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Week 12 Matchups - Fantasy Football Game Breakdowns (Part 1)


Welcome to our Week 12 matchups analysis and starts/sits column for fantasy football. We'll be covering every matchup from every Sunday game to help you make the best decisions for your fantasy lineups. We'll also be updating this as injury reports come in so check back often.

This article will cover the early slate of games, beginning at 1 PM ET on Sunday. Also, check out our late game matchups analysis and our MNF matchups analysis.

Check back here each week to get advice for your toughest start/sit decisions and take a look at our consensus rankings each week. Find me on Twitter @ChrisMangano for more insight and help to your start/sit questions.

Editor's Note: Get any rest-of-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive DFS Tools, Lineup Optimizer and Premium DFS Research through the Super Bowl. Sign Up Now!

 

Matchups Analysis - 1:00 PM ET Games

The early slate has just seven games this week as six teams play on Thursday and two teams are on bye. Set those lineups in time by analyzing each matchup below to gain the best advantage.

 

Browns at Bengals

Matchups We Love:

Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE)
Mayfield is coming off a 216 yard, three touchdown, zero interception performance against the Falcons before the team's Week 11 bye, and now gets the friendliest pass defense in the league. On the year the Bengals are allowing 306 yards and two touchdowns per game to quarterbacks. Mayfield is a safe streaming option this week in a great matchup.

Nick Chubb (RB, CLE) / Duke Johnson (RB, CLE)
In the four games since Carlos Hyde was traded, Chubb has 18, 18, 20 and 22 carries and has at least 75 scrimmage yards in all four. Coming off a monster 199 yard, two touchdown game against a terrible Falcons run defense, he gets a chance to continue his momentum against a Bengals defense allowing 5.13 yards per carry and over 120 yards per game. Chubb is a top-10 option at the position this week. Johnson, meanwhile, has 13 catches over the last two games and has scored in each, and should have plenty of opportunity against a Bengals defense allowing 5.8 receptions per game and just under 60 yards. He is an upside flex play in PPR formats.

Jarvis Landry (WR, CLE)
Landry continues to be a target machine as he has 102 on the year, but he's caught just 56 passes for a pitiful 582 yards while scoring only two touchdowns. We've seen him disappoint in great matchups before, but the Bengals allow the eighth most receptions to receivers and just under 200 yards. Landry is a safe start but lacks the big time upside.

David Njoku (TE, CLE)
Over the last four games, Njoku has four catches, zero catches, four catches, and one catch. He's been a mixed bag but should put up solid numbers against a Bengals defense allowing the fourth most receptions to tight ends and 65 yards per game. With Kelce on bye and O.J. Howard out for the season, Njoku is a fringe TE1 play.

A.J. Green (WR, CIN) / Tyler Boyd (WR, CIN)
A.J. Green looks ready to return after missing two weeks with a toe injury, and that is a welcome sight for players who have started Boyd the last two weeks. In the two games without Green, Boyd has just seven total catches and 136 total yards. Both are in a great spot this week as the Browns allow the fifth most receptions and 185 yards per game. Green is a must-start if he plays, while Boyd is a WR2 start.

C.J. Uzomah (TE, CIN)
Despite the return of A.J. Green, Uzomah still has appeal as a streaming option against a Browns defense allowing the second most catches to tight ends and over 60 yards per game. While his target share may see a slight drop, the matchup is good enough to keep him fantasy relevant.

Matchups We Hate:

None

Other Matchups:

Andy Dalton (QB, CIN)
Dalton has only thrown for more than 250 yards once over the last six games and has just nine total touchdowns over that span. The Browns do give up lots of yards, over 300 per game, but just barely more than one touchdown. The return of A.J. Green helps, but Dalton can't be considered more than a high-end QB2 play.

Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)
Mixon's usage of late is a little concerning as he has attempted 11, 13, 21, 11, and 12 carries over the last five games. With the Bengals offense reverting to its 2017 form the opportunity just hasn't been there. Still, he should remain a solid option against a Browns unit giving up 4.6 yards per carry and 110 yards per game. He is a fringe RB1 start.

