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RotoBaller break down the NBA's pretenders and contenders teams for 2024 Week 15. Who are the this week's teams? Lance Roberson gives you his analysis.
With the All-Star game approaching and the annual MVP discussion heating up, the NBA is at its halfway point.
While current playoff seedings slightly represent the league's hierarchy, a few teams come to mind when indicating which team's regular season success potentially translates to playoff wins and who's solely a regular season product and not a legitimate NBA Finals contender.
As the early-season honeymoon stage fades and the ramp-up to the playoff race heats up, RotoBaller will provide you with a weekly update on who we see as the contenders and pretenders of the league. Without further ado, here are the Week 15 NBA contenders and pretenders.
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Week 15's Pretenders
Dallas Mavericks
- Record: 26-21
- Conference Standing: 7th in Western Conference
At this point in Luka Doncic's career, I figured you couldn't play word association involving the phrase "Play-In tournament" and have the four-time All-NBA talent coincide, unfortunately, for all the wonder of No.77, the Dallas Mavericks as a whole, can't carry their weight. There are a plethora of reasons as to why the Mavericks find themselves in pretender status. To save time, here are three: Kyrie Irving missing 41 percent of the season due to various injuries, the role players not performing up to par, and the most egregious basketball act, hinging on a rookie center to anchor an NBA defense.
Doncic scored 73 points against the Atlanta Hawks, not out of trying to break a record but out of necessity. Dallas desperately needed No.77 to save their ass yet again. The 148-143 score indicated how close the Mavericks were to pulling a Karl-Anthony Towns, putting up a record stat only to lose embarrassingly. Mavericks head coach Jason Kidd isn't safe from criticism, but he can't control the front office's decisions and utilize telekinesis to convert the awful shots from Grant Williams.
Luka Doncic scored 73 points on Friday vs the Hawks.
That is the most points in a game since Kobe Bryant had 81 in 2006. pic.twitter.com/kv4fb5CM30
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 27, 2024
Dallas has signature wins, including the Christmas Day victory over the Phoenix Suns, the victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves, and besting the New York Knicks without Luka Doncic. However, Dallas also loses in shameful ways, such as wetting the bed against a Memphis Grizzlies team with three starters not suited up for action or losing to the Utah Jazz 127-90. Taking Dallas seriously is as challenging as guarding Nikola Jokic; no matter which angle you take, you will look stupid.
Orlando Magic
- Record: 24-23
- Conference Standing: 8th in Eastern Conference
The Orlando Magic are not pretenders due to incompetence; instead, they are decent too early. Starting 13-5 instantly made the Magic a feel-good story in a league full of blossoming young stars. However, the magic disappeared in December, when Orlando went 6-8, mainly due to Franz Wagner missing eight games as a result of an ankle sprain. While Wagner remained sidelined, reigning Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero showcased why he's not ready to lead a contender.
Firstly, Banchero's playmaking abilities leave a lot of meat on the bone, evidenced by his 1.57 assists-to-turnover ratio. Unless Banchero immediately makes a move, the possession typically ends negatively. Moreover, the longer he dribbles, the uglier the offense turns. According to Basketball Reference, Banchero recorded 70 "bad pass" turnovers, only nine away from last season's total. Unsurprisingly, Orlando struggled without younger brother Wagner to relieve Banchero's ball-handling duties.
Ironically, the Magic's defense is rather elite in light of their fourth-ranked defensive rating. The lengthy, athletic frontcourt makes up for the smaller backcourt players of Orlando's depth chart. However, the inefficient offense of Banchero and an inexperienced backcourt, which lacks size, paint the picture of a cute story but a premature playoff team.
Week 15's Contenders
Oklahoma City Thunder
- Record: 32-15
- Conference Standing: 3rd in Western Conference
It took me a while, but I finally consider the Oklahoma City Thunder a contender. Aside from Oklahoma City's 11-7 record against teams above the .500 mark, it also sits atop the competitive Western Conference with a 9.1 net rating over the 14 other franchises. The Thunder's current trajectory suggests they make history or repeat it.
