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Mark McWhirter gives his top 10 busts and players to avoid at RB or WR in Week 4 of the 2020 NFL fantasy football season.
Week 4 is here, RotoBallers! This is often when fantasy managers begin adjusting their season-long expectations and attempt to separate mirage from reality.
As the weeks roll along, we accumulate useful data for making start/sit decisions. With three weeks of matchups in the books, we can begin to see trends developing as we determine which teams represent easy or difficult matchups for each position.
Our RotoBaller team is here to provide the best articles and analysis each week to aid you with waiver wire pickups, and to break down every fantasy football matchup. My role is to help you avoid starting players who represent roadblocks on your path towards a fantasy championship. As such, below are my top ten fantasy football busts for Week 4. Good luck RotoBallers!
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
D.J. Moore vs. Arizona Cardinals
D.J. Moore is currently the WR29 after a rocky opening to the season. Moore has finished as the WR49, WR14, and WR50 through the first three weeks of 2020. The safety of drafting Moore was that GMs expected a steady floor, even if the touchdowns were unlikely to support high-end WR1 status. Through three weeks, it is Moore’s teammate, Robby Anderson, who sits as a top-ten receiver. Moore should still be considered the favorite to lead the Panthers in targets, but Anderson is going to put a dent in Moore’s floor, as well as his ceiling. The Arizona Cardinals rank second against fantasy receivers, and while that is somewhat affected by having the depleted 49ers and weapon-less Washington Football Team as early-season opponents, this defense is still playing tougher than anticipated. With Moore expected to face some Patrick Peterson this week, the timid start to the former first-rounder’s season may continue in Week 4.
Mike Gesicki vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks have been tough on tight ends in 2020, thus far limiting them to only five fantasy points per game, good enough for third in the NFL. Mike Gesicki has been up-and-down through three weeks, having finished as the TE24, TE2, and TE15. Last week’s performance was saved by a touchdown, which happened to be Gesicki’s only reception of the game. In fact, outside of Week 2’s explosion, Gesicki has averaged only two receptions on four targets for 22.5 yards per game. This game could be a high-scoring affair, but we also have not witnessed the Seahawks play in a non-shootout game script. It is possible that the Seahawks return to their run-heavy ways in matchups they are heavy favorites in, meaning the team may not need to “let Russ cook” in this one. The Seahawks have been unable to defend wide receivers and were burned by the likes of Cedrick Wilson last week. Therefore, Dolphins’ receivers are the preferred plays to Gesicki in this matchup.
Antonio Gibson vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens rank fourth against running backs through the first three weeks of the season. Baltimore has faced rushers such as Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, David Johnson, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, yet have allowed only 15.1 points per game to the position. The Ravens are heavily favored to win this game, making it unlikely that the game script results in a significant number of carries for Washington’s running backs. Even though Antonio Gibson has emerged as the lead back for the team, the rookie has still handled more than nine carries in a game just once to this point. Having posted a career-high with eleven receiving yards last week, it is clear that Gibson is not integrated into the passing game enough yet to be trusted in bad matchups. The touchdown potential will be limited this week, making Gibson a risky low-floor, low-ceiling option.
Marquise Brown vs. Washington Football Team
Marquise Brown checks in at WR57 on the young season. Having started the season nicely with a 100-yard performance and WR25 finish, Brown has followed up with finishes of WR62 and WR96. Washington is sixth against wide receivers this year and allowed only 13.8 points to Cleveland’s wide receivers a week ago. Baltimore, like Cleveland, is expected to utilize a run-heavy approach, especially as near-locks to run away on the scoreboard in this game. If Baltimore jumps out to a big lead, there will be little reason for Lamar Jackson to air it out. Brown is not likely to be consistent in this type of low-volume aerial attack but is always a home run threat. Brown is therefore far from a must-bench, but the floor is extremely low in this matchup.
