RADIO
Happy Thanksgiving, and welcome to the RotoBaller Thanksgiving Thursday start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 13! Many - including myself - believe Thanksgiving is the single best football day of the year, and 2024 gives us three compelling matchups (well, maybe two plus the Cowboys versus Giants) to fill us up all day long. That is, of course, if the turkey and stuffing haven't done that already.
Thanksgiving Thursday will bring us three games, so there will be lots of fantasy football start/sit and lineup decisions to be made. First, on Thursday, the unlucky Chicago Bears visit the unstoppable Detroit Lions in a key NFC North divisional matchup. Following this game, we have the stumbling New York Giants traveling to take on the Dallas Cowboys, coming off a big win. This mid-afternoon game might be the best opportunity for you to sneak in a nap in what might be the most lackluster game of the day. To end the day, we have the Miami Dolphins visiting the Green Bay Packers in a game where Tua Tagovailoa is trying to shake his cold-weather failure narrative.
Each week, I will be bringing you Thursday Night Football analysis, focusing on who to definitely start, who is on the fence, and who should find the bench. But with an oversized three games on this holiday Thursday, there are plenty of start/sit decisions to make.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
- Kicker fantasy football rankings
- FLEX fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- IDP fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
Football. Turducken. More football! #MaddenThanksgiving pic.twitter.com/2Ice0iF1QG
— NFL (@NFL) November 26, 2024
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions - 12:30 PM ET
Be sure to also check out our Actives/Inactives Report for notable injuries:
- David Montgomery (RB - DET) - Shoulder - ACTIVE
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR - DET) - Knee - ACTIVE
- Kalif Raymond (WR - DET) - Foot - OUT/Placed on IR
Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET)
Assuming the Sun God suits up (EDIT: He is), and his minor knee injury isn't limiting him, you are firing him up for this divisional game. He just had a streak of eight straight games with a touchdown snapped when he "only" caught six balls for 62 yards. He has one game with fewer than seven targets over his last six.
Most Receptions for First Down this Season:
🥇 Amon-Ra St. Brown - 47
🥇 Ja'Marr Chase - 47
🥈 Justin Jefferson - 41
🥉 Garrett Wilson - 40 pic.twitter.com/wEm0w9rcB8— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) November 26, 2024
David Montgomery (RB, DET)
David Montgomery's status is a little more concerning with his shoulder injury, as he did have to leave the game before halftime last week. But the tea leaves are pointing to him playing and that means he is in lineups. Montgomery is now firmly in the top 12 running backs of the year, and Chicago has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards this season to running backs.
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, DET)
He showed he could play a workhorse role if needed once Montgomery went down with an injury last week. Despite being the "backup" running back, Gibbs is RB4 on the season in half-PPR formats with more than 17 fantasy points per game.
Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Caleb Williams (QB, CHI)
Caleb Williams has been phenomenal in the two games the Bears have played without former offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. In those games, Williams averages over 280 passing yards, over 50 rushing yards, and a passing touchdown per game. The Lions are stingy, but being 10-point underdogs means Williams is going to be chucking it.
Keenan Allen (WR, CHI)
Keenan Allen looked rejuvenated in Week 12 with nine catches for 86 yards and a touchdown. He leads the team in targets over the last two weeks with 23, including two red zone targets.
D.J. Moore (WR, CHI)
D.J. Moore has back-to-back games with seven catches, which is the first time he nabbed that many since Week 3. His role is also increasing in his new offense, and he had his first 100-yard touchdown game since Week 5 to prove it.
Back to basics with DJ Moore #DaBears pic.twitter.com/yQs62nsl46
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 25, 2024
Jared Goff (QB, DET)
The Jared Goff experience can be quite a roller coaster for fantasy lineups depending on how often he throws, if he randomly throws five interceptions in a game, or how much the running backs take over. But add it all up, and he is QB13 on the year with only two games in his last nine, going for under 13 fantasy points.
Sam LaPorta (TE, DET)
Sam LaPorta returned from missing a game due to injury to post three catches for 19 yards. More importantly, he had six targets in the game and looked to be very involved. He is no longer in the must-start category, but he can still produce a big game for fantasy any week of the season.
Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups
D'Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson (RBs, CHI)
The Lions have allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards to running backs and the third-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs this year, including just seven rushing touchdowns in 11 games. One of these running backs may find their way to a short touchdown, but it's unlikely to come with many yards or receptions to accompany it.