 

49ers at Buccaneers

Matchups We Love:

Nick Mullens (QB, SF)
After his impressive NFL debut against the Raiders, Mullens could turn 39 attempts into just 250 yards and one touchdown versus the Giants on Monday night. He gets a fantastic matchup this week as the Buccaneers allow just under 300 yards per game and more than two touchdowns to opposing passers. He comes with plenty of risks, but he is a viable streaming option in deeper leagues.

Marquise Goodwin (WR, SF) / Kendrick Bourne (WR, SF)
Goodwin had just four targets in Week 10, fewest of any 49ers receivers, but led all receivers in yards with 56. Bourne led the receivers with seven targets catching four for a measly 33 yards. The matchup is good as the Buccaneers give up the seventh most receptions to wideouts. Goodwin has more upside as a flex start, while Bourne is a risky floor play.

George Kittle (TE, SF)
In the two games with Nick Mullens, Kittle leads the 49ers with 14 targets, 13 receptions, and 191 yards. He also has one score over that stretch. He gets a great matchup as the Bucs allow the eighth most receptions and the most yards to tight ends. He is a top-2 option at the position this week and a must-start.

Jameis Winston (QB, TAM)
After Ryan Fitzpatrick struggled in the first half in Week 11, the Bucs turned back to Winston, and he will once again take over starting duties. He has a massive ceiling against a 49ers team giving up 260 yards and more than two touchdowns, but is risky especially in leagues that penalize turnovers heavily. Still, his ceiling keeps him in the QB1 discussion.

Matchups We Hate:

Peyton Barber (RB, TAM)
Barber is coming off his best game of the season, an 18 carry, 106 yards, one touchdown game. He likely won't be able to repeat that, however, against a 49ers team allowing just 3.9 yards per carry and only 81 yards per game. He can be viewed as a touchdown-dependent RB3.

Mike Evans (WR, TAM) / DeSean Jackson (WR, TAM) / Chris Godwin (WR, TAM) / Adam Humphries (WR, TAM)
In the three games Winston has started and finished this year, Evans leads the team with 29 targets while Jackson, Godwin, and Humphries have 22 each. The 49ers have a tough secondary, allowing the fifth fewest receptions to receivers. Evans remains a WR1 start, while Jackson and Godwin are boom/bust WR3 plays. Humphries is a risky flex start.

Other Matchups:

Matt Breida (RB, SF)
Looking fully healthy, and with the backfield almost completely to himself, Breida turned 20 touches into 134 yards and two scores against the Giants before the team's bye. The Bucs allow just 4.1 yards per carry and only 86 yards per game, but do allow almost six receptions. Getting the bulk of the work keeps Brieda in the RB2 discussion.

Cameron Brate (TE, TAM)
With O.J. Howard surprisingly headed to I.R., Brate will now take over as the lead tight end. Jameis Winston tends to target tight ends more than Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Howard vacates 11% of the targets. Brate is not as good as Howard, but he should get the volume to remain a fringe TE1 for the rest of the season.

 

Jaguars at Bills

Matchups We Love:

None

Matchups We Hate:

Blake Bortles (QB, JAC)
Bortles attempted only 18 passes and threw for just 104 yards, with no touchdowns as the Jaguars blew a 16 point lead to the Steelers in Week 11. This is shaping up to be another dud, as the Bills underrated defense is holding opposing quarterbacks to just 216 yards and one touchdown. The Jaguars will likely try to lean on the run game with Leonard Fournette as well. Bortles is not worth a start in any format.

James O'Shaughnessy (TE, JAC)
Over the last three games, O'Shaughnessy ranks fourth on the team in targets but has just six catches for 50 yards. In a tough matchup against a Bills defense giving up less than four catches per game to tight-ends, he is better left on benches this week.

Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
Allen is set to return after missing the last five weeks with an elbow injury. In his last two starts, he attempted just 19 and 17 passes and didn't throw for more than 84 yards in either. He can't be trusted especially against this Jacksonville unit. He is not startable in any format.

LeSean McCoy (RB, BUF)
McCoy is coming off his best game of the season, a 26 carry, 113 yards, two touchdown game. He'll be hard-pressed to duplicate that against a Jaguars defense holding running backs to just 3.9 yards per carry and four receptions per game. He can't be considered more than a low-end RB2 at best.