Carson Wentz vs. San Francisco 49ers
Another year and another injury-depleted pass-catching group for the Eagles. Carson Wentz has been absolutely dreadful to start the season and has a difficult matchup on deck in the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers are dealing with injury concerns of their own, having lost key contributors on both sides of the ball, but this is a well-coached team that had little trouble with the Giants last week despite missing several starters. The 49ers rank sixth against fantasy quarterbacks and Carson Wentz currently sits at QB19 on the season. Dallas Goedert and Jalen Reagor are out, and DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery seem likely to join them on the sidelines this week. That could mean good news for Zach Ertz, but not so much for Wentz. At this point, Wentz should be benched until further notice.
Hunter Henry vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Hunter Henry has hovered around back-end TE1 territory to start the season, having finished as the TE14, TE12, and TE17 so far. His involvement should remain steady enough to keep him in that range, but the ceiling is tempered this week. The Buccaneers rank top-ten versus opposing tight ends this season and have yet to allow a top-twelve performance despite facing Jared Cook and Noah Fant. No tight end has scored a touchdown against the Buccaneers to this point and Henry has yet to score a touchdown this season. Henry remains usable and should not be benched for a dart-throw streaming option, but he is merely a floor play this week and should not be counted on for a big-time performance.
Devonta Freeman vs. Los Angeles Rams
This week will be telling as to Devonta Freeman’s role in the Giants’ offense, as last week he was only able to practice on a limited basis before being thrown into action. Freeman did not have a training camp, as he was not on an NFL roster, and could be a little rusty out of the gates. The Giants offense has been stuck in a tailspin, having scored only 38 total points on the season, and utilized a committee approach in Freeman’s debut last week. The Rams rank middle-of-the-pack against fantasy rushers but have improved each week and are favorites to win this game at home. No Giants’ running back has topped 28 rushing yards in a game this season and all Giants’ running backs should be benched until we see some life from this rushing attack as a whole.
N'Keal Harry vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have been excellent against wide receivers thus far, ranking first against the position after three games. Kansas City stymied MVP Lamar Jackson last week, holding him to under 100 yards passing. Cam Newton has been great as a Patriot so far but had a rough outing from a passing perspective in Week 3 against the Raiders. Newton has now been held to 162 or fewer passing yards in two of three games this season. That does not bode well for this matchup, although Newton showed his ability to air it out in the Patriots’ shootout loss to the Seahawks in Week 2. N’Keal Harry managed a WR27 finish that week, but that encouraging performance has been sandwiched by finishes of WR74 and WR71. I am avoiding starting the WR64 for the season against the current top-ranked unit against wide receivers.
Philip Rivers vs. Chicago Bears
Philip Rivers travels to Chicago this week to take on a Bears team that ranks second against fantasy quarterbacks, having not allowed a performance greater than QB22 for the season. The Bears shut down Matt Ryan last week, albeit without Julio Jones. The Colts have employed a run-heavy approach the past two weeks and it has led to poor fantasy performances from Rivers, the QB26 on the season. In easy matchups, the Colts are likely to run the ball, and Rivers will be hard to trust in difficult matchups due to his tendency to turn the ball over. This game should be more competitive than the past two Colts’ matchups, leading to increased reliance on the passing game, but Rivers should still not be started outside of leagues that allow two quarterbacks.
Anthony Miller vs. Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Miller remains an enigma. He followed up a WR16 performance in Week 1 by failing to catch a single pass in Week 2. His WR35 finish last week places him at WR36 for the season, but his two touchdown receptions have somewhat overshadowed the concerns that exist below the surface. Miller’s 58% snap rate last week was his highest of the season and it is worrisome that he is unable to emerge from such a lackluster group of receivers behind Allen Robinson II. Miller has flashed the ability to find the end zone, having scored seven times as a rookie, so the touchdowns may not be a fluke. His floor, however, is going to be extremely shaky if he does not earn more consistent playing time. Nick Foles being inserted as the Bears’ starting quarterback will hopefully represent an upgrade for Miller, but the Colts are a difficult matchup for quarterback and receiver alike. The Colts rank fifth against wide receivers and first against quarterbacks in terms of fantasy points allowed. Miller is worth hanging onto in case he develops better chemistry with Foles than he had with Trubisky, but fantasy managers should take a wait-and-see approach rather than inserting him into lineups in this troublesome matchup.
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