X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

The Outsiders: Deeper Pitching Prospects to Know for Dynasty Leagues

fantasy baseball prospects MLB prospects rookies call-ups

Phil Goyette takes a look at deeper fantasy baseball dynasty pitching prospects, prospect sleepers that should be on your fantasy radars in deep dynasty leagues.

Welcome the latest update of The Outsiders, where I highlight pitching prospects that should be on your radar in deep dynasty leagues.

For "standard" dynasty leagues, we have RotoBaller's Premium Top 250 Dynasty Prospect Rankings, updated and maintained by our prospect guru Marc Hulet. But for you degenerates who participate in the deepest of dynasty leagues, you always need more of the next big thing. Therefore, I bring you...THE OUTSIDERS.

The Outsiders are MLB prospects currently outside RotoBaller's Top 250 Prospect Rankings. Each week, I will update rankings of players outside the Top 250 that should be on your radar for deep dynasty leagues and highlight some new players that could be showing up on the rankings in the future. My method is to use statistical analysis and in-game video looks of players to project what their future fantasy value could be at the MLB level.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Overview

This is the third update of the 2021 season for the Outsider Pitcher ranks. These rankings focus on a stats-heavy approach. I have created a fantasy-based weighted average called "Outsider+". This average weighs the production for each pitcher that has logged at least 10 innings pitched in 2021. This week, I'll highlight a number of pitchers using their "Outsider+" performance for each level they have appeared at in 2021.

Here is the next batch of Outsiders to know for dynasty baseball leagues in 2021:

Name Team Level League Age OUT+ EstRA+ K%+ BB%+ GB%+ SwStr%+ Strike%+ GS%
Caleb Kilian SFG A+ West 24 516 674 150 840 130 128 116 100%
Caleb Kilian SFG AA NE 24 119 128 94 328 114 83 110 100%
Jason Bilous CHW A+ East 23 345 431 168 288 100 148 113 100%
Jason Bilous CHW AA South 23 112 114 113 110 97 119 100 100%
Spencer Strider ATL A East 22 314 381 201 128 57 185 108 100%
Spencer Strider ATL A+ East 22 146 150 140 106 96 168 103 100%
Peyton Battenfield TBR A+ East 23 247 301 152 239 113 116 108 86%
Peyton Battenfield TBR AA South 23 127 135 124 285 64 105 109 100%
Brandon Williamson SEA A+ West 23 244 292 167 139 97 142 107 100%
Avery Weems TEX A+ East 24 219 257 151 192 109 141 107 100%
Ryan Smith LAA A West 23 203 239 150 160 109 112 112 80%
Ryan Smith LAA A+ West 23 127 136 108 255 95 100 105 100%
John Doxakis TBR A East 22 198 228 136 411 99 132 116 100%
Brayan Bello BOS A+ East 22 183 210 133 180 129 130 103 100%
Brayan Bello BOS AA NE 22 91 91 111 66 93 89 92 100%
Blayne Enlow MIN A+ Central 22 181 204 146 106 141 147 98 100%

Included in the Outsider+ (OUT+) average are the following statistical measures. Each stat is league adjusted so that "100" equates with a league-average performance. Each digit above or below 100 represents a 1% deviation from the average. So, Spencer Strider's 201 K%+ rate was 101 percentage points above the average performance in Low-A East in 2021.

  • EstRA+ is a run estimator that uses a pitcher's K%, BB%, and GB% to estimate how many runs he would have allowed given neutral luck.
  • K%+ shows what percentage of batters the pitcher struck out.
  • BB%+ shows what percentage of batters the pitcher walked.
  • GB%+ shows what percentage of balls in play allowed by the pitcher were groundballs.
  • SwStr%+ shows the percentages swings and misses a pitcher generated on every pitch that he threw. A companion to K%+ to help measure dominance.
  • Strike%+ shows the percentage of pitches that the pitcher threw for strikes. A companion to BB%+ to help measure command.
  • GS% shows the percentage of appearances that the pitcher made in a starting role. A measure to determine what role the organization plans on using the pitcher in.