Zay Jones (WR, BUF), Kelvin Benjamin (WR, BUF)
In six games with Josh Allen, Jones had a stat line of 16/194/1 while Benjamin sported a 10/146/1 line. Neither can be trusted at this point especially against a Jaguars secondary allowing the seventh-fewest receptions and just 143 yards to receivers. They are not startable.

Other Matchups:

Leonard Fournette (RB, JAC)
Since returning from his hamstring injury, Fournette has been an absolute workhorse, handling 59 touches. He's also scored three times. The Jaguars should continue to lean on him in a game that projects to be a defensive struggle. The Bills are allowing just 4.2 yards per carry and 83 yards on the ground, but with the volume, Fournette is getting he is a weekly must-start.

Donte Moncrief (WR, JAC) / Dede Westbrook (WR, JAC)
Over the last three games, Moncrief and Westbrook are tied with eight catches and one touchdown apiece, but Moncrief has 163 yards to Westbrook's 60. The Bills are middle-of-the-pack against receivers, but the Jaguars low volume attack limits the ceiling of either player. Moncrief is a WR3 while Westbrook is a low-end flex.

 

Raiders at Ravens

Matchups We Love:

Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)
Jackson made his NFL debut in replace of the injured Joe Flacco and ran the ball 27 times for 117 yards while attempting just 19 passes for 150 yards with one interception. It's unlikely the Ravens will continue to let him run the ball that much, but he draws another soft matchup against a Raiders defense allowing 246 yards and more than two touchdowns per game. He is a viable streaming option this week with a relatively safe floor.

Gus Edwards (RB, BAL) / Alex Collins (RB, BAL)
A surprise to everyone, Edwards led the Ravens backfield in Week 11 with 17 carries, 115 yards, and one touchdown. Collins managed just seven carries and 18 yards but did also find the end zone. All indications are Edwards will operate as the lead back now, but no one can be certain. The matchup is fantastic as the Raiders give up 5.1 yards per carry and the most rushing yards in the league. Both can be considered upside RB3 plays.

Matchups We Hate:

Derek Carr (QB, OAK)
Carr hasn't thrown for more than 268 yards in six straight games and has gone scoreless in three of them. He'll be facing off against a tough Ravens defense that has held opposing quarterbacks to just 220 yards and one touchdown per game. Carr is a risky start in any format.

Doug Martin (RB, OAK) / Jalen Richard (RB, OAK) / Deandre Washington (RB, OAK)
Martin looked good running the ball on Sunday, turning 10 first half carries into 52 yards. Unfortunately, he suffered an ankle injury and did not play in the second half. Richard and Washington split the work the rest of the way, but Richard looked the better of the two totaling 93 yards on 14 touches. Regardless of how this plays out, it is a tough spot as the Ravens defense holds running backs to just 3.4 yards per carry and 69 yards per game. It's best to avoid this backfield if possible.

Brandon LaFell (WR, OAK) / Seth Roberts (WR, OAK) / Marcell Ateman (WR, OAK)
With Jordy Nelson out in Week 11, the Raiders target breakdown was Roberts 6, Ateman 7, and LaFell 3. No receiver had more than 50 yards, and facing a Ravens secondary holding wideouts to the eighth-fewest receptions and second fewest yards, none of the receivers can be considered startable.

Michael Crabtree (WR, BAL) / John Brown (WR, BAL) / Willie Snead (WR, BAL)
With Lamar Jackson under center, the Ravens target breakdown was Snead 8, Crabtree 3, and Brown 1. The Raiders underrated secondary is holding receivers to the fewest receptions per game and the eighth-fewest yards. Snead can be considered a flex start since Jackson targeted him so much, but both Crabtree and Brown should be left on benches.

Other Matchups:

Jared Cook (TE, OAK)
Cook has 15 targets over the last two games but has converted them into just seven catches for 83 yards, though he does have a score. The Ravens allow the 10th most receptions to tight ends and 60 yards per game, so opportunity should be there. He remains a TE1 start.

