October 26, 2016

Mike analyzes three NBA teams to watch in Week One - fantasy basketball waiver wire pickups, adds, breakouts and sleepers for the opening week of NBA action.

Imagine this scenario: your draft ended, you feel really good about the guys you managed to grab, then you look at your roster and reality hits. Your team may be solid but three or four of your guys are hurt and, worst of all, there's no clear timeline for when they'll be returning.

If you're lucky, you have one or two IR spots to grab free agents (Note to Yahoo users: you have one IR spot if you're playing in standard leagues, click on an injured guy and move him to the "IL" roster spot - this will allow you to grab a free agent). But now you're left with a lot of questions - how long do I wait for my injured guys to get back? Are any of them droppable? Maybe I could package one or two of them in a trade for a guy that can both help my team now and fits my strategy better?

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Week One Waiver Wire Adds - Three NBA Teams to Watch

For the scope of this article, we're just going to deal with triaging the gaping wounds on your roster by grabbing guys who will produce right now. Rather than whipping out my crystal ball and tell you about guys who may or may not produce, instead I'll tell you about three teams you should watch and see who produces.

This is preferable to saying something like, "Tim Frazier is the guy to get on the Pelicans because Jrue Holiday is out," because in many leagues Tim Frazier was probably drafted in the final rounds. But that doesn't mean you shouldn't take a look at another guy who might benefit from Holiday's absence (as well as that of Tyreke Evans), someone like E'Twaun Moore and Solomon Hill.

#1: New Orleans Pelicans

In case the above didn't make it clear - if Tim Frazier is on your waiver wire and you need production now, go get him.

Unfortunately, his averages from 15-16 don't paint the full picture, which is that when Holiday is out, Frazier produces.

On April 11 against CHI: 20 PTS, 3 STL, 11 AST, 4 REB, 1 3PT, 40.0 FG%, 77.8 FT%
On April 3 against BKN: 19 PTS, 3 STL, 13 AST, 2 REB, 2 3PT, 63.6 FG%, 75.0 FT%

Meanwhile, E'Twaun Moore has won the battle for starting shooting guard and is likely on your waiver wire right now. If you're looking to grab someone speculatively, he's definitely a good candidate. Buddy Hield is looming in the background of this picture but he hasn't done anything to make him a threat yet. Just keep in mind that at some point in this season Tyreke Evans might return, maybe? But his injury concerns will linger even when he does return so between Solomon Hill, E'Twaun, Moore, Tim Frazier, and Buddy Hield there's potential for a guy to earn consistent minutes and continue putting up top 100 numbers right through the fantasy playoffs. But right now it's only short term potential.

For now, Tim Frazier, Solomon Hill, and E'Twaun Moore are the best adds. Frazier being the best out of them all by far, but Moore and Hill possibly holding longer term value. Hill has more potential to produce better big man numbers (REB/BLK) at his position (SF) with Frazier and Moore will put up guard numbers (PTS/AST/STL).  It's worth keeping an eye on the games to see whether Hill or Moore takes on a bigger scoring role.

#2: Utah Jazz

SOMEONE on this bruised and broken team has to produce in the first month of the season. At the moment Derrick Favors, Gordon Hayward, Alec Burks, and Joe Johnson are all out. This leaves newly acquired George Hill, and mainstays Rodney Hood and Rudy Gobert as the main producers. However, Hill and Gobert aren't exactly known for their offensive prowess, so Hood is the only consistent scoring option.

This leaves two other guys worth mentioning - Trey Lyles and Dante Exum. The only competition for minutes for Lyles comes from Boris Diaw (who is dealing with minor injuries and is not expected to have a meaningful role unless it involves eating donuts). Exum has a little more competition from Shelvin Mack and Raul Neto. Mack was actually a serviceable starter last year for decent chunks of the season, so owners should always keep an eye on what kind of numbers he's putting up. Neto is buried too far down the depth chart and is likely someone you've never heard of anyway. However, Exum is the guy who really should be the breakout candidate - he has the potential and the right situation but it's up to him to capitalize.

Speculatively add Lyles if you want to gamble on a big man and Exum if you're looking for a guard.

#3: Brooklyn Nets

Brook Lopez, Jeremy Lin, and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson are in line to be the most consistent fantasy options on the Nets. But there's a few question marks here worth considering:

Is Trevor Booker actually a good player? At times last year he looked very promising with Favors out, but he also had several duds and didn't hold any value when Favors got back. However, he's locked into a starting role on his new team and has been ignored in almost all fantasy drafts.

Some standout games were:

On Jan 22 against BKN: 13 PTS, 10 REB, 0 BLK, 0 STL, 60.0 FG%

On Nov 28 against NO: 13 PTS, 15 REB, 3 BLK, 2 STL, 62.5 FG%, 100.0 FT% (Note: He had a .670 FT% last year but with a small sample size of 0.9/1.3 FTM)

He will compete with Luis Scola (who is actually meaningful competition despite his age), but you have to figure the Nets give him a long look to see what they have in Booker.

Bojan Bogdanovic was likely taken in late rounds, and for good reason since he can light up the scoreboard, but he has yet to develop any sort of consistency. When he almost inevitably falters, some opportunity is there for newly acquired Randy Foye (who was very serviceable at times for the Nuggets) who should be starting at SG. But that means there's actually a surprising amount of mouths to feed on the Nets (even 3rd string SG Sean Kilpatrick is a spunky scoring threat). This could equate to all of the 2s on the Nets being irrelevant fantasy-wise, but they're still worth monitoring.

For now, make sure that Bojan isn't available in your league, and keep an eye on Booker for big man numbers and Foye as an under the radar guard who could produce solid numbers (but at the moment his ceiling doesn't seem particularly high - so not a guy to bother with if you want a home-run).