Cole Kmet (TE, CHI)
After four straight games with no more than three catches or 42 yards, Cole Kmet rebounded with seven receptions for 64 yards against Minnesota on Sunday. But before last week, Kmet only had 13 total targets in his last five games. He is being minimized in favor of the wide receivers now.
caleb williams delivers in traffic to cole kmet 🐻⬇️#DaBears
🎶 thrill of it - wiz khalifa & empire of the sun pic.twitter.com/S3Z5cyzkuB— Jimbo (@james_sweener) November 26, 2024
Rome Odunze (WR, CHI)
Despite 10 targets each of the last two games (again, no Waldron), Odunze's production has not been able to rise to the level of Allen and Moore. He has 11 catches for 104 yards in those games, so he isn't completely unusable. But Odunze is now just WR61 on the season overall.
Jameson Williams (WR, DET)
When you start Jameson Williams, you have to be prepared to get his entire range from this season. That means anything from 0.1 points to 22 fantasy points. The Bears have allowed the second-fewest receptions overall to the position this year, so starting Williams means you will need one of the long bombs to connect.
Kirksey’s Thanksgiving Picks
Current Spread: DET -10, TOTAL: 48.5
Picks: CHI +10, OVER 48.5
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys - 4:30 PM ET
Be sure to also check out our Actives/Inactives Report for notable injuries:
- Tommy Devito (QB - NYG) - Forearm - Doubtful/Not Expected to Play
- Theo Johnson (TE - NYG) - Back - Questionable
- Brandin Cooks (WR - DAL) - Knee - Questionable/Expected to Play
- Jake Ferguson (TE - DAL) - Concussion - OUT
- Cooper Rush (QB - DAL) - Knee - Expected to Play
Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)
Eighteen catches over his last two games show just how much CeeDee Lamb will continue to be involved with Cooper Rush at quarterback. The 160 total yards in that span is a vast improvement over the 21 yards Lamb had when Dak Prescott went out with injury. Lamb has double-digit targets in five straight games.
CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons are playing their hearts out.
THAT is what you need from your leaders in a lost season.
— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) November 24, 2024
Malik Nabers (WR, NYG)
This has a loud, squeaky wheel written all over it this week for Malik Nabers. After calling out the coaching staff for not getting him the ball until the Giants were losing 30-0 last week, expect Nabers to be heavily utilized no matter who lines up at quarterback for the Giants in Dallas.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB, NYG)
Tracy's streak of three straight games with at least 17 touches came to an end against Tampa Bay last week as he started losing snaps once the score got out of hand. But the good news is that Tracy is still getting almost every running back touch when it is in a neutral scoring setting for New York.
Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Luke Schoonmaker (TE, DAL)
With Jake Ferguson expected to sit this one out again, Schoonmaker can keep his hot streak going with Rush. He has 55 yards in back-to-back weeks and caught a nice touchdown in the fourth quarter in Week 12. He has 14 targets over the last two games.
Rico Dowdle (RB, DAL)
Rico Dowdle jumped up to 61% of snaps played in Week 12 and now gets the Giants, who allow the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs this season. Important for Dowdle is the fact that the Giants are in the bottom 10 in both rushing yards and receiving yards allowed to the position.
Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups
Brandin Cooks, KaVontae Turpin, and Jalen Tolbert (WRs, DAL)
Brandin Cooks is likely to be very limited in this game if he finally returns from injury. Turpin had a nice return touchdown last week but is rarely involved in a meaningful way in the passing game. Jalen Tolbert scored last week but hasn't had more than three catches or 44 yards since Week 6.
Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL)
Just 13 total touches over the last three games. No, thank you. Ezekiel Elliott does not need to be on rosters right now.
Cooper Rush (QB, DAL)
Even after scoring 17 and 18 fantasy points in the last two weeks, Rush is QB34 in the four weeks he has started for the Cowboys. He is likely good for one passing touchdown and one turnover in this game while throwing for about 235 yards. Even with their struggles, the Giants have allowed the ninth-fewest passing touchdowns per game.
#Cowboys QB Cooper Rush (knee) says he’s good to go for Thursday's game vs Giants despite some knee soreness ✭ pic.twitter.com/rQk2gLXzWU
— The Cowboys Network (@TheCowboysNet) November 26, 2024
Tommy DeVito and Drew Lock (QBs, NYG)
With Tommy DeVito's forearm hurting this week, we might get Drew Lock after all on Thanksgiving. That would boost the stock of a player like Nabers, but with Micah Parsons and the Dallas Cowboys defense getting healthy, I don't want any part of a New York Giants quarterback.
Wan'Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton (WRs, NYG)
These two are WR49 and WR64 on the year, respectively. Even with Robinson's pass-catching appeal, he hasn't scored more than seven points in half-PPR formats since Week 5.
Theo Johnson (TE, NYG)
Theo Johnson is battling some back spasms and no travels against a defense that has allowed the eighth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends this season.
Kirksey’s Thanksgiving Picks
Current Spread: DAL -3.5, TOTAL: 37.5
Picks: DAL -3.5, OVER 37.5
Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers - 8:20 PM ET
Be sure to also check out our Actives/Inactives Report for notable injuries:
- Tyreek Hill (WR - MIA) - Wrist - Questionable
- Romeo Doubs (WR - GB) - Concussion - Doubtful
- Josh Jacobs (RB - GB) - Cramping - Questionable
Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Jayden Reed (WRs, GB)
With Romeo Doubs likely to miss this game and Christian Watson still maddingly inefficient, Jayden Reed has the opportunity to step into a big role on Thanksgiving Day. Reed is second on the team in targets and had 78 yards last time Doubs missed a game earlier this season.
Josh Jacobs (RB, GB)
Josh Jacobs has at least 23 touches in three of Green Bay's last four games as they are starting to prioritize the run more as the season gets shorter and the weather gets colder. I expect at least another 20 touches for Jacobs at home in this game as Green Bay will look to keep the ball out of Tua Tagovailoa's hand as much as possible.
Josh Jacobs forced 15 (!!) missed tackles against the 49ers. The most any running back has in a game in 2024
He’s top 3 in the NFL in yards after contact, 10+ yard runs, and hasn’t missed a game for the Packers this yearpic.twitter.com/0Brs76ibwA
— Football Digest (@FoootballDigest) November 25, 2024
Tyreek Hill (WR, MIA)
Whether it's age, injury, decline, or a combination of those, Tyreek Hill has not been the same since Week 1 of the 2024 season. However, he is a threat to break a game open at any moment and still leads the team in targets by a wide margin. The Packers are a top-10 team against wide receivers this year, but I can't imagine leaving Hill on the bench for this one.
Jaylen Waddle (WR, MIA)
Jaylen Waddle had his most targets of the season in Week 12 (nine) and it not surprisingly turned into by far his best game of the season. Waddle had 144 yards and a touchdown on eight catches. Is this a corner turned for Waddle and this Dolphins' offense? Perhaps, but Waddle has earned a week back in our lineups to see if this is real.
De'Von Achane (RB, MIA)
De'Von Achane is the RB4 over the last five weeks and is excelling in the running game, passing game, goal-line work, and two-minute drill. There is no way you can sit him in this game considering how hot he has been and how often he is finding the end zone.
Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Jordan Love (QB, GB)
Jordan Love is still QB8 over the whole season, but if you just look since Week 8, he is QB28, tied with the controversial Bryce Young. That's not a great place to be, but it's because the Packers are forcing the run down everyone's throats. The Packers ran the ball 39 times just with running backs last week and will surely do that again against Miami at home.
Tucker Kraft (TE, GB)
Tucker Kraft has now officially entered the top 10 tight ends of the season in half-PPR, scoring at 8.3 points per game. He is now ahead of Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, and Dallas Goedert on the season. The Dolphins have allowed the fourth-most receptions to tight ends this season.
Christian Watson (WR, GB)
Boom or bust. That's what you're getting with Watson these days. You might get four catches for 150 yards like in Week 11, or you might get literally zero catches, as was the case in Week 12. He should get a few more targets with no Doubs, so I think he is worth putting in your lineup this week.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)
Tagovailoa has experienced a resurgence over the last two games. He has averaged 25 fantasy points per game after quite a miraculous comeback from a concussion earlier this season. But his struggles in cold weather are real. He is 0-7 in games that are below 40 degrees and has struggled in those conditions. He is a good start, but not a great start this week.
2nd Half QB Efficiency, Minimum 100 Snaps:
Tua Tagovailoa. pic.twitter.com/5TNxKoX36V
— Max Loeb (@loebsleads) November 26, 2024
Jonnu Smith (TE, MIA)
Speaking of great starts, Jonnu Smith has taken on an oversized role in this Dolphins offense. He has 19 targets, 15 catches, 188 yards, and three touchdowns over the last two games. He is taking the place of the deep shots we are used to seeing. Instead, the Dolphins are getting him the ball in space, and Smith has been cashing in.
Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups
Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Wright (RBs, MIA)
Achane has been so hot that both of these running backs for Miami have been phased out, even at the goal line. Mostert hasn't had more than seven points since Week 8.
Emanuel Wilson (RB, GB)
Jacobs is such a workhorse right now that there are only scraps left for guys like Emanuel Wilson and MarShawn Lloyd. Wilson is not in consideration this week.
Dontayvion Wicks and Bo Melton (WRs, GB)
The last time one of these receivers had more than 25 yards in a game was Week 7. In Week 5 when Romeo Doubs missed, Wicks had 20 receiving yards and Melton had 12.
Kirksey’s Thanksgiving Picks
Current Spread: GB -3.5, TOTAL: 47
Picks: GB -3.5, OVER 47
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