Leading the surprisingly elite Thunder squad, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander plays with an ode to the old school. Attempting only three shots from distance per game, Gilgeous-Alexander spends the majority of possessions within three feet of the basket, with 27 percent of his shot attempts coming near the restricted area. Defenses struggle to contain the cat-like movements of the Tornto-born talent. When I say cat, I'm referring to quickness and how his body shapes into any position necessary to bust or slip through opposing defenders. Similar to when a large cat finds a way to fit into a smaller box or container.
Aside from Gilgeous-Alexander's unique playstyle, he seldom coughs up the ball despite pulling off such sneakily acrobatic feats. Registering a career-high 8.2 turnover percentage, Gilgeous-Alexander consistently gets to his spots and finds teammates, amazingly executing at an MVP-candidate level without relieving defenders.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with an ABSURD and-1 🤯
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) January 24, 2024
We could continue to gush over Gilegous-Alexander's 2023-2024 campaign, but Oklahoma City has another unique player responsible for its contender status, and I'm sure you have places to be today.
Chet Holmgren is either the Rookie of the Year winner or runner-up and anchors a top-five defense for the second-best team in the league. Such a situation in which a rookie helps his team catapult into elite company hasn't occurred since Tim Duncan. Rejecting 2.5 blocks per game, seemingly built with wires, going by his extra-slim frame, Holmgren bends minds as the big men of yesteryear look at the rookie the same way elderly people see kids with neon-colored hair.
Amazingly, Holmgren averages a higher three-point percentage (37) than the aforementioned Gilgeous-Alexander. It's astonishing how Holmgren attacks and defends opponents who seemingly should get the better of the skinnier-framed center. For a player coming off such a devastating injury, hesitancy doesn't appear in his game.
The Thunder, without utilizing their hoard of draft picks, find themselves as a legitimate contender.
Boston Celtics
- Record: 36-11
- Conference Standing: 1st in Eastern Conference
For consecutive seasons, the Boston Celtics floundered in the postseason while seemingly in a dominant position. However, in 2022, their loss to the Golden State Warriors at least occurred during the NBA Finals. However their defeat at the hands of rival Miami Heat left a hideous rash in the Boston community - a rash which the team couldn't shake until the Celtics front office executed a facelift of the roster. Trading for championship guard Jrue Holiday and taking a risk on Kristaps Porzingis to allow a more stretched floor for Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to operate.
Although the Celtics bench has a few holes, the first seven players in the game allot for an 8.8 net rating across the Eastern Conference. Aside from the embarrassing 135-102 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks on January 11, the Celtics handled business in the Eastern Conference. For example, Boston dismantled the Heat 143-110. The playoff-punished Celtics hold the second-best offensive and third-ranked defensive ratings, ironically, the same rankings held last season.
Tatum's three-point shooting is a tad bit better, with some thanks to the newer roster construction. Tatum's All-NBA teammate, Brown, is also experiencing a better shooting percentage from deep. Despite lower scoring averages from the Celtics star talent, the team is just as potent, courtesy of a well-constructed roster.
Without prematurely crowning the Boston Celtics, we must acknowledge the Celtics fumbling against the Nuggets in a playoff feel 102-100 score. Specifically, Tatum smoked a laughingly easy attempt at the rim in clutch time. However, despite losing a close game to the reigning champions, such a loss shouldn't condemn a team itching for a return to the Finals.
Tatum drives in for the dunk and the Boston crowd erupts!
Celtics lead 111-103 late in the 4Q.
Pelicans-Celtics | Live on the NBA App
📲 https://t.co/dk7UUelVa4 pic.twitter.com/hjNy54LHvs— NBA (@NBA) January 30, 2024
Despite the narrative of Boston choking in big games, the clutch stats support the team. In clutch time, the Celtics hold a 14-8 record, with an astounding 23 net rating, second to only the Nuggets. No matter what you think of the Celtics, you must admire their resiliency and the fact they saw egg on their face and did something about it instead of doubling down. I'm sure we'll see them playing well into May.
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