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Matt Donnelly's fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Super Bowl LIX Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles (2024-25). His lineup advice for Super Bowl fantasy football start/sit decisions.
Well, here we are as Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs fans make their way to the Ceasars Superdome in New Orleans. At the same time, everyone outside of Pennsylvania and Missouri prepares for Kendrick Lamar and the Apple Music Super Bowl LIX Halftime Show. Not only is this a rematch of Super Bowl LVII in which the Chiefs defeated the Eagles 38-35 in State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, but considering the heat both teams have received for other fanbases, this feels like the rare heel versus-heel WWE Main Event. I get "Macho Man" Randy Savage versus Jake "The Snake" Roberts 1986 Intercontinental Championship type vbes.
Philadelphia returns to the Super Bowl for the second time in three years after dismantling the Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship 55-23. While the game was close for three quarters, Philadelphia pulled away in the fourth with three unanswered rushing touchdowns, as Saquon Barkley and the Eagles proved that you can still run the ball and make it to the Super Bowl.
Bah, Gawd! That's the Kansas City Chiefs Music. Patrick Mahomes and company want to make history and three-peat as Super Bowl Champions. The Chiefs have habitually played in the Super Bowl in recent years, and this marks their fifth trip to the Championship over the last six seasons after they once again eliminated Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. Kansas City is 12-0 this season in one-score contests and has won 17 consecutive one-score games.
Featured Promo: Looking for some more fantasy football action? Adopt a dynasty orphan team over at FFPC. Sign up today and get $25 off any FFPC league. Sign Up Now!They meet again 🤝#SBLIX | @PatrickMahomes | @JalenHurts pic.twitter.com/dQuy6kndlS
— NFL GameDay (@NFLGameDay) January 29, 2025
Super Bowl - Fantasy Football Must-Starts
Saquon Barkley - RB, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The irresistible force that meets the immovable object paradox will be fully displayed in Louisiana this week. Kansas City finished the regular season as the stingiest team in terms of fantasy points surrendered to the running back position, allowing 16.24 per contest.
The 1,197 rushing yards yielded were the third-fewest, behind only the Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens, while the 413 receiving yards surrendered to the position were the fourth-lowest in the NFL.
However, in the playoffs, that run defense has not been as good. Against the Bills, the Chiefs struggled to stop James Cook, who averaged 6.5 yards per carry on his way to 85 yards on the ground while adding 49 more yards on three receptions.
In the Divisional Round, Joe Mixon churned out 88 yards on the ground, averaging 4.9 yards per attempt, finishing with an even 100 total yards on the day when you factor in his two receptions.
As for Saquon Barkley, no one has had an answer for him all season, and certainly not during this Eagles playoff run. Barkley has produced 442 rushing yards in three playoff contests, with 317 coming after contact.
On his 66 carries, not only have eight of those runs gone for 15 or more yards, but five have resulted in him finding his way to the end zone. Barkley is currently averaging 147.3 yards per game and 6.7 yards per carry this postseason.
SAQUON ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!
📺: #WASvsPHI on FOX
📱: Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/26534Ls9Mx— NFL (@NFL) January 26, 2025
While the Eagles have proven they can run the ball, they need both Cam Jurgens (back) and Landon Dickerson (knee) to be near full strength, as we saw how Chris Jones and company can affect the game, especially on short-yardage plays.
Super Bowl - Fantasy Football Start' Em
A.J. Brown - WR, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs
A.J. Brown started the playoffs slowly, hauling in three passes for 24 yards on 10 targets during the Wild Card and Divisional rounds. Then, against the Commanders in the Conference Championship, Brown was targeted on eight occasions, producing 96 yards and a touchdown on six receptions.
Touchdown A.J. Brown!
📺: #WASvsPHI on FOX
📱: Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/T4cq3AFxeZ— NFL (@NFL) January 26, 2025
During the regular season, the Chiefs allowed 33.22 fantasy points per game, 15th-most, to the wide receiver position, as opposing wide receivers caught 207 of 319 intended targets for 2,359 yards and 129 touchdowns.
Last week, Mack Hollins of the Bills caught three passes for 73 yards and a touchdown against this Chiefs secondary. Even Amari Cooper had four receptions; Cooper hadn't had four receptions in a game since December 8.
If the Chiefs continue to run cover four coverage, it is worth noting that Brown averaged 0.66 fantasy points per route ran when facing that particular coverage this past season.
Jalen Hurts - WR, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Can Jalen Hurts outplay Patrick Mahomes? From a fantasy perspective, the answer is yes. Hurts's nine rushing touchdowns are the most in NFL playoff history as he surpassed Hall of Famer Steve Young last week after running the ball in on three occasions.
Going back to Super Bowl LVII, even though the Eagles lost that contest, Hurts still threw for over 300 yards and ran for another 70 yards, accounting for four Eagles touchdowns.
Teams need to play nearly perfect football against the Chiefs to win, and on that day, Hurts's costly fumble may have been the tipping point as Nick Biolton scooped up the fumble and ran in back for six. Hurts has been clean this postseason, having yet to turn the ball over while accounting for seven scores in three postseason contests thus far.
Travis Kelce- TE, Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles
We've said it before: playoff Travis Kelce is a different breed of tight end altogether. In two games, Kelce has nine receptions for 136 yards and a touchdown and is averaging 14.3 fantasy points per game. Even though the Bills held Kelce to two receptions for 19 yards last week, in Kelce's last 15 postseason contests, Kelce has 122 receptions, 1,407 receiving yards, and 14 touchdown receptions.
The Eagles have run cover three coverage 26.1% of the time this postseason while increasing their use of cover four from 19.5% in the regular season to 26.1% during the playoffs. During the regular season, Kelce averaged 0.39 fantasy points per route against cover three and 0.36 versus cover four coverage.
The Bills showed the Eagles the blueprint to containing Kelce; even so, Philadelphia has proven to be more than capable of shutting down opposing tight ends, allowing just 591 receiving yards and five touchdowns to the position this season through 17 weeks. When you add that production up, or lack thereof, that equates to 9.14 fantasy points per contest; only the Detroit Lions allowed fewer.
Dallas Goedert - TE, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs love running a cover-four defense, often forcing teams to throw underneath. Hence, slot receivers and tight ends have succeeded against this stout Chiefs defense this season.
During the regular season, the Chiefs ran cover four 19.5% of the time. Meanwhile, in the playoffs, that has increased to 26.9%, as we saw Dalton Schultz produce 63 yards, followed by Khalil Shakir's six-reception, 46-yard performance.
Entering the Super Bowl, Dallas Goedert led the Eagles in receptions (15) and receiving yards (188). In three postseason games, Goedert is averaging six targets per contest and has a target share of just over 26%. Goedert runs 44.8% of his routes from the slot, resulting in an average of 0.61 fantasy points per route run thus far, the highest rate of any player with at least 50 routes.
Dallas Goedert in this playoffs so far:
🦅 16 Receptions
🦅 206 Yards
🦅 148 Yards After the Catch
🦅 5 Receptions of 15+ Yards
🦅 0 Drops pic.twitter.com/KCoI7rAHmZ— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) January 28, 2025
This is one of the matchups, inside the matchup, that the Eagles could exploit, considering that the Chiefs allowed 14.90 fantasy points per game to the tight end position during the regular season, the fifth-most. Since Goedert returned from that knee injury in Week 18, the Eagles tight end has seen 24 targets on 82 routes. I'm not great at math, but that's 29% targets per route run rate.
Super Bowl - Fantasy Football Flex Plays
Xavier Worthy - WR, Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles
Kelce gets all the hype, but Xavier Worthy is putting on a very underrated postseason performance. Worthy is averaging 15 fantasy points per game this postseason and has produced 130 receiving yards on 11 receptions, one of which he scored on. Worthy, rather than Kelce, leads this Chiefs team in target share, accounting for 25.5% of Mahomes' targets heading into the Super Bowl.
You know the rookie earned the trust of Mahomes when his 0.143 first down per route run tops Kelce's, who has been a trusted target of Mahomes since he took over under center. Only Nico Collins and Ladd McConkey hit at a higher rate among pass catchers this postseason with 30 or more routes.
The only thing keeping Worthy from being a bonafide start is that the Eagles and Quinyon Mitchell have been tough on receivers for much of the season. The Eagles surrendered 31.01 fantasy points per game during the regular season, the seventh-fewest in the league.
Could Xavier Worthy and A.J. Brown be Super Bowl game-changers?
Both defenses struggled against WR1s this season pic.twitter.com/MaYYPs2JKZ
— FTN Fantasy (@FTNFantasy) January 29, 2025
DeVonta Smith- WR, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs
There may not be a more underrated receiver in the NFL than DeVonta Smith. Leading to the Super Bowl, all anyone is talking about is Brown, Hurts, Kelce, and Mahomes. Rarely is Smith's name mentioned, and that's a shame. During this postseason run, Smith has caught all 12 of his targets for 121 yards, recording four receptions in each contest.
We know that the Chiefs have been using primary cover three and cover four looks for much of the postseason to funnel offenses to the middle of the field. Smith, against cover cover three looks, is averaging 0.51 fantasy points per route run. Against cover four, that number improves to 0.60 fantasy points per route.
Kareem Hunt- RB, Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles
With a touchdown against the Bills, Kareem Hunt now has four touchdowns to Isiah Pacheco's 0 in games in which they have played since Pacheco returned from injury. If I am starting one back here from the Chiefs, it's the one that has the better chance of scoring, as the Eagles have been stout against the run all season.
Opening drive TD for Kareem Hunt and the @Chiefs!
📺: #BUFvsKC on CBS
📱: Stream on @NFLPlus and Paramount+ pic.twitter.com/YILYnN78VH— NFL (@NFL) January 26, 2025
Hunt moves into flex play based on the Eagles' postseason performance against the position. Against the Packers, Josh Jacobs finished with 121 total yards and a touchdown, averaging 4.5 yards per carry.
Kyren Williams also found success on the ground, churning out 106 yards on 19 attempts. Those were elite options at the running back position. In the NFC Championship, Philadelphia held Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler 51 rushing yards on 19 carries.
While Hunt is no longer among the elite, he could still perform when his name is called on Sunday.
Super Bowl - Fantasy Football Sit' Em
Isiah Pacheco - RB, Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles
Another day, another dud. Against the Bills in the AFC Conference Championship, Pacheco was the fourth-leading rusher…on his team. Pacheco's lowly five carries resulted in just 12 rushing yards and a 2.6-yard per-carry average. Kansas City scored three rushing touchdowns; two went to Mahomes, and the other went to Hunt.
I could copy and paste last week's notes and update the previous week's numbers. Since Pacheco returned to action, we now have seven games' worth of information to sample, and it's less than desirable. In those seven contests, Pacheco had 59 rushing attempts, producing 205 yards on the ground, which worked out to 2.9 yards per attempt.
8. Isiah Pacheco's usage has decreased now in 5 consecutive games.
He has carry shares of 58% > 38% > 33% > 30% > 24% > 15%.
Last week Pacheco had just 4 carries to Hunt’s 17 and since his injury, Pacheco is averaging just 3.47 yards per carry to Hunt’s 3.6.
— Connor Allen (@ConnorAllenNFL) January 29, 2025
Only the Chiefs allowed fewer fantasy points per game this past season than the Eagles, who allowed just 16.36 fantasy points per contest.
Patrick Mahomes - QB, Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles
The AFC Championship game marked the first time since Week 12 that the Chiefs mustered 30 or more points in a contest. Against the Bills, Mahomes looked good throwing for 245 yards while hooking up with Worthy on the Chiefs' lone passing touchdowns. Mahomes made his money on the ground, rushing for 43 yards and scores.
While Jalen Hurts has to deal with Chris Jones, Mahomes will have his work cut out as he stares down Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith Jr., and the rest of the Eagles' pass rush. During the regular season, Philadelphia allowed just 14.47 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
In three postseason contests, the Eagles duo of Carter and Smith has produced six sacks, six tackles for loss, two forced fumbles, five hurries, and 14 quarterback pressures. Smith, in particular, has been coming in hot, with 34 pressures in his last nine games, that's 3.8 per contest.
Marquise Brown- WR, Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles
Marquise Brown is a sit, but he is also the player I believe could flip the script during the Super Bowl. Thus far in the postseason, Brown has just three receptions on seven targets, accounting for 35 receiving yards. While that has been more productive than, say, DeAndre Hopkins, it's been less production than the Chiefs have gotten out of JuJu Smith-Schuster.
With all this coverage talk, let's consider what Brown can do for you. Against cover three, he's been good this season, averaging 0.67 fantasy points per route. However, he's been a cheat code when facing cover-four coverage, averaging a league-best 1.30 fantasy points per route run. If the Eagles deploy that coverage as they have been this postseason, then Brown has an opportunity to play a prominent role for the Chiefs.
DeAndre Hopkins - WR, Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles
What can we say, Hopkins has been targeted just three times in two postseason contests. His 11 receiving yards are fewer than Pacheco, Noah Gray, and Samaje Perine. Chris Jones doesn't have a reception or interception, and he has only caught one fewer ball than Hopkins.
At this point, you may be forced to start Hopkins in those one-and-done contests, but I have more confidence in Smith-Schuster, and that's saying something.
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