 

Caleb Kilian - RHP, San Francisco Giants

Current situation:

Caleb Kilian has been promoted to Double-A ball, where he continues to deliver at an above-average level for the league. While Kilian didn't continue on the same absurd level that he was performing at at High-A to start the season, it's encouraging to see him pitching well against more age-appropriate competition. High strikeout stuff has tailed off a bit at Double-A, but he's still pounding the zone, limiting walks, and inducing a good amount of groundballs. Look for him to continue to develop the secondaries at the Double-A level.

 

Jason Bilous, RHP - Chicago White Sox

Current situation:

Similar to Caleb Kilian, Jason Bilous is an Outsider who dominated against younger competition in High-A ball to start the 2021 season. Bilous had a little bad luck upon his promotion to Double-A, but he's righted the ship over the last few outings. Encouraging signs are that Bilous continues to punch out batters (113 K%+) and generate whiffs (119 SwStr+) despite facing tougher hitting in the Double-A South league. His league-adjusted strike throwing has dropped 10 points though, so be aware that that BB% could drop from it's current above-average level. This 23-year-old Coastal Carolina product has done enough to earn a spot on your watch list in deeper leagues.

 

Spencer Strider - RHP, Atlanta Braves

Current situation:

Spencer Strider was phenomenal at Low-A, very good at High-A, and has a 1.76 FIP through two starts in Double-A ball. That's two promotions for a pitching prospect that could possibly earn himself a third promotion up to Triple-A if he keeps pitching like this. FanGraphs David Laurila put out a good interview with Strider recently. One thing that stood out to me in that piece was the fact that Strider hasn't used his changeup at all this year. Which is impressive, as his changeup graded out as a future above-average pitch when Strider was in college. He should be owned in dynasty leagues rostering 250 or more minor leaguers.

 

Peyton Battenfield, RHP - Tampa Bay Rays

Current situation:

Peyton Battenfield is on a similar trajectory to Caleb Kilian and Jason Bilous, earning himself a quick promotion up to Double-A after shoving at the High-A level to open the season. Battenfield is 23-years-old, so Double-A ball should be a good, age appropriate test for him. He's responded very well by following the same blueprint. He throws a lot of strikes and is stingy with the free passes. Battenfield was traded from the Astros to the Rays in the deal that sent RHP Austin Pruitt to Houston. Next thing you know, the Rays have another promising young arm in the upper levels of their farm system.

 

Brandon Williamson, LHP - Seattle Mariners

Current situation:

Another hurler who got himself promoted to Double-A early on this season. Williamson was unlucky in his first Double-A start (5 innings, 4 ER, .429 BABIP against, 14.3% HR/FB rate), but I think he should be able to settle in and perform just as well at Double-A as he did at High-A to start the year. He did start his Double-A career with an immaculate inning:

 

Avery Weems, LHP - Texas Rangers

Current situation:

Avery Weems was a part of the haul that the Rangers got back from the White Sox in the Lance Lynn trade. Weems is very old for level (24 years-old at High-A), but his performance throughout his pro career so far deserves your attention. He is abusing hitters at this level, running a swinging-strike percentage 41 points above league average. It's his vexing left-handed funk from a lower armslot, combined with an effective slider as an out pitch. He should get promoted to Double-A any day now.

 

Ryan Smith, LHP - Los Angeles Angels

Current situation:

Ryan Smith was the Angels 18th round selection in the 2019 draft out of baseball powerhouse (?) Princeton. He's a smaller statured lefty that the Angels have shifted to a starting role for the 2021 season. The experiment is working well so far, earning Smith a promotion to High-A ball already this year. He worked on adding velocity during the lockdown, and it seems to be paying dividends for him so far:

 

John Doxakis, LHP - Tampa Bay Rays

Current situation:

John Doxakis has earned himself a promotion from Low-A to High-A since our prior update. Doxakis was the Rays' second round pick in the 2019 draft and is on a good path to contribute to the big league club within the next two years. He's a big, funky lefty with a good slider.

