RADIO
Michael Florio's fantasy football sneaky starts, pivot plays, and post-waiver waiver pickups for Week 15 of 2024. Start 'em as under-the-radar fantasy sleepers.
If you are reading this, congratulations! That likely means you made the fantasy playoffs unless you just enjoy reading about sneaky starts after you’re eliminated. Making the fantasy playoffs is a huge accomplishment and doing so consistently is the biggest sign of skill in this game.
But in the infamous words of the late, great Kobe Bryant, “job’s not finished.” We do not play simply to make the fantasy playoffs. We play to win the league. We play to get bragging rights over our friends and family for the next year. We play because flags (or trophies) fly forever.
The playoffs can sometimes be a crapshoot, but all you can do is put the strongest lineup out there weekly.
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Sneaky Starts and Pivot Options
If you need a QB…
Aaron Rodgers threw for 300 yards last week for the first time in 35 games. He has multiple passing touchdowns in three of his last four. This, though, is all about the matchup. The Jaguars have allowed the second-most passing yards and fantasy PPG to QBs. Also, Rodgers if you are reading this -- I am a real person!
I promise I’m legit @PatMcAfeeShow @AaronRodgers12! pic.twitter.com/72BjpKe4QB
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) December 10, 2024
Jameis Winston has thrown six touchdowns in his last two games, multiples in three of his last four games, and topped 26 fantasy points in two of the last four games. The floor is somewhere around 13 to 15 fantasy points, but the ceiling is very high. The Chiefs have allowed the sixth-most passing yards.
Two QB Leagues: In this format, any QB that is starting is in play. The one I like the most is Tommy DeVito. We have seen him have some fantasy success in the past and has a matchup against the Ravens, who have allowed the most passing yards and fourth-most fantasy PPG this season. The Saints have not named a starter yet, but it is between Jake Haener and Spencer Rattler. If all else fails, Desmond Ridder could be in play this week against the Falcons, who have allowed the most passing TDs this season.
If you need an RB…
Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis would both be in play if Breece Hall sits this week. Last week, Allen played 56 percent of the snaps, while Davis played 52 percent. They each saw 16 opportunities, splitting both carries and targets. Davis scored the TD, but Allen is the more explosive option. They get the Jags this week, who have allowed the second-most fantasy PPG to RBs. While I prefer Allen, both of the Jets RBs are in play in this matchup.
Sincere McCormick is the Raiders starting RB moving forward, according to head coach Antonio Pierce. Not only that, but he said Alexander Mattison being inactive last week was a “numbers game,” meaning that McCormick is firmly ahead of him. Last week, he played about 60 percent of the snaps. He has averaged 5.5 yards per carry in his last three and his touches have increased in every game. He has a fantastic schedule beyond this week as well. He is a strong pivot option for those in need.
#Raiders HC Antonio Pierce on whether Sincere McCormick is RB1 when Alexander Mattison returns:
“Yep. He’s deserved it. Last week, he was running his tail off. So, keep running it, keep pushing those numbers up, see if we can get him to 100.”
Pierce has an 80% reliability… pic.twitter.com/J8fnJNOvIm
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) December 11, 2024
Another week, another 49ers RB was down due to injury. That could potentially leave Patrick Taylor Jr., Israel Abanikanda, and Ke'Shawn Vaughn as the healthy backs this week. I believe Taylor will get the first crack since he knows the system best, but Abanikanda is the upside play. This could easily be a hot-hand approach, and as the most explosive runner, he brings the most upside if that was how it played out. There are risks with all of them, but the upside is there in a Kyle Shanahan-run system.
Tank Bigsby outcarried Travis Etienne Jr. last week, 18 to four. He ran 10 routes to Etienne’s 15. In total, Bigsby played 52 percent of the snaps last week. He has stolen the job and is the clear lead runner for the Jaguars. While he is more floor than upside, this is a week where you have to imagine the Jags want to establish the run and not have to throw against the Jets secondary.
If you need a WR…
Not sure if they qualify as sleepers, but some receivers you may not normally start but absolutely should be this week are Khalil Shakir, Calvin Ridley, and Jakobi Meyers.
Shakir faces the Lions, who not only are top five in yards and fantasy points allowed to WRs, but they have allowed by far the most production to slot receivers. Ridley had 12 targets last week and his 57 percent first read share led the NFL, per Fantasy Points Data. Plus, the Titans likely have to air it out against a questionable Bengals secondary. And Meyers just may be the most underrated WR in fantasy football. He has averaged 16 fantasy PPG since Week 3 and has 10 or more targets in three straight and four of his last five. Even with QB concerns, he is a player you can start against the Falcons, who have allowed the second-most fantasy PPG to WRs.
Adam Thielen has seen double-digit targets in each of his last two games. In those two, he has had at least 99 receiving yards and 19 fantasy points. He is the clear top target for a resurgent Bryce Young and it has translated to fantasy success for Thielen. He faces the Cowboys, who are in the top 10 in yards and touchdowns allowed to receivers this season. He brings WR1 upside.
Adam Thielen clearly getting a lot of the designed targets right now, and he looks fresh.
+ Out and up
+ Fake screen and release
+ Cover 1 first read target
+ 3rd-and-13 comeback (great ball)
+ Cover 1 first read target pic.twitter.com/dmqJVn5vzK— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) December 10, 2024
Cedric Tillman returned to practice this week, so he has a shot to return to game action as well. He has been replaced by Jerry Jeudy as the apple of Jameis Winston’s eye, but Tillman has topped 18 fantasy points in three of his last four full games. Elijah Moore has been up and down but he does have eight-plus targets in four of his last six games. He’s topped 16 fantasy points in half. Now, they play the Chiefs, who have allowed the third-most yards to receivers in the last month.
Rome Odunze caught two touchdowns last week, showing his upside. He has been very up and down, and while ideally, you would not have to start him, if you are diving deeper, the ceiling keeps him in play. The Vikings have allowed the catches, receiving yards, and fantasy PPG to receivers. They have allowed the seventh-most touchdowns. He is an upside swing for those in need.
If you need a TE…
Hunter Henry has averaged 7.3 targets, 5.3 catches, 54 yards, and 11.4 fantasy points per game with Drake Maye this season. To put that into perspective, only seven tight ends have averaged more than that this season -- and one is Taysom Hill, who is out for the season. There are not many tight ends bringing more consistent volume and production. In the fantasy playoffs, you want some security at the volatile tight-end position.
Hunter Henry on Drake Maye: I feel like we've built a connection... I'm excited for that and the future.
— Mark Daniels (@ByMarkDaniels) December 11, 2024
Pat Freiermuth has caught a touchdown and topped 13 fantasy points in two straight games. He has averaged 58 yards per game in his last three, which is an uptick from earlier in the season. This week, the Steelers face a tough Eagles secondary that could make life difficult on the Steelers receivers, who are without George Pickens. He could see added volume in a game where the Steelers could have to throw more than usual.
Zach Ertz was on bye last week but do not overlook that he has scored over 12 fantasy points in three straight games. He has topped double digits in six of his last eight games. The floor is safe for Ertz but we have been seeing bigger numbers in the double digits. He faces the Saints, who are middle of the pack against tight ends but have allowed a lot of points and yards this season.
Grant Calcaterra is in play for those of you who need to dive a bit deeper this week. He has four games this season with 90-plus percent of the snaps played and he scored eight fantasy points at a minimum in each. He also found paydirt last week. Before his injury, Dallas Goedert was seeing a lot of usage in the red zone/end zone and some of that will naturally shift to Calcaterra. The floor is low, but he could catch a touchdown.
Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio.
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