game unreliable, it is hard to predict or trust what the Commanders will do against a very strong Jets defense. That is especially true if Brissett really is the starter. That doubt is enough to drop Williams into our LB3 tier this week.
Premium/Deep League Streamers and Fades
Stream: Markquese Bell, LB, Dallas Cowboys
Bell is a converted safety. So, it comes as no surprise that he is strong in coverage. He has played seven contests against offenses that target the tight end and running back positions ten or more times per game. In those matchups, he averages seven tackles per game while collecting three PDs and a forced turnover.
While Miami isn't primarily a check-down team, they regularly involve their running backs in the passing game. In six games where Devon Achane has 10% or more of the snaps, the Dolphins average exactly ten targets to their running backs and tight ends. Better yet, 84% of those targets come within five yards of the line of scrimmage and 48% are up the middle, putting them in Bell's range.
Stream: Ji’Ayir Brown, DB, San Francisco 49ers
Brown's usage as a starter for the 49ers has varied, with opportunities in the box mixed into a heavy role at high safety. However, he saw the most snaps in the box he has all season against Arizona last week. That's promising, given that Lamar Jackson should demand similar treatment to Kyler Murray.
The 49ers’ rookie safety is just the 81st most rostered DB in fantasy, but his matchup and profile are much stronger than that. Consider him a viable DB3 streamer against Lamar and the Ravens.
PICKED! Ji'Ayir Brown gets the the INT in the end zone 😤
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/1nkfQxWHFQ
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 19, 2023
Fade: Keisan Nixon, DB, Green Bay Packers
Nixon is the 34th most rostered DB in fantasy, and it's easy to see why many consider him a strong start against the Panthers. Carolina has been pass-heavy all season, and there was a period where Adam Theilen was averaging double-digit targets from the slot. This matchup isn't as strong as it once was, though.
Since Carolina changed head coaches, they have gone from the second-highest-volume pass offense in the NFL to the tenth-lowest-volume. Theilen's participation has dropped accordingly. The former Viking has just 23 total targets over his past four games, which is not the volume you seek when streaming an opposing corner. Nixon has also been extremely turnover-dependent recently, averaging just 2.3 tackles over his past six games.
Fade: Zaven Collins, DL/LB, Arizona Cardinals
This is another dead horse I don’t like to beat, but I have to at this point. Collins is currently the 36th most rostered and the 39th most-started DL in fantasy. However, he averages the 91st most points amongst all DLs in my Standard Scoring system. He has exactly one game with more than five fantasy points, and that was thanks to an interception in Week 1.
While the Bears are a decent matchup for a pass rusher, Collins isn’t a true pass rusher. He averages half the pass rush snaps that your average edge receives each week because he’s used as a hybrid who offers run support. Unfortunately, he doesn’t collect many tackles in that role. So, it’s hard to trust Collins in even the best matchups.
Defenders Worth Adding
K.J. Britt, LB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Britt has stepped in for Devin White over the past two games and is averaging a solid 7.5 fantasy points per game. If the rumors are true that White is on the outs with the organization, his stand-in could become a full-time replacement. That role is worth a speculative add in deep leagues.
Britt is just the 102nd most-rostered LB in fantasy.
Bryce Huff, DL, New York Jets
If you scroll up, you'll see why you should consider streaming Huff this week. Those reasons all apply to why you should add him in redraft and dynasty leagues, too.
How is he the 150th most rostered DL in IDP leagues? He has strong value in sack-premium scoring, at the least.
Stephon Gilmore, DB, Dallas Cowboys
Advanced metrics suggest Gilmore is the strongest corner of Dallas' current starters, but he doesn't get the picks that Daron Bland does, so he is a lower priority. Still, Gilmore faces a high-volume Dolphins attack this week. The veteran has at least one PD in nine games this year and five contests with five or more tackles. He's a solid streaming option in deep IDP leagues or formats that require you to start multiple CBs.
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