 

Brayan Bello - RHP, Boston Red Sox

Current situation:

The Red Sox have been aggressive with young right-hander Brayan Bello so far this year, pushing him up to Double-A even though he just recently turned 22 years old. Bello has posted a respectable 3.27 ERA through three Double-A starts so far, but his below average EstRA+ of 91 suggests that he's been a little on the lucky side with his results at the level. He continues punching out batters at a solid rate (111 K%+), but he's lost some of his command (66 BB%+). Double-A might be a bit bumpy for Bello the rest of the season, but all-in-all this has been a great year of development for the young hurler.

Blayne Enlow, RHP - Minnesota Twins

Current situation:

Blayne Enlow's strikeout stuff has taken a major leap forward this year, and he's currently running a 146 K%+ that's fully backed by his excellent 147 Swinging Strike%+ mark at High-A ball this year. He seems to be showing a more developed feel for the breaker this year, making it a pitch that's getting both whiffs and called strikes. He's unfortunately shelved with an elbow ailment at the moment, but assuming he comes back healthy he's a must monitor guy for deep dynasty leaguers.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!




More Fantasy Baseball Prospects and Rookies




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Andrew Heaney2 hours ago

Tosses Six Shutout Innings
Triston Casas2 hours ago

Launches Three-Run Homer
Jordan Lawlar2 hours ago

Records Another Multi-Hit Performance
Pete Crow-Armstrong2 hours ago

Homers, Steals Two Bases
Yanquiel Fernandez3 hours ago

With Another Multi-Homer Game
Reese Olson3 hours ago

Strikes Out Seven In Win
Jake Mangum3 hours ago

Exits Game With Groin Tightness
Ryan Pressly3 hours ago

Dealing With Knee Issues
George Kittle3 hours ago

Wants To Be Highest-Paid Tight End
Jac Caglianone3 hours ago

Stays Hot On Wednesday
Tyler Lockett3 hours ago

Joining The Titans
Allan Winans3 hours ago

Strikes Out 10 On Wednesday At Triple-A
3 hours ago

Will Shedeur Sanders' Game Translate To The NFL?
Las Vegas Raiders4 hours ago

Raiders Could Go With Offensive Lineman At No. 6 Overall
NFL4 hours ago

Jaguars, Raiders Looking To Trade Up In First Round
Marcelo Mayer4 hours ago

With Two More Multi-Hit Performances Wednesday
New Orleans Saints4 hours ago

Saints Won't Pick Up Fifth-Year Option On Trevor Penning
Nick Chubb4 hours ago

Not Interested In Retirement
George Pickens4 hours ago

Drawing Trade Interest
Rashee Rice4 hours ago

Taking Part In Offseason Program
4 hours ago

Concerns About Tetairoa McMillan's Lack Of Effort
Jahan Dotson4 hours ago

Eagles Decline Fifth-Year Option On Jahan Dotson
MLB5 hours ago

Rockies-Royals Rained Out On Wednesday
Zach Eflin5 hours ago

To Throw A Side Session Later This Week
Justin Martinez5 hours ago

"All Indications" Justin Martinez Will Be Available On Wednesday
Zack Wheeler5 hours ago

Records Nine Strikeouts
Jared Jones5 hours ago

To Undergo MRI This Week
Luis Rengifo6 hours ago

Returns On Wednesday
Chandler Simpson6 hours ago

Sitting Out Versus Lefty
Joc Pederson6 hours ago

Taking A Seat Versus Southpaw
Leody Taveras6 hours ago

Sitting Out On Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski6 hours ago

Upgraded To Available
Cam Davis7 hours ago

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Corey Seager7 hours ago

Goes On 10-Day Injured List With Hamstring Strain
Michael Porter Jr.7 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Minnesota Vikings7 hours ago

Vikings Waive NaJee Thompson, Trevor Reid
Adam Svensson7 hours ago

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Jake Fromm7 hours ago

Lions Release Jake Fromm
Seattle Seahawks7 hours ago

Cameron Young Let Go By Seattle
Detroit Lions8 hours ago

Detroit Makes Kerby Joseph The Highest-Paid Safety In League History
Davion Mitchell8 hours ago