Nick Boyle (TE, BAL)
Boyle was second behind Willie Snead with four targets in Lamar Jackson's first start, and caught all four but had just 36 yards. The Raiders are just middle-of-the-pack against tight ends which keeps Doyle in the TE2/streaming discussion this week.

 

Seahawks at Panthers

Matchups We Love:

Russell Wilson (QB, SEA)
Wilson has thrown two or more touchdowns in every game but one this season, and has five three-touchdown games. While the yardage hasn't been there, his touchdown rate and recent running have kept him in the QB1 territory. He gets a fine matchup this week against a Panthers defense allowing 260 yards and more than two touchdowns per game. Wilson remains a QB1 start.

Matchups We Hate:

Greg Olsen (TE, CAR)
Since returning from injury in Week 6, Olsen has caught a touchdown in four of six games but has only topped 60 yards once. He's no longer the elite must-start player, and he gets a tough matchup this week against a Seahawks defense holding opposing tight ends to just three catches and 35 yards. He is too good to bench but you should temper expectations.

Other Matchups:

Chris Carson (RB, SEA) / Rashaad Penny (RB, SEA)
Carson returned from his one-week injury and led the Seahawks backfield with 17 carries, 83 yards, and a score. Penny had just eight carries while Mike Davis had four and two receptions. Carson is really the only playable option of the bunch at the moment and will be facing a Panthers defense giving up 4.3 yards per carry but just 80 yards on the ground. He can be considered a low-end RB2.

Doug Baldwin (WR, SEA) / Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA) / David Moore (WR, SEA)
Baldwin finally looked healthy in Week 11 as he led the team with nine targets. Moore was second with eight while Lockett took a backseat with just five. Baldwin should continue to operate as Wilson's number one target, with Moore and Lockett acting as 2a and 2b. The Panthers are middle-of-the-pack against wideouts so there should be chances for all three. Baldwin is a WR2 while Lockett and Moore are more of flex starts.

Cam Newton (QB, CAR)
Newton is coming off a monster 357 yard, three touchdown game versus Detroit and now gets a Seahawks defense allowing just 350 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game. Despite the matchup, Newton remains a top option at the position and is a weekly must-start.

Christian McCaffrey (RB, CAR)
McCaffrey has only rushed the ball more than 17 times once all season, but he has five or more catches in three straight. Against a Seahawks defense giving up 4.5 yards per carry and five receptions per game, McCaffrey should have little trouble in this one. He remains a weekly RB1, especially in PPR formats.

Devin Funchess (WR, CAR) / D.J. Moore (WR, CAR)
Moore broke out in a big way in Week 11 with a seven catch, 157 yards, one touchdown performance. Meanwhile, Funchess could only turn eight targets into two catches for 39 yards in a tough matchup. Both will have chances against a Seahawks secondary allowing 13.5 receptions and 170 yards to receivers. Both are in the WR3 mix.

 

Patriots at Jets

Matchups We Love:

Josh Gordon (WR, NE) / Julian Edelman (WR, NE)
Since Edelman returned from suspension in Week 5, he leads the Patriots with a 24% target share while Gordon is second with a 20% share. Both should be heavily involved against a Jets secondary giving up the third most receptions and 185 yards per game. Both are upside WR2 starts.

Chris Herndon IV (TE, NYJ)
Herndon has seven catches for 96 yards over the last two games and gets a Patriots defense allowing five catches, 62 yards, and just under one touchdown per game. He is a viable streaming option this week in a plus matchup.

Matchups We Hate:

Rob Gronkowski (TE, NE)
After missing the last two games with back and ankle injuries, Gronkowski is expected back this week. The last time we saw him, he caught just three passes for 43 yards but did have eight targets. The Jets give up the fewest receptions to tight ends and the fewest yards, so this is a tough spot to return too. Still, if he plays, you have to start him though you should temper expectations.

Other Matchups:

Tom Brady (QB, NE)
Brady is coming off a 254 yard, zero touchdown game against the Titans, his second zero touchdown game of the season. The Jets do have a strong defense, allowing just 258 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game. Brady is no longer the must-start option he's been in years past and is more of a fringe QB1 start.

Sony Michel (RB, NE) / James White (RB, NE)
Michel returned in Week 9 but handled 11 carries for just 31 yards as the team eased him in coming off another knee injury. He should be in line for more work this week. White, meanwhile, has five or more catches in five straight games and remains a great PPR start. The Jets are allowing just under 100 yards per game and five receptions to backs, so both are strong plays this week.

Josh McCown (QB, NYJ)
With Sam Darnold out in Week 10 with a foot injury, McCown started and threw for just 135 yards with two interceptions. Darnold is unlikely to play again which would leave McCown to face a Patriots defense allowing 280 yards and more than two touchdowns per game to quarterbacks. Despite the good matchup, McCown cannot be trusted.

Elijah McGuire (RB, NYJ) / Isaiah Crowell (RB, NYJ)
In his two games since returning McGuire only has six carries in each game but also has three receptions in each. Crowell has 13 and seven carries over those two games with three total receptions. The Patriots are strong against the run, holding backs to just 4.2 yards per carry, but do allow six receptions per game. Both are hard to trust given their volume, but McGuire could have flex appeal due to his passing down work.

Quincy Enunwa (WR, NYJ)
Enunwa led the Jets with eight targets in Week 10 and caught four for an almost unbelievably low 18 yards. Things should be better this week against a Patriots defense that gives up over 160 yards to receivers. Enunwa is a risky start but is a viable flex option.

 

Giants at Eagles

Matchups We Love:

Odell Beckham Jr (WR, NYG), Sterling Shepard (WR, NYG)
The Eagles are decimated in their secondary and allow the most receptions to receivers. They are also giving up over 200 yards and more than one score per game. Beckham is a weekly must-start and has the potential to be this week's overall WR1. Shepard, meanwhile, has lost targets to Saquon Barkley but can be considered a fine flex option in a great spot.

Matchups We Hate:

Evan Engram (TE, NYG)
Engram was only targeted twice in Week 11, catching both for 66 yards. It's only the second time all year he has topped 60 receiving yards. He remains a risky start especially facing an Eagles defense that holds tight ends to just 3.2 catches per game, second fewest in the league. You should look for better options if you have them.

Other Matchups:

Eli Manning (QB, NYG)
Manning now has five touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last two starts and gets an Eagles defense giving up 290 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game. Manning is always a risk, but he is a solid QB2 option in this one.

Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG)
Barkley is coming off his best game as a pro, a 27 carry, 142 yards, two touchdown performance against the Buccaneers, and he now has 20 or more carries in two straight games. The Eagles give up 4.5 yards per carry but just 67 yards on the ground, but also allow six receptions per game to backs. Barkley is a locked-in weekly must-start.

Carson Wentz (QB, PHI)
Wentz and the entire Eagles offense were atrocious against the Saints last week as he threw for just 156 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions. Things should get better this week as the Giants allow 260 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game to opposing passers. Wentz is a fringe QB1.

Josh Adams (RB, PHI) / Corey Clement (RB, PHI)
In Week 11 Adams led the Eagles backfield with seven carries and three receptions while Clement had two and two. With the Eagles getting blown out by the Saints they had to abandon the run, but both should see more work this week against a Giants run defense that hasn't been the same since losing Damon Harrison. The risk here is usage, and neither can be considered more than RB3 starts even in a good matchup.

Alshon Jeffery (WR, PHI) / Golden Tate (WR, PHI) / Nelson Agholor (WR, PHI)
In the two games since the Tate trade, the Eagles targets are Jeffery 13, Tate 12, and Agholor 9. In Week 11 Agholor played outside more, and it seems Tate is taking over slot duties. That is bad news for Agholor who has struggled to play outside in the past. The Giants, for what it's worth, are middle-of-the-pack against receivers. Jeffery can be considered an upside WR2 while Tate is nothing more than a deep league flex at this point. Agholor should be benched.

Zach Ertz (TE, PHI)
Ertz finally had a dud in Week 11. He caught just two of three targets for 15 yards as the entire Eagles offense did nothing. He should bounce back this week against a Giants defense that allows over five catches and more than 60 yards to tight ends. He remains a weekly must-start.

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