Top Starting Pitcher Prospects: Fantasy Baseball Sleepers and Busts for 2026

March 15, 2026

Dan's top starting pitcher fantasy baseball prospect sleepers, busts for 2026 redraft leagues. He recommends MLB rookie pitchers to draft and avoid in drafts.

Every year, we see another crop of highly-rated pitching prospects attempt to break into the big leagues. Most of them don't make the initial roster out of spring training, but that doesn't prevent them from having an impact on fantasy baseball teams when they finally do crack the rotation.

You won't find pitchers such as Nolan McLean, Bubba Chandler, or Trey Yesavage in this article, however, as those pitchers have already nailed down rotation spots going into this year and are being drafted in the middle rounds.

Instead, I'll be focusing on prospects with little to no big-league experience who can be drafted much later, meaning some of them could be potential value picks if they can pitch up to their abilities in the majors this season. Whether you are drafting these pitchers now or sticking them on your watch list to start the season, here are some of the top pitching prospects in Major League Baseball and how I think you should approach them this season. All ADP data is courtesy of NFBC drafts as of the last two weeks.

Connelly Early, Boston Red Sox

ADP: 287.3

The Red Sox have two young lefties who should be in their rotation at some point this season with Connelly Early and Payton Tolle (more on him in a bit). But it's looking like they're pretty likely to break camp with Johan Oviedo as their fifth starter, sending both Early and Tolle back to Triple-A for some additional seasoning.

Early had a cup of coffee with Boston last fall and showed off his impressive strikeout prowess by mowing down 36% of the hitters he faced, while walking only 5%. It was only 19 innings across four starts, but Early's minor league strikeout numbers have been equally impressive as he's topped a 30% strikeout rate in every season and at every level.

Connelly Early, K'ing the Side in the 2nd. pic.twitter.com/1v1mu5q1tx

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 10, 2025

Unlike fellow lefty Tolle, who is a flamethrower, Early tops out around 94 mph with his heater. However, he has a deep arsenal at his disposal, throwing six different pitches last season.

His strikeouts haven't been there so far this spring (just a 18% K%), but he's pitched to a 2.25 ERA and 1.08 WHIP across 12 innings. I think he's worth drafting in redraft leagues as his return to the big league rotation feels imminent. But his ADP does feel a bit high to me for a guy who could spend a few months in the minors, so keep that in mind and make sure your rotation is stocked with pitchers who are ready to make an impact on day one before drafting Early or any of the other stash candidates in this article.

Verdict: Stash, but don't reach for him too "early."

Andrew Painter, Philadelphia Phillies

ADP: 289

The Phillies top pitching prospect is set to make his MLB debut and begin the year in the rotation. Painter was once one of the top prospects in all of baseball, but Tommy John surgery in 2023 forced him to miss all of the 2023 and 2024 seasons. He was able to return to action last year and tossed 106 innings at Triple-A, but wasn't nearly as dominant as he was before the injury, posting a 5.40 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, and 23.4% K%.

We usually expect pitchers to take a few years to return to form, but Painter is going to have to hit the ground running at the big league level without an opportunity for any more tune-ups at the minor league level.

His results this spring, going into Thursday's start against Baltimore, were a mixed bag. He had struck out only 6% of the hitters he faced, but was getting outs and keeping runners off base. We saw more whiffs (11) in Thursday's start (4 strikeouts), and good velocity on the fastball (97 mph). But he finally got hit pretty hard, too, allowing a home run and four other batted balls with over a 95 mph exit velocity.

I'm not saying he won't have a solid rookie season, but I am out on Painter this year as his ADP has increased in recent weeks. It feels like the Phillies are rushing him back and trying to make up for lost time (he's still only going to be 23 next month), and I think he could probably use some more seasoning at Triple-A.

He may take some lumps this year and be asked to pitch through it, rather than be sent down.

Verdict: Fade Painter, he's not showing signs of being the impact pitcher that he was once considered.

Robby Snelling, Miami Marlins

ADP: 334

It's looking very likely that Snelling will start the year at Triple-A, making him a high-risk/high-reward target in this ADP range, since you can draft some other starting pitchers right around here that are guaranteed a spot in their team's rotation on Opening Day.

But Snelling just might be worth it. After Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez, the Marlins' rotation is made up of Chris Paddack, Max Meyer, and Braxton Garrett. All three of them have had only moderate success in the big leagues, and the Marlins, who are going to be more likely to be focused on player development than contending for a playoff spot, have no reason to prioritize any of them over their top prospect Snelling.

With Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers gone, get ready to see Robby Snelling early in the 2026 season and probably Thomas White mid-season.

In my pitching prospect rankings, White is in my Top-5 and Snelling is in my Top-15.

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) January 14, 2026

Snelling is considered by many as the top left-handed pitching prospect in baseball, and he absolutely looked the part last year when he posted a 30% K%, 7% BB%, and 2.51 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A. He posted a 15% SwStr% in 63 innings at Triple-A and doesn't have much more to prove at this point. This spring, his fastball velocity is up a full tick on the gun at 95, and he's struck out 33% of the hitters that he's faced.

Snelling is a shrewd stash in any format. I know we've played this game before with Chandler, but Miami would be foolish to keep him down in the minors for much more than a month or two, giving him well over half a season to make an impact for fantasy teams.

Verdict: Stash, he's a potentially dynamic starting pitcher on a team that has no reason not to give him a serious audition this year.

Payton Tolle, Boston Red Sox

ADP: 560.8

The last time I checked, 6-foot-6 lefties who average 97 on their four-seam fastball don't grow on trees, so it's easy to see why Boston fans and fantasy managers are excited about Tolle's potential. He had a brief appearance in Boston last season, tossing 16 innings and racking up a 6.06 ERA.

This spring, he's been as good as advertised with a 29% K% and only a 3.5% BB%, touching 99-100 on the gun with his heater.

Payton Tolle, 100.4 mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/qriwtEox1S

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 5, 2026

The knock on him coming into this year was that he was too reliant on the heater, throwing it over 60% of the time last year. However, this spring, he's brought that fastball usage down to around 40%, while increasing his cutter usage and adding a sinker, too.

He's still more of a "thrower" than a "pitcher," but it's clear that the 23-year-old isn't that far away from being MLB-ready. The big issue is that he's blocked by his own teammate, Early, who could get the call first. I'd love to see them both up in Boston sooner than later, but the Red Sox won't force the issue unless there are injuries or some really bad performances by guys like Oviedo or Brayan Bello.

Verdict: Stash in deeper formats, leave him on the wire in standard formats. But be ready to snag him when the call comes (which it probably should at some point this season).

Jonah Tong, New York Mets

ADP: 577

Tong was already sent down to minor league camp by the Mets after allowing three earned runs in his only spring start, covering 2 2/3 innings. However, Tong is still regarded as a top-five prospect in this year's class, and it still feels quite likely that he'll be back up pitching for the Mets at some point this season.

He made five starts for New York last season, but was hit pretty hard, finishing with a 7.71 ERA (4.96 xERA). He did flash some strikeout potential, whiffing 22 hitters over 18 frames, and has put up some huge strikeout numbers at each stop in the minors.

Tong has one of the highest arm slots you will see from a pitcher, and it gives his four-seam fastball nearly 20 inches of induced vertical break. His curveball also has elite vertical movement, dropping nearly 63 inches by the time it hits the plate. However, he doesn't have much horizontal movement, and his changeup was hit hard last year.

It's clear he still has some work to do to keep MLB hitters off balance.

Verdict: Tong is a stash in only the deepest of leagues. He's likely to spend more time at Triple-A than in the majors this year.

Thomas White, Miami Marlins

ADP: 627

The Marlins and Red Sox have a monopoly on the best left-handed pitching prospects, with a combined four of the top eight in all of baseball. Snelling might get his chance before White based on having more minor league experience, but White may have the most upside of anyone in this article!

Thomas White dominated again on Saturday, showing why he's the #1 LHP prospect in the game right now.

Saturday: 6 IP, H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K
Last 11 GS: 45.2 IP, 1.77 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 9.3% BB, 39.9% K, .171 BAA#MarlinsBeisbol pic.twitter.com/vvgXGu4kCF

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) August 10, 2025

White has posted some ridiculous strikeout rates in the minors, and the only thing that might be holding him back at this point is his command, as walks have been a bit of an issue. We see that with young pitchers quite often, so it's nothing new here. But if White can show some control at Triple-A this season (he has only nine innings of experience at that level) over the first few months, he just might force the Marlins to bring him up this summer.

The window here might be fairly short, depending on when he gets up to the big leagues, but White has a chance to make as big an impact as any pitching prospect!

Verdict: Stash in deep leagues. I think he has a better chance of making an impact at the big league level than someone like Tong, even if it's only for the final few months.

Noah Schultz, Chicago White Sox

ADP: 723

We have a lot of lefties on this list, but none of them can compete with Schultz's size as the 22-year-old stands at 6-foot-10 and has drawn comparisons to a young Randy Johnson. He's starting to fill out that frame, though, as he's added 25-30 pounds over the last year

Schultz has the benefit of playing for a rebuilding team, which could help him get to the majors sooner, but he also has only 16 innings of experience at Triple-A and missed some time last year with injuries. Chicago doesn't need to rush him along and could easily let him get most of his work in at the minor league level before giving him a brief audition in the late summer months.

He did look good in a brief spring training stint (four innings), striking out 31% of the hitters he faced without issuing a walk. He sits at 95 mph with his heater, but the scouting report suggests that he still needs to improve his secondary pitches (cutter, slider, changeup).

He's a fascinating prospect, especially with his freakishly large frame and solid command. But the odds of him having an impact this season seem low. But you never know, at least keep an eye on his progress and be ready to pounce on him on the wire if Chicago happens to bring him up mid-season.

Verdict: He's a stash in only the deepest of leagues. We might see him at some point this season, but it could be very late in the year, or even 2027, until he makes his debut.

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