Moves Into Starting Lineup Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski8 hours ago

Picks Up Questionable Tag
Al Horford8 hours ago

Starts Game 2
Michael Porter Jr.9 hours ago

Practices On Wednesday
Jayson Tatum9 hours ago

Out On Wednesday
Isaiah Stewart9 hours ago

May Miss Another Game Thursday
NYI9 hours ago

Cal Clutterbuck Announces Retirement
Pavel Zacha9 hours ago

Recovering From Small Procedure
Nikolaj Ehlers9 hours ago

To Miss At Least Two More Games
Miro Heiskanen10 hours ago

Still Out On Wednesday
John Klingberg10 hours ago

Enters Oilers Lineup For Game 2
Evander Kane10 hours ago

To Make Season Debut Wednesday Night
Gabriel Landeskog10 hours ago

Likely To Play In Game 3
Denver Broncos11 hours ago

Broncos Not Expected To Trade Up In Round 1
Houston Texans11 hours ago

Texans Trying To Move Up In Round 1 Of NFL Draft
Atlanta Falcons11 hours ago

James Pearce Jr., Mike Green Potential Top Targets For Falcons
Dallas Cowboys12 hours ago

Cowboys Could Add Wide Receiver Help With No. 12 Pick
New Orleans Saints12 hours ago

Saints Likely To Address Defense With No. 9 Pick?
12 hours ago

Rams Eyeing Trade Up For Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland?
Jaren Jackson Jr.17 hours ago

Posts Team-High 26 Points In Tuesday's Loss
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander17 hours ago

Notches 27 Points Despite Poor Shooting
Max Greyserman17 hours ago

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Pascal Siakam17 hours ago

Scores Team-High 24 Points In Game 2 Win
Giannis Antetokounmpo18 hours ago

Posts Big Double-Double In Game 2 Loss
Lee Hodges18 hours ago

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA18 hours ago

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Julius Randle18 hours ago

Leads Timberwolves In Scoring In Game 2
Gary Woodland18 hours ago

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Luka Dončić18 hours ago

Luka Doncic Nets 31 Points In Lakers Win
Max McGreevy18 hours ago

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard18 hours ago

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Jock Landale18 hours ago

Unavailable For Game 2
Sam Stevens18 hours ago

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Jae'Sean Tate18 hours ago

Remains Out Wednesday
Nicolai Hojgaard18 hours ago

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
John Tavares18 hours ago

Collects Two Points In Overtime Win
Christiaan Bezuidenhout18 hours ago

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Frederik Andersen18 hours ago

Posts 40th Postseason Win
Akshay Bhatia18 hours ago

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young18 hours ago

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Kirill Kaprizov18 hours ago

Leads Wild To Valuable Road Win
Matthew Tkachuk19 hours ago

Returns With Three-Point Performance
Erik Van Rooyen19 hours ago

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Anthony Cirelli19 hours ago

Suffers Undisclosed Injury Tuesday
Gabriel Vilardi19 hours ago

May Return To Jets Lineup Thursday
John Klingberg19 hours ago

Ready To Return To Action
Evander Kane19 hours ago

Could Be An Option For Game 2
Andrew Novak1 day ago

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin1 day ago

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore1 day ago

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark1 day ago

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama1 day ago

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa1 day ago

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry1 day ago

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
Terry Rozier1 day ago

Ruled Out For Wednesday
Damian Lillard1 day ago

Will Have His Minutes Monitored Tuesday
Jayson Tatum1 day ago

Listed As Doubtful For Game 2
Derek Forbort1 day ago

Recovering From Surgery
Martin Fehérváry1 day ago

Martin Fehervary To Miss Postseason Following Knee Surgery
Luke Glendening1 day ago

Available For Start Of Playoffs
Mitchell Chaffee1 day ago

Available Tuesday
Cody Glass1 day ago

Good To Go Tuesday
Brenden Dillon1 day ago

Won't Play In Game 2
Damian Lillard1 day ago

Cleared To Play Tuesday
Nikola Jokić2 days ago

Nikola Jokic Posts 19th Postseason Triple-